Oct 3 Buonasera Mag
Day 223: UA amazing advances, Kherson, Lyman, Izyum, 1.5m missing uniforms, Kadyrov, UA-NATO, Macron, The Pope, Truss-A&Ps- Scherba, Fulda, Harding, Seskuria, Davis, Gorski
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Хай буде з вами Сила
Stories we’re following…
This is fun: take a look.
Zelensky confirmed Ukraine has “fully cleared” Russian forces from the key eastern city of Lyman, a day after Moscow admitted its troops had pulled out after they were encircled.
President Zelensky has said that Ukraine is not just experiencing military success in Lyman, but also in Kherson. In his overnight statement, he said Ukraine forces have liberated the small Arkhanhelske and Myrolyubivka settlements in the Kherson region.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Borova and are advancing on Svatove from three directions.
The Ukrainian AF confirm their artillery inflicted significant losses on the Russian fascist invaders in Kyrylivka in the south of Donetsk region. Up to 20 units of military equipment were destroyed and up to 8 rashist combat helicopters were seriously damaged.
ISW: The defeat around Lyman also indicates that Putin – who has reportedly been micromanaging Russian commanders on the ground – is deprioritizing defending Luhansk Oblast in favor of holding occupied territories in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine is starting to believe it can take back Crimea. A top rep to pres Zelensky, Tamila Tasheva and her team spend their days discussing the logistics of what would happen should Kyiv regain control. “This is moment X. Right now everything is happening in a way that it feels inevitable,” said Tasheva. “It may not happen tomorrow, but I think it will be much quicker than I thought a year ago.”
Peskov said that Russia will consult with residents living in two of the Ukrainian regions it moved to annex last week – Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – on how their borders should be defined.
UK intelligence: Public criticism to increase in Russia if Ukraine liberates more territory. The U.K. Defense Ministry said that Russian forces likely experienced heavy casualties when they withdrew from the town of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast on Oct. 1.
AP has found evidence of 10 torture sites in the city of Izium, following Russia’s retreat. Here’s some of their reporting on the ground:
A deep sunless pit with dates carved into the brick wall. A clammy underground jail that reeked of urine and rotting food. A clinic, a police station and a kindergarten.
These were among the 10 Russian torture sites located by Associated Press journalists throughout the Ukrainian city of Izium. Torture in Izium was arbitrary, widespread and absolutely routine for both civilians and soldiers during the six months the Russians controlled the city, an AP investigation has found.
The Kremlin is still determining which areas of occupied Ukraine it has “annexed”, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson has said. Putin has vowed to protect Russia’s newly claimed territories using “all means at its disposal”, indicating a potential nuclear strike. The lack of a clear red line may undermine his attempts at using nuclear deterrence to halt Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive and western support for Kyiv.
Swedish authorities report that the gas leak from the Nord Stream 2 hole in the Swedish Economic Zone is increasing in strength. It seems as if the Russians are pumping gas into the pipeline. As long as there is gas, it won’t be possible to get close to investigate.
Russian MP Gurulyov says that 1.5 million military uniforms have disappeared. Gurulyov says that Russian conscripts are being sent to war without appropriate kits, and demands accountability from outgoing Deputy Defence Minister General Bulgakov.
Russia has sacked the commander of its western military district, Col Gen Alexander Zhuravlyov, according to news outlet RBC. Zhuravlyov is the latest in a series of top officials to be fired after a series of defeats and humiliations in the war in Ukraine.
1000s of people mobilised from the Khabarovsk have been sent home due to wrongful mobilisation, according to a local official. The Khabarovsk regional governor Degtyaryov said an enlistment officer had been suspended for the wrongful mobilisation.
Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency is reporting that Chechen leader and Vladimir Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov has said that his three underage sons are heading to fight in Ukraine. He also said he will be sending his underage sons to the front. (right.)
On Saturday, a popular Russian Telegram channel reports that an “information uprising against MOD” is underway in Russia, with Kadyrov, Prigozhin, members of the military and Duma harshly criticizing recent military failures.
Igor Girkin says that Vladimir Kvachkov might be the only person who can reverse Russia's fortunes in Ukraine. Kvachkov supported extreme tactics, such as mining the evacuation zone for Chechens in Grozny, and proposed a war plan for Serbia that was too extreme for Milosevic.
Former CIA director and retired army general David Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine He also says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’
The Russian government will ban truck transport through Russia for companies from countries which have previously taken analogous measures against Russian freight carriers. The decree was published on October 1. The ban covers all EU countries, the UK, Norway, and Ukraine. However, a number of categories of goods have been removed from the ban – the government also published a list of these categories.
This is what Putin’s Red Square show really sounded like.
The head of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP has been released, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi.
These countries support Ukraine’s accession to NATO: 1) Romania 2) The Czech Republic 3) Estonia 4) Latvia 5) Lithuania 6) Montenegro 7) North Macedonia 8) Poland 9) Slovakia 10) Canada 11) Germany 12) USA. Lithuania's Defense Ministry: Negotiations on Ukraine joining NATO should begin now.
EU consumes 4 times less Russian gas than before all-out invasion. Since Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU has decreased its consumption of Russian gas from 40% to 9%, Matti Maasikas, the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, told RBK-Ukraine.
Macron vows that France will help Ukraine restore its territorial integrity. In a phone call with Zelensky, Macron condemned Russia’s recent illegal annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts and said France would help Ukraine restore “full sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Pope Francis: “Profoundly saddened by the immense suffering of the Ukrainian people as a result of the aggression they have suffered, I address an equally confident appeal to the President of Ukraine to be open to serious proposals for peace.”
Three European nations to finance production of 16 Slovak howitzers for Ukraine. Denmark, Norway, and Germany have committed $90 million to finance the production of Slovak Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers, Ukrainian newspaper Yevropeiska Pravda reported.
The EU plans to train up to 15,000 Ukrainian servicemen as part of a special training mission - Der Spiegel, citing sources.
Czechs crowdfund over $1 million to buy a tank for Ukraine. The crowdfunding campaign raised 33 million Czech crowns ($1.31 million) from 11,288 donors to buy a T-72 Avenger tank that has been modernized, according to the campaign statement.
Italian tax police freeze Villa Altachiara in Portofino, owned by russian oligarch Eduard Khudainatov. Khudainatov is also formal owner of Scheherazade mega yacht, believed to be owned by Putin and frozen by italian authorities last may.
Viktor Orbán's MPs voted NO on the opposition's proposal to hold a parliamentary vote on the Finnish and Swedish NATO accession tomorrow. Opposition parties are losing their patience as Hungary and Turkey are the last NATO members not to ratify the enlargement. Orbán's parliamentary supermajority didn't even put the NATO enlargement bills on the required parliamentary committees' agendas for September and October, another clear sign that they don't want to pass them anytime soon.
Inflation in Turkey has climbed above 83% - a 24-year-high. The transport, food and housing sectors have seen the biggest rise in prices. Independent experts the Inflation Research Group estimate the annual rate is actually 186.27%.
NYT: In a striking reversal, Prime Minister Liz Truss of Britain scrapped a plan to cut taxes on high earners, part of a widely criticized proposal.
Brazil’s acrimonious presidential race will go to a second round after the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva failed to secure the overall majority he needed to avoid a runoff with the far-right incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro.
Luke Harding, Humiliation for Vladimir Putin as Ukrainians liberate key city of Lyman- The Guardian
Zelensky: "Russia has organized a farce in the Donbass. An absolute farce that it wanted to present as a referendum. And now the Ukrainian flag flies in those places. And next there will be even more."
For ever turned out to mean less than 24 hours. As workmen dismantled the stage, put up on the cobbled square outside the Kremlin, Ukrainian troops marched into the eastern city of Lyman, from where Putin’s army had just made an inglorious retreat. At one point Lyman’s liberators even performed a victory dance, hopping cheerfully from side to side along a sandy forest path.
Natia Seskuria, Massive arrival of young Russians in Georgia: "They are not against the war, they just want not to do it"- Le Parisien
Natia Seskuria is a researcher associated with the British think-tank Rusi, specialist in defense and security issues, and founder of a center for international studies based in Tbilisi (Georgia). According to the expert, the massive influx of Russian nationals into Georgia is the “major and main problem” of the country, which sees itself as the “next on the list” of Russian imperialism, after Ukraine .
Julia Davis, Russian TV is very excited about Такер Карлсон’s Nord Stream theory- WaPo
If you are less dedicated to tracking rhetoric that might be embraced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, you may have missed Carlson’s riff on Tuesday. The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake walked through it in detail, but the short version is that Carlson suggested that damage to two underwater gas pipelines in Europe was possibly a function of U.S. saboteurs.
Susan B. Glasser, What if We’re Already Fighting the Third World War with Russia? The New Yorker
On Thursday, I spoke with the Russia expert Fiona Hill. She told me she believes there’s an element of self-delusion to much of the current commentary about the possibility of Washington and the West continuing to back Ukraine while avoiding conflict with Putin—who, after all, launched his war against Ukraine not in February but eight years ago when he invaded the country and illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula. As far as Hill is concerned, we are already fighting in the Third World War, whether we acknowledge it or not. “We’ve been in this for a long time, and we’ve failed to recognize it,” she said.
