Oct 19 Buonasera Mag
Day 238: Kherson, martial law, deportations, 1,162, Isreal, EU Parl, RU railways, Girkin, EU, ROC- A&Ps- Hill, Kokcharov, Grozev, Corera, Biden, Troy, Davis, Radicalized Pod, Gruni, Gerashchenko
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Putin says martial law will be introduced in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions- “All our soldiers must be equipped with everything necessary. We are working on solving very complex, large-scale tasks to protect our people, our future,” said Putin. He also announced that extra security powers will be granted to the Russian-installed leaders of the occupied regions.
Roman Starovoyt, governor of Kursk in Russia, which is one of eight areas bordering Ukraine that Putin’s announcement today has put on to a special war economic footing, has posted a video to Telegram to say that the first meetings about the new measures will take place tomorrow, and “rapid response measures related to security in the region will be taken.”
Max Seddon: Kremlinologists will note that Gerasimov and Zolotov, who aren't permanent security council members, are there, and Shoigu – who is a permanent member – is not.
Stories we’re following…
Explosion and fire at an electrical sub-station in Bilhorod on the territory of the Russian terrorist state (so-called Russian Federation).
“For now, 1,162 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovogod, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Lugansk, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions remain cut off from electricity,” spokesperson Oleksandr Khorunzhyi told a briefing.
The "evacuation" (deportation) of Kherson residents has begun according to Russian media sources. Locals will be "moved" to the other side of the Dnieper. It is not known how many people will be forcibly displaced, but there are serious concerns this entire population to be used as a shield.
A senior Ukrainian official has accused Russia of staging a “propaganda show” in occupied Kherson after Russian-installed officials said they were preparing to defend the city from imminent Ukrainian attack and urged civilians to evacuate.
UK Min of Defence: “Eight months into the invasion, major elements of Russia’s military leadership are increasingly dysfunctional. At the tactical level, there is almost certainly a worsening shortage of capable Russian junior officers to organise and lead newly mobilised reservists,” it said in Twitter.
Poor lower-level leadership is likely worsening the low morale and poor unit cohesion in many parts of the Russian force.
Four of the five generals with direct operational command of elements of the invasion in February 2022 have now been dismissed. Their replacements have so far done little to improve Russia’s battlefield performance.
The lack of command continuity will likely be more disruptive than in a Western military because under Russian doctrine the development of plans sits largely with the commander personally, rather than as a collective effort across a broader staff.
Israel defence minister Gantz says Israel will help Ukraine with smart warning systems against aerial threats, but adds "We will not transfer weapons".
The United States, Britain and France plan to raise the issue of Iranian weapons transfers to Russia during a closed-door U.N. Security Council meeting on Wednesday, diplomats told Reuters.
Ursula von der Leyen at the EU Parliament: Russia’s attacks against civilian infrastructure are war crimes. Cutting off men, women, children of water, electricity & heating - these are acts of pure terror. And we have to call it as such.
Russian railways are running low on cassette bearings and have taken 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more at risk. This is serious, since Russia is heavily dependent on rail transport.
Kyiv accused the Red Cross of “inaction” over Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia, saying a lack of visits to detained soldiers and civilians meant they were vulnerable to being tortured.
Russian commanders do business on the "special operation", offering the Russian military to buy off the first front line, the Department of Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. "If a soldier does not want to be on the front line, he is obliged to pay and he will be taken to the rear. The most common military business in the hot parts of the front, where the Russian army units suffer losses and an hourly stay in the trench may become the last."
Intelligence chief: Russian war criminal Girkin is in Ukraine. The Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate Head Kyrylo Budanov said on Oct. 18 that Russian war criminal Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, is currently in a Russian-occupied part of Ukraine.
Igor Danchenko, the analyst behind the so-called Steele dossier, was acquitted. It’s another blow to the Trump-era special counsel John Durham. Mr. Danchenko was acquitted on four counts of lying to the F.B.I. about one of his sources for a notorious dossier of unproven assertions and rumors about former President Trump and Russia.
The EU has provisionally agreed to impose sanctions over the use of Iranian-made drones in Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to three EU diplomats.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has massively increased its imports of solar panels from China. A sign that this gas crisis might ultimately accelerate Europe’s green transformation.
The Russian Orthodox Church is buying up buildings in Norway with a view of military bases, writes Dagbladet. In recent years, the Church has purchased several properties, one of them has a full view of the country's most important naval base, Haakonsvern.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy “signaled that additional aid to Ukraine, now in the ninth month of war with Russia, is unlikely if Republicans have a House majority.”
Fiona Hill: ‘Elon Musk Is Transmitting a Message for Putin’- Politico
Now, despite the setbacks Russia has suffered on the battlefield, Hill thinks Putin is undaunted. She sees him adapting to new conditions, not giving up. And she sees him trying to get the West to accede to his aims by using messengers like billionaire Elon Musk to propose arrangements that would end the conflict on his terms.
“Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they’re just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin,” Hill says.
Corera, Ex-UK pilots lured to help Chinese military, MoD says- BBC
Former British military pilots are being lured to China with large sums of money to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military, it is claimed. Up to 30 former UK military pilots are thought to have gone to train members of China's People's Liberation Army.
The UK is issuing an intelligence alert to warn former military pilots against working for the Chinese military. Attempts to headhunt pilots are ongoing and had been ramping up recently, western officials say.
Domestic politics and nuclear blackmail
In less than a month, elections will be held to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states, as well as five non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories. The Democrats now hold a slight majority in the House of Representatives, but will that hold? How much is foreign policy impacting on domestic politics?
In the Italian general election, it’s difficult to assess. The parties of the right-wing coalition that are traditionally pro-Kremlin actually lost votes to Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy which professed it’s support for Ukraine and disdain for Putin and his genocidal war.
That said, the absentee vote was significant. Most analysts report that it was the center and left leaning voters that didn’t show up to the polls, and it could be said that the faux pacifist arguments and propaganda pushed by the Kremlin actually kept these voters at home. Italian voters were fed a steady diet of nuclear armaggedon propaganda almost every night on TV and through social media vectors leading up to the general election.
One other consideration is that the American public will have their own issues that come into play in these elections so looking towards Italy may not be helpful.
We’ll be following the next few weeks to see what narratives are being pumped into the information vectors, and report on those to keep you informed.
Retired U.S. generals, admirals take top jobs with Saudi crown prince- WaPo
More than 500 retired U.S. military personnel — including scores of generals and admirals — have taken lucrative jobs since 2015 working for foreign governments, mostly in countries known for human rights abuses and political repression, according to a Washington Post investigation.
In Saudi Arabia, for example, 15 retired U.S. generals and admirals have worked as paid consultants for the Defense Ministry since 2016. The ministry is led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, who U.S. intelligence agencies say approved the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post contributing columnist, as part of a brutal crackdown on dissent.
New episode of Radicalized Pod with David Pepper
Thread by Giovanni Gruni…this week in la bella Italia…
New Italian Government not even started yet and shit is hitting the fan already. A surreal thread.
Today Berlusconi claimed he had an exchange of “sweet” letters with V Putin. They also exchanged gifts in the form of vodka and wine. Putin apparently claimed Berlusconi is one of his 5 best friends. Berlusconi’s party is expressing the new Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs.
In the meanwhile a photo of Mussolini appeared on the wall of a room in one of the government buildings. It was then removed “to avoid instrumental criticism”. The l new President of the Senate however claimed that this was “cancel culture”.
About that. The new President of the Senate has a number of fascist, let’s say, souvenirs in his home. These include a small statue of the Duce he proudly showed in a video available online.
The new President of the lower house has an history of discriminatory claims against minorities and took explicit positions against sanctioning Russia. At the same time Meloni is attacking people (like me I guess) who discredit Italian abroad criticising the country.
A number of intellectuals which you would normally consider on the left wrote a petition in favour of giving parts of Ukraine to Russia to end the war. The Pope is taking the same position. A number of manifestations are being organised by various parties with similar positions.