Oct 18 Buonasera Mag
Day 237: Kherson, UA energy, Iran, Energoatom, NS, BEL-KGB, Estonia, EU, NATO, Wallace, CND, UN, Czech, Truss, Disinfo network-A&Ps-Alvarova, Reznikov, Kross, Rekabi, Lucas, Troy, Pavlou
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Massive attack on energy infrastructure facilities this morning. Kyiv - three strikes on an energy supply facility in Desnyansky district. Dnipro, 2 strikes at energy infrastructure facility. “Serious damage”. Zhytomyr - no electricity and water supply. Ph from Dnipro.
President Zelensky has said on Twitter that “Since 10 October, 30% of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country.” Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko has appealed to residents to try and conserve electricity today and stock up on drinking water after Russian strikes on the city. He posted to Telegram to confirm that some areas of the city have been left without power.
Ukraine is breaking diplomatic relations with Iran, - Dmytro Kuleba, MFA of Ukraine. "I am submitting to the president a proposal to sever diplomatic relations with Iran, after the country has become an accomplice in crimes," Kuleba said.
Energoatom: Russia again kidnaps Zaporizhzhia plant workers. Russian forces in occupied Enerhodar have kidnapped Oleh Kostiukov, head of IT service at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and Oleh Osheka, the assistant director general, according to Energoatom.
Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin’s announced that mobilization in the capital has ended. It was likely either coordinated with the Kremlin or something he lobbied for successfully with the Putin administration. The draft has disrupted the façade of life as usual in Moscow, which Sobyanin has worked hard to maintain during the war in Ukraine.
Russian Presidential Human Rights Council member Kirill Kabanov reported Monday that his office regularly receives messages about conscripts around the country either not receiving the payments the government has promised or receiving them only after delays.
Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats confirmed to Reuters.
A preliminary investigation of damages on the two Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Danish part of the Baltic Sea show that the leaks were caused by “powerful explosions”, Copenhagen police said in a statement on Tuesday, Reuters reports.
Iryna Matviyishin: “Soon Ukraine will turn into the Syria of 2015. No water, no electricity, the whole country is in ruins,” - Russian telegram channel rejoicing, more than 4 thousand likes. Under each message alike. The same in comments to Simonyan’s posts.
A high-ranking Belarusian KGB officer escaped to the EU. The regime fears that he might become an essential source of information. The security services immediately began a campaign to discredit him. Lukashenka is terrified of betrayal and holds a massive internal purge.
The German ambassador to the UK, Miguel Berger, has made a call for sanctions against Iran over the allegations the country has supplied weaponry to Russia, a claim which Iran denies.
Parliament of Estonia has officially declared Russian regime as a terrorist regime. “We support the people, the army & the whole of sovereign Ukraine with all means available to us. Putin’s regime with his nuclear threats has turned Russia the biggest threat to peace in the whole world.”
Estonian Def Min Pevkur said that Lockheed Martin promised “they have increased the production” on HIMARS and “confirmed that there is a slot for Estonia,” which ordered 6 HIMARS in July. Lockheed has orders in the works for Ukraine, Poland and others.
NATO will provide Kyiv with the machinery which will combat UAVs in the coming days, we are talking about hundreds of active jamming stations, — NATO chief Stoltenberg, says.
Ben Wallace has hastily cancelled an early afternoon appearance before the Commons defence committee for an urgent trip to Washington DC, prompting speculation as to the purpose of the sudden visit.
Canada is imposing sanctions on 34 individuals and one entity that it says are complicit in dissemination of Russian disinformation and propaganda, the Canadian foreign ministry said on Monday.
ExxonMobil exits the Russian market after a swift expropriation of its assets. ExxonMobil had been in negotiations with the Russian authorities to sell its more than $4 billion in assets — including its largest Russian investment, a 30% stake in the Sakhalin-1 oilfield in the Russian Far East — since March. “I can confirm that we got out safely," a company representative told Reuters on Monday.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine voted in favour of the draft resolution on "recognizing the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation and condemning the genocide of the Chechen people."
The EU Parliament voted in favor of the proposal of the Sweden Democrats and the ECR Group to hold a debate and adopt a resolution on the recognition of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
A UN commission has found Russian forces were responsible for the “vast majority” of human-rights violations in the beginning of its war in Ukraine. Its report looked at events in the four northern provinces of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy from Russia’s invasion on February 24 until March.
EU member and Russian ally Hungary refuses to participate in the EU training mission for Ukrainian soldiers or pay anything towards it. For years, NATO member Hungary refused to participate in NATO programs with Ukraine and has blocked high-level talks with Ukraine.
Looks like some states are cleaning up house: The Security Information Service of the Czech Republic reports that a Russian agent with ties to Czech journalists and politicians. According to counterintelligence, he used them to establish a pro-Russian political agenda, coordinate public appearances by politicians, or mediate topics that are in line with Russia's interests. The BIS stated this in its 2021 annual report. Furthermore, the head of Germany's national cybersecurity agency has been dismissed following reports of possible ties to Russian intelligence, the Interior Ministry says (via AP).
PM Truss has spoken to president Macron about the latest situation in Ukraine. “They agreed the UK and France will continue to work closely together with allies to support Ukraine and coordinate our response to Russian aggression.
RUMINT: Boris Johnson being considered as a substitute for PM Liz Truss. As per Good Morning Britain: 'Boris is very popular still amongst members and all the polls say that the public still likes Boris. Boris is the only alternative'
Elnaz Rekabi has gone missing
If reports are true and Rekabi continues to be missing or taken to prison, this is clear signal from #Iran regime one month after killing of Mahsa Amini that there is no room for change and that its only answer to dissent is cruelty. It punishes its best...
Reza Zarei, head of Iran's Climbing Federation tricked Rekabi into the Iranian embassy in Seoul based on orders from Tehran. BBC confirming that phone & passport taken from her. She reached fourth place in Asia before disappearing.
Edward Lucas: Active Measures newsletter
You won’t have read about this yet in the media, but arm-twisting and lobbying are already under way to find the next NATO secretary-general.
The obvious choice would be someone from “eastern” Europe, because the job has always been held by someone from the “old West”. In fairness, the new SG should be a woman: all previous incumbents have been male. And she should come from a country that spends 2% on defence. She should also be an impressive public figure with a great record in office, excellent people skills and strong backing from her home country.
Huge Russia-based disinformation network about Ukraine war disabled- CBC News
The operation involved more than 60 websites created to mimic legitimate news sites including the Guardian newspaper in the United Kingdom and Germany's Der Spiegel. Instead of the actual news reported by those outlets, however, the fake sites contained links to Russian propaganda and disinformation about Ukraine.
More than 1,600 fake Facebook accounts were used to spread the propaganda to audiences in Germany, Italy, France, the U.K. and Ukraine. The findings highlighted both the promise of social media companies to police their sites and the peril that disinformation continues to pose.
Warner, Project Fear was right all along- The Telegraph
Downbeat predictions by the Treasury and others on the economic consequences of leaving the EU, contemptuously dismissed at the time by Brexit campaigners as "Project Fear", have been on a long fuse, but they have turned out to be overwhelmingly correct, and if anything have underestimated both the calamitous loss of international standing and the scale of the damage that six years of policy confusion and ineptitude has imposed on the country.
Dave Troy, The Wide Angle- The Washington Spectator
At the invitation of Hamilton Fish, editor of the Spectator, I’m now also looking forward to publishing a monthly column here, where I can share insights and analysis in something closer to real time, while also pursuing long-form, sense-making investigative work.
Western analysts should expand their thinking about the nature of this conflict, its scope, and the ideas that animate it. Tuning the knobs on the set — voting out a few politicians, or sending aid to Ukraine — is necessary but not sufficient to address the broadly scoped 4th generation total and spiritual war we now find ourselves in. Grasping the breadth of the conflict requires looking in places few care to look, and applying imagination far beyond what we’re used to seeing displayed on cable television news.
