Oct 3: E-Stories
Day586 RUattacksKherson CombatSit Zapo InRussia gas BehindLines EUmeetsZe grain UAEU Germany Musk Trump JP Armenia Moldova Slovakia AfD20DaysInMariupol A&P Lavrov UKDef Avdeeva Davis ISW Noel Reports
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Well folks, there it is. It was bound to come to the surface sooner or later.
Stories we’re following…
Russian shelling of of Kherson overnight killed at least 2 people and injured 10, including two children, the regional governor said on Monday. Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram that Russian forces had launched 71 attacks in the past 24 hours that were “aimed at the residential districts” as well as shops and medical infrastructure, among other establishments. Authorities put out a fire caused by shelling early on Monday, he said.
Russia fired at a transport company in Kherson on Monday morning, said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Regional Military Administration. Four people are known injured of which two are in serious condition.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Ukrainian forces made confirmed marginal advances south of Bakhmut as of Oct. 1. Geolocated footage published on Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced eastward over the railway line east of Andriivka (10km SW of Bakhmut).
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 1. Geolocated footage published on September 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced northwest of Robotyne (13km south of Orikhiv).
Russian forces are conducting tactical counterattacks in the Robotyne area as part of their elastic defense against ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
AFU cleared and now controls the whole area near the railway tracks east of Klishchiivka. At certain places, they already managed to pass the railway tracks and advance several hundred meters eastward.
Estonian volunteer killed in Lyman. Tanel Krieggul, call sign "Stinger," fought with the International Legion, a unit for foreigners dedicated to Ukraine's defense. His house was reportedly hit by a Russian kamikaze drone.
The GUR reports that Ukraine managed to attack and damage the Smolensk Aviation Plant which produces KH-59 missiles. According to them, 3 out of 4 drones hit the target, causing significant damage to the production facilities.
In Rostov-on-Don, partisans have reportedly set fire to a warehouse with military uniforms. The SKRYPACH partisan movement took responsibility for the attack.
Serbia’s troop deployment on Kosovo’s border is similar to Russia’s behaviour towards Ukraine before its invasion, the Kosovan foreign minister said, urging the EU to take action against Belgrade such as freezing its candidacy status. The warning comes after the US said on Friday it was monitoring a troubling Serbian military buildup along the Kosovo frontier that was destabilising the area, and after Nato said it was authorising additional peacekeeping forces for Kosovo, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile in Russia
The Kremlin said on Monday it believed that fatigue with the Ukraine war would grow in the US and Europe, but that Washington would continue to be directly involved in the conflict. Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, was commenting on a US Congress decision to pass a stopgap funding bill that omitted aid for Kyiv.
Monique: This is what they are banking on. On the surface, their information operations point to their desire for the unilateral disarmament of Ukraine but they are part of a plan: the strategy of protracted conflict. The fewer weapons and ammunitionUkraine receives, the less it can defend itself and allow Russia to freeze the war. The protracted strategy means Russia can use all forms of violent and non-violent warfare: that’s what we are seeing. Time is an ally to Russia in this scenario: it can tactically retreat, regroup and prepare the terrain so that it’s an advantage to them. They can make correctives and shift the battleground.
The monopolization of the grain market after the departure of foreign players who left Russia after the start of the war in Ukraine has brought thousands of farms to the brink of bankruptcy. Grain traders buy grain below cost, and this destroys the economy of farms, said Sergei Lisovsky, a member of the State Duma Committee on Agrarian Issues. According to him, the reason for what is happening is low competition. “A few years ago there were 400 traders in the country, now there are only three,” the deputy complained. “Wheat export quotas are divided between these three traders, and this situation allows them to twist the arms of the producer.”
Allied Support
The IMF mission visited Ukraine for the first time in more than 3 years. During the meeting, the steps necessary to implement the four-year program worth $15.6 billion were discussed. The program is part of a package of international support with a total cost of $115 billion. Prime Minister Shmyhal noted that he told the representatives of the mission about Ukraine's main directions, in particular, investment attraction, small and medium-sized business support programs and public-private partnership.
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said during a visit to Kyiv on Sunday that Ukraine needed more military aid and he promised ongoing EU support, Reuters reports. “Ukraine needs more capabilities & needs them faster,” he said in a statement posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. He said he had discussed “continuous EU military assistance” during his first in-person meeting with Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. “We are preparing long-term security commitments for Ukraine,” Borrell added.
Reuters: EU foreign ministers held their first ever meeting outside the bloc in Ukraine, a show of support for the country after a pro-Russian candidate won an election in Slovakia and the US Congress omitted funding for Kyiv from a spending bill.
The EU has proposed a “bilateral envelope” worth €5bn for Ukraine’s defence as part of the existing European peace facility, its chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, said at a press conference in Kyiv after an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers.
German Foreign Minister: EU will soon extend 'from Lisbon to Luhansk.' Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also emphasized the need for Ukraine's allies to increase the strength of a "winter protection umbrella" to protect Ukrainian critical infrastructure from Russian attacks.
German exports of military equipment to Ukraine grew more than fourfold so far this year, making Kyiv the main recipient of German arms, the economy ministry said on Monday. Ukraine accounted for €3.3bn (£2.86.bn) out of Germany’s total value of authorised military exports of €8.76bn in the first nine months of the year.
A Ukrainian victory in the war with Russia depends on cooperation with the EU, Zelenskyy, told EU foreign ministers gathered in Kyiv on Monday. Zelenskyy, who was speaking after the US Congress left Ukraine war aid out of a spending bill, also underlined the importance of “defence support” for Ukraine during the war, Reuters reports. Ukraine also hopes to gain accession to the EU within two years.
Ukraine is waiting for the eighth tranche of the European Union for military aid in the amount of €500 million to be unblocked. Zelenskyi said during the Foreign Minister meeting today. Since May, Hungary has been opposing this particular tranche. President Zelensky also spoke with EU Commission chief von der Leyen about alternative corridors for Ukrainian agricultural products.
Japan's move to bar most used-car sales to Russia slammed the brakes on a trade nearing $2 billion annually that had boomed in the shadow of sanctions over Ukraine elsewhere, according to trade data and market participants.
Bulgaria joins the list of other EU countries that will close the border for cars with Russian license plates by the end of the day. The Czech Republic became the second country after Germany where they began to confiscate cars with Russian license plates. At least one such case is known, Izvestia writes with reference to the response of the German government to a request from Bundestag deputy from the Alternative for Germany party Eugene Schmidt.
Moldova will no longer purchase gas from Gazprom, since the country has found cheaper fuel from alternative suppliers, said the head of the Moldovan Ministry of Energy, Victor Parlicov. According to him, Chisinau will now receive gas from the European market. “Moreover, we were able to do this at a lower price than the formula that we prescribed in the contract with Gazprom,” added Parlikov.
Slovakia has offered refuge to nearly 200,000 Ukrainians, is an unflinching supporter of economic sanctions against Russia, and has made substantial military contributions to Ukraine in both practical and symbolic terms. Fico’s victorious election is making a lot of people nervous: will he pull support for Ukraine and advocate on behalf of Russia? We’ll be following this story.
Around the World
Reuters: Scientists Katalin Kariko and Drew Weissman won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discoveries enabling the development of COVID-19 vaccines, the award-giving body said.
WaPo: Donald Trump’s fraud trial in New York starts today. New York Attorney General Letitia James alleges that Trump and his company inflated the values of its assets to defraud lenders and insurance companies. The former president faces $250 million in financial penalties and could be forced to sell his New York properties. He’s expected to testify at some point. Trump, who is running for president again, is facing four criminal cases alongside this civil case.
Programming note…
‘It felt like the beginning of the third world war … It still does’ – Mstyslav Chernov on 20 Days in Mariupol—The Guardian
Men in uniform are milling around outside a cafe in Sloviansk. Military trucks trundle past every few seconds. The town, in the Donetsk region, is the rear echelon of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. A black armoured car pulls up, and out of it slips journalist and film-maker Mstyslav Chernov. With his black T-shirt and trousers, black sunglasses, and black med-kit strapped to his thigh, he looks every inch the conflict reporter. He is 38. When he finally takes off his sunglasses, the intense gaze of his pouchy, tired-looking eyes makes him seem older.
That is hardly surprising. The war visited on Ukraine by its eastern neighbour since 2014 has destroyed many existences and transformed countless others. One of its consequences has been the creation of a generation of young conflict reporters. “In a country at war, if you’re a good documentary photographer, or at least trying to be good” – as he was before the Russian-backed takeovers in the Donbas and of Crimea – “you automatically become a war photographer.” One of the Kharkiv-born journalist’s earliest jobs was filming the carnage of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crash site in 2014. Later, he worked in Syria, Karabakh, Iraq and Kurdistan.
Monique: 20 Days in Mariupol will be out in theatres this fall. I haven’t had the opportunity to see it yet as there have been no prescreenings here in Italy. However, I’v read all the articles about Mariupol published by this team in the Associated Press, and they were riveting and simply superb. I’m looking forward to seeing this when it comes out in Italy.