Oct 1: Sunday Stories
Day584 RUattacks Zapo Vinnytsya BabynYar ROM Danilov Alfyorov Cuba RUdom Oil Mardan CombatSit BehindLines Allies Crimea Kherson Vucic CN Milley A&P Giles Danilov Davis ChathamH Cepa ClintonInst
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks in Ukraine kill 6, injure 13. Russian multi-weapon attacks against Ukraine killed six civilians and wounded another 13 over the past 24 hours, regional authorities reported on Sept.29.
Authorities in the western Ukrainian region of Vinnytsya ordered an evacuation early on Saturday, saying an infrastructure site had been struck in a Russian attack, Reuters reports. It is not a general evacuation of the region.
Missile strike injures five, damages infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia. Five people were injured on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia as the result of a Russian missile attack that also damaged five homes and infrastructure on Sept. 30, according to the regional military administration.
Remembering Babyn Yar and Teacher’s Day: I usually include a picture of the destruction from the day before by the Russian forces. Today I chose a message of hope brought to you by Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy.
He reminds us of the murder of 33,771 Jews, Roma and Ukrainians at the ravine, Babyn Yar, at the hands of the Nazi forces on 29 and 30 September 1941. It’s truly difficult to imagine the scale of death in just this short period of time. In total during the Nazi occupation, 100,000 to 150,000 people were killed there.
I could relate to the second part of his message: he honours Ukraine’s teachers and the education they provide to the younger generations, and its importance. He reminds us all of the values we believe and strive to follow. When dealing with violence on a micro or macro level, my students often say to my rants: “but this is the way the world is.” It doesn’t have to be. I hope I can get that message across with the new students I’ll be greeting on Monday morning.
Nato member Romania said on Saturday its airspace may have been violated during overnight drone attacks by Russia on infrastructure in neighbouring Ukraine. The Defence Ministry said no objects had fallen on Romanian territory.
“Following the detection of groups of drones heading towards Ukrainian territory near the Romanian border,” residents in the Tulcea and Galati municipalities were alerted, the defence ministry said in a statement. “The radar surveillance system ... indicated possible unauthorised entry into national airspace, with a signal detected on a route towards the municipality of Galati.”
Noel Reports: Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov showed how the first days of the invasion looked like in terms of aerial attacks on Ukraine.
Combat Situation Update…
President Zelenskyy: "We are creating the world's first fleet of sea drones. We also started the production of guns and ammunition according to NATO standards," Zelenskyy said.
General outlook:
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have recaptured Robotyne in the Orikhiv region of southern Ukraine, also taking back Klishchiivka and Andriivka just south of Bakhmut. The Russian forces are trying to get these areas back but are failing.
Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in near rear areas in the Kupyansk direction.
The Ukrainian forces are knocking out Russian communications infrastructure, command posts, and other logistics in the occupied territory and Crimea: for example, a few days ago, Ukrainian forces destroyed an ammo depot concealed at Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast, over 130 kilometers from the frontline, behind Russian troops.
A substation in Pogar, Bryansk region was targeted. Locals wrote about an explosion and fire in this area. According to them, the electricity also went out in the settlement.
Russia attacked Ukraine with Shahed-drones during the night of Sept 30. In total 30 out of 40 drones were shot down in the Odesa, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia regions.
Russian soldier working with intelligence defects to Ukrainian forces. A Russian soldier who had been working with Ukraine's Military Intelligence (HUR) has defected to Ukrainian forces, the military intelligence said on Sept. 30. The soldier, Daniil Alfyorov, had been working with Ukrainian intelligence since July and had successfully convinced 11 other Russian soldiers to defect to the Ukrainian side, Andriy Yusov, a HUR spokesman, said.
Eight Cubans recruited by Russia for its war against Ukraine spoke up about the recruitment process that is believed to have already engaged at least 140 Cuban nationals, according to RFE/RL, which has been monitoring the situation, Ukrinform reports. In the summer of 2023, the said Cubans were flown to Moscow, and after signing the contracts, they were assigned to the Tula-based 106th Airborne Assault Division. According to the interlocutors of the publication, there are about 140 Cubans remaining there. One of the recruited men, Fidel Hernandez, explained that Shkunov initially offered him "a good job in construction site." Later, Shkunov enquired if the Cuban considered joining the Russian army.
Behind the Lines…
ISW: Russian occupation administration officials continue to kidnap children from occupied Ukrainian territory.
The Kherson Oblast occupation administration Ministry of Labor and Social Policy claimed on September 28 that Russian senator for occupied Kherson Oblast Konstantin Basyuk and Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo organized a “tourist trip” for 20 children and an unspecified number of adults from occupied Kherson Oblast to Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai, for an unspecified length of time.
On Sept 28, 20 children and 17 mothers from front line areas of occupied Donetsk Oblast arrived at the Klyazma sanitorium in Moscow Oblast for a rehabilitation program that the “Helping Our Own” Foundation organizes.
Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov posted footage on September 29 purportedly showing 20 children from occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts receiving Russian passports at the Victory Museum in Moscow.
Foreign Ministry: Belarus to showcase abducted Ukrainian children at meeting with foreign diplomats at locations where Ukrainian children taken from regions temporarily occupied by Russia are kept, the Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 30. The visits will reportedly take place on Oct. 4 at the so-called "places of residence, education, and rehabilitation" of Ukrainian children from the cities of Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk.
Ukrainian refugee children in EU face 'perpetual uncertainty'. Children who fled Ukraine for EU countries following Russia's all-out war struggle with language barriers, disrupted education, and psychological trauma, the EU's Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) reported on Sept. 29.
ISW: Russia may be continuing attempts to evade sanctions through military-technical cooperation with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member countries. Delegations from the defense ministries of Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan arrived in Tula Oblast to discuss military and military-technical cooperation on September 29.[59] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that CIS defense ministers also established a military research organization and a joint humanitarian demining unit.
The SSU and SBI exposed the command and key saboteurs of the elite special forces of the Russian Federation, who committed high-profile sabotage in Ukraine and the EU. Among them are the current commander, Major General Valerii Flyustikov, and the former bodyguard of Putin, Oleksii Dyumin, who in 2014 held the position of commander of the special forces of the Russian Army. They are involved in high-profile murders and sabotage on the territory of Ukraine and the European Union, including the detonation of a military facility in the Czech Republic.
Russian proxies in annexed Crimea to start fining business owners who refuse to shelter residents during air raids. The occupation authorities in annexed Sevastopol will begin fining the owners of commercial buildings for refusing to let residents take shelter during air raid alerts, according to the city’s Russian-installed governor, Mikhail Razvozhayev.
The so-called Supreme Court in the temporarily occupied Crimea sentenced two Ukrainian citizens to 15 and 16 years in prison on "espionage" charges.
"Defendant M. Petrovsky was sentenced to 16 years in prison with serving the sentence in a strict-regime correctional colony, defendant S. Kotov – 15 years in prison with serving the sentence in a strict-regime correctional colony," RFE/RL’s Crimea.Realities project reports.
Sky Report: 280 Days inside Russia’s Torture Chambers
“Torture was designed to lock down the civilian population.”
When Kherson was liberated on 11 November 2022, the scenes were euphoric. Citizens hugged and kissed soldiers. Ukrainian flags flew everywhere. The most significant city to be recaptured by Ukraine, it offered proof that Russia could be driven back - and, maybe, eventually out of Ukraine.
But liberation also revealed the horror of prolonged Russian occupation. In the Kherson region, over 254 days, the Russians constructed a network of at least 26 detention centres to control the civilian population.
Police stations, schools and government buildings were used as torture sites or places where civilians' human rights were severely violated. These have been mapped by the Media Initiative for Human Rights (MIHR), a Ukrainian NGO. [continue]
Meanwhile in Russia…
From Moscow: ‘One country, one family, one Russia’: Live concert in Moscow’s Red Square celebrated the anniversary of last year’s illegal annexations on Sept 29.
Julia Davis provides this clip that must be put aside and kept for the future. Mardan talked about Putin’s declaration establishing September 30th as ‘Reunification Day’ of Russian territory, and clearly spells out what Russia’s intentions are: the restoration of the Russian empire as it was under the Tsars, sanctioned by God through the Russian Orthodox Church. Many analysts mistakenly believe that Russia is trying to recreate the Soviet regime because they see the tools of power and control that the Kremlin has put to use at home and abroad. The Soviets learned about wielding power from the Tsarist regime, so these tools weren’t new.
Russian airlines have received a recommendation to refuse to fly abroad on aircraft leased from the State Transport and Leasing Company (GTLK). As Interfax reports, citing a source in the aviation industry, the decision was made by the Federal Air Transport Agency in connection with the threat of arrest of the airliners. Almost countries that the Russian authorities call friendly or neutral were subject to a flight ban. These include, for example, China, India, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, the countries of the former USSR and others. An exception was made only for two states - Belarus and Turkey. There, according to the Federal Air Transport Agency, the risks of arrest are minimal.
Monique: And…they don’t have spare parts, updates for the technology used in the air frames, and I would love to see which insurance company is providing coverage.
ISPI: Putin said that the Russian economy has definitely recovered from "external pressures," i.e., the sanctions it was subjected to after the invasion of Ukraine. Probably not the full story, but it is clear that the sanctions have not had the desired immediate effects. Moscow has managed to mitigate their impact by increasing trade with China, India and other partners in the Global South. Add to that increased government spending on the war effort and a surprisingly resilient private sector. Russia is doing better than expected, analysts at ISPI say.
Monique: Russia has also been able to evade sanctions via a series of mechanisms to do with trade and occult businesses. We also don’t know if these numbers reflect the economy. Something to consider.
The Moscow Times: while the authorities are reporting on overcoming the crisis and economic growth, Rosstat recorded that the industry has slipped into recession. August became the third month of decline in production, if seasonal and calendar factors are eliminated: in June-August it amounted to 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.3%, the statistical service provides data. Experts, depending on their models, also interpret Rosstat data in such a way that industrial growth has fizzled out and even given way to a decline, if not a recession.
The Investigative Committee of Russia opened a criminal case for fraud on an especially large scale against the Novik industrial group, which was engaged in the repair of Russian warships, Kommersant writes. According to investigators, the criminal schemes were organized by ex-State Duma deputy Alexey Lyashchenko, who headed Novik from the formation of the company in June 2009 until its bankruptcy in September 2016. According to Kommersant, he is now hiding in the UAE due to a criminal case regarding non-payment of salaries to company employees.
Allied Support…
Chairwoman of the German Defence and Security Committee Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann once again stated that Taurus cruise missiles should be delivered to Ukraine immediately to disrupt Russian supplies. Shel also said that International law allows Ukraine to attack military targets in Russia. She urged Chancellor Scholz to stop waiting and start acting.
Borrell makes unannounced visit to Odesa.
"Odesa is a beautiful historic city. It should be in the headlines for its vibrant culture (and) spirit," EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell wrote on Twitter. "Instead, it marks the news as a frequent target of Putin's war."
Romanian Army Chief Petrescu: “Russia "actively and constantly" jams GPS communications of ships in Romania's territorial waters, generating the risk of clashes, Romanian army chief of staff Daniel Petrescu said, Romania Journal reported.
"War has returned to Europe. It is a war chosen by Russia. We must prepare for a long-term confrontation with the Russian regime. We feel this confrontation very well, especially on NATO's eastern flank and especially in the Black Sea. Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally destabilized the Black Sea region and created a sense of insecurity among the littoral countries, with consequences for the security environment," the general said at the Euro-Atlantic Resilience Forum in Bucharest.”
"There is a constant risk associated with the increasing likelihood of incidents on the NATO border caused by the possibility that certain drones or missiles may miss. Romanian infrastructure or commercial vessels in (Romania's) territorial waters could be attacked by mistake," Petrescu said.
Sweden donates €25.2 million to restore Ukraine's energy system. In August, Sweden transferred 25.2 million euros to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine, established under the Energy Community Secretariat.
Turkey's Baykar, the manufacturer of Bayraktar TB2 UAV's, is investing $100 million in three projects in Ukraine, among them the construction of a drone production plant that will be completed in one-and-a-half years.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the leaders of five central Asian nations on Friday pledged to cooperate closely on sanctions in a carefully worded statement that did not pinpoint Russia. The gathering of Scholz and the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan in Berlin was the first of its kind in an EU country.
Ukraine’s FM Dmytro Kuleba has expressed thanks to Switzerland for assistance in demining. In a post to social media he wrote:
I am grateful to Switzerland for contributing 100m CHF (£89m / $109m / €103.5m) to humanitarian mine clearance in Ukraine between 2024 and 2027. Substantial aid in cleaning the Ukrainian soil of Russian mines.
At the First International Defence Industries Forum, Ukraine signed 20 agreements and memoranda with foreign partners on the manufacture of drones, repair and production of armoured vehicles and ammunition, the defence ministry posted on Twitter. Zelenskyy said that air defence and de-mining were his immediate priorities. Ukraine also aims to boost domestic production of missiles, drones and artillery ammunition. Reuters reports:
“Ukraine is in such a phase of the defence marathon when it is very important, critical to go forward without retreating. Results from the frontline are needed daily,” Zelenskiy told executives representing more than 250 Western weapons producers.
“We are interested in localizing production of equipment needed for our defence and each of those advanced defence systems which are used by our soldiers, giving Ukraine the best results at the front today,” he told the forum in Kyiv.
Seven EU countries have ordered ammunition under a landmark EU procurement scheme to get urgently needed artillery shells to Ukraine and replenish depleted western stocks, according to the EU agency in charge. The orders – placed under contracts negotiated by the European Defence Agency – are for 155mm artillery rounds, one of the most important munitions in the war of attrition between Ukraine’s troops and Russian invaders.
Norway joins Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland and Estonia, members of the EU, in banning cars with Russian license plates from entering their territory, citing the corresponding clarification from the European Commission. Norway is not a member of the EU, but, like the countries listed above, is part of the Schengen agreement. According to the Barents Observer, Finland has introduced 24-hour controls on its border with Norway to stop Russian vehicles from entering. This decision was made because Norway still allows vehicles from the Russian Federation to enter through Storskog, the northernmost European checkpoint on the border with Russia.
Around the World
Secretary Blinken called Serbian President Vucic on Sept 29: “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Secretary Blinken and President Vucic discussed the importance of taking immediate measures to de-escalate tensions with Kosovo in the wake of the September 24 violence and death of a Kosovo Police Sergeant. The Secretary underscored that those responsible for the attacks who are now in Serbia must be held accountable.”
NATO announces additional peacekeeping forces in Kosovo. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Sept. 29 that the military alliance had approved additional peacekeeping forces in Kosovo after unrest along the Kosovo-Serbia border that left four people dead.
The leaders of Europe’s Mediterranean countries met in Malta on Friday to discuss shared challenges and opportunities. The migration dossier topped the agenda, as MED9 States – Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain – are at the forefront of the increasing migratory fluxes.
The Italian PM noted there’s a general “will to tackle the issue with thoroughness and speed” among MED9 countries. “I was very clear in setting out the issue as I see it, [including] the impact it is having on Italy. There is a convergence among these countries,” which are not all in the EU Council but are all experiencing the spike in arrivals, she said, adding their position “is shared.”
In his leaving speech, General Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, reiterated on September 29 that the US Armed Forces take an oath to the Constitution of the United States and not to any one person. They protect and are loyal to the state. He specifically mentioned a ‘wannabe dictator’, which is a reference to Donald Trump.
NYT: The House voted to approve a last-ditch measure to keep the government open for 45 days. The bill must now pass the Senate. The House bill attracted strong bipartisan support and includes more domestic disaster relief aid but no money for Ukraine.
Reuters: Canadian Sikhs say they are grateful to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for standing up to India at the risk of backlash from New Delhi, which he said could be linked to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader.
Monique: I’m waiting to post on this story. The extra-judicial killing was ordered by the Indian government on Canadian soil, according to intelligence the Canadian government received from Five Eyes. This is the same as the killings ordered by the Kremlin over the years in various countries in the European Union.
The Trump-Orban Bromance- WaPo
Last month, in an interview with far-right U.S. broadcaster Tucker Carlson at his opulent office in Budapest, Orban reiterated his hope that the current Republican front-runner would sweep back into power in 2024 — no matter the thicket of criminal proceedings that may ensnare his candidacy.
“Call back Trump,” Orban declared. “Trump is the man who can save the Western world.”
A couple days later, the former president returned the favor on social media. “Viktor Orban is a great leader and man,” Trump wrote. “The wonderful people of Hungary are lucky to have him!”
The bonhomie between the two is just the tip of the spear of a broader ideological alliance. In recent years, Orban has emerged as a kind of lodestar for the right-wing movement in the United States. In power since 2010, his enduring success is seen by some Republicans as a template for how an emboldened nationalist project can win and keep winning. Orban’s appearances at meetings of the Conservative Political Action Conference, an influential organ of the U.S. right that has staged events in Hungary, have been rockstar-like affairs, with the illiberal Hungarian leader bashing the “globalist ruling class” and “liberal” media to raucous applause. [continue]
Elon Musk visited the Texas-Mexico border, then went on X to tell people how the U.S. should fix its immigration problem. He's getting involved in a similar debate in Germany.
Monique: the account Musk is retweeting is Radio Genova, which I have reported numerous times for inaccuracies and flat out disinformation. They’re a far-right account that supports Salvini’s League Party and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. The RG post was about German NGOs saving the lives of asylum seekers and migrants who were attempting to make the Mediterranean crossing. The account regularly posts about migrant and identitarian issues—for example, The Great Replacement Theory.
There has been a marked increase in the ‘culture war’ posts on Russian aligned Telegram channels that coincide with elections in the various EU member states. The main aim of these posts on social media are to discourage electors from voting, increase their sense of powerlessness, and feed their anger on issues they fear. The Kremlin is desperate to get politicians that share its worldview into power so that they can in some way affect support to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making real progress on the Crimean front—The Atlantic Council
More than three months since the start of Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces have only managed to liberate a tiny portion of the territory currently under Russian occupation. However, the success or failure of the campaign cannot be measured in square kilometers alone. Beyond the front lines, the Ukrainian military is steadily reducing Russia’s ability to wage war and is methodically creating the conditions for future advances. This progress is nowhere more evident than in Crimea.
In recent weeks, the Ukrainian military has carried out a number of strategically significant attacks across the Crimean peninsula, which has been under Russian occupation since early 2014 and has served as a key logistics hub for current invasion. These operations are enabling Ukraine to threaten the supply lines of the Russian army in southern Ukraine, while also making it increasingly difficult for the Russian navy to maintain a presence in the northwestern Black Sea.