Oct 12: E-Stories
Day595 Nikopol Eurojust CombatSit Avdiivka BlackSea Zapo grain Redut Crimea InRussia oil diamonds NATO-UAConf ALLIES Uefa USdom ISREAL A&P IWP UKDef MacKay TimesRad Weiss Hyde TuckerArctic
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian shelling in Kharkiv Oblast injures 2. Shelling by Russian forces on the morning of Oct. 11 in the village of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi in Kharkiv Oblast wounded a 72-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man, Governor Oleh Syniehubov wrote on Telegram.
A Russian missile struck a school in the town of Nikopol in the central Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk on Wednesday, killing at least four people, Ukrainian officials said.
An international team of prosecutors seeking to put Russia’s top officials on trial over the Ukraine invasion has already gathered “thousands” of pieces of evidence, the head of EU judicial agency, Eurojust, has told AFP.
Prosecutors are sifting through wiretaps, videos, satellite imagery and witness testimony, building a mountain of evidence that could eventually run into the “hundreds of thousands”, Ladislav Hamran said.
Hamran’s Eurojust agency is coordinating an unprecedented team from several European countries, Ukraine, the US and the international criminal court seeking to bring the Kremlin’s senior leadership to justice over the invasion of Ukraine.
Set up just three months ago, the International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression (ICPA) aims to plug a hole in international law laid bare by Russia’s February 2022 invasion.
Combat Situation Update
Russian media report that massive cluster munition shelling is ongoing on their positions in the direction of Robotyne-Verbove. "Massive enemy attack on our positions. Cassettes drop every 3-5 minutes. In pauses we respond but counter-battery at night is a complicated thing."
Hotspot: Spokesman of the General Staff, Andriy Kovalev, said that the Russians with forces of up to 3 battalions, supported by tanks and armored vehicles, intensified their offensive near Avdiivka. Russia said its forces had strengthened their position on the frontline near Avdiivka, AFP reports. Avdiivka is symbolically and strategically important to Kyiv, lying just north of the Moscow-controlled city of Donetsk that was seized by separatist forces in 2014.
Michael MacKay: “Where the arrow is pointing at Avdiyivka is the "Promzone" industrial area. The contact line between Russian invaders and Ukrainian defenders in this place has remained the same since late 2014.”
Meanwhile the AFU has improved their tactical position in the Robotyne area and are continuing their assaults east of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. The fighting continues. Berdychi and Stepove are under UA control, despite Russian claims.
General Tarnaviskyi with an update on the eastern Tavria front. "Almost 100 units of enemy equipment were destroyed. Among them a Su-25 aircraft, a BMPT Terminator, one MLRS, 18 tanks, 59 APC's, 5 artillery systems and one AD missile system."
In the Lyman-Kupyansk area, Russian forces are trying to advance several months now without significant success.
Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Azman: “Words of support for the people of Israel and the Israel Defense Forces from Ukrainian intelligence officers near Bakhmut.”
NATO has stated that Ukrainian strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in September severely limited its capabilities, but it remains capable of performing basic wartime tasks, reports a high-ranking NATO official on the sidelines of the meeting of defence ministers of the Alliance countries. The official said, the Black Sea Fleet suffered a number of serious attacks in September, including attacks on its headquarters.
"These attacks were more devastating and better coordinated than others so far in this war. The physical damage was almost certainly severe, but localised, leading to Russia withdrawing most of its fleet from Crimea," the official said.
However, he said, the fleet almost certainly remains capable of carrying out its main wartime tasks of striking with cruise missiles and patrolling the area.
"But its ability to continue broader regional patrols and enforce a de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports is likely to decline. It is also likely that its ability to protect its facilities and conduct weekly maintenance has deteriorated," the official said.
Behind the Lines
Zelensky signs law restoring public access to asset declarations. President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on Oct. 10 to resume asset declarations for officials and immediately make them publicly accessible.
Iohannis: Almost 60% of Ukrainian grain exports transit through Romania. Nearly 60% of the total volume of Ukrainian grain exports transit through Romania, the country's president Klaus Iohannis said in Bucharest on Oct. 10.
Media: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant's chief engineer allegedly holds Russian citizenship. The former director and now chief engineer of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ihor Murashov, allegedly received a Russian passport in occupied Crimea in 2014, the Ukrainian media outlet Hromadske reported on Oct. 10.
The GRU, under the guise of the Redut PMC, is recruiting mercenaries for the war with Ukraine. At least 20 formations are fighting under the control of military intelligence. The main thing from the investigation of “Schemes” and “Systems”.
The Russians have developed a manual for teachers on how to lie to children about Crimea. Extracurricular classes on the illegal occupation of Crimea in 2014 are held in captured schools in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
The National Resistance Center got access to the manual, with the help of which the occupiers are supposed to brainwash schoolchildren of the 10th and 11th grades.
The key thing is that the enemy does not mention the role of the Russian military in the process of occupying the peninsula. Thus, according to the manual, the “reunification of Crimea with the Russian Federation” was solely caused by the actions of the local population, which was apparently dissatisfied with the policy of the Ukrainian government. Thus, schoolchildren are told about the alleged “protests” of local residents and their creation of “local self-defense units.” However, there is no mention of the so-called “green men” – servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces without identification marks on their uniforms, who seized control of the peninsula with the help of armored vehicles.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia files complaint to UN aviation organization over sanctions. Russia's foreign ministry officially filed a complaint with the U.N.'s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) on Oct. 11, saying that some of its members were acting in a discriminatory fashion towards Russian aircraft, Russian state media reported. The ministry called unfair the ban placed by EU countries, as well as the U.S., U.K., and Canada on Russian airlines from operating in their airspace, the export of aviation parts and insurance for Russian airlines, and the sharing of meteorological information.
The authorities are not happy that the oil price ceiling is not working; the average price of Urals in September exceeded $83. However, this does not affect the ruble exchange rate: despite all the efforts of the authorities, it fluctuates around 100 rubles/$.
“The current rise in hydrocarbon prices and a decrease in the discount [to the benchmark North Sea Dated grade] have not provided significant support to the ruble,” the Central Bank states in its latest review, citing the reason for delays in “receiving and returning foreign exchange earnings to the Russian market. ”
Bloomberg: Egypt to import 480,000 metric tons of Russian wheat. Egypt's state-owned buyer General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has booked around 480,000 metric tons of Russian wheat, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 10 citing anonymous traders.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost about 300,000 regular and irregular soldiers. This was stated by a high-ranking NATO official on the sidelines of a meeting of defense ministers of the alliance countries, the Ukrainian publication European Pravda reports .
“Regarding losses, the Russians are suffering significant losses, and we know this. We know for sure that the Russians suffer significantly more losses than the Ukrainians. Therefore, we believe that we are approaching a figure of about 300,000 Russian soldiers and mercenaries who have died since the invasion in February 2022,” the official claims.
Allied Support
Secretary general of Nato Stoltenberg met with president Zelenskyy outside Nato headquarters on Oct 11. In a joint press conference, Stoltenberg praised the Ukrainian forces, and added that “[Nato] need to sustain and step up support” for Ukraine. The leaders were meeting to talk about Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
Zelenskyy has spoken at some length with words of advice for Israel and world leaders, saying it is important for the people under attack not to feel alone when they are being targeted by terrorists.
Zelenskyy again appealed for the release of confiscated Russian assets in the west to be used to fund projects in Ukraine. He said:
We also have to think how to live during the war. It means the reconstruction. And there are some voices in the world [saying] that we don’t have money to help Ukraine in reconstruction. The answer is very quick. You have assets. Russian. They destroyed us, we can use this money. Let’s find the key to have these Russian money and spend them on reconstruction of Ukraine.
Stoltenberg said that the support for Ukraine from Nato would be “about air defence and ammunition:
Air defence is critical to protect the cities, the economy, the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, and that helps them to help themselves, because then the economy can function. Then things can work in Ukraine. And that will help the Ukrainians to also produce, to trade, to function as a normal country. And that will increase their ability to finance and to provide also ammunition themselves for the war.
VOA: US to unveil new $200 million Ukraine aid package. Washington is expected to provide an additional $200 million in military aid for Ukraine. The package will include the AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile, artillery munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), TOW anti-tank missiles, and 155mm and 105mm rounds.
The UK announces a new $122 million military aid package for Ukraine at an upcoming meeting at the NATO HQ. The package is aimed to help clear minefields, repair vehicles and strengthen defensive fortifications to protect critical infrastructure
Germany’s Rheinmetall to supply 150,000 shells to Ukraine. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced that Berlin has ordered the production of 150,000 artillery shells for Ukraine, the company’s website published on Oct. 10.
Belgium will create a €1.7 billion fund for Ukraine and introduces new sanctions against Russia. The fund will be replenished from taxes on the profits of frozen Russian assets. Brussels will introduce sanctions on the Russian diamond business, PM Alexander de Croo reported.
Croatia to assist demining efforts in Ukraine. Ukraine and Croatia have signed a bilateral agreement on joint demining operations in the war-torn country, the Cabinet of Ministers announced Oct. 10.
Canada's Minister of National Defense Bill Blair has announced that they will provide Ukraine with a new defense aid package totaling $19 million. It will include winter clothing and equipment such as shoes, heat sinks, sleeping bags and military uniforms
Belgium to provide Ukraine with F-16 jets from 2025. Belgium will provide Ukraine with several F-16 fighter jets starting from 2025, Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder told RTL info on Oct. 11. The minister did not specify the number of the planes Belgium intends to send but said that the transfer will depend on "the build-up of our new F-35 capabilities."
UEFA reverses decision to re-admit Russian youth athletes. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) walked back its decision on Oct. 10 that allowed Russian youth teams to play in the Under-17 European Championship.
CNN: House Republicans voted behind closed doors to select Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana as their nominee for speaker, according to multiple sources familiar, paving the way for a floor vote to elect a new speaker after Kevin McCarthy’s abrupt ouster.
Up-date: The House did not vote on electing a Speaker yesterday because they do not have enough votes for any of their candidates. Meanwhile, a war is going on in Israel and Ukraine and the government is barrelling toward another shutdown.
Around the World
Reuters: The death toll in Israel from Hamas’s attack has passed 1,200, and bodies continue to be recovered. Troops are massed at the Gaza border ahead of an expected ground invasion. In Gaza: Israeli strikes have killed at least 950 people and forced the closure of the only exit from the blockaded territory.
The IDF hit hundreds of targets in Gaza overnight, including 80 in the neighbourhood of Beit Hanon and over 450 targets in the Al-Furqan neighborhood in the last 24 hours, and 70 more “targets” were hit in the neighbourhood of al-Daraj. The targets included banks and places the IDF says were used by Hamas to directed attacks against Israel. Israel’s military aim is to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities, a spokesperson said.
Israeli media reports about mortar shelling of Israel from the territory of Syria.
Hezbollah reportedly struck IDF forces near Arab al-Aramshe on the Lebanese border, Israeli media reported. Israelian forces are striking Hezbollah positions in response.
The IDF released footage of recent strikes on the University of Gaza which according to them was a main institution for Hamas engineers for the production of weapons.
The IDF has reportedly introduced a restricted zone around the Gaza Strip up to the outskirts of Ashkelon. Entering this zone will be seen as a crime and punishable.
Founder and Secretary-General of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba in Iraq, Akram al-Kaabi, reportedly arrived in Lebanon. About 5000 of his men are likely to strengthen the border with Israel. Akram al-Kaabi is wanted by the US and escaped several assasination attempts.
It is reported that one of the founders of Hamas, Sheikh Abdel Fattah Dukhan, has been killed. Several media report that he was reportedly killed during an airstrike at the Nuseirat Camp in the central Gaza Strip.
Israel forms emergency government and war cabinet. Israel is forming an emergency government and war management cabinet, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz jointly announced Wednesday. Gantz, a former defense minister, will join Netanyahu and current defense minister Yoav Gallant in a “war management cabinet,” the joint Netanyahu-Gantz statement said. The government will not pass any laws or make any decisions that do not concern the conduct of the war, the announcement said.
Noel Report: Israeli air defense operating against incoming rockets in Ashkelon in the night on Oct 11.
Israel’s MoD Gallant told soldiers “we will come from the ground,” in another clear sign that ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. Speaking on Tuesday to soldiers near the Gaza fence, Gallant said,
“Hamas wanted a change and it will get one. What was in Gaza will no longer be. We started the offensive from the air, later on we will also come from the ground.”
UN chief urges Israel to allow 'life-saving' supplies into Gaza
The UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, has called for essential “life-saving” supplies of fuel, food and water to be allowed into Gaza.
Guterres, in remarks to the press on Wednesday, said he will never forget the images of the “supercharged cycle of violence and horror”.
He said he was in continuous contact with leaders in the region, and warned against any “spillover” of the conflict. “I appeal to all parties – and those who have an influence over those parties – to avoid any further escalation,” he said.
Readout: Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer on Oct 11. The Secretary reiterated his profound condolences for the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel and reaffirmed unequivocal U.S. support for Israel’s right to defend itself and its citizens against this attack. The Secretary and the Minister made clear that the terrorist actions of Hamas have no justification, no legitimacy, and must be universally condemned.
The US has discussed brokering an aid corridor for civilians in Gaza as Israel’s air force continued to pound the territory. The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said on Tuesday that talks on safe passage for civilians in Gaza were being held with Israel and Egypt.
The United States government is discussing with international partners, including Qatar, efforts to rescue hostages taken from southern Israel into Gaza by Hamas militants. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby chiefly addressed the topic of Americans among the hostages. It’s unclear at this time what international discussions are taking place in relation to all the hostages grabbed by Hamas at the weekend.
“We know that a number of those [17 missing] Americans are being held hostage right now by Hamas. I think we all need to steel ourselves for the very distinct possibility that htese numbers will keep increasing and that we may find out that more Americans are part of the hostage pool,” Kirby said.
Kirby added that: “The Israelis have a very robust hostage recovery capability of their own…but we also have a lot of know-how, too, and we’re offering to share that with the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF).”
He did not rule out US military becoming directly involved with hostage rescue but said it was too soon to talk about any decisions. Kirby said the government does not know exactly where the hostages are.
Israel is preparing for full-scale war. They have prepared underground hospitals.
Secretary Blinken—presser—Andrews Air Base
Hello, everyone. We are heading, as you know, to Israel, and I’m going with a very simple and clear message on behalf of the President of the United States and on behalf of the American people, and that is that the United States has Israel’s back. We have the back of the Israeli people. We have their back today. We’ll have it tomorrow. We will have it every day.
We stand resolutely against terrorism. We’ve seen the almost undescribable acts committed by Hamas against Israeli men, women, and children. Every day we’re learning more, and it is simply heartbreaking. Not since ISIS have we seen this kind of depravity, and we will continue to stand very resolutely against it.
When I’m in Israel, I’ll have the opportunity to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, other senior officials. I look forward to seeing our embassy team, as well, which is doing terrific work during these difficult days.
We’re determined to make sure that Israel gets everything it needs to defend itself, and provide for the security of its people. Already, significant military assistance requested by Israel is on the way. That’s on top of everything that we’ve been doing for years, including with the memorandum of understanding that was negotiated by President Obama, to make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself.
At the same time, we anticipate there’ll be further needs, further requests. We’ve already been closely with Congress on this, and look forward to continuing to do that to make sure that Israel has what it needs.
Second, we will be reiterating, reaffirming the very strong message President Biden has delivered to any country or any party that might try to take advantage of the situation. And that message is: Don’t. The President has deployed, as you know, the world’s largest aircraft carrier group to the region to make very clear our intent to deter anyone contemplating any further aggression against Israel.
Finally, of course, we’re very focused on our own people, our own citizens. We lost 22 Americans; that number could still go up. It probably will. At the same time, we have a number of Americans who remain unaccounted; we are working very closely with the Government of Israel to determine their whereabouts, and if they have been taken hostage by Hamas, to work to secure their release.
So, all of these things are on the agenda over the next day or so with Israel, but the main point is this: We stand with Israel. We’ll continue to do so.
Look at the horror of the Israel-Hamas war, then at Elon Musk’s X site. It’s clear he’s not fit to run it—Marina Hyde
For more than a decade, Twitter was an absolutely key resource for understanding major world events and disasters in real time. Open-source reporters and investigators pieced together the picture on the ground from primary sources and verified content. I’m calling it Twitter in this instance, because that was then. X is something different, although I’m sure we’re all on tenterhooks for its vaunted transformation into the everything app/surveillance capitalism dreamscape humanity deserves.
As numerous information specialists have pointed out in recent days, the platform now offers a forest of disinformation so dense that penetrating it has become extremely difficult. Justin Peden, an open-source intelligence researcher who found the platform valuable when covering the 2021 Gaza escalation, told Wired this weekend that it was currently almost impossible to reach the useful information. X users now pay for blue ticks, and those who do have their posts algorithmically promoted. Last weekend, such viral posts included Algerian firework celebrations being sold as Israeli attacks on Hamas, Arma 3 video game footage being presented as a Hamas attack, years-old videos from the Syrian conflict cast as contemporaneous attacks on Tel Aviv airport, and an entirely fake photo of Cristiano Ronaldo holding the Palestinian flag posted by an account that poses as a blue-tick BBC journalist.
Never underestimate Musk’s capacity for making things even worse, however, as the nuclear-bomb-in-a-china-shop mogul sought once more to direct the conversation he bought for $44bn. “For following the war in real time,” he instructed his 150m-plus followers on Sunday morning, “@WarMonitors & @sentdefender are good.” And yet, are they in even the same galaxy as good? In May, both accounts spread wholly false accounts of an explosion near the Pentagon – US stocks promptly dipped – while @WarMonitors has posted antisemitic insults and content on several occasions. Just 11 million people had viewed Musk’s post before he took it down and posted again, this time adopting arguably the worst Musk tone – fake responsibility. “As always,” Elon patronised, “please try to stay as close to the truth as possible, even for stuff you don’t like.” Likewise, Phony Stark. Likewise.
Last month, the EU claimed that X had the highest rate of disinformation of any major social media platform. However worthy and essential, these reports always feel somewhat dry and academic when they drop on an uneventful Tuesday morning in Brussels. It is in the eye of horrors such as those currently unfolding in Israel and Gaza that the cost of unmooring from checks and balances becomes terribly, grotesquely clear. The type of people who benefit are terrorists, propagandists and other bad actors. There are real-world costs the click-chasers can’t even begin to foresee – the unspeakable in pursuit of the unreliable. [continue]
With eye toward Russia and China, NORTHCOM concludes special mission in the Arctic—Patrick Tucker
Last month, just days after four Russian military aircraft flew in Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, teams of U.S. special operations forces conducted a mission on St. Lawrence island in the Bering Sea, just 50 miles away from continental Russia, as well as on Shemya Island, which sits in Alaska’s remote Aleutian island chain. The objective of what NORTHCOM is calling Operation Polar Dagger was to extend U.S capabilities to monitor the air and sea domain in the Arctic and showcase how well special operator air, land, and sea teams work together in harsh, long-distance environments like the Bering Sea.
Thank you for these updates.
And other commentary to note: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/opinion/gaza-israel-war-morals.html
Israel HAD to retaliate after the Hamas attack,. OTOH it was unwise of Netanyahu to promise the eradication of Hamas -- even though Hamas deserves it, that posture deprives Israel of its optionality. No easy way for him to climb down should he need to. I keep thinking that if Netanyahu had not divided Israeli society, the IDF would likely have defended better against the Hamas attack, there would have been fewer atrociities, and vengeance/ punishment would be less urgent, but that is water under the bridge now.
From the Israeli military perspective, best if they can get what they want by keeping Gaza sealed off and arranging the evacuation of Gazan civilians to Egypt (not likely and not supported by world opinion). But Hamas would love to engage IDF in street to street fighting, with all the tunnels and fortifications they have. Even if Israel wins that fight it would be expensive in casualties I should think.
Possible next move: Iran has implicitly threatened to launch heavy Hezbollah rocket attacks that cripple Israel, if Israel enters Gaza. After that I just don't know where this ends. Does IAF (assuming rocket attacks don't damage it too much) try to take out Iran's oil infrastructure at Kharg Island/ Abadan? And then what?
This is the first time in my life that I have ever had that June 1914 feeling. I can't believe I am alone here.