Nov 6: E-Stories
Day620 RUattacks Sumy Dnipro Kherson Avdiivka IAEA BehindLines InRussia Nestle Allies EU-UA US Israel Trump Nukes Vulin Hamas A&P Junisbai UKDef Zelensky UAWorld Tokariuk Cuda Davis
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Nov 4: Russia attacked Ukraine with Iskander-K missiles. As a result of air defense, 3 missiles were shot down. It is not mentioned how much were launched in the first place.
Russian forces shelled 6 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces shelled six communities in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast on Nov. 4, causing over 46 explosions, the Sumy military administration reported. A Russian missile attack in the Korabel district of Kherson killed an 82-year-old woman. Russian troops attack 19 villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, damaging infrastructure.
Russian forces hit infrastructure facility in Dnipro. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak reported explosions in Dnipro on Nov. 4, adding that Russian forces had targeted an infrastructure facility.
Russian attacks injure 15 over past day. Russian forces carried out attacks on at least eight of Ukraine's oblasts over the past day, injuring at least 15 people, local officials reported early on Nov. 4.
Russian forces could have killed more than 20 Ukrainian troops at award ceremony. Russian forces could have killed more than 20 Ukrainian soldiers who were gathered in a front-line village in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for an award ceremony, according to preliminary information, online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing a source in the Interior Ministry.
Ukraine’s newly appointed head of the defence industry says he is working tirelessly to ramp up local arms production and wants to turn the country into a weapons production hub for the west.
Oleksandr Kamysyhin, the minister for strategic industries of Ukraine, said that Russia’s invasion of his country and the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East have highlighted the need for countries to spend on their defence systems.
“We’re really focusing on making Ukraine the arsenal of the free world,” Kamyshin told the Associated Press last night. “We are focused on producing all types of weapons and ammunition, and we show that we can test it on the battlefield and make it better during the war. That’s something we can contribute to the free world, because as you see, defence industry is becoming more and more important globally.”
President Zelensky on Meet the Press on Sunday
Combat Situation Update
Russian forces are now focused on capturing Avdiivka’s coking plant, according to the town’s mayor Vitaliy Barabash. He said audio transmission intercepts had revealed that Moscow was now seeking to secure it. But UK intelligence suggests that Russia have incurred heavy losses in its assault on the Donbas town.
Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Mykola Oleschuk, confirmed the attack on a shipyard in occupied Kerch, and said it was carried out by SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles. He added that 'one of the most modern ships of the Russian Navy was stationed there. A Kalibr cruise missile carrier (which Askold is).'
"After the attack in Kerch, Russia took an 'operational pause'. They disperse personnel. Perhaps now they will decide how to use other bases in general, given that Sevastopol will never be a safe base for the Russians. That's why there is such a lull now," Navy Spokesman Pletenchuk said.
Explosions heard in Dnipro. Several explosions were heard in Dnipro at around 5 p.m. local time on Nov. 4, according to the Kyiv Independent's source on the ground. Earlier, the Air Force warned about the threat of Russia using ballistic weaponry against Ukraine's eastern regions.
Ukraine destroys Russian electronic warfare system. Ukrainian forces have destroyed a Russian "Pole-21" electronic warfare system, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria Group fighting on the southern front lines, reported on Nov. 5. Tarnavskyi did not provide further details but said that the system was "designed to suppress satellite navigation channels."
"Ukraine is preparing for large-scale kamikaze drone attacks on Russia. We intend to capitalize on the experience we have accumulated and use drones to deliver a blow to them when fighting will be much more static," Brigadier General Serhii Baranov said.
Zelensky appoints new head of Special Operations Forces. President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed Brigadier General Viktor Khorenko from his role as the commander of the Special Operations Forces (SOF), according to a presidential decree published online on Nov. 3.
Kuleba: Zelensky considering whether to hold elections on schedule. President Volodymyr Zelensky is considering holding elections as scheduled in the spring of 2024, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said during a briefing on Nov. 3. "We are not closing this page. The president of Ukraine is considering and weighing the different pros and cons," Kuleba said.
The Russian military has reported a successful test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile designed to carry nuclear warheads from a new nuclear submarine. The defence ministry said in a statement that the Imperator Alexander III strategic missile cruiser fired the Bulava missile from an underwater position in Russia’s northern White Sea, and hit a target in the far-eastern region of Kamchatka.
Behind the Lines
IAEA's expert team conducts rotation at occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. This week, a new team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) crossed the front line to replace their counterparts tasked with monitoring nuclear safety and security at Ukraine's ZNPP.
Russian courts in Crimea have issued 472 verdicts for 'discrediting' Russian army since start of full-scale invasion. Russian-installed courts in occupied Crimea have issued 472 rulings on "discrediting" the Russian military since the start of the full-scale invasion, Krym.Realii, a project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, reported on Nov. 3.
Defense Ministry to shorten process of domestic weapons reaching the front. The Defense Ministry will implement changes to the testing process required for domestically produced weapons, allowing them to reach the front faster, the ministry announced on Nov. 3.
Moldova's security chief says Russia spent $55 million on destabilization campaign. Russia has spent over a billion Moldovan lei ($55.45 million) on a campaign to destabilize the country, according to Alexandru Musteata, the head of Moldova's Information and Security Service on Nov. 3.
Dagestani Riots up-date: One of the main vectors of misinformation about “refugees from Israel” that led to the anti-Semitic riot at the Makhachkala airport on October 29 was a Telegram channel called Morning Dagestan. The channel was originally launched by former Russian State Duma deputy Ilya Ponomarev, who left Russia in 2014 and is an active supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Moscow’s invasion.
Monique: Note that Russian propaganda channels had said that the anti-Semitic riots could be attributed to a Ukrainian plot. They have used Ponomarev’s past work with the channel to link the riots to Ukraine. Ponomarev moved to the States and is no longer affiliated with the channel.
Meanwhile in Russia
Military intelligence: Russia fails nuclear-capable ballistic missile tests. Russia recently carried out unsuccessful tests of its Yars and Bulava nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, pointing to serious issues with Moscow's nuclear weapons delivery capabilities, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on Nov. 4. During an RS-24 Yars missile launch test on Nov. 1, the projectile launched from a cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk Oblast toward Kamchatka went off course, the HUR said.
Alex Kokcharov: In Russia, Kremlin’s propaganda released a short animation showing a Russian nuclear strike on the US, with devastation of American cities including San Francisco and New York City. Kremlin’s wet dreams about the world they want to live in.
The Moscow Times: The Kremlin fired the director of TASS, Sergey Mikhailov, accused of having told too much about Prigozhin's coup Alexei Gromov, the first deputy head of the presidential administration in charge of the media, “was simply furious”.
SBU charges Russian Orthodox Church's over promoting Kremlin's aggression. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has charged Moscow Patriarch Kirill (Vladimir Gundyayev) with promoting Russia's aggression and undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity, the SBU announced on Nov. 4.
Julia Davis: “Meanwhile in Russia: host Roman Babayan says that by continually pledging to surrender part of Ukraine to Russia, Vivek Ramaswamy is "sending signals to Moscow," asking the Kremlin to help him get elected.”
Russia has unveiled a sprawling exposition highlighting the nation’s accomplishments, which will run through the months leading to the presidential election in which Putin is widely expected to seek a new term.
The event is held at VDNKh, the vast exposition grounds in northern Moscow that was established by Josef Stalin and is renowned for its collection of elaborate Soviet Gothic-style pavilions. The setting plays to many Russians’ nostalgia for the Soviet era and echoes Putin’s drive to restore Russia as a superpower.
Thematically, the exposition focuses on Russia as a country of diverse ethnic groups and cultures unified by a sense of national purpose. It includes displays from each of Russia‘s regions, as well as from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed, along with an array of presentations on industry, education and technology will be on offer.
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov has again sought to dispel the “myths” about Vladimir Putin’s “doubles”.
“We have only one Putin,” he said today at a new national exposition. “Now the ‘experts’ are guessing – there are three or four of them and who we now see every day – this morning they laid [flowers] at the [monument] of Minin and Pozharsky – this is the third or fourth “double”, it’s not clear.”
Allied Support
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was in Ukraine on Saturday, as the EU tries to reassure the Ukrainian people of the bloc’s support and ahead of key report on Kyiv’s accession aspirations. “I’m here to discuss Ukraine’s accession path to the EU,” von der Leyen said on X from Kyiv. “And how we will continue to make Russia pay for its war of aggression.” She added that Ukraine has made “excellent progress” towards EU accession, days ahead of a key report on Kyiv’s membership bid.
I must say you have made excellent progress. I know you are in the process of completing outstanding reforms. If this happens and, I am confident, Ukraine can reach its ambitious goal of moving to the next stage in the accession process.
President Zelensky has reaffirmed his stance that this is not the time to negotiate with Russia, and he also denied that any western leaders were pressuring him to do so. (Monique: this is in response to the articles that have appeared in media outlets claiming that undisclosed ‘sources’ claim he is being pressured by various leaders.
“We have difficulties and different opinions, but we have no right to give up. Because what is the alternative? If we give away a third of our country, nothing will end. We know what a frozen conflict is,” Zelensky said, denying that Ukraine was at a “stalemate” in defending itself against Russia.
"Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress will support President Joe Biden's request for $106 billion, which includes funding for aid to Ukraine and Israel. We believe there is bipartisan support," press secretary of the White House, Karin Jean-Pierre said.
Ukrainian communities received more than 370 school buses thanks to the 'School Buses for Ukraine' solidarity program launched in 2022 by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska.
The Romanian government will allocate up to €50 million to subsidise the interest Ukraine owes on the €18 billion loan provided by the European Union in December 2022
Italian defense minister: 'Time not yet ripe' for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks. Italy's Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told the Quotidiano Nazionale newspaper on Nov. 4 that the time has not yet come for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations on a political level.
"Support for Kyiv from the West and the EU is unchanged. Ukraine is fighting for the protection of its sovereignty, as well as for the observance of international law," Crosetto said in the interview.
"It is obvious that a lasting peace cannot be based on military actions alone. A political 'ceasefire' is needed. The time is not yet ripe for that," he commented.
Around the World
NYT: Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Baghdad after a similarly unannounced trip to the West Bank earlier today. Mr. Blinken made the visits during a trip through the Middle East as he tries to contain the fallout from Israel’s war against Hamas.
WSJ: U.S. intelligence shows Wagner Group may transfer anti-aircraft system to Hezbollah. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports that U.S. intelligence indicates Wagner Group may transfer the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile system (NATO classification SA-22) to Hezbollah.
According to one American official, the U.S. authorities have not been able to confirm that Wagner Group has transferred the anti-aircraft system to Hezbollah. Washington continues to monitor reports on this matter, which, according to sources, are causing serious concern. The WSJ notes that Wagner Group mercenaries operate in Syria, as do Hezbollah militants.
“Today, Russia contact us [Hamas], in a daily basis, the Chinese sent envoy to Doha, and China and Russia met with the leaders of Hamas. A Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow, and soon, a delegation will travel to Beijing.”
There were numerous protest movements that took to the streets this weekend: London, NYC, Toronto, Berlin, Rome. Mixed in with the Palestinians flags, there were also flags of the IS terrorist group. This clip is from Berlin.
Zelensky expected to visit Israel early next week. The arrangements for President Volodymyr Zelensky's upcoming visit to Israel next week are in an advanced stage, the Times of Israel reported citing Channel 12 news reports.
CNN: Judge in Trump fraud trial expands gag order to Trump’s attorneys after continued lengthy discussions about the judge’s communications with his law clerk during court this week. In a written order Friday, Judge Arthur Engoron prohibited Trump’s attorneys from making any further comments about confidential communications between the judge and his staff inside or outside of the courtroom.
The Guardian- What’s happening in Serbia: Vulin
Serbia’s intelligence chief, who has fostered closer ties with Russia and is under sanctions by the US, resigned on Friday after less than a year in the post, saying he wanted to avoid possible further embargoes against the Balkan nation.
In July, the US imposed sanctions on Aleksandar Vulin, accusing him of involvement in illegal arms shipments, drug trafficking and misuse of public office. The US treasury department’s office of foreign assets control said that Vulin used his public authority to help a US-sanctioned Serbian arms dealer move illegal arms shipments across Serbia’s borders. Vulin is also accused of involvement in a drug trafficking ring, according to US authorities.
Vulin became the director of Serbia’s intelligence agency BIA in December 2022. The close associate of populist Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić had previously served as both the army and police chief, reports AP.
Vulin is known for advocating close ties with Russia instead of the West, and promoting the concept of a “Serbian World” — a carbon copy of the “Russian World” advocated by President Vladimir Putin — that would be made up of all ethnic Serbs living in neighboring states.
Vučić has said the real reason why Vulin has faced US sanctions is his position toward Russia and not corruption allegations.
The US and the EU are looking for my head as a precondition for not imposing sanctions on Serbia. I will not allow myself to be the cause of blackmail and pressure on Serbia and the Serbian world. That is why I submit my irrevocable resignation.
My resignation will not change the policy of the USA and the EU towards Serbia, but it will slow down new demands and blackmail,” Vulin said, adding that he won’t stop believing in “the inevitability of the unification of Serbs and the creation of a Serbian world.
In August 2022, Vulin visited Moscow in a rare visit by a European government official to the Russian capital during the war in Ukraine. The trip underscored Belgrade’s refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Programming note…
RUSI Ep 3: Hamas Financing
Before 7 October 2023, the terrorist threat posed by Hamas was largely clouded by preoccupation with geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine. But not anymore. Hamas’s coordinated attacks on Israel and the resultant conflict has made the terror group’s threat and its financing unavoidable.
Host Stephen Reimer unpacks the key issues and debunks some common myths at the heart of the Hamas financing story with Jessica Davis of Insight Threat Intelligence and Matthew Levitt of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.