Oct 22 Saturday Edition
Day 241: UA power outs, Kherson, Dnipro, Iran instrctors, BEL, $127B, IMF, Germany, China, Japan- A&Ps-Kyslytsya, Zolotova, Khodarkovsky, Frontline on Flynn, Trump docs, Ben-Ghiat, Gruni
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
In a message on Telegram, Ukrenergo said that the “scale of damage is comparable or may exceed the consequences of the attack on October 10-12”. It said that repair crews are starting to repair the facilities after the rocket attack, but that restrictions are in place as they try to restore the electricity supply.
Official: Russian attacks cut electricity to over 1.4 million Ukrainian households. The information was provided by Kyrylo Tymoshenko, a deputy chief of staff for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky, has accused Russia of delaying the passage of more than 150 ships scheduled to carry grain exports through the Black Sea.
ISW: Putin is setting conditions for Russia to continue a protracted high-intensity conventional war in Ukraine, not a negotiated settlement or off-ramp. Instead, he is setting conditions for improved Russian combat capability over the winter and well into 2023.
The information conditions that the Kremlin has set to enable the Kherson withdrawal, the preparations to blow the dam, and the preparations for additional mobilization and conscription all demonstrate that Putin is not seeking offramps in the near term.
Russian forces are continuing to reinforce crossing points over the Dnieper river and have finished building a barge bridge alongside the damaged Antonovskiy bridge in Kherson in Ukraine’s south, the UK Ministry of Defence says.
Ukrainian forces have bombarded Russian positions in the occupied Kherson region, targeting resupply routes across a major river while inching closer on Friday to a full assault on the key city.
Russian occupation government starts to dump water from Kakhovka reservoir. The announcement was made by Vladimir Leontiev, the head of the Russian illegal occupation government in Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast.
Russia kidnaps 46 children from Kherson. Russian forces took 46 children from the Kherson Regional Children's Home to Russian-occupied Simferopol, Kherson Oblast Governor Yaroslav Yanushevych reported on Telegram. The children are under five years of age, Yanushevych said.
Russian authorities on the run have abandoned offices such as the Russian "PromSvyazBank" in Kherson as well as the Social Security Council, the pension fund offices, and many other administrative institutions.
The Russian occupiers remaining in Kherson have changed into civilian clothes and moved into the abandoned apartments, preparing for street battles. Source: the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ukrainian troops kill 10 Iranian instructors in Russian-occupied territories. KAN, an Israeli radio station, cited an unnamed Ukrainian source. Iranian citizens who trained Russian troops to use Iranian-made combat drones have been killed over the past week in Russian-occupied parts of Kherson Oblast and in Russian-occupied Crimea, KAN reported.
Lukashenko denies Belarus preparing to join Russia's war in Ukraine. "We are not going anywhere. No war for now. We don't need it," said Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, cited by state-controlled media Belta.
Report: Damage caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure reaches $127 billion. Damaged and destroyed housing has the largest share of total losses – $50.5 billion, as Russia has destroyed roughly 135,800 civilian buildings in Ukraine since February, according to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE). The losses caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine's roads, railways, bridges, and other critical infrastructure sites amount to $35.3 billion; business losses amount to $9.9 billion, the KSE reported.
Reuters: UK, France, Germany urge UN to investigate Russia's use of Iranian-made drones. According to a letter signed by the countries' UN envoys, Russia's use of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones in the war against Ukraine violates a UN Security Council resolution approving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Reuters reported.
Iran condemns the UN's call to investigate the alleged use of its drones in Ukraine, - Reuters. "The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, seeking to protect its national interests and protect the rights of the noble Iranian people.”
The IMF held productive discussions with Ukrainian authorities this week and will work in coming weeks on their request for enhanced program monitoring in the wake of Russia’s invasion, the IMF mission’s chief says.
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, says the US will keep up contacts with Russia but that any broader diplomacy depends on Putin showing an interest “in stopping the aggression”. The French foreign minister, Catherine Colonna, in Washington on Friday: “We have seen no evidence of that in this moment. On the contrary, we see Russia doubling and tripling down on its aggression.”
German firm provides Ukraine with radars for IRIS-T air defense systems. Hensoldt, a German company, reported that it had supplied four TRML-4D radars for cutting-edge IRIS-T systems, which include both surface-to-air and air-to-air versions.
Italy- Russian Gas: In the last seven days, Italy has imported ZERO cubic meters of gas from Gazprom, and therefore from Russia. It hadn't happened since 1974.
Hungary’s government supports the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland and has submitted the ratification documents to the National Assembly.
Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida warned today that Russia using nuclear weapons would be seen as an “act of hostility against humanity”. He added that, “Russia’s act of threatening the use of nuclear weapons is a serious threat to the peace and security of the international community and absolutely unacceptable.”
Boris Johnson received the support of 100 conservative parliamentarians, necessary to participate in the elections for the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Sky News reports.
China’s president, Xi Jinping, has strengthened his power as leader and elevated his status within Communist party (CCP) history, with major political resolutions announced on the final day of a key political meeting. On Saturday, the CCP congress approved amendments to its constitution, including the “Two Establishes” and “Two Safeguards”, aimed at enshrining Xi as at the core of the party and his political thought as its underpinning ideology.
Michael Khodarkovsky, Putin’s War in Ukraine May Destroy Russia- WSJ
These factors paint a grim picture with clear implications: Rather than resurrecting his country’s greatness, Mr. Putin might be presiding over the collapse of the last Russian empire. Russia has always been a colonial power in denial. While conquering and ruling multitudes, it insisted that—in contrast with violent Western conquests—the indigenous peoples themselves sought Russian protection and that Russian rule was benign. This gap between rhetoric and reality is evident in the country’s current designation as a “Russian Federation.”
Ukraine’s true detectives: the investigators closing in on Russian war criminals- The Guardian (long read)
Since the start of the invasion in February, three Truth Hounds investigators have been crisscrossing the country, recording first-hand accounts and documenting evidence of atrocities in line with the standards of the international criminal court (ICC) in The Hague, with which they remain in constant touch. They began their work in 2014 when the Russians invaded Crimea, but the very fact that Slobodianiuk was able to gather information in areas so recently occupied, and in such detail, is a unique aspect of this war.
Destroying Ukrainian cultural sites…
The Mariupol City Council reports that in occupied Mariupol, the Russians plan to destroy the Milana Mural, dedicated to a six-year-old girl who lost her mother during the Russian shellings of the city in 2015.
The occupiers cited "restoration of the thermal circuit" as the official reason for the destruction of this remembrance symbol of the tragedy of war back in 2015.
Hungary launches large-scale communications campaign against sanctions on Russia- The New Voice of Ukraine
According to the media outlet, the New Land Media Reklam and Lounge Design Szolgaltato companies, which “regularly receive orders from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government” won a competition to design the slogan and poster, as well as to place them on outdoor advertising boards.
The country’s Cabinet of Ministers expects advertisers to “perform tasks related to government communications in the international and domestic arena, affecting the future of Europe,” as well as “tasks related to government decisions that have a major impact on the lives of citizens.”
The Washington Post- Trump: Mar-a-Lago classified papers held U.S. secrets about Iran and China
Some of the classified documents recovered by the FBI from Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and private club included highly sensitive intelligence regarding Iran and China, according to people familiar with the matter. If shared with others, the people said, such information could expose intelligence-gathering methods that the United States wants to keep hidden from the world.
At least one of the documents seized by the FBI describes Iran’s missile program, according to these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe an ongoing investigation. Other documents described highly sensitive intelligence work aimed at China, they said.
The secret documents about Iran and China are considered among the most sensitive the FBI has recovered to date in its investigation of Trump and his aides for possible mishandling of classified information, obstruction and destruction of government records, the people said.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Xi Jinping's Personality Cult Expands to Cover Up China's Failures- Lucid
The inflation of Xi's cult and his concentration of personal power manifest the regime's worries that the slowing of Chinese economic growth and the distressing collapse of the real estate sector may compromise its "authoritarian bargain" with the middle class and elites: prosperity for them in return for tolerating heavy censorship and denial of freedoms.
Giovanni Gruni: This week in la bella Italia…
The new Italian government has been inducted: Giorgia Meloni is now prime minister of Italy.
Berlusconi claimed he had an exchange of “sweet” letters with V Putin. They also exchanged gifts in the form of vodka and wine. Putin apparently claimed Berlusconi is one of his 5 best friends. Berlusconi’s party is expressing the new Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs.
In the meanwhile a photo of Mussolini appeared on the wall of a room in one of the government buildings. It was then removed “to avoid instrumental criticism”. The l new President of the Senate however claimed that this was “cancel culture”.
About that. The new President of the Senate has a number of fascist, let’s say, souvenirs in his home. These include a small statue of the Duce he proudly showed in a video available online.
The new President of the lower house has an history of discriminatory claims against minorities and took explicit positions against sanctioning Russia. At the same time Meloni is attacking people (like me I guess) who discredit Italian abroad criticising the country.
A number of intellectuals which you would normally consider on the left wrote a petition in favour of giving parts of Ukraine to Russia to end the war. The Pope is taking the same position. A number of manifestations are being organised by various parties with similar positions.