Oct 21: Saturday Stories
Day603 Berislav ROC MelitopolBoom CombatSit Zalu ATACMS NATO Orban ZeGER UK KZ UN CNTBT KimLavrov USsanctionsIran Dodik ISRAEL Allies CN $106Bln A&P UKDef WarMapper KI TimesRadio ScharIntelligence NYT
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
A Russian missile hit a hospital in Berislav on Oct 19.
Russian attacks kill 5, injure 11 in Ukraine. Russian multi-weapon attacks against Ukraine killed five civilians and wounded another 11 in the past day, regional authorities reported on Oct. 19.
Parliament passes bill on banning Russia-affiliated religious organizations in first reading. The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, passed in the first reading on Oct. 19 a bill that could ban the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), lawmakers reported.
SBU: Russian Orthodox Church runs private military companies to train fighters for Ukraine deployment. The Church receives funding for these activities from financial and industrial groups close to the Russian state, the SBU said. These funds are reportedly donated as "charitable contributions" for "construction of churches."
Ukrainian resistance forces in Russian-occupied Melitopol blew up a car of Russian soldiers who were allegedly looting empty apartments in the city, said Ivan Fedorov, the city’s exiled mayor.
“They regularly tracked and looted empty apartments in the city. And at this time, our resistance forces were tracking the occupiers,” Fedorov said. “During another night hunt in the area of Aviamistechka, at the very moment of loading looted goods into the car, an explosion occurred,”
Combat Situation Update
Spokesperson, Oleksandr Stupun: Ukraine has claimed to have made a small gain south-west of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region.
the southern advance was still difficult because of Russian minefields and heavily fortified defences.
UAF are at Verbove just east of Robotyne, pushing south towards the Sea of Azov.
in Kupiansk and Avdiivka direction, Stupun said that Russian forces “do not stop their attempts to encircle” Avdiivka and “they continue to exert pressure there”.
UAF reportedly have crossed the Dnipro and are shoring up the beachead.
The Russians are moving forces from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.
Russian forces renewed their assault against Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast and launched unsuccessful attacks around the town's flanks, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Oct. 20
Military reports Russian strikes on east bank of Dnipro near Kherson, implying Ukrainian presence. Russia launched air strikes against the village of Pishchanivka on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces wrote, implying the presence of Ukrainian forces in the settlement.
National Guard burns down large field ammunition depot of Russian Federation. Thanks to the work of aerial reconnaissance men of the 11th NGU brigade of Mykhailo Hrushevsky, all this has now turned to ashes.
Media: Romania to install anti-drone defense system. Romania will install an anti-drone system along the border with Ukraine, Romanian media outlet Digi24 reported on Oct. 20, citing government sources. It will be provided by an unnamed partner state, agreed upon with NATO.
Russian media: Putin visits Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don overnight on Oct. 20, TASS claims. Putin was said to have received a situation report from Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, who also commands Russian invasion troops in Ukraine.
Armageddon General Surovikin was finally removed from his post after he allegedly supported Prigozhin's attempted mutiny. Acting Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force Afzalov Victor Musavirovich is now official appointed.
Behind the Lines
Turkish ambassador: Black Sea grain deal possible to restore. Turkey believes that the Black Sea Grain Initiative can be restored, and Anakara is working with all relevant players to achieve that result, Turkish Ambassador to Ukraine Yagmur Ahmet Guldere told Ukrinform on Oct. 19.
"We believe that the grain deal can be revived... As you know, the initiative became a reality thanks to Turkey's cooperation with the UN, Ukraine, and Russia," the ambassador said in the interview.
Bloomberg: Germany still trades Russian LNG as canceling costs over $10 billion. A German state-owned company continues to ship Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) to India, as canceling the contract could cost over $10 billion in taxpayer money, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 20, citing undisclosed sources. SEFE, a former unit of the Russian Gazprom nationalized by the German government last year, reportedly continues to fulfill its legacy 20-year contract from 2018 to ship out Russian LNG from the Yamal facility.
Russia claims to have scrambled fighter planes on Thursday to prevent British military planes from entering Russian airspace over the Black Sea, the Russian defence ministry said.
Reuters reports the ministry saying the British planes had turned back after being approached. It is not unusual for Russian and Nato forces to test each other’s airspace and defences.
In June 2023 the UK’s Ministry of Defence claimed Nato had scrambled RAF jets six times in the previous three weeks, intercepting 21 Russian aircraft in 21 days. An encounter between Russian and British planes in September 2022 near the Black Sea led to what was described as a “near-shoot down”.
Kazakhstan bans export of 106 potential dual-use products to Russia. The Kazakhstani official said that these products include "drones, internal components, specialized electronics, chips," and similar goods, that is, equipment that could be used for military purposes.
Russia arrests another journalist with American citizenship. Russian authorities have arrested Alsu Kurmasheva, a dual-Russian/American citizen and journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Tatar-Bashkir service, the news outlet reported on Oct. 19. In May 2023, she traveled to Russia for a family emergency, according to RFE/RL. On June 2, she was detained at the Kazan airport while trying to leave the country. The authorities confiscated both her Russian and American passports before issuing her a fine for not notifying the Russian government of her dual citizenship. Kurmasheva was arrested on October 18 and charged with failing to comply with the requirements of “foreign agent” legislation.
Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhnyi in Avdiivka.
A United Nations commission of inquiry on Ukraine found additional evidence that Russian forces had committed “indiscriminate attacks” and war crimes in Ukraine, including rape and the deportation of children to Russia, Reuters is reporting.
“The Commission has found new evidence that Russian authorities have committed violations of international human rights and international humanitarian law, and corresponding crimes, in areas that came under their control in Ukraine,” it said in a report submitted to the UN General assembly that highlighted attacks in the cities of Uman and Kherson, among others.
“The Commission has recently documented attacks that affected civilian objects, such as residential buildings, a railway station, shops, and a warehouse for civilian use, leading to numerous casualties.”
“Most of the incidents occurred after the perpetrators broke into the victims’ homes,” it said. “Victims reported rapes at gunpoint and threats of killing or of inflicting other serious harm to the victims or their relatives.”
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia withdraws from Convention for Protection of National Minorities. Russia claims it lost the opportunity to monitor and address cases of alleged rights violations of national minorities abroad, "primarily of the Russian-speaking population." The Kremlin used false accusations of abuse and discrimination against Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine to start armed aggression against its neighbor in 2014.
Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, has declared God's participation in the creation of Russia's nuclear weapons
If not for the work of Kurchatov [creator of the Soviet atomic bomb] and his colleagues, it is hard to say whether our country would exist," Kirill said while presenting the Order of St. Sergius of Radonezh to Radiy Ilkaev, head of the Russian Federal Nuclear Center in Sarov. Soviet scientists "created weapons under the cover of St. Seraphim of Sarov, because by God's order these weapons were created," Kirill said. He added that nuclear weapons were the key to Russia's independence, and their developers "saved" the country.
Monique: There is a hefty literature out there on how Soviet spies were well-placed in the American and British nuclear programmers during the Second World War and how these agents sent documents to Moscow. The Soviets wouldn’t have had the atomic bomb had it not been for the work of these agents.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz sharply rebuked Putin over his “cynical” comments about civilian casualties:
In the German parliament on Thursday, Scholz said: “It makes me more than furious to hear the Russian president repeatedly warning that there could be civilian casualties from an armed conflict,” referring to Putin’s comments about the Israel-Hamas war that erupted after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October. “It doesn’t get more cynical than that,” Scholz said
A meeting between Kim Jong-un and Lavrov in North Korea. Lavrov earlier said he wants to 'strengthen' ties between the countries, secure the Korean peninsula and is ready to resist the hegemonic aspirations of the US."
William Yang: “A Pentagon report on China’s military power says Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how quickly it is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal and is “almost certainly” learning lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine about what a conflict over Taiwan might look like.”
The report released Thursday also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental missile system using conventional arms that, if fielded, would allow Beijing “to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.”
The 2023 report finds that Beijing is on pace to field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, continuing a rapid modernization aimed at meeting Xi’s goal of having a “world class” military by 2049.
The report said China is intensifying military, diplomatic and economic pressure not only on Taiwan but also toward all its regional neighbors to push back against what its sees as U.S. efforts to contain its rise.
The pressure against Taipei includes ballistic missile overflights, increased warplane incursions into its international defense zone and a large-scale military exercise last August that encircled Taiwan.
Missile factory to open in close proximity to Moscow residential area. The factory was built in a “record” 8.5 months and is supposed to begin production by October 2024.
Russian Investigative Committee chief Alexander Bastrykin suggests revoking citizenship of migrants who refuse to fight in Ukraine.
Allied Support
US sanctions Iranian drone producers. The United States imposed sanctions against 11 individuals and eight entities connected with Iran's drone program, including those responsible for producing drones used in Russia's war against Ukraine.
Kyiv Indie: How can NATO benefit from Ukraine's membership? Does Ukraine meet NATO standards?
Croatia has transferred all its Mi-8 helicopters to Ukraine according to a transcript from the U.S. Department of Defense from a meeting between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Croatian Defense Minister Mario Banozic.
Kuleba: ATACMS deliveries to increase, 'optimistic' that F-16s will arrive beginning of 2024. The U.S. will keep delivering Army Tactical Missiles Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine on a consistent basis, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on the 1+1 TV channel on Oct. 19.
EU leaders express outrage over the meeting between Putin and Orbán in Beijing earlier this week.
“As it has been repeatedly shown, Putin does not meet European leaders with the aim of achieving peace in Ukraine,” said Petr Pavel, president of the Czech Republic. “Peace can be achieved without any negotiations on his part simply by ceasing attacks and withdrawing his troops from Ukrainian territory.”
“He is only holding these meetings with the aim of breaking the unity of European countries and the entire democratic world. We should not fall for his tactics.”
EU officially extends protections for Ukrainian refugees. The European Union officially extended temporary protections for Ukrainian refugees in EU countries until March 2025, the European Council announced on Oct. 19. While EU ministers agreed to the extension on Sept. 27, the council adopted the plan on Oct. 19.
Thierry Breton: “We will not let terror and disinformation divide us or undermine our democracy. My intervention at the European Parliament Plenary on fighting disinformation and dissemination of illegal content in the context of the Digital Services Act and in times of conflict.”
Finland rejects Russian nationals' property acquisitions, citing security grounds. Finland's Defense Ministry blocked three planned property acquisitions by Russian nationals due to concerns that they would "hinder" national defense, the ministry said in a press release on Oct. 19.
Monique: Reports in the news over the past 2 years indicate that Russians were buying property near Finnish military installations.
Nato is stepping up patrols in the Baltic Sea after recent damage to undersea infrastructure in the region, the transatlantic military alliance said on Thursday.
“The increased measures include additional surveillance and reconnaissance flights, including with maritime patrol aircraft, Nato Awacs planes and drones. A fleet of four Nato minehunters is also being dispatched to the area,” Reuters reports Nato said in a statement.
U.S. Department of State Official Readout: “Today, the United States is imposing sanctions on individuals and entities comprising part of the patronage network of Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik. The Department of the Treasury has taken action against two individuals and four entities, including Dodik’s two adult children, Igor and Gorica Dodik.
This network facilitates Dodik’s leading role in undermining the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement and the authority of the High Representative, as well as perpetuating deeply entrenched corruption in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). This network also reinforces the country’s patronage-based economy, thereby inhibiting critically important economic growth and opportunity for BiH citizens.”
U.S.-designated Dodik – a leading voice of genocide denial and driver of the deepening divisions and political impasse in the country – has misused his official government position to accumulate personal wealth through graft, bribery, and other forms of corruption.
Biden administration aid to Ukraine and Israel
Biden asked Congress for additional funding. The amount requested is $105 billion. According to US journalists, 61.4B is ment for Ukraine, 14.3B for Israel (including 9.15 humanitarian aid funding), 7.4B for Taiwan and 13.6B for US border security.
The White House has released the supplemental request for $105 bn in aid for Israel and Ukraine. In the accompanying letter, Shalanda D Young, the director of the US office of management and budget, notes that the request “reflects how, under President Biden’s leadership, the US has marshalled a robust response to Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine and is now coming to the aid of our ally Israel”.
“The President has reaffirmed that we must stand up to tyranny and with Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty,” Young wrote. “We must send the unmistakable message that in the 21st Century, a dictator cannot conquer or carve up his neighbours’ territory.
“The United States has rallied the world to stand with Ukraine and built a coalition of more than 50 countries that are providing weapons and equipment to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression. However, as we shared with the Congress as part of our recent supplemental funding request in August, previous supplemental appropriations for direct military aid, economic and humanitarian assistance, and other support have been committed or nearly committed.
“As Ukrainians wage a tough counteroffensive and as winter fast approaches, the world is watching what the Congress does next. It is important that we continue to do everything we can to help Ukraine succeed on the battlefield and protect its people. As the president said, we cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted—we are the indispensable nation in the world, let’s act like it.”
Around the World
Two hostages have been released. Please see post below.
Official Readout: “Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke today with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant to provide an update on the provision of U.S. security assistance and to discuss the latest operational and humanitarian situation in Gaza. The Secretary reiterated the ironclad commitment of the United States to supporting the defense of U.S. partners and to preventing an escalation of the conflict launched by Hamas terrorists.”
Bloomberg: The US and European governments are putting pressure on Israel to delay the ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. In particular, to buy time for the secret negotiations being conducted through Qatar to secure the release of the hostages held by Hamas.
AP: Hamas likely used North Korean arms in attack on Israel. Hamas fighters attacked the Israeli settlements armed with North Korean F-7 rocket-propelled grenade launchers, the news agency said, citing South Korean officials, two experts on North Korean arms, and its own analysis of weapons captured by Israeli forces.
Reuters is reporting that Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian deputy foreign affairs minister, will be taking part in the Cairo peace summit on the Gaza conflict.
21 journalists killed in Israel-Gaza war. The Israel-Gaza war has killed at least 21 journalists since Hamas' unprecedented Oct. 7 attack and Israel's ensuing declaration of war, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) reported on Oct. 19. CPJ's investigation confirmed that 21 journalists have been killed in the fighting, while eight have been reported missing and another three missing or detained.
CNN: ‘Former Donald Trump attorney Sidney Powell has pleaded guilty in the Georgia election subversion case, one day before her trial was set to start.
Fulton County prosecutors are recommending a sentence of six years probation. Powell will also be required to testify at future trials and write an apology letter to the citizens of Georgia.
As part of her guilty plea, Powell is admitting her role in the January 2021 breach of election systems in rural Coffee County, Georgia. With the help of local GOP officials, a group of Trump supporters accessed and copied information from the county's election systems in hopes of somehow proving that the election was rigged against Trump.
NYT: “Human shields” are still protected civilians.
Israel has long accused Hamas of using civilians as “human shields.” On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel told President Biden that Hamas is perpetrating “a double war crime, targeting our civilians while hiding behind their civilians.”
The use of human shields is considered a war crime as well as a violation of humanitarian law.
But even if one side intentionally jeopardizes civilians in this way — either by forcing them to remain near military targets or by placing military targets in or adjacent to the same buildings as civilians — those noncombatants are still entitled to full protections under humanitarian law, experts say. That means that when attacking Hamas, Israel must still weigh the proportionality of any harm to human shields and other nearby civilians. If the harm to them is disproportionate to the military objective, the attack is illegal under international law.
“There’s really only one way in which a civilian can lose that immunity from attack or their other protections become weakened, and that is direct participation in hostilities,” said Janina Dill, an Oxford University professor and the co-director of the Oxford Institute for Ethics, Law, and Armed Conflict.
Even if Hamas uses civilian homes for military purposes, or places weapons or fighters in tunnels underneath civilian buildings, it would not necessarily be legal for Israel to attack those targets, said Avichai Mandelblit, a former chief military advocate general of the Israeli military and former attorney general.
“Of course, there is the question of proportionality,” he said. “If you want a military gain, you have to put it side by side with the collateral damage.”
Ghazi Hammad, a member of Hamas’s political bureau, told The Times reporter Yousur Al-Hlou by phone on Thursday that the organization does not use human shields. “This is fake news,” he said.
“You know that Gaza is very small and densely populated, and therefore Israel considers any place to be a residential place,” he added later in a WhatsApp message.
In an earlier conversation this week, he acknowledged that Hamas had encouraged civilians to reject Israel’s order to flee their homes. But he added that “we did not put up barricades and force people to stay.”
