Oct 2: E-Stories
Day585 DayoftheDefenders RUattacksUman CombatSit BehindLines grain InRussia Medvedev AlliesUKUS NATO Slovakia USRepublicans IOC A&P UKDef Matviichuk UADef Rosenberg Peterson IWP
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
“Ukrainians want peace more than anyone else. But you can't advocate peace. Peace will not come if the invaded country stops fighting: It won't be peace, but occupation, and occupation is just another form of war. “- Oleksandra Matviichuk via Vox Europe.
Stories we’re following…
The Russian Federation launched another attack on Ukraine, using about 40 Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs, from the south. Air defence assets and personnel destroyed 30 Russian Shahed drones in Odesa, Mykolaiv and Vinnytsia oblasts. In total, the Russians launched 8 missile strikes and 99 airstrikes.
Overnight on Sept 30, Russia launched Shahed drones. An industrial infrastructure in Uman was hit, and fires broke out in warehouses on the property. In particular, where grain was stored. One person was previously injured. She was taken to the hospital.
Explosions reported in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv oblasts. At least four explosions were heard in Kharkiv, city Mayor Ihor Terekhov said via his official Telegram channel in the early hours of Oct. 1. Two explosions were also reported in the city of Snihurivka in Mykolaiv Oblast, according to regional authorities.
Zaporizhzhia missile strike injures 5, damages infrastructure. Five people were injured on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia as the result of a Russian missile attack that also damaged five homes and a unit of infrastructure on Sept. 30, according to the regional military administration.
A Ukrainian drone attack was reported by locals in Smolensk, Russia. The locals reported that the UAVs were shot down over the city and that there were several explosions. The mayor of Smolensk urged residents not to leave their homes and refrain from out-of-town trips.
Another Ukrainian drone attack was reported on the Russian Black Sea coastal city of Adler, just south of Sochi. In Dhzankoy, occupied Crimea, explosions were also reported. Ukrainian shelling of Russia’s Bryansk oblast damaged two administrative buildings and several houses today, said regional governor Alexander Bogomaz.(video from locals in Smolensk)
Ukrainian drones have attacked Sochi in Krasnodar Krai, striking a helicopter parking lot. Sources of Ukrainska Pravda report that the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine is responsible for the attack.
On Sunday evening, there was a large-scale gas explosion in Tobolsk, Russia. Preliminary info states there are vicitims.
Combat Situation Update
Noel Reports: Novoprokopivka-Verbove axis- Area of Ukrainian control south of Robotyne slightly decreased. Mainly due to Russian counterattacks, trying to regain control over trenches. Russia has intensified bombing of UA positions with FAB-500. No changes in/towards Verbove confirmed.
Vuhledar-Volnovakha —Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes and drone attacks on Russian troops in both Pavlivka and Mykilske. Preliminary reports that the AFU advanced north of Mykilske, establishing control over additional treelines. Needs confirmation.
Bakhmut-Kurdyumivka—Ukrainian and Russian sources contradict each other here. RU forces speak of a counterattack near Klishchiivka (visually confirmed) while UA sources speak of progress north of Klishchiivka. Fighting on-going east of Andriivka. The Russian forces have sent reinforcements.
North of Novoprokopivka, the main battle ensures over the heavily fortified trench network which is still partially being contested, writes Noel Reports.
Special forces extract two soldiers who had been in occupied land since start of invasion. The Navy's intelligence arm informed about the two Ukrainians who had been in occupied territory since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The two operators had engaged in combat against the Russian forces and were too seriously injured to slip out alone. Local residents were concealing them, according to the Navy.
Defence of Ukraine: As I have said before, Ukrainian stratcoms are simply the best out there right now. We number the days of the full-scale war from Feb 24, 2022 Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s war started in 2014.
To the skeptics out there who lack confidence in the strength and abilities of our Ukrainian soldiers, we want to say this: We are moving forward. We are defeating the enemy. We will win. We wish to thank everyone who has stood by our side since day one, and who continues to do so. We will always treasure your friendship.
Grain Initiative: Three more Bulk carriers left ports in Ukraine through the corridor opened by the Ukrainian Navy. The carriers ENEIDA, YING HAO 01 and AZARA have all set course south. The DANNY BOY, FORZA DORIA, IDA, OLGA and NEW LEGACY are on their way to Ukraine.
Meanwhile in Russia
Agence France-Presse is reporting that Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former leader, marked the one year anniversary of the Kremlin claiming four Ukrainian terrorities as its own by suggesting Russia may annex more of Ukraine.
“The special military operation will continue until the complete destruction of the Nazi regime in Kyiv,” said Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chair of Russia’s security council. “Victory will be ours. And there will be more new regions within Russia.”
This account does vox popoli street interviews with Russians. In this case, two young lads and their motivation for waging a criminal war against Ukraine: they can travel there without visas. They may or may not be representative of the younger generation in Russia—these two certainly believe war is justified.
The Russian government is reducing spending on all key projects for the development of medicine in order to pay the growing “bill” for the war with Ukraine, which at the end of the first two years will exceed 10 trillion rubles, and by the end of the third year may exceed 20 trillion. In 2024, federal treasury spending on the national Healthcare project will be cut by 10% - from 321.3 to 289.9 billion rubles, according to the explanatory note to the budget law, which was submitted to the State Duma on Friday.
From today, Russian banks are required to use only domestic services for internal money transfers.
Allied Support
British Minister of Defense Grant Shapps said that he had held talks about moving “more training and production” of military equipment into Ukraine and called on more British defence firms to set up factories in Ukraine.
US House of Representatives passes funding bill to avoid government shutdown. NBC News reported on Sept. 30 that the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bipartisan funding bill to avoid a government shutdown but that the deal currently lacks additional defense aid for Ukraine. Following a passage of a bill to avoid a government shutdown, top U.S. Senate leaders issued a rare bipartisan statement affirming their commitment to Ukraine. They expect the Senate will work "to ensure the U.S. government continues to provide critical and sustained security and economic support for Ukraine."
President Biden reacted on the passing of the budget to fund government agencies for 45 days without aid to Ukraine.
“We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted. I hope the Speaker will stand by his commitment to the people of Ukraine and provide the support needed to help at this critical time."
Nato has deployed Airborne Warning and Control System (Awacs) surveillance planes to Šiauliai, Lithuania “to monitor Russian military activity near the alliance’s borders”. The first two aircrafts arrived Thursday.
“Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has increased our focus on the security environment in the Baltic Sea region,” said acting NATO Spokesperson Dylan White. “Our Awacs can detect aircraft and missiles hundreds of kilometres away, making them a key early warning capability for Nato.”
Ukraine celebrates the Day of the Defenders: Ukraine thanks all its citizens in Ukraine and abroad who are actively defending the sovereignty of the state: its land, its people, and its right to exist. This is the definition of sovereignty, which this video so masterfully demostrates. It’s emotional, and gets to the heart of what it means to stand up for Ukraine.
I’ve come to realise wholeheartedly that the battle being fought in Ukraine for its sovereignty is meant to protect my security in Italy and in the democratic world. We are not on the front lines physically: we do, however, need to defend our institutions, information space, economies, and our way of life from daily Russian active measures. Russia will not stop until it reaches its goal of expanding its perceived empire by any and all means. It’s that simple.
Josep Borrell: "With the 09:00 minute of silence, we remember those who paid the highest price to defend their country & our collective freedom."
So my gratitude goes to the defenders in Ukraine and abroad, to those who we hardly ever see, working silently, methodically, patiently, courageously, behind the scenes. They are the real “heroes and she-roes”.
“No one should or will be able to "turn off" our resilience, endurance, grit, and fortitude. Neither on a regular nor an emergency basis. None of them have an "expiration date" an "end date", or a final point after which we would stop resisting and fighting. There is only one such point: our victory. As we bring it closer every day, we say, "We will fight for as long as it takes”.
Around the World
Early parliamentary elections were held in Slovakia. According to the preliminary results, the pro-European party PS lost to the pro-Russian party SMER-SD. SMER-SD leader Robert Fico has a pro-Russian position, calling for the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation. At one of the rallies, he stated that the war began in 2014, allegedly when "Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started killing Russian citizens" in Donbas. Fico has promised to completely cut military support to Ukraine: on Sunday evening he said:
"We have bigger problems than helping Ukraine. We believe that Ukraine is a huge tragedy for everyone. If SMER-SD is entrusted to form a government, we will do everything possible to ensure that peace talks take place as soon as possible.”
Monique: Fico’s party belongs in the ECR Group in the European Parliament alongside Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. In terms of power within the EU system, the ECR Group has 66 seats or 9.9% of the representatives—so very little power to swing anything there. What is concerning is that Fico is in line with Viktor Orban’s attempts at delaying aid and providing a safe haven for Russian and Chinese influence, intelligence and investment in their countries. Orban has an ally in plain sight for his opposition to the EU’s support for Ukraine.
Fico must now form the government so we’ll be keeping an eye on the other players that come into it, and the new government tries to curb aid to Ukraine.
With the regards to the Progressive Slovakia Party, it is new political force and has gained 18% of the vote. It can grow and bring forward the values of liberal democracy in the future.
On Sept 28, the Italian energy price authority announced an 18.6% increase in energy bills in the last quarter of 2023. The following day, Russia’s Ambassador to Italy, Alexei Paramonov, attempted to weaponise the issue – which is closely linked to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine – by reverting to the usual propaganda narratives on energy and sanctions.
“Italy, on its own initiative, has already reduced the supplies of cheap Russian natural gas from 30 billion to 8 billion cubic meters and intends to abandon them altogether,” said Ambassador Paramonov, adding that the decision also came with the increased costs of finding new suppliers and logistics. “At the same time, bills and prices of basic necessities have skyrocketed. We also feel it ourselves by paying the embassy’s energy bills, which have almost doubled since the beginning of this year,” said the diplomat.
What he didn’t say. According to the tariff update, energy prices are still 57% cheaper compared to the same period in 2022, when the Kremlin was actively manipulating gas shipments to increase tension in Europe and jack up the prices.
Nolan Peterson: Hemingway’s warning
In 1938 Ernest Hemingway reported on the Spanish Civil War, which he saw as a chance for democracies to stop the spread of fascism before it engulfed the world in war. He published an article, ‘Dying, Well or Badly,’ accompanied by pictures of dead soldiers from that war. He wrote:
‘If the democratic nations allow Spain to be over-run by the fascists through their refusal to allow the legal Spanish government to buy and import arms to combat a military insurrection and fascist invasion, they will deserve whatever fate that brings them. […] But no matter what excuse the democratic countries may have for their ignorance of the necessity for beating the fascists in Spain, history will label their actions in 1936 and 1937, when they refused to allow Spain to arm herself to fight their enemies, as criminal stupidity.
‘Meantime all day, and all night, it goes on. The resistance of the republican government in Spain against the first combined fascist invasion is the great holding attack to save what we call civilization. If Italy could be beaten in Spain, as Napoleon was beaten there, the Berlin-Rome-Tokyo axis would be broken before it ever had a chance to make the war it threatens. But because it has gone on so long the people who do not have to go hungry, fight and die in it, get quite tired of the whole thing. They do not even want to hear about it.
‘Perhaps these pictures will make it seem a little more real. Because those pictures are what you will look like if we let the next war come.’
These words ring true in our time. We, too, have a chance to stop the spread of another dark tide, this time in the form of Russia’s nihilistic madness, before it spreads beyond the limits of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
History does not always rhyme. But it instructs, and God help us if we ignore its lessons.
Steve Rosenberg in Moscow for the BBC: Putin’s not going to give up.
The IOC allowing Russians and Belarusians to compete in the Olympics as neutrals—why the hell for?
The IOC’s Paralympic Committee has admitted Russian and Belarusian athletes to the competitions under a neutral flag for the time being. There will be a vote on allowing them to compete under their own national flags. This will open the door to Russian and Belarusian ahtletes competing in Paris Olympics 2024 under their own flags and possibly in other international competitions.
I spent Saturday morning listening to a radio call-in segment featuring this issue, and while not scientific, the majority of British citizens said that Russian athletes should be allowed to compete under their flags because politics and sports are two separate issues of social life and should remain so. They said that Russian and Belarusian athletes shouldn’t be punished because of the criminal actions of their dictatorial leaders. It’s not the athletes’s fault that Ukrainians are being killed on the battlefield because the war wasn’t their decision.
This is a classic case of mirror imaging on our part, and it’s wrong to do so. While we respect the Olympic values of excellence, friendship and respect for our athletes, and the athletes of other nations, those values do not make their way into Russian thinking at all. Russia sees its athletes, the majority of whom come from the military, to be used as human capital in its kinetic and non-kinetic warfare against Western democracies, which it has been waging for years. The Kremlin weaponises everything, sports included.
Putin and his cronies have always heavily invested sports, and its athletes, as a tool of influence to further Russia’s geo-political aims—consider its activities in the world of fencing, chess, UEFA, motor racing, and how the Sochi Olympics were instrumentalised. When Russian atheletes parade around a stadium with their flag in hand or when their national flag and names appear on scoreboards for every race or game, the Kremlin makes good use of those images for propaganda purposes. They are part of the operations to provide a positive image of Russia at home and abroad, to shore up consensus and pride at home, and to soften international publics towards Russia, thereby diverting attention from the atrocities the Russian forces are committing in Ukraine.
Setting Russian calculus aside, I believe there’s another reason Russian and Belarusian athletes should not be allowed to participate in international sporting events as neutrals, let alone under their national flags. Many stellar Ukrainian athletes will not be competing in the Olympics and other international sporting events because they have been killed defending their sovereignty or are currently on the front lines. Consider how morally warped it is to have Ukrainian athletes compete next to their Russian killers who are proudly brandishing their flags. Or think about Ukrainian athletes standing next to their Belarusian counterparts, whose country is aiding Russia in kidnapping Ukrainian children, and serving as a launching pad for missile attacks against Ukraine. It’s sick, and I can’t say this any other way.
Russia and Belarus have shown that they do not respect any of the values the Olympics or other international sporting events embrace and seek to foster. Their athletes, very few of which have come out publically against the war and in support of Ukraine, should not compete in international sporting events. We need to continue Russia and Belarus’s isolation, and curb any attempt on their part to use our platforms to further their strategic aims. It’s time for the IOC to grow a pair and stand with the values they profess: Ukraine and its allies have.
