Oct 17: E-Stories
Day600 Avdiivka Azovstal CombatSit PutinMeets InsideRU BehindLines CN Maduro CZ Allies 700K Lindner OSCE ISRAEL POL Trump Arctic A&P Biden Noel Adveeva UKDef Noel Davis Tucker Bharara
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
US President Joe Biden will visit Israel on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced in the early hours of Tuesday in Tel Aviv. On Sunday, Biden on the question wether the US is able to both help Israel and Ukraine at the same time.
"For God's sake, we - the United States - are the most powerful nation in the history of the world. We can take care of both and still maintain our international defense. We have the capacity to do it. We have an obligation to do it. And if we don't, then who will do it?" he said.
What are the Chinese and Russians game-planning? Lots of options. Who else is there?
Stories we’re following…
The UAF reported that it shot down 11 out of 12 Shahed drones and 2 out of 5 Kh-59 missiles. Additionally an Iskander-M was launched which unfortunately wasn't shot down.
At least 6 people have been killed in Russian attacks on Ukraine in the past 24 hours. Two people were killed and three more injured in the Kherson area after more than 100 shells bombarded the region over the weekend, the local governor, Oleksandr Prokudin, wrote on social media, according to AP.
Partial blackout in Kherson as Russia strikes critical infrastructure. Russian forces struck critical infrastructure in Kherson with two guided bombs, causing a partial blackout and running water supply interruptions, Roman Mrochko, the head of the Kherson city military administration, reported in a series of Telegram posts on Oct. 15.
Governor: Russian airstrike kills 2 in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces launched a guided bomb against the village of Druzheliubivka in the Izium community, killing two civilians and injuring another one, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported on Oct. 15.
Azovstal Steelworks a year after the Russian occupation. 10,000 people had worked there.
Combat Situation Update
Russia hopes to break through Ukrainian defences in the Kupiansk-Lyman sector of the frontline in northeastern Ukraine, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces said on Monday, Reuters reports.
Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi was shown in video footage posted on the Telegram messaging app telling soldiers that the situation on the north-eastern frontline had “significantly escalated” in recent days, and the Russian military wanted “revenge” by retaking territory it once occupied in the area.
ISW: Russia tones down rhetoric about Avdiivka offensive. Facing heavy losses and stalled momentum in their attempt to encircle Avdiivka, Russian forces made no territorial gains on Oct. 15, while the Russian information space changed its tone regarding the offensive. (More below)
SBU attacks energy facility in Russia’s Belgorod region, causes blackout. Overnight Ukrainian drone attacks on an energy facility in Russia’s Belgorod region caused blackouts in the area, Ukrainska Pravda media outlet reported on Oct. 15, citing a Security Service (SBU) source.
Russia adds more missile carriers to Black Sea forces. Two new Russian naval frigates capable of launching up to 20 Kalibr cruise missiles are already on active combat duty in the Black Sea, according to the Ukrainian military.
A days-long attempt by Russian forces to storm a strategically important city in eastern Ukraine appears to be waning, Kyiv officials have claimed. Ukrainian forces repelled 15 Russian attacks from four directions on Avdiivka over the previous 24 hours, the Ukrainian general staff said on Monday. The location of Avdiivka, in the northern suburbs of Donetsk, grants Ukrainian forces artillery advantages over the city and could serve as a springboard for them to liberate Donetsk. Interview with Maria Avdeeva:
Oct 12: Ukrainian forces damage Russian patrol ship. Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, confirmed that Russian Project 22160 patrol ship 'Pavel Derzhavin' was damaged near Sevastopol.
Ukrainian Forces destroyed a bridge between Yasynuvata and Horlivka. This is a one of the main supply routes for Russian forces in their offensive towards Avdiivka.
"Ukraine will be leasing air defense systems to strengthen protection during the cold season," spokesman for the Air Force Yuriy Ignat said. "Unfortunately I cannot say which countries. This information is sensitive, partners didn’t want us to say it."
Behind the Lines
Activist: 5,000 human rights abuses recorded in Crimea during Russian occupation. "Russia is focusing its attention on the Crimean Tatars, branding them as potential terrorists and criminals," Alim Aliyev, the deputy director of the Ukrainian Institute, said during the "Global Crimea: Understanding Ukraine through the South" conference.
Ukrainian sappers find over 700,000 explosive devices. The Interior Ministry said that sappers have closely examined 152,000 hectares of territory and uncovered over 707,000 explosive objects.
Latvia has closed two checkpoints (Vientuli and Pededze) on the border with the Russian Federation. At these border crossings, concrete barriers have been installed
Confirmed: Russia constructs railway line to Mariupol to ease logistics on southern front. Russia is constructing a new railway line to occupied Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, reducing travel times for supplies to the Zaporizhzhia front lines, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its intelligence report on Oct. 15.
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin will speak separately to the leaders of Israel, Iran, Syria and Egypt and the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, on Monday, Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said.
Reuters reports Lavrov met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Monday, and exchanged views on the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Chinese foreign ministry said. Lavrov will visit North Korea on 18-19 October. The Russian foreign ministry announced the news on its website.
AP: Putin's visit to China signals necessity of Beijing's economic support. Putin told reporters on Oct. 13 that he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will discuss their nations' deepening economic ties during the Belt and Road Forum. Alexei Miller, the head of Gazprom, and Igor Sechin, the CEO of Russian oil company Rosneft, will be in Putin’s delegation during his visit to China this week.
Russian deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, said on Monday that Russia was expecting a visit from the Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro.
Putin won’t be travelling abroad…
Reuters reports that Lavrov said Moscow’s planned withdrawal of its ratification of the global treaty banning nuclear tests does not mean that Russia intends to conduct such a test, Tass news agency reported on Monday. Russia’s lower house of parliament, or State Duma, is set to vote on Tuesday on a bill to de-ratify the treaty.
The FSB chief in charge of recruiting the Ukrainian VIPs to ensure the three-day victory Putin expected, instead enriched himself with luxury real estate that he registered including in the name of the Ukrainian assets he was supposed to run.
Crimean Bridge now open: Marat Khusnullin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia for Construction and Regional Development, said that the Crimean Bridge was completely restored 18 days ahead of schedule and that traffic was now open on all four lanes. (Monique: Not for long.)
The commercial real estate market is breaking record after record due to the ongoing sale of foreign assets. In the third quarter, the Central Bank raised the key rate three times, bringing it from 7.5% to 13%, but investments in real estate over these three months reached 239 billion rubles - the maximum quarterly result in the entire history of observations, IBC Real Estate analysts calculated. It’s all about closing mega-deals with a number of “trophy” assets from foreign sellers leaving the Russian market.
US intelligence: North Korea has delivered more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions in recent weeks to Russia for use in Ukraine, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.
"Hungary is satisfied with energy cooperation with Russia, especially in the field of gas supplies, and does not consider it necessary to make changes to the long-term contract," Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said to state media RIA Novosti.
Allied Support
Expel Russia from OSCE: "Russia must be expelled from the OSCE because it is killing it from within," Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Kuleba said. "Moscow has taken the OSCE hostage, manipulating the principle of consensus and thus destroying the organization from the inside," he emphasized.
Reuters reports the German finance minister Christian Lindner said on Monday that it is indispensable that the US continues to participate in meeting Ukraine’s financial needs.
“The transatlantic partnership is of paramount importance for Europe as a whole, not only in economic terms, but especially because of our shared values,” Lindner said.
The US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, said support for Ukraine remained a “top priority” for the US and Europe, reaffirming the Biden administration’s commitment to support Kyiv “for as long as it takes”.
“We cannot allow Ukraine to lose the war for economic reasons when it has shown an ability to succeed on the battlefield,” Yellen said in comments prepared for her third meeting with the Eurogroup euro zone finance ministers.
Air Force: Western countries lease Ukraine air defense systems. Western countries leased Ukraine air defense systems, said Yuri Ihnat, the Air Force's spokesperson. "The fact that Ukraine can have these systems for use during the heating season is a significant and positive sign," he said.
Croatia and Spain will jointly allocate €6.5 million for humanitarian demining of Ukraine. This was announced during the International Conference of Donors on Humanitarian Demining in Ukraine, held in Croatia.
In the coming months, The Czech Republic and Denmark will supply Ukraine with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, hand guns and ammunition of both new production and from the warehouses of Czech private companies at the expense of the Danish government.
In the next few months, Ukrainian fighters with be training on the Dutch F-16s at a new training center in Romania, said Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.
The government of Estonia approved an amendment to the law to use frozen assets of Russian persons under sanctions to compensate for damage from the war inflicted on Ukraine.
Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak reports that G7 countries have frozen a total of $280 billion in Russian assets and promised to keep them until Russia pays reparations to Ukraine.
Preet Bharara: I spoke with former State Dept Middle East peace negotiator Aaron Miller about the biggest questions around the Israel-Hamas war. Listen: http://bit.ly/46RlVzn
Georgia's Constitutional Court authorizes impeachment procedure against president. Georgia's Constitutional Court ruled that President Salome Zourabichvili violated the Constitution by her European trip and authorized the impeachment procedure against her, the Echo of Caucasus reported on Oct. 16. The motion will now move to the parliament, where it has to be supported by at least 100 lawmakers in order to pass.
Around the World
Foreign nationals in Gaza to be allowed passage into Egypt. Foreign passport holders trapped in Gaza will be allowed to cross into Egypt via the Rafah border starting on Oct. 16 at 9:00 a.m. local time, a Palestinian official told NBC News.
The Israeli army announced that they killed the head of Hamas' general intelligence in the Gaza Strip in Khan Younis.
A message from the IDF:
Israeli authorities have denied reports that the IDF has agreed to a ceasefire in southern Gaza to allow the Rafah border crossing to be opened for aid to flow into the enclave and foreigners to leave.
Noel Reports: Columns of IDF heavy equipment on the border with Gaza keep appearing. We are not long off from a ground attack.
Oct 15: The Israeli ground offensive into the Gaza Strip was supposed to start this weekend, but was postponed due to the weather. The New York Times reports this based on three Israeli military officials. Weather conditions such as cloud cover would make it difficult for pilots and drone operators to provide ground troops with cover from the air.
Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari said the confirmed number of hostages being held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza is 199. Among them are many elderly, children and women.
Biden readies spending package of over $2 billion including aid for Israel, Ukraine. When asked whether the new support tranche will be worth $2 billion, Sullivan said that "the the number is going to be significantly higher than that." "But it will, as I said, certainly include the necessary military equipment to defend freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity in Ukraine, and to help Israel defend itself as it fights its terrorist foes."
BBC interviews Arab Guest Mohammad Kabiya:
Britain will send two naval ships to the Eastern Mediterranean and will begin surveillance flights over Israel in a show of support.
Putin held a phone call with his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, Reuters reports.
Putin has had a phone call with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, Russia’s TASS news agency quoted the Syrian leader’s office as saying on Monday. Both Putin and Assad favoured the immediate delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza, it quoted Assad’s office as saying.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh-while Hamas is calling on Palestinians to stay in Gaza-is sitting pretty in Doha, certainly not in Gaza and in Doha he "receives," writes the Hamas channel, Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian.
Oct 15: The Palestinian Ministry of Health reports that the death toll from airstrikes and shelling in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas has reached 2329 people while 9024 were injured.
The Israeli air force: senior Hamas commander Muataz Eid from the southern district was killed during an airstrike.
Oct 14: The Chairman of the Hamas Politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, appealed to the residents of Gaza not to evacuate to the south of the strip. “We remain on our land,” he said.
Oct 12: According to Syrian media, two airports in Syria (Damascus and Alepo) were attacked. It is assumed that the strikes have been carried out by Israel, aiming for Iranian equipment intended for Hezbollah.
Supporters of Hamas in London.
A judge imposed a limited gag order on Donald Trump, barring him from publicly attacking witnesses or prosecutors in his federal election case. The order pits the First Amendment rights of a presidential candidate against the responsibilities of a judge to protect witnesses and to preserve the integrity of the proceedings in the criminal case.
Elections in Poland
Poland’s ruling populists appear to be heading for electoral defeat, in what would be one of the most consequential European political turnarounds of recent years, if exit polls showing a victory for an opposition coalition led by Donald Tusk prove correct.
The exit polls suggested that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party received the most votes, but that Tusk’s Civic Coalition together with two other opposition parties should have a route to a parliamentary majority.
Tusk, who was Polish prime minister between 2007 and 2014 and then became European Council president for five years, declared victory almost immediately after polls closed on Sunday, claiming there was no route for PiS to claim a third term in office.
Only Good News Today’ — Russia’s Propagandists Delight as Israelis Die—Julia Davis
While the Western world reacted with horror to the heart-breaking scenes of Hamas gunmen preying on Israeli civilians on October 7, the reaction in Russia was markedly different.
Kremlin-endorsed propagandists celebrated the fighting as a distraction to tear the West’s eyes from Ukraine, produced new conspiracy theories to explain the news, and delighted in the discomfort and fear of Russian Jews who have emigrated to Israel.
There’s as yet no evidence that Russia knew of the impending attack, although it has fostered ties with Hamas. In March, Hamas reportedly sent a high-level delegation to Russia and held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, warning the Kremlin that the group’s “patience” with Israel was “running out.” Senior Hamas figures also visited Russia in May and September 2022. The group has said its attack was supported by Iran and other countries but did not name them.
But while the Kremlin may not have been directly involved, many of its citizens are openly antisemitic, as are senior officials. Military correspondent Dmitry Steshin, known for his overtly genocidal statements about Ukrainians, posted on his Telegram channel Russky Tarantas that there should be “not a drop of pity or sympathy” for Israelis, including former Russian citizens. Steshin complained about people who left Russia for Israel, describing them as “relocants.”
He wrote: “We stayed here and are still standing knee-deep in blood. Let the ones responsible for our tears do that as well! Or let them run, to refresh their historical memory. Greetings to the relocants!”
Sergey Mardan, one of Russia’s best-known propagandists and host of the eponymous show on the state channel Solovyov Live, wrote on his Telegram channel that he was happy for the Russians who moved to Israel because they didn’t want to live in a country that is at war with its neighbors.
He added, “This mess is beneficial for Russia, because the globalist toad will be distracted from Ukraine and will get busy trying to put out the eternal Middle Eastern fire.” Mardan explained, “Iran is our real military ally. Israel is an ally of the United States. Therefore, choosing a side is easy!”
During his show, “Mardan,” the host made a bizarre comparison between Palestine and Russia, claiming that Russia “has been occupied since 1991” and is only now seeking to correct the situation. Russian propagandists frequently claim that Ukraine is “occupying” Russian lands, which Russia is fighting to reclaim.
Head of RT, Margarita Simonyan, wrote on her X/Twitter account, “The country that is not at war with its neighbors is again at war with its neighbors. We await the exodus of Russian pacifists. Then again, we won’t hold our breath.”
Host of the show “Morning Z” on Solovyov Live, Boris Yakemenko, blamed the violence on gender issues (presumably a reference to LGBT+ debates in the West), stating, “What is happening today in different corners of the world shows that the world has come to a dangerous point, beyond which lies the new world. Crossing into it will be preceded by horrendous casualties, because of a feeling of total injustice, insanity, a total lack of understanding of what is happening, with all of these genders, with all of these strange phenomena!”
Yakemenko read caustic messages from members of his audience, pondering which citizenship Russian relocants would choose this time. He addressed former Russian compatriots, telling them to “Go ahead and run, or hide in bomb shelters.”
During his show on October 7, Vladimir Solovyov, described the Hamas attack as a “loud slap” to Israel and its intelligence services, assigning all fault to America as a “guarantor of peace in the region” and baselessly blaming Ukraine for providing arms to Hamas. (Hamas’ main arms supplier is actually Iran). [continue]
With eye toward Russia and China, NORTHCOM concludes special mission in the Arctic—Patrick Tucker
Last month, just days after four Russian military aircraft flew in Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, teams of U.S. special operations forces conducted a mission on St. Lawrence island in the Bering Sea, just 50 miles away from continental Russia, as well as on Shemya Island, which sits in Alaska’s remote Aleutian island chain. The objective of what NORTHCOM is calling Operation Polar Dagger was to extend U.S capabilities to monitor the air and sea domain in the Arctic and showcase how well special operator air, land, and sea teams work together in harsh, long-distance environments like the Bering Sea.