Oct 28: E-Stories
Day611 CrimeaPlatform Kherson Nikopol Avdiivka BehindLines Grain Putin LavrovNK Cuba Orban Luka Allies EU US GER Israel TUR MOL Kislitsa A&P UKDef ISW KyivIndie Peterson Zelensky Rosenberg Davis
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
My apologies for not putting out E-Stories for a week. Besides my studies, I was at the Second Parliamentary Summit—International Crimea Platform in Prague, where I sat through a few panels about the liberation of Crimea and the task of de-colonisation that is to accompany its liberation.
When the Platform started in 2018, there were very few parliamentary delegations ready to undersign their support for Ukraine in this endeavour. At this edition, 69 were in attendance, signalling the fact that more state parliaments understand that victory for Ukraine means the restitution of its 1992 borders.
“Full Ukrainian fire control over Crimea 'only a matter of time”.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian officials have said the Russian military is shelling Kherson and that residents have been told to enter shelters.
“Now, in particular, the central part of the city is under massive shelling. Move to safer places! Stay away from windows! — the head of the city military administration, Roman Mrochko wrote on his Telegram channel on Friday evening. One man is reported to have died, with another hospitalised.
Elsewhere, the Ukrainian air force has said it has shot down three guided aircraft missiles and two drones over its skies, in the south of the country.
Russian forces bombarded Nikopol with heavy artillery. A 5-year-old boy and a 58-year-old woman were injured as a result of the shelling. The Russian terrorists launch these attacks from the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has committed 2,500 environmental crimes. First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko said duringthe United for Nature conference.
"They brutally kill Ukrainians, they destroy our cities and villages, they destroy our forests, our great natural resources, fields and lakes. They are destroying roads and buildings, they are destroying the water supply system. One million Ukrainians lost access to drinking water, 100,000 residents in 80 settlements were affected by flooding and 140,000 were left without electricity when Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam," she emphasized.
Ukraine and Latvia have tested a new grain corridor, which allows transporting Ukrainian grain to ports in the Baltic states by rail.
"The first test train with Ukrainian grain was unloaded in the capital port of Riga," Chairman of the Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Danil Getmantsev said.
Since Aug 10, 33 vessels exported 1.340 million metric tons (mt) of goods (687k mt grain) through the Ukrainian corridor from three Odesa region ports. Further 20 vessels are currently being loaded with goods totaling 863k mt of goods (690k mt grain). Another 58 vessels are ‘declared for arrival’ and expected to carry 2.27 mio. mt. (1.69 mt grain).
IAEA warns of 'dangers to nuclear safety' following Russian strikes near Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Plant. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has expressed concerns regarding the security and safety of nuclear facilities following a recent attack on Khmelnytskyi Oblast on Oct. 25 that damaged buildings adjacent the region's nuclear power plant
Combat Situation Update
The Ukrainian forces are holding on the left bank of the River Dnipro.
White House: Russia endures heavy losses near Avdiivka, suffers from low morale. "We have information that the Russian military actually executed soldiers who refused to obey orders," U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said during the press briefing, according to European Pravda's correspondent.
President Zelenskyy claimed that Russian forces have lost at least a brigade worth of troops trying to advance on Avdiivka.
“The invaders made several attempts to surround Avdiivka, but each time our soldiers stopped them and threw them back, causing painful losses. In these cases, the enemy lost at least a brigade,” Zelenskiy told British prime minister Rishi Sunak in a phone call, according to the president’s office.
The Russian Defense Ministry said it had detected three unmanned Ukrainian boats in the Black Sea near Sevastopol in annexed Crimea. According to the ministry’s statement, “anti-sabotage missiles and bombs hit the location where the unmanned boats were detected.” The ministry added that “anti-mine and anti-sabotage” measures were being carried out in Sevastopol’s outer harbor.
The White Wolf unit of the SBU eliminated numerous targets in three weeks. Among them 7 tanks, 17 APVs, 1 demising machine, 12 trucks, 10 artillery systems, 1 pole-21 EW system, 21 positions, 2 command posts and an ammo warehouse.
Russia’s defence ministry has confirmed the appointment of Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov as commander of the country’s aerospace forces, replacing General Sergei Surovikin who was removed from the role in August. Russian state-run RIA and Tass news agencies had reported his appointment last week, citing sources. Russia’s Aerospace Forces comprise the air and space branches of its armed forces, reports Reuters.
National Resistance Center: Russia actively recruiting Cuban mercenaries. Russia is "massively" recruiting Cuban mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, the National Resistance Center claimed on Oct. 26. Cuban fighters are allegedly involved in current fighting around Bakhmut and Kupiansk.
Ukraine reveals remote-controlled, wheeled drone that can drive under Russian tanks. Ukrainian military tech developers created a new unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) with the ability to carry explosives and drive under armored vehicles, the project's spokesperson, Viktoriia Kovalchuk, told Business Insider on Oct. 25.
Danilov: Ukraine to increase domestic ammunition production. Ukraine will soon step up its production of shells by involving private companies in the process, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksii Danilov said on Oct. 26.
Russian hydrographic boat Vladimir Kozytsky reportedly got damaged near Sevastopol. It is reported that smoke poured from the engine room. A tugboat was brought to the ship and towed it towards Streltska Bay.
Drones loaded with explosives tried to attack Kursk nuclear power plant in Kurchatov last night, Russian media cited by the BBC have claimed.
One of the drones allegedly exploded near a nuclear waste storage facility. According to the Baza telegram channel, the first drone fell in the area of the dog training camp and did not detonate. The second, an aircraft-type jet UAV, was found lying on the asphalt; it also did not explode.
But the third drone allegedly attacked a warehouse with nuclear waste. According to Baza sources, the explosion damaged the façade of the warehouse building.
Behind the Lines
Military intelligence: Car carrying FSB agents explodes in occupied Berdiansk. Four agents from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) were allegedly inside a car that exploded in occupied Berdiansk on Oct. 23, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on Oct. 26.
Monique: Ukraine continues its sabotage missions in Russia. There have been many strikes against infrastructure and supply depots in recent days.
Zelenskyy signs law strengthening financial monitoring of politicians. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on Oct. 26 on financial monitoring of politically exposed persons, which is a vital step on the country's path toward EU membership.
Reuters: Export blockade threatens Ukraine's steel industry. Ukraine's massive steel industry has faced massive losses as a result of Russia's war and the related blockade of the Black Sea, Reuters reported on Oct. 26.
Iohannis: Romania installs anti-drone system at Ukraine's border. Romania has already installed an anti-drone system at the Danube Delta near the border with Ukraine, the country's President Klaus Iohannis said on Oct. 26, Digi24 reported.
The Insider: Russian Kinzhal manufacturer imports components from EU. Russian factories that produce Kinzhal missiles are using components from multiple European Union countries, Russian investigative news outlet The Insider reported on Oct. 25.
Media: Europe continues to import over $14 billion of Russian raw materials. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has continued to import billions of euros worth of "critical" raw materials from Russia, media outlet Investigate Europe highlighted in a report on Oct. 24.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russian parliament approves bill to withdraw from nuclear test ban treaty. Both houses of the Russian parliament unanimously approved a bill to withdraw Russia from the nuclear test ban treaty on Oct. 25, passing the bill on to dictator Vladimir Putin for final approval.
Russia says it practiced large-scale nuclear strike. The tests included a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launched from a cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk Oblast, a Sineva ballistic missile launched from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea, and TU-95MS bombers launching cruise missiles, Moscow claims.
Hamas delegation visits Moscow. A delegation of the militant group Hamas, which governs Gaza, arrived in Moscow on Oct. 26, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said without elaborating on the visit details. Hamas also reported on the visit via their official Telegram channel, saying that the delegation is headed by the group's senior political member, Moussa Abu Marzouk.
Russian propagandist Skabeeva questions the legitimacy of Israel's existence. Seven SVR agents were in Gaza two months ago. The trilateral relationship—Russia, Iran, Hamas—has solidified.
Putin oversaw ballistic missile drills remotely, the Kremlin has said, hours after Russia moved to revoke its ratification of a landmark nuclear test ban treaty.
Two sources close to the Russian government have told Meduza that the Putin administration has instructed the country’s state-controlled and pro-Kremlin media not to report on crimes committed by Russians who have returned from fighting in the war in Ukraine, including mercenaries and former convicts who received amnesty in exchange for going to war.
Media: Medvedchuk acquires yacht worth over $9 million. Documents show that a brand-new yacht worth 886 million rubles ($9.4 million) is likely in the hands of the Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, independent Russian media outlet Verstka reported on Oct. 27.
Lavrov in North Korea: In pouring rain, a jubilant crowd waving pompoms and flowers greeted the Russian foreign minister as he stepped on to the airport asphalt in Pyongyang. While the heavily choreographed welcoming scenes were a familiar sight in totalitarian North Korea, Sergei Lavrov’s rare visit to the country came amid mounting evidence that Pyongyang has started to provide artillery rounds to Russia, opening up a supply line that could have profound implications for the war in Ukraine.
Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and sanctions in Russia, the number of people who do not have enough wages to live has increased sharply. If in 2021 25% of Russians complained that their salaries do not cover basic needs, then in 2023 the share of such people increased to 45%. This was shown by a survey of the online job search service hh.ru, the results of which were published by RBC. Another 36% of respondents said that their salaries barely cover their basic needs. Those whose salary allows them to buy everything they need amounted to 20% in 2023, although two years ago their figure was 36%.
Luxembourg PM Xavier Bettel noted that the meeting between Orban and Putin was a manifestation of disrespect for Ukrainian soldiers. He stated that this "is a middle finger to all the soldiers who die every day in Ukraine and suffer from the Russian attack." Bettel added that the EU should not become a hostage of Orban, who is making financial demands to approve support for Ukraine.
Monique: Orbàn is a sheep in wolf’s clothing. The Fidesz Party has consistently voted in favour for measures that aid Ukraine. The Hungarian representatives usually place their demands forward, others cave and they get what they want. A lot of what we see is political theatre but this is beyond the pale and has angered many European leaders. And it’s just not Orbàn’s posture towards Russia that is unacceptable, I am told that China’s presence in Hungary is notable. This is the result of a oligarchic leader who needs money because his people have stolen most of it. Hungary is a cautionary tale for anyone thinking of voting for a populist leader.
Lukashenka has invited Orbàn to visit his country. Lukashenka extended the invitation to Orban at a meeting with Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto, who arrived in Belarus earlier this week. Lukashenka expressed readiness “for a dialogue with European countries” and invited Orban over “to discuss serious matters.”
EU leaders could not agree on the $50 billion aid package to Ukraine. Hungary and Slovakia opposed the proposed package. Orban said this proposal “isn’t working for us”, while Slovakian leader Fico said it will not support military aid to Ukraine.
Moscow thermal power plant catches fire. The power station provides heat and electricity to industrial facilities and households in the city's northwest part with a population of over 1.5 million.
Monique: Russian infrastructure is falling apart and that’s dangerous. In addition to this event, a third Russian aircraft had to make a crash landing signalling that the Russians are having problems procuring tech for domestic use. They certainly seem not to have problems to find tech for their missiles and other military kit.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC: “One of today’s Russian papers reports on a new Stalin monument in a children’s park and warns: “Comrade Stalin is rising again. He is coming back to life before our very eyes.” Plus, the story of a Wagner fighter buried…but still alive.”
Media: Kyrgyzstan set to adopt copy of Russian 'foreign agent' law. Kyrgyz human rights activists and NGOs are concerned the legislation is "almost identical to the Russian law on foreign agents" and have called on lawmakers to withdraw the bill.
“The Evil Empire must Fall”. A new postage stamp-style giant display outside Kyiv City Hall features a Ukrainian kitty with a box of matches sparking the final breakup of the Russian Empire
Allied Support
Ukraine Peace Formula meeting to take place in Malta next week. Malta will host the Ukraine Peace Formula meeting from Oct. 28 to 29, the Maltese Foreign Ministry announced on Oct. 20. The peace formula, supported by many Western allies, includes the restoration of the country's territorial integrity, a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, and judging those responsible for war crimes.
EU leaders meeting in Brussels yesterday discussed bolstering support for Ukraine. The discussion on Ukraine was taking place on the second day of the summit, after the first day was dominated by coming up with a unified EU position on the Israel-Hamas war. EU Council Pres Michel said the most important point for the second day on how “we develop more support for Ukraine and that we maintain and even we reinforce the pressure against Russia through our sanctions”.
“It’s really important that one of the outcomes of this meeting is that we don’t lose focus on Ukraine because of all the other things that are happening in the world and not least in the Middle East,” Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar said. “It would be very easy to lose focus on the war in Ukraine and essential that we don’t do that.”
EU leaders approve plans to use billions of euros from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. The European Commission will put forward relevant legislative proposals in December. The body issued a set of formal public conclusions following the culmination of the EU leaders summit.
Russia is responsible for the massive damage caused by its war of aggression against Ukraine. Decisive progress is needed, in coordination with partners, on how any extraordinary revenues held by private entities stemming directly from Russia’s immobilised assets could be directed to support Ukraine and its recovery and reconstruction, consistent with applicable contractual obligations, and in accordance with EU and international law. The European Council calls on the high representative and the commission to accelerate work with a view to submitting proposals.
It was very clear in the debate, despite the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, our focus continues to be on supporting Ukraine … We will continue delivering the much-needed weapons and ammunition. We will continue providing the much-needed financial relief.
Alex Raufoglu: U.S. and EU have agreed to step up joint efforts to undermine Russia’s ability to wage its war in Ukraine and to maintain an expanded defense industrial base and capacity, senior officials say. This will include:
Reaching out to those who help Russia acquire items or equipment for defense industrial base;
Reaching out to companies supplying critical raw materials & other items to Russia’s defense industrial base;
Reaching out to financial institutions facilitating such transfers.
Given Russia’s continued failure to abide by international law and its attempts to collapse Ukraine’s economy, the U.S. and the EU are convening experts to explore options to compensate Ukraine in a timely manner for the damage that Russia has caused, per NSC officials.
Germany has announced its commitment to provide an additional €200 million for the reconstruction of Ukraine, State Secretary in the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development Jochen Flasbarth said.
President Zelenskyy has expressed his gratitude to the UAE president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for humanitarian and energy aid that his country has received from the Gulf state.
The Turkish parliament says it won't look at Sweden's NATO application until the new year. "There's no rush" to look at it, apparently. To remember: Erdogan gave the green light a few days ago for the ratification to be sent to the Turkish parliament.
Moldova blocks access to Russian media used as part of 'information war.' Moldova blocked access to 22 Russian media sites, saying they were used as part of an "information war" against the country, according to a decree published by Moldova's Security and Information Service.
French president Emmanuel Macron has condemned the Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán’s recent meeting and handshake with Vladimir Putin.
“In the situation we are in with Russia, we should not use these bilateral contacts to negotiate things about ourselves that would weaken our unity [on Ukraine],” Macron said after a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels.
“Brussels did not invade Hungary,” he said. “Hungary made a sovereign decision to join our Europe … it is a sovereign choice which, afterwards, carries constraints, because we have all decided to delegate sovereignty to our Europe. All of us.”
Around the World
Another eight trucks carrying food, medicine and water are expected to cross into the Gaza Strip today, a senior United Nations official said, as a combination of technical, political and security issues were hindering deliveries. Officials are grappling with the issue of deciding how to distribute the scant aid.
Ukrainian ambassador Sergei Kislitsa expresses his solidarity with Israel at the U.N..
IDF spokesman announced yesterday that Israeli military ground forces would expand the operations inside the Gaza strip on Oct 27.
Likud's Danon may have given game away: "Heroes of Israel, as you set out today to the important task of defending the country and eliminating the enemy that rose to kill us, know that your bravery & the enemy's total defeat will be an important pillar in restoring IDF deterrence."
Reuters: Two US fighter jets struck weapons and ammunition facilities in Syria in retaliation for attacks on US forces by Iranian-backed militia as concerns grew that the Israel-Hamas war may spread. President Joe Biden ordered strikes on facilities used by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and groups that it backs.
Russia and China vetoed the UN resolution condemning the "monstrous terrorist attack" by Hamas, recognizes Israel's right to self-defense and calls for the release of the hostages the Emirates also vote no. Ten countries in favor, Mozambique and Brazil abstaining
U.S. House of Representative speaker, Mike Johnson, and the Russians
Julia Davis—Meanwhile in Russia—state TV is celebrating Mike Johnson's speakership, because of his anti-Ukrainian stance. They also appreciated Virginia Foxx yelling "Shut up!" to a reporter. This too is in total alignment with Russian values and interests.
CNN: The New York judge overseeing Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial on Friday denied a motion to keep Ivanka Trump from testifying.
Ivanka Trump’s attorneys had filed a motion to quash a subpoena for her testimony, arguing that she should not be forced to appear after an appellate court removed her as a defendant in the case.
But Judge Arthur Engoron on Friday denied the motion after hearing arguments on the matter, though he said her testimony should not be scheduled before Wednesday to give her time to appeal his ruling.
Maga does geopolitics…help.
Nolan Peterson, “Avdiivka”- Musk can go fly a kite.
Context: Elmo was on a space on Tuesday along with the usual suspects. They are a group of ‘realists’ who advocate coming to an agreement with Russia because otherwise we will all die. Musk said that Ukriane had to give up…and then didn’t say exactly what it was that Ukraine had to give Russia. Elmo’s speech mirrored Putin’s July 2021 historical essay to a tee—he must have memorised it.
Considering the recent comments by Elon Musk, I want to re-post this video report of mine from Avdiivka, a city in eastern Ukraine, from May 2021.
A mostly Russian-speaking city, Avdiivka suffered years of Russian bombardments. Watch the video — it’s clear the civilians there have no love lost for Russia.
The teacher I interviewed in this video described how children hit the ground in fear at the sound of a balloon popping…the mother I interviewed began to sob while she described the emotional trauma suffered by her children after years of Russian bombardments.
I’ve made countless trips to eastern Ukraine since 2014, and the story was consistent across the region — those people living under Russian artillery and rockets had no desire to be a part of Russia.
In fact, each new Russian atrocity hardened their pro-Ukrainian, pro-democratic convictions. And that reality has exponentially accelerated since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion…particularly in the eastern, predominantly Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine, which have suffered the worst of Russia’s war crimes.
In every corner of Ukraine, from east to west, Russia faces the limits of the lies it tells itself….namely, that people who speak Russian want to be a part of Russia.
And so, Russia does what it has done time and time again — it simply destroys the people and places that betray its fantasies of greatness.