Oct 20 Buonasera Mag
Day 239: UA-SakhavrovPrize, Kharkiv, Kherson, UA infrastructure, Enerhodar, Bashkir, RU debt, Prigohzin, GER, Iran, Poland, Spain, HIMARS cables, Truss-A&Ps-Surovikin, Panyi, Pomerantsev Brazil, Cepa
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
In the Kharkiv region, 544 settlements have been liberated, 32 remain occupied, - the head of the Kharkiv RMA Oleg Sinegubov. "This is a little less than 2%. We have a lot of work ahead of us to restore the functioning of state power in these territories,"-he said.
As Ukrainian soldiers regain ground, they are capturing 100s of military vehicles abandoned by retreating Russians. Janes estimates at least 200 vehicles, 45 tanks, 70 infantry fighting vehicles, and 30 artillery pieces. Many seem to have been taken in the battle for the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
Zelensky: 3 power plants destroyed by Russia in past 24 hours. Zelensky reiterated calls by other officials for Ukrainians to greatly limit their electricity consumption starting on Oct. 20. "Tomorrow, it is very important that consumption is as conscious as possible," he said.
President Zelensky: people needed to be “especially conscious of electricity consumption” from 7am and avoid using unnecessary appliances as he warned of local “stabilisation blackouts”.
In yesterday’s attacks on Ukraine, more than half of the Iranian "Shahed-136" kamikaze drones launched by Russia came from the territory of Belarus. Russia, Iran and Belarus are at war with civilization.
Moscow-backed self-appointed officials in Kherson region have begun deporting civilians into Russian territory, citing fears of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russians plan to move up to 60,000 people across the Dnieper River and into Russia over the next six days – at a rate of 10,000 people each day. Today 15,000 have been deported, Kirill Stremousov, reported on the messaging app Telegram.
Ukrainian Telegram channels say Russia is abandoning Enerhodar, the city near the nuclear power plant, but not without first raiding a hotel for TVs, fridges, furniture and kettles.
"This is not our war": Bashkir nationalists have announced the creation of armed resistance, media reports. The offices of Duma parties and military recruitment offices are set on fire in the republic, and men are encouraged to go into hiding and prepare to fight.
Two US and one Israel official: Russia moving essential military hardware, including S-300 air defense, and troops from Syria to Ukraine.
Reuters: Russia will reassess work with UN chief if he inspects drones in Ukraine. Deputy U.N. Ambassador Polyanskiy said if Secretary-General Guterres sends experts to inspect Iranian-made drones Russia "will have to reassess (its) collaboration" with the UN, Reuters reports.
The Russian government instructed to send 1 trillion rubles from the National Welfare Fund (NWF) to cover the deficit of the federal budget in 2022. The relevant order was issued by the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Mykhailo Mishustin. Russia has raided $16.2bn from its main foreign wealth fund to cover its budget deficit as the invasion of Ukraine continues to weigh heavily on its public finances.
Prigohzin claims that Russia creates defensive lines, 'people's militia' in Belgorod Oblast. Wagner Group is overseeing the fortification of Belgorod Oblast along its border with Ukraine, according to Prigozhin, the group's founder and Putin's close ally.
A Russian aircraft released a missile near a British plane patrolling in international airspace over the Black Sea on 29 September, the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has said. He said an “unarmed RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint” plane was “interacted with” by two Russian SU-27s, one of which “released a missile in the vicinity of the RAF Rivet Joint beyond visual range”.
Russia says that it is "not optimistic" about the renewal of the Black Sea grain export deal. Dmitry Polyanskiy: ''It depends what we get from this deal. So far, we’ve gotten very little.” (more threats)
Belarus warns that Poland will have 10 battalions on its border and is preparing 2 mechanized divisions, as well as an additional division in Bialystok, for war Belarus continues to saber-rattle about the Polish threat even though is unlikely to join the Ukraine War.
Chancellor Scholz said on Thursday that Putin was using energy and hunger as weapons but has failed to break the West’s unity and will not achieve his war aims through scorched earth tactics.
He also said Germany had freed itself from dependence on Russian gas but was working to bring energy prices down, including by securing new gas delivery contracts from other countries.
“We will not let Moscow’s latest escalation go unanswered. Scorched earth tactics will not help Russia win the war. They will only strengthen the unity and resolve of Ukraine and its partners.”
Politico: White House taking measures to avoid Biden-Putin encounter at G-20 summit in Indonesia. Biden and Putin will both attend the 2022 G-20 summit in November, but U.S. officials are working to make sure that the two leaders do not cross paths, Politico reports.
The US has brought charges against five Russian nationals for alleged sanctions violations. On Wednesday, US prosecutors charged the five with sanctions evasion and other violations related to shipping military technologies bought from US manufacturers to Russian buyers. Some of the electronics obtained through the scheme have been found in Russian weapons platforms seized in Ukraine. One of the people charged in the case was arrested in Germany and another was detained in Italy.
Iran’s top diplomat has denied allegations that Tehran planned to send missiles to Russia for use in the Ukraine war. The Czech republic announced that the bloc had agreed sanctions against three individuals and one entity alleged to have supplied Iranian attack drones to Russia for use against Ukrainian targets.
Polish arms industry is maxed out at 100% capacity according to Defence Minister. New industrial sites are being built to accomodate additional needs of both Polish and Ukrainian armed forces.
Spain to send generators to Ukraine to help with electricity crunch. On Oct. 19, Spain’s MoD announced the provision of four sets of 400-kilowatt and one set of 150-kilowatt electricity generators to Ukraine, as the country's energy infrastructure continues to be deliberately bombarded by Russian missiles.
Lockheed Martin ready to boost HIMARS production to 96 units per year. The American defense industry giant has already taken steps to prepare to raise production of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System from 60 to 96 per year, funding the fast-tracked production of some parts, the company's CEO Jim Taiclet said during an earnings call, according to the Breaking Defense media outlet.
The Dutch Parliament votes in support of the creation of a special tribunal in The Hague to prosecute Russian military and political leaders for invading Ukraine
President Zelensky has made an impassioned plea at the world’s biggest publishing event, the Frankfurt book fair, for authors to write about the “terror” unleashed by Russia’s invasion.
Instead of importing culture, Russia imports death. So I ask you, please do everything to make people know about the terror that Russia brought to Ukraine. Knowledge is the answer. Books, documentary scripts, articles, reports – these are the answers.
Nato allies will act if Sweden or Finland come under pressure from Russia or another adversary before they become full members of the alliance, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday. “It is inconceivable that allies would not act should Sweden and Finland come under any form of pressure,” Reuters reports Stoltenberg said at a news conference with Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson.
Major internet subsea fiber cable in South of France was severed, causing Internet connectivity problems in Europe, Asia, and US At the same time, BCC reports that another subsea cable linking the Shetland Islands to the Scottish mainland has been damaged.
Boris Johnson intends to run for the post of head of government after the resignation of Truss, - Times.
‘We may have to make some difficult decisions in Kherson’ - summary of the first interview given by Russia's new top commander in Ukraine- Meduza
This is an abridged version of the interview with Sergey Surovikin, the newly appointed commander of Russia’s troops in Ukraine. He is known as the ‘Armageddon general’ due to his violent methods in the war in Syria. His statements are a masterclass of gaslighting and propaganda.
Overall, the situation in the special military operation zone is tense.
Our opponent is a criminal regime, while we and the Ukrainians are one people and want the same thing: for Ukraine to be a country that’s friendly to Russia and independent from the West.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are pulling all of their reserves, including untrained territorial defense forces, to the front; they’re effectively condemning them to destruction.
Nationalist detachments are shooting everybody who tries to escape. Every day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose 600–1,000 people to death and injuries.
We’re not striving for a quick advance, because we take care of every soldier, and because this reduces the number of civilian victims.
The situation in the Kherson direction is complicated. In the city itself, there are supply problems.
NATO is demanding that Ukraine carry out offensive operations regardless of the number of casualties. We have information that Kyiv might use illegal methods of warfare.
Our task is to save lives, and that’s why we’re moving the population out of the area. Our subsequent plans with regard to Kherson will depend on the situation. We haven’t ruled out making some tough decisions.
Russia’s genocidal propaganda must not be passed off as freedom of speech | Peter Pomerantsev- The Guardian
As the cases of war crimes, crimes against humanity, crimes of aggression and genocide pile up against the Russian leadership and military, is there a way to hold members of the propaganda machine accountable as well? Are they protected by freedom of speech or is their role qualitatively different: not mere trumpeters of abhorrent opinion but facilitators of crimes? And what does it mean for other cases across the world: from Donald Trump using Twitter to (allegedly) egg on the rioters at the US Capitol on 6 January, to the Myanmar online peddlers of hate encouraging persecution of the Rohingya?
EU wants to see US list on Russia financing of politicians- EUobserver
The Russian handouts came as cash, expensive gifts, electronic funds transfers and cryptocurrency, says the document, according to the New York Times. Recipients include European think tanks and foundations in support of far-right nationalist parties, it said. The US intelligence review said that the Kremlin and its proxies transferred such funds in order to shape foreign political environments in Moscow's favour.
It is not immediately clear what the EU commission intends to do with the information, once received. However, the Brussels-executive will early next year propose a so-called defence of democracy package which will also tackle foreign agents. "We are fighting disinformation with everything we've got. More is yet to come," said Schinas.
Matt Brazil, A Bold New Look at China’s Audacious Spies- SpyTalk
All the while China’s organs of state security remained opaque, a “riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma,” as Winston Churchill said of Stalinist Russia. Today theourced works in the 1970s and 80s, the praetorian guards of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have remained understudied, almost unacknowledged in the sprawling field of China studies. Australian expert Alex Joske aims to rectify that situation.
Erasing memory and history…
