Oct 21 Buonasera Mag
Day 240: Kakhova, Kharkiv, RAF, BEL, LITH, North Korea, Spain, GER, LG, France, HUN Sweden, Finland, EUCO-A&Ps-Peterson, Tsikhanouvskaya, China, BylineTV, Diamond, Cosmo Globalists, Draghi, Browder
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
I rarely post videos of Russian or Ukrainian missile strikes or those that have been intercepted by the Ukrainian forces, mostly for security reasons. This one is impressive.
Just a reminder: Ukraine has been under heavy drone and missile strike in the last 2 weeks. The Ukrainian forces have been able to shoot down or intercept roughly 70-80% of them- which is absolutely incredible and a testament to their know-how.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelenksy: Russian forces have mined the dam and units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station. "If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, will be in the zone of rapid flooding. He also said that this would constitute the use of a weapon of mass destruction.
Russia is preparing [to attack] at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. According to our information, the aggregates and dam of the Kakhovka HPP were mined by Russian terrorists.
With this terrorist attack, they can destroy, among other things, even the possibility of supplying water from the Dnipro River to Crimea. In the event of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam, the North Crimean canal will simply disappear.
The spokesman for the office of President Zelensky, Andriy Yermak, has vowed it will “not succumb to peace by coercion” – threatening to hit back harder if Russia destroys a hydroelectric dam in Kherson. He claims that Russia has resorted to destroying the Kakhovska HPP because “nuclear blackmail did not work”. Ukraine has reportedly called on the UN and the EU to send observers to Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in Kherson.
Ukraine is ready for any scenario at Kakhovka HPP. According to the Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov, in the event of the dam being blown up, it will not be possible to restore water supply to Crimea for 5-7 years.
Early this morning, Russian missile attacks on Kharkiv- major explosions reported by the local authorities. During the night, the Ukrainian forces attacked the Antonivsky Bridge in the Kherson Oblast.
Russia has hit at least half of Ukraine’s thermal generation capacity since 10 October, but not all stricken power units have stopped working completely, Ukraine’s energy minister said on Friday.
A missile was released from a Russian aircraft near an unarmed RAF plane on patrol over the Black Sea, the defence secretary has said. Ben Wallace said the "potentially dangerous" incident happened on 29 September in international airspace. Russia said it was the result of a "technical malfunction". UK patrols over the Black Sea were suspended but have now resumed and are escorted by a fighter jet following Russia's response.
UK intelligence: Russia, Belarus bluff to make Ukraine 'divert its forces to guard northern border.' Russia has unlikely managed to deploy 15,000 troops to Belarus to join the Belarusian military, as Alexander Lukashenko announced on Oct. 14-15, according to the U.K. DM.
Report: Damage caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure reaches $127 billion. Damaged and destroyed housing has the largest share of total losses – $50.5 billion, as Russia has destroyed roughly 135,800 civilian buildings in Ukraine, according to the KSE.
The Secretary of the NSDC, Oleksiy Danilov, said on the air of the telethon that the next 2 months will be difficult for Ukraine, but you just have to wait them out. Danilov suggests that riots against the authorities may spread in the Russian Federation during this time.
Ukraine is running out of missiles for air defense systems, reports WaPo. "Ukraine is calling for it to be supplied with more modern air defense systems, such as the American NASAMS or the German IRIS-T, in order to close gaps in the coverage area."
US State Department: Russia is exploring supply arrangements with North Korea. Russia may be turning to countries like Iran and North Korea "out of desperation," but "it doesn't make it any less dangerous," said U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price.
Defence Secretary Lloyd J Austin III spoke with MoD Reznikov to reiterate the unwavering US commitment to supporting Ukraine’s ability to counter Russia’s aggression. He also underscored the international community’s continued support in building Ukraine’s enduring strength and safeguarding Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in the future, as demonstrated by the security assistance commitments at the most recent Ukraine defence contact group meeting.
President Zelensky: “We must speak frankly – there are still enough figures in Europe who call for “understanding” Russia and try to ignore the terrorist policy of states like Iran. There are such people in various spheres – in politics, business, in NGOs and in the media. Why is this possible? What leads to this? One answer: lack of knowledge. Lack of knowledge in the public majority.”
Spanish authorities have moved the a luxury yacht linked to Sergei Chemezov, sanctioned head of Russian defence group Rostec, reports Reuters. Spain ordered the ship to be “frozen”, which means it cannot be used or sold, in March, claiming it was acting on EU sanctions.
Scholz: Germany to train 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers by spring. The training will take place as part of the Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine, which aims to prepare about 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers, AP reports, citing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Kommersant reporting South Korean conglomerate LG will be closing its Russian plant and moving operations to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Ukraine received thousands of tons of humanitarian cargo from France. The French handed over 6 tons of medicine, an SUV and a boat. This was announced by the Ambassador of France to Ukraine, Etienne de Ponsin, on October 20.
French intelligence agencies foiled Russia's attempt to send a suspected GRU operative into the country, Le Monde reports in its investigation. According to media reports, in the summer of 2022, Russian citizen Yulia Shifmanovich tried to get a French visa. Consular services made a request to law enforcement agencies and received a recommendation to refuse Shifmanovich a visa.
Hungary has paid about $19.1 million for a propaganda campaign against the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West, the RTL.hu media outlet reported on Oct. 18. RTL.hu referred to a policy document from the prime minister’s office, as well as numerous characteristic billboards and posters around the country. It noted that the contract was signed in early July, but the document was released only on Oct. 13.
The Finnish authorities said that they discussed the issue of joining NATO with Turkey and Hungary. The country sees no obstacles to the approval of its application, said Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin.
EUCO: the 27 European Council members agreed to fill gas storages and claw back revenues from energy firms to spend on helping consumers with crippling bills, an alternative price benchmark for liquefied natural gas and voluntary joint gas buying, although laws to make this happen will need to be negotiated over the coming weeks. It was a great victory for Draghi by the end of the night. In the afternoon he had declared that he wouldn’t sign the agreement as it was: changes were necessary.
Speed cameras are disappearing en masse in Sweden. At the same time, Ukrainian military found similar cameras in the Russian UAV "Orlan-10". SÄPO (Sweden's State Security Service) knows the problem, but avoids aswering whether these cameras could be possibly used by Russians.
The Biden administration is considering the possibility of vetting Elon Musk from a national security perspective, — Bloomberg. U.S. officials consider his stance toward Russia to be friendly, after a series of tweets outlining peace proposals favorable to Putin.
Steve Bannon was sentenced to four months in prison for defying a subpoena from the House panel investigating the Jan. 6 riot. Mr. Bannon was found guilty of two counts of contempt of Congress. He will remain free pending his appeal.
Psychologists Battle To Help Ukraine's Shell-Shocked Population- RFE/RL (video)
According to Ukraine's Health Ministry, more than 90 percent of Ukrainians have one or more symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) due to the ongoing war. It's estimated that only three in every 100 Ukrainians with PTSD are receiving support.
Kara-Murza, Putin’s war on Ukraine is also a war on truth- WaPo
Havel once said that “if the main pillar of the system is living a lie, then … the fundamental threat to it is living the truth — this is why it must be suppressed more severely than anything else.” The reality of Vladimir Putin’s regime in Russia bears out these words to the full. With the start of this brutal invasion of Ukraine, Putin also launched another war — a war on truth in our own country.
The uprising in Iran- The Cosmopolicast
I was looking today for good articles explaining exactly what’s happening in Iran, and growing increasingly frustrated because I couldn’t find any—even though it’s obvious that what’s happening is massively significant. So I asked Shay Khatiri to come on the Cosmopolicast to help me make sense of what’s happening there.
Shay’s an immigrant to the United States from Iran who studied Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies—but you’ll learn all about his background from the conversation.
Larry Diamond, All Democracy Is Global- Foreign Affairs
The world is mired in a deep, diffuse, and protracted democratic recession. According to Freedom House, 2021 was the 16th consecutive year in which more countries declined in freedom than gained. Tunisia, the sole democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring protests that began in 2010, is morphing into a dictatorship. In countries as diverse as Bangladesh, Hungary, and Turkey, elections have long ceased to be democratic. Autocrats in Algeria, Belarus, Ethiopia, Sudan, Turkey, and Zimbabwe have clung to power despite mounting public demands for democratization. In Africa, seven democracies have slid back into autocracy since 2015, including Benin and Burkina Faso.
Arriverderci, Mario…we’ll miss you…
The Council of Europe dedicated a video to now former PM Mario Draghi. It celebrates his leadership in various roles in Europe. Last night, it didn’t circulate because Draghi blasted some of the members of the CoE on key positions, but then an accord was reached in the wee hours of the night on a gas price cap — albeit with some notable caveats that could allow skeptics like Germany to kill the effort down the line.
On a personal note, I’m really sad to see Mario Draghi go. He was our leader in one of Italy’s darkest chapters as a nation, and did “whatever it takes” to get us out of the pandemic, its economic fallout, and provided an economic/industrial blueprint for Italy’s future development.
For a brief 20 months, I was proud of my government, its policies, especially Draghi’s unwavering support and actions for Ukraine’s defence, which mirrored the sentiment of Italians from Trento to Palermo. We also had a ‘normal, stable’ government, that worked away and stayed out of the limelight. There was no drama, no late night offensive tweets or statements. It was refreshing, and showed Italians what goverance could and should be.
Draghi was our best asset on the international stage. Since he’s stated that he won’t be returning to Italian politics, I can only hope he’ll continue to make us proud in the international setting.
Grazie, Mario.
