Oct 10: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Maria Avdeeva: Seeing the devastation caused by Russian attacks has taught me one thing: we must unite against evil and terrorism. When we stand together, they have no chance.
Stories we’re following…
Four people including a nine year old girl have been injured in a rocket strike on Konstantinivka on Sunday morning, according to the acting governor of Donetsk. Ihor Moroz said that 19 private homes, 10 multi-storey buildings, a boiler, a gas pipeline and a car were all damaged in the strike.
Moroz said Konstantinivka was “constantly experiencing enemy shelling” and warned people to evacuate, saying “It is dangerous to stay in the city!”
Governor: Russian strike on Kharkiv Oblast injures 2 people. Russian forces struck the village of Peresichne in Kharkiv Oblast with a rocket on Oct. 7, injuring a 66-year-old man and a 64-year-old woman, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
Russia attacks 6 communities in Sumy Oblast. The Russian military launched 10 attacks, striking the border settlements of Znob-Novhorodske, Seredyna-Buda, Khotin, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, and Putyvl.
Other Russian attacks were recorded in Kherson Oblast injures 11, including 9-month-old baby, and in Donetsk Oblast’s Kostiantynivka, injures 4, including child.
Oct 8: The governor of Kherson region in southern Ukraine, Oleksandr Prokudin, says a 27-year-old woman and her nine-month-old baby are among those wounded in another Russian attack, Reuters reports. “The Kherson region experienced another terrible night,” Prokudin wrote on the Telegram messaging app. Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces carried out 59 attacks on Kherson, the region’s administration said on Telegram.
Air Force: Russia to launch record number of Shahed drones this fall, winter. Yuri Ihnat, the Air Force's spokesperson, pointed out that Russian forces launched over 500 Shahed drones in attacks against Ukraine in September alone. "In the six months of the last heating season, Russia launched over 1,000 Shaheds against Ukraine. We already had half of that number in just one month," Ihnat noted.
At the UN, Russia skirts responsibility on its attack on the funeral commemoration in Hroza. "The funeral of one of the nationalists was held in the village of Hroza, there were many Ukrainian neo-Nazis there," Russia at the UN justifies the attack on the civilian population.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russia exploiting Hamas attack on Israel to divert support from Ukraine. Following Hamas' large-scale attacks on Israeli territory on Oct. 7, Russian voices amplified messages blaming Western countries for neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine.
General Staff: Ukraine repels Russian attacks in 5 directions. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the Kupiansk, Bakhmut, Lyman, Avdiivka, and Marinka directions over the course of Oct. 8, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
Defense intelligence confirms attack on occupiers in Dzhankoy. Ukrainian defenders launched a missile attack on the forces and means of the Russian troops in the temporarily occupied Dzhankoy, Crimea. The occupiers suffered losses, the details are being clarified.
General Staff Spokesman Andriy Kovalev said that during offensive operations, the AFU had partial success in the areas north of Kopani and north of Novoprokopivka and also to the west of Verbove. He also mentioned success northwest of Klishchiivka and east of Andriivka.
Russia deploying 'all available' reserves north of Bakhmut. Russia is deploying reserve forces north of Bakhmut in an attempt to deter Ukraine's advancing counteroffensive in Donetsk Oblast, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in eastern Ukraine said on Oct. 7.
"The enemy continues to deploy counter-assault units in this direction to prevent us from advancing in our offensive," said Ilya Yevlash, head of press services for Ukraine's forces on the eastern front.
"As a result of operations near Bakhmut, a Russian major and commander of the "Alga" batallion, part of the 72nd motorized rifle brigade, was captured." The 72nd brigade took big losses during the fighting for the area south of Bakhmut. Ultimately they had to leave Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
"This autumn/winter will be a record for the number of drones that Russia will use against Ukraine. More than 1000 Shaheds were used against Ukraine in the last 6 months of the heating season. Russia used more than 500 drones in September only," said spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat.
"Russia is preparing for a collapse of their logistics routes. They want to build a new railway line from Rostov-on-Don through the temporarily captured Ukrainian cities of Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol near the coast of the Sea of Azov - to Crimea," Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov reports.
The head GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, confirmed that SSO units tried 3 times to land on the left bank of the Dnipro in order to create a bridgehead for the liberation of occupied Enerhodar and the NPP. Fighters landed near Enerhodar, but could not gain a foothold
“Defenders of the anti-tank company of the 66th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 25 enemy tanks in just four days,” the head of the press service of the Eastern group Ilya Yevlash said.
Fighters of the 92nd brigade killed an officer near Bakhmut, Yuriy Butusov reports. The 38-year-old Major Volodymyr Myroshnichenko was the deputy commander of the battalion of the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade.
On Oct 8, during the night, explosions reported in both Yevpatoriya and Dhzankoy, Crimea. Also preliminary reports of Russian air defense active in Krasnoperekopsk was active.
Increased rail traffic at North Korean-Russian border suggests military transfers. Satellite imagery of North Korea's Tumangang Rail Facility at Russia's border captured on Oct. 5 revealed an unprecedented number of freight railcars, totaling up to 73, as well as a large number of shipping containers and equipment, the report said.
Shmyhal: More than 200 Ukrainian companies began developing drones. More than 200 Ukrainian companies began developing drones, growing domestic production by a hundredfold in a year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
A Stockholm court on Monday ordered a Russian-Swedish citizen accused of passing western technology to Russia to be released from custody ahead of its verdict on 26 October. Sergei Skvortsov has been held in detention since his arrest in a dawn raid on his Stockholm home in November 2022. He faces up to five years in prison for “unlawful intelligence activities” if convicted.
Meanwhile in Russia
Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s permanent representative to international organisations in Vienna, posted on X that Russia is planning to revoke ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation. “The aim is to be on equal footing with the US, who signed the treaty but didn’t ratify it,” he said. “Revocation doesn’t mean the intention to resume nuclear tests.” The US warned that Russia revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation will endanger “the global norm” against nuclear test blasts.
Russian lawmakers have been given ten days to study the possibility of revoking Moscow’s ratification of a treaty banning nuclear tests, the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, said in a statement. The chamber’s International Affairs Committee will need to conclude its work by 18 October, the statement said.
In St. Petersburg Tatiana Sichkareva and Yekaterina Mistryukova were detained for bringing flowers to the Taras Shevchenko statue to commemorate people killed in Ukraine by Russia.
Russian wheat exports in October are falling below the level they were at last year due to weak demand from major importers and informal restrictions imposed by the Russian agriculture ministry, analysts say. Russia has so far been exporting wheat at a record pace this year after a record harvest in 2022 of 104.2m tonnes, according to Reuters. The Sovecon agriculture consultancy estimated Russian wheat exports in October at 3.9-4.4m tonnes. October exports last year stood at 4.5m tonnes.
Gazprom hurting and not paying wages since its gas is cut off from most EU states. Workers at the Kovyktinskoye field, which supplies gas to the Power of Siberia pipeline laid to China, went on strike due to non-receipt of the promised money and working conditions,
Novosibirsk Online reports . According to one of the workers, shift workers stopped going to work on October 4. “We work for two months, and we have not been paid either a salary or an advance,” complained laborer Alexey Zimin, who came to the Irkutsk region to earn money and signed a 2-month contract with a Gazprom contractor.
Four days after Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the Central Bank and the government for measures to stabilize the ruble and promised that they would produce “good results,” the Russian currency market has hit a new low. At trading on the Moscow Exchange on Monday, August 9, the dollar rate rose above 102 rubles for the first time since the end of March 2022, and the euro broke through the 108 mark.
In 2024, the Russian government intends to allocate 45.85 billion rubles for “patriotic” programs for children and adolescents, according to the draft budget.
Almost 20.5 billion rubles will go to the First Movement, created in December, which President Vladimir Putin proposed to rename Pioneer. Of these, 7 billion will be directed toward involving citizens and organizations “in the system of patriotic education of children and youth,” and about 9.6 billion more will be received by regional branches. At the same time , the movement will be able to distribute part of the funds to any projects at its discretion. The organization refused to tell RBC what they plan to spend the budget money on.
Behind the Lines
A United Russia party official in the Russian-held town of Nova Kakhovka was killed in a car explosion on Saturday, the Russian-installed regional governor said. Vladimir Malov, executive secretary of the town branch of Russia’s governing United Russia party, died in hospital, Vladimir Saldo said in a post on his Telegram channel. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility.
Bloomberg: Switzerland has become a base for a fifth of Russian spies operating in Europe. About 80 Russian agents are now in Switzerland, a senior official of the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service told members of the National Council's Foreign Policy Commission.
Media: 1 in 5 Europe-based Russian spies located in Switzerland. Switzerland is increasingly becoming a base for Russia's secret services, with about 80 Russian spies in the country, according to an investigation by Swiss newspaper Neue Zurcher Zeitung.
The price of Russian oil has significantly exceeded the ceiling set by Western countries, and the US Treasury is trying to combat violations of sanctions on Russian energy exports. As part of a large-scale investigation, the activities of a major oil trader, Mercantile & Maritime Group, are being studied, The Wall Street Journal writes , citing people familiar with the situation.
Ukraine’s parliament registered a draft law on Monday that would allow a ban on activities of the Moscow-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church. Reuters reports:
The church has been accused by Kyiv of undermining Ukraine’s unity and collaborating with Russia following Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, charges that it denies.
The bill proposes amendments envisaging a court ban on religious organisations that include members convicted of war propaganda, violate an article that forbids what is described as justification of Russian aggression against Ukraine, or violate citizens’ equal rights based on religious beliefs.
Registration of the draft bill is a first step in the process of becoming law.
The bill now requires the approval of a parliamentary committee before it can be submitted for consideration by parliament.
Positive trends reported in Ukraine's key economic sectors. Ukraine’s key sectors grew between January and September this year, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on Oct. 9, citing the Ministry's preliminary estimates. Construction topped the list, growing by 18.4% in the first half of 2023.
Allied Support
Biden intends to ask Congress for a record package of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The size of the package may reach $100 billion which should be enough until November 2024.
Ukraine, Japan start negotiations on bilateral security guarantees agreement. Ukraine and Japan have started the first round of negotiations on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees, Ukraine's Presidential Office said on Oct. 7. The talks demonstrate "global support for Ukraine, which goes far beyond Europe and North America," Ihor Zhovka, the lead negotiator and deputy head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, said.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen appealed to NATO not to give in to war fatigue in Ukraine.
"Brave Ukrainian men and women are fighting on the battlefield. They are the face of right against wrong, of good against evil. This invasion is a threat to the ideas our alliance is built on," she emphasized.
Denmark is working on "broadening and deepening" the coalition of countries that have pledged to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told the NATO parliamentary assembly's annual session in Copenhagen today.
"The events in Israel will not affect aid to Ukraine," the European Commission representative Eric Mamer said. "Tomorrow, EU foreign ministerswill discuss the situation in Israel, but this does not mean that the attention of the European Union will be refocused from Ukraine."
President Zelenskyy will visit neighbouring Romania on today, his first trip to the Nato member country since Russia invaded Ukraine last February, the Romanian presidency has said. Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta is Kyiv’s main alternative export route for grain since Russia quit a safe passage deal in mid-July. Romania has detected several drone fragments falling on its territory, prompting it to increase patrols and observation points, as well as expanding a no-fly zone along a section of the border with Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy’s evening address: Ukraine and Israel
I held a meeting with the heads of our intelligence, GUR and foreign intelligence, with our diplomats regarding the situation in and around Israel and the general situation in the Middle East.
According to the available information, which is very clear, Russia is interested in igniting a war in the Middle East, so that a new source of pain and suffering will weaken world unity, add divisions and contradictions, and thereby help Russia destroy freedom in Europe.
We see how Russian propagandists are getting angry. We see how Moscow's Iranian friends are openly supporting those who attacked Israel. And all this is a much greater threat than the world perceives now. The world wars of the past broke out precisely from local aggressions.
And we know how to counteract this threat. And we are preparing appropriate steps. And most importantly, we defend the need for maximum world unity.
Around the World
CNN: Israel’s security cabinet has officially declared a state of war, according to the government press office Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed the country will "take mighty vengeance" for the attack by Palestinian militants.
The number of Israelis killed exceeded 800 people, while more than 2382 were wounded, and there are at least 130 hostages. The BBC reports that 9 US citizens are now confirmed dead, while more than 10 British citizens are feared dead, or missing
Israel: Israeli troops were active cleaning up towns in the south of the country that were occupied by Hamas fighters on Oct 8.
heavy explosions were reported in the Gaza Strip and Tel Aviv. Israeli Air Force bombing numerous targets
IDF has moved M109A5 self-propelled artillery units close to the village of Sderot
the IDF struck at the Interior Ministry building of Hamas, and a facility belonging to the head of the Hamas intelligence
The Israelis are deploying reserves, Merkava MKIII tanks are seen on the border with Lebanon.
The IDF Israeli invites all Israeli citizens to stock up water and food enough for a 72-hour-stay in case of emergency.
The Al Quds Brigades, the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement, has claimed responsibility for an attack at the Lebanon-Israel border. The group claimed several Israeli soldiers were wounded in the assault, which the Israeli military has not verified.
The official representative of the military wing of Hamas, Abu Ubaida, said that in response to each "strike without warning" from Israel, the group will execute a civilian prisoner.
Hezbollah has warned the Biden administration that if the US intervenes directly in the conflict, all US installations in the Middle East region, including military bases, embassies and consulates, will become targets of its attacks.
IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari reports that within 48 hours, already 300.000 reservists have been mobilized. More than initially called for. He added that Israel is in control of all communities and at the moment there is no fighting inside Israel, but that it is possible there are still Hamas militants in Israeli territory.
Israel ordered a “complete siege” of the Gaza Strip as its troops battled to drive Palestinian militants out of border areas. Israel's MoD Yoav Gallant said that “no electricity, no food, no water, no fuel” will be allowed into Gaza as Israeli airstrikes pounded the coastal strip for a third day. The population in Gaza is 2.3 million.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told US President Joe Biden in their phone call that Israel would have no choice but to enter into ground action in Gaza, so said three Israeli and American sources familiar with the contents of the conversation.
Footage from Oct 8 of a road near the village of Re'im in Israel, close to the border with the Gaza Strip which became a target for Hamas fighters in the first hours of the attack yesterday.
Air raid sirens sounded throughout the centre of Jerusalem after the Palestinian militant group Hamas said it fired rockets towards the city. The militant group said it targeted Jerusalem in response to the targeting of civilian homes in the Gaza Strip.
Reuters: Qatari mediators in coordination with the US have held calls with Hamas officials to try to negotiate freedom for Israeli women and children seized and held in Gaza in exchange for the release of 36 Palestinian women and children from Israel's prisons
Ashdod, a resort town south of Tel Aviv, is currently under fire from Hamas. Cars are on fire after rockets hit the area.
US sends carrier strike group to Middle East in response to attacks on Israel. "Today, in response to this Hamas attack on Israel, and following detailed discussions with President Biden, I have directed several steps to strengthen Department of Defense posture in the region to bolster regional deterrence efforts," U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.
Arab League foreign ministers are set to meet on Wednesday to discuss ways “to stop the Israeli aggression” against the Gaza Strip, the pan-Arab group said in a statement Reuters reported.
WSJ: Iran helped Hamas develop the plan for a combined attack on Israel. It was developed from August to October 2023. Last monday in Beirut, Iran reportedly gave the green light for the operation, WSJ writes.
An Egyptian intelligence official told the Associated Press that Egypt had spoken repeatedly with the Israelis about “something big”, without elaborating. The office of Israel’s prime minister has denied that it received a warning from Egypt about an imminent attack, Israel’s public radio reports.
“We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” said the official.
In response to the Hamas attacks on Israel, Austria has suspended aid to the Palestinians. Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said the country was suspending aid totalling around €19 million for a handful of projects.
UN Security Council holds emergency meeting following attack on Israel. Israel's Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan appealed to the Security Council to condemn the "ruthless terror" attacks conducted by Hamas. "Hamas' war crimes must be unequivocally condemned. This unimaginable atrocity must be condemned. Israel must be given steadfast support to defend ourselves," Erdan told reporters ahead of the Security Council meeting in New York.
Leaders of UK, France, Germany and US to discuss Hamas’s attack on Israel. Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he expects to discuss the conflict in the Middle East with his counterparts from the UK, France and the US on Monday evening. Scholz was speaking at a news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of a joint meeting of their countries' cabinets in Hamburg.
NYT: More than 800 people have died since two major earthquakes hit northwestern Afghanistan on Saturday. That toll is expected to rise, according to the local authorities, making the dual shocks one of the deadliest natural disasters to hit the country in decades. Aid workers who arrived yesterday in Herat Province found that in some cases, entire families had been killed. Hospitals and clinics — already on the brink of collapse because of shortfalls in funding — have been overwhelmed with hundreds of injured people.
Bad Baltic Takes: russia’s multipolar world
This is a glimpse of russia’s “multipolar world”.
There’s a lot of discussion about whether - or to what extent - russia is involved in *directly* fermenting wider violence around the world.
But don’t ignore the bigger picture here.
Russia is a signatory to the Charter of the UN, which commits it to supporting the rules-based order of cooperating sovereign states that it too benefits from.
Russia is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which has a primary role for upholding the UN Charter and enforcing global peace.
Yet it is using that position to wage a genocidal war of imperial aggression in severe violation of the UN Charter it is tasked to uphold. It is behaving as an aggressor and a terrorist while simultaneously emboldening aggressors and terrorists globally, both directly and indirectly. Russia’s “multipolar world” means the end of the prohibition on aggression, which was defined clearly by all nations relatively recently at Kampala. It means the end of respecting sovereign nations and a return to an age of warring empires where might makes right.
There will be many different aggressors and terrorists with many different interests who are emboldened by russia. This will continue to spiral globally until the world finds the courage to reinforce international law and prosecute the crime of aggression based on its own rules.
Russia must bear its responsibility.
Programming note…
Chatham House: With the 2024 presidential primary season rapidly approaching and Donald Trump, the frontrunner in the Republican Party’s nomination for president, facing the prospect of multiple trials, the possibility of a return to Republican leadership presents multiple challenges for America’s allies and partners.