Oct 14 Buonasera Mag
Day 234: ground war, Bilhorod, Brittany, Norway, Wagner, recruitment, Belarus, UA deportations, Starlink, Iran, Spain, TotalEnergies, HUN, Truss, Donnie-A&Ps-Kerpatenko, Leventhal, Schindler, Pelosi
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Note bien: I have not included information or comments of the current nominations and elected positions inside the Italian government. I’m a little to agitated to be objective at the moment.
The Institute of the Study of War
Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian troops are attempting to recapture positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast.
Damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge continues to impede the movement of Russian supplies and personnel to southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces made gains in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast northwest of Svatove on October 13.
Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in anticipation of potential Ukrainian attacks towards Kreminna.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast and claimed to make marginal advances south of Bakhmut.
Stories we’re following…
Breaking: Russian forces fired several rockets from Bilhorod region (RU) towards Kharkiv region (UA). Most of the rockets seem to have crashed and exploded on Russian territory. The power station near Luch is on fire and many areas of Bilhorod region are without electricity.
Mayor: Russian forces prevent civilians from evacuating occupied territories. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said in a briefing on Oct. 14 that over 4,000 people are stuck at a checkpoint at Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, awaiting entry into Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Reznikov: 609 high-precision missiles left in Russia. Russia has used 1,235 out of 1,844 Iskander, Kalibr, and air-launched cruise missiles since it started its all-out invasion in February, said Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Sergej Sumlenny: If this Ukrainian stats is true, RU have missiles for only 6-7 attacks like on Monday (80+ missiles).
And they need to save some reserve for any case. Without any chance for RU front bombers to use free-fall bombs, Russians will have only artillery (20-40km deep) in their arsenal. the Monday attack was more a desperate act. RU has launched over 80 of its missiles without achieving any military or economic effect. Moreover: UKR army has checked its air defence capabilities, and the West has decided to deliver high-tech air defense.
Putin: "The line of contact with Ukraine is 1.1 thousand kilometers, it is impossible to protect it only by those who serve in the army under contract, so we were forced to declare mobilization."
Putin said he believed the “partial mobilisation” of army reservists ordered last month would be completed in two weeks, boosting Russia’s fighting force. He told reporters after attending a summit in Kazakhstan on Friday that a total of 222,000 reservists would be called up, down from the 300,000 figure initially circulated.
A Russian submarine has reportedly been spotted off the French coast and escorted by the French Navy. “A Russian submarine was spotted sailing on the surface off the Brittany coast at the end of September and was escorted by the French navy.”
Media: Satellite images show 11 Russian strategic bombers close to Norwegian border. Russia has moved strategic bomber planes to the Kola peninsula, 32 kilometers from the Norwegian border, according to satellite imagery obtained by Faktisk, a Norwegian fact-checking website.
Ukraine and Russia said that 20 soldiers on both sides had been released as part of a prisoner exchange, 40 soldiers in all.
Group of Wagner soldiers who were tasked with torturing were captured after they were hiding out in liberated territory. Operation was carried out by Ukrainian SBU in recently liberated area of Kharkiv oblast.
In Belarus, a decision has been taken to begin a covert mobilisation, Nasha Niva reports citing several Belarusian army officers (a reliable source). It will reportedly take place under the guise of combat readiness checks and reservist call-ups.
Lukashenka says the regional grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia will include 70,000 Belarusian troops and they will be deployed in the "western direction" as reported via @MotolkoHelp.
Ukrainian military: Country is ready for possible attack from Belarus. Ukraine "takes measures" to ensure that Ukrainian troops are "in the appropriate number with the necessary weapons, military equipment, and combat potential," according to Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev.
An AP investigation found that officials have deported Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-held territories without consent, lied to them that they were not wanted by their parents, used them for propaganda and given them Russian citizenship.
Russia threatens to withdraw from UN-backed grain export agreement. Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, told Reuters that Moscow could withhold support for the UN-backed grain deal’s renewal next month if the UN doesn’t address its concerns.
Starlink: Elon Musk’s SpaceX has said it cannot afford to continue to donate satellite internet to Ukraine and has asked the US government to pick up the bill, according to a report, as the relationship between the billionaire and Kyiv breaks down.
Ukraine has said it will find a solution to keep Starlink working after reports that Elon Musk’s SpaceX can no longer pay for the critical satellite services. An adviser to president Volodymyr Zelensky said it expects Starlink to provide a “stable connection” until the end of negotiations, reports Reuters.
Spain to provide Ukraine with 4 Hawk air defense systems. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made the announcement about Spain's commitment to supply the American-made MIM-23 Hawk medium-range surface-to-air missile systems to Ukraine during a press briefing on Oct. 13.
Baerbock: "If Putin's method of threatening war crimes and nuclear weapons catches on, our children will grow up in an even more dangerous world."
EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg on Monday will not take any decisions on additional Iran sanctions linked to a transfer of drones from Tehran to Moscow, Reuters report a senior EU official said today.
French energy giant TotalEnergies is facing legal action for 'complicity in war crimes' for allegedly helping fuel Russian planes that have bombed Ukraine, a source close to the case said. A French and a Ukrainian association lodged a complaint against the group on Thursday.
French food company Danone giving up 90% of its dairy food business in Russia, with a potential write-off of up to 1 billion euros.
Hungary: Orban's government publishes a survey with the following message: “We believe that the sanctions are destroying us". Hungarian obstructionism of the EU sanctions agenda against Russia is intensifying.
Beth Rigby on the Truss saga: Cabinet minister tells me "this isn't going to last". Hunt a good choice who'll appeal to the moderate wing of the party, but Truss is not performing "She abandoned one firewall with policy change, then another firewall sacking her chancellor. The only firewall left is her". Kwasi Kwarteng has been fired as Chancellor- enter Jeremy Hunt.
The Jan. 6 panel plans to subpoena Donald Trump for testimony about his actions ahead of the Capitol riot, its most aggressive move so far. Rep. Cheney: “We must seek testimony, under oath, of January 6th’s key player.” Cheney says a number of key witnesses declined to answer questions to protect Trump: Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, John Eastman, Jeffrey Clark. Also notes Steve Bannon was convicted of contempt.
The Supreme Court rejected a request from Donald Trump to intervene in the litigation over documents seized from his Florida estate.
Remembering Yuriy Kerpatenko
On October 12, it became known that in Kherson, the conductor of the Kherson Regional Philharmonic Yuriy Kerpatenko was killed by Russian invaders in his apartment. He was shot through the door with automatic weapons.
Yuri refused to cooperate with the Russian occupation administration. Representatives of the Russian special services have recently often visited him at home, held conversations.
Baltic nations long warned about Russia. Now, maybe the West is listening- WaPo
“One lesson from this war is we should have listened to those who know Putin,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her State of the European Union speech last month. “They have been telling us for years that Putin would not stop.”
Since February, the Baltics and Poland have repeatedly called for the provision of more and faster military assistance, including more powerful offensive weapons, only to be rebuffed by the United States and Western European allies who wanted to make clear that they were not in a direct conflict with Russia.
Thread by Todd Leventhal: Russian disinformation
Many people dismiss propaganda and disinformation as marginal, but they are key to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Putin’s main propaganda message: if you arm Ukraine more than I wish, this could cause nuclear war.
Threatening nightmare scenarios is standard practice for RU prop/disinfo aimed at policy/opinion makers. See “Clandestine Disinformation and Agents of Influence,”.
Former KGB Foreign Intelligence head archivist Vasily Mitrokhin revealed this in “KGB Active Measures in Southwest Asia in 1980-82,” at KGB ACTIVE MEASURES IN SOUTHWEST ASIA IN 1980-82. Soviet disinformation to Pakistani President Zia ul-Haq: the US is plotting to oust you.
Soviet disinfo to India: PAK will use leverage from aiding anti-Soviet Afghan rebels to gain US permission to build a nuclear bomb, India’s nightmare scenario. Disinfo to Iran: PAK will let US build a major military base in Baluchistan, near Iranian border.
Soviet threat to Pakistan: we will foment rebellion in tribal areas if you continue aiding Afghan rebels, employing experts in institutes of Academy of Sciences.
Putin makes same type of nightmare scenario threats re: UKR. If West supplies UKR with weapons I disapprove of, this could cause the West’s nightmare scenario: nuclear war.
Broad goals of RU prop/disinfo are: discredit, divide, disarm, demoralize adversaries. See “Goals and Main Tactics of Russia’s Disinformation”.
In late 80s, USSR went hyper-conciliatory in desperate effort to stop Reagan’s staunch policies by “eliminating enemy image.” Now, Putin is hyper-alarmist in effort to scare West and restrict arms to UKR. Goal same: disarm adversary, using whatever message works best.
Special Report: U.S. firm supplied networking tech to maker of Russian missiles- Reuters
But even as the United States was taking actions to blunt MMZ Avangard's business, a publicly traded American technology company, Extreme Networks (EXTR.O), was providing MMZ Avangard with computer networking equipment for its office IT systems, according to emails and other business records seen by Reuters, as well as interviews with people familiar with the matter.
In a statement to Reuters, Extreme said that based on information provided by the news agency it believed equipment "may have" been sold to MMZ Avangard using a surrogate buyer.
