Russian attack Kherson Oblast village with 32 guided missiles and injures 2. The victims, a 40-year-old man and a 60-year-old woman were hospitalized following the attack, according to the Kherson Oblast Military Administration. On Oct 27, Russia launched an attack on Kherson region: 90 attacks, 516 shells, fired 24 aerial guided bombs.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia pauses air-launched cruise missile strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s Long Range Aviation hasn’t conducted air-launched cruise missile attacks against Ukraine for over a month, one of the longest gaps in such strikes since the full-scale invasion began, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Oct. 27.
Ukrenergo: Russian attacks damaged 70 large energy facilities in Ukraine. Russia’s campaign of mass strikes against Ukraine’s energy system damaged around 70 large facilities last fall and winter, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo, told Voice of America (VOA).
The destruction of Avdiivka by Russian forces.
Infrastructure Ministry: Over 1 million metric tons of cargo exported via temporary Black sea corridor. More than 1.3 million metric tons of Ukrainian agricultural products and other cargo has been exported by 37 ships using the temporary corridor in the Black Sea, the Infrastructure Ministry reported on Oct. 27.
Combat Situation Update
Russia claims 36 drones downed in Black Sea. The Russian Defense Ministry said on Oct. 29 that its forces have destroyed 36 Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea and northwestern Crimea.
"The Russian losses in the Avdiivka area are about 4,000 in personnel," Minister of Defense Umerov said during a telephone conversation with US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin.
It is reported that a Russian plane was shot down near Avdiivka by Ukrainian Border Guards. Preliminary info states it would be a Su-25.
A fire broke out in early hours today at the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, local emergency authorities said, after social media reports of powerful blasts. The fire at the refinery, which lies 50 miles (80km) east of the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, one of Russia’s most important oil export gateways, was caused by a drone attack.
The attack was a special operation of the SBU. The Afipsky oil refinery, which supplied fuel to Russian troops, was attacked by two SBU drones. Expensive equipment was reportedly damaged.
Explosions reported in occupied Crimea. There have been reports of explosions near Chornomorske in Russian-occupied Crimea, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported late on Oct. 28.
Oct 29: Three out of four Iskander-M missiles launched from occupied Crimeawere shot down. The Air Force reports a fourth one didn’t reach its target. (Monique: this is good news since it may indicate that Ukraine may be improving its electronic warfare counter-measures.)
Air Force: Ukraine downs 5 Russian drones. Ukraine’s air defense shot down five Shahed drones overnight on Oct. 29, the Air Force said in their morning update. The drones were launched from Russia's port city of Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodarsk Krai.
Satellite images of Russia’s Belbek airfield in annexed Sevastopol published on October 26 show two-dimensional “fighter jets” that have been painted on the tarmac, according to OSINT analyst MT Anderson.
A representative of the US Air Force noted that earlier this week, Ukrainian pilots began training "the basics of F-16 operation" at the base of the 162nd unit of the Arizona Air National Guard.
ISW: Russia’s special forces commander confirms Rosgvardia recruits former Wagner fighters into Chechen battalion. Former Wagner Group mercenaries are joining Chechnya’s Akhmat battalion and heading to the war in Ukraine, Akhmat Battalion Commander Apti Alaudinov confirmed in an Oct. 28 interview, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest report.
Behind the Lines
Crimean schoolchildren are being trained as part of a military-patriotic programcalled the“School of Future Commanders”.In Sevastopol yesterday the training was conducted under the guidance of military personnel and included multi-sport racing, emergency medicine, and weapons handling.
Russians are actively modernizing and expanding the roads that connect Crimea with the south of Kherson. The bridges have all been prepared with exit routes in case of destruction; pontoons can also be quickly installed.
In Mariupol, Russian forces repaired and re-opened a bridge near Azovstal. The bridge is located on the highway that connects the Rostov region with Crimea through the territory of the self-proclaimed DPR. The bridge can receive up to 15,000 vehicles per day.
Atesh, a partisan movement, reported that the occupiers were creating their "territorial defence forces" to maintain control over Crimea. Two units are located in Yalta and one unit is located in Alushta.
Russia continues to aggressively integrate Zaporizhzhia Oblast into the Russian educational system. On the basis of Melitopol State University, the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Service, which is under the President of the Russian Federation, started "a program of improving the qualifications of state and municipal employees of the new regions."
Wanted pro-Russian politician reportedly shot in Crimea. Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Russian Ukrainian politician who fled Ukraine in 2014, was shot in the early hours of Oct. 27 in Russian-occupied Crimea, according to Russian reports.
The latest information on the Baltic Connector via Dr Benjamin Schmitt. You’ll recall that the New New Polar Bear, a Chinese ship, is thought to be responsible for damage to the connector cable.
Russian soldiers report ‘torture pits’ used for ‘discipline’ at military training grounds.
Russian military training grounds in the villages of Prudboy in the Volgograd region and Totsky in the Orenburg region contain “torture pits” that are used to “discipline” trainees, the investigative outlets iStories and Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reported on Tuesday, citing soldiers who have undergone training at the facilities.
CIT learned of the existence of the “torture pit” in Prudboy from a former soldier who was sent there in June 2023. He said that several of his fellow servicemen were beaten by military police and then forced to spend time in the pits after they were caught getting drunk.
The amounts of time trainees were left in the pits ranged from several days to an entire week, according to the former soldier. He said the men were given food once a day and deprived of medical care. He also told CIT that one soldier died after spending time in a “torture pit,” but the outlet was unable to independently verify this claim.
The Malta summit began on Saturday, with the head of the office of the president of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, arguing that more countries are signing up to its “peace plan” and that Russia will have to submit to the international community.
Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Mykola Tochytskyi, pointedly accuse Russiaof having a history of “provoking” and “stoking” hybrid conflicts across Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
“We warned that turning a blind eye to [Russian] violation of international peace and security would fuel conflicts in the world,” Tochytskyi said amid the Israel-Hamas war. For context, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has previously expressed fears that the aftermath of Hamas’s attack on Israel could threaten military support for Ukraine.
The 10 key points that president Zelenskyy has outlined for the country’s “peace formula”, first announced last October.
Radiation and nuclear safety
Food security
Energy security
Release of all prisoners of war and deportees
Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity
Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities
Justice
Protection of the environment
Preventing escalation of the conflict
Confirmation of the war’s end
A third round of Ukrainian-backed peace talks opened in Malta, but without Moscow, which condemned it. In a statement afterwards, president, Zelenskyy, said 66 countries had taken part, proof that his plan “has gradually become global”. It follows similar meetings in Jeddah and Copenhagen, with the Ukrainians hoping to eventually hold a summit at the level of heads of state.
Andrew Michta: What’s happening in Washington
I have been back in DC for 1.5 months now, and I'm struck by the apparent lack of urgency in our national security policy debates when it comes to addressing the threats the US and its allies face, as they continue to multiply at speed.
1. Ukraine War is in its 2nd year.
2. We're looking at potentially another major regional war triggered by Hamas's attack on Israel. It has expanded the front and put additional strains on America's military resources.
3. As pressure build on Kosovo, I'm concerned that the Balkans may become another theater.
America's adversaries are preparing for war. China is investing heavily across the spectrum of its military capabilities, and Russia is busy at work expanding its armor production. The "axis of dictatorships" includes also two smaller players: Iran and North Korea.
Our analysts continue to push various and sundry estimates of Chinese and Russian capabilities estimates, but in my opinion, miss the fundamentals. The baseline should be that both the Chinese and Russian militaries are being built not to deter us but to attack. This should drive our planning.
We also continue to underestimate our adversaries. A case in point: Moscow has shown it understands mass; after 1.5 yrs the Russian army is capable of fighting and mobilizing at the same time. We need to re-learn that maneuver and attrition on the battlefield are linked.
The PLA and PLAN are untested, but they've shown they understand mass, redundancies and the imperative of stockpiling. But we keep talking precision, investing in ever-more expensive platforms of which we can buy fewer and fewer. Plus, our defense industrial base is too small.
The massive expenditure of weapons, munitions, and human life in Ukraine ought to be a wake-up call for our political leaders and military planners. We need to ask whether our all-volunteer force model is up to the task of generating the capabilities and reserves we'll need.
The solution is not to “pivot to Asia,” but to rebuild the force, with the requisite redundancies in the reserves. Simply put, it is imperative that the United States and Europe increase their defense spending and rethink what we spend money on and how we generate our forces.
The US needs to move beyond the normative/reactive pronouncements about “defending the rules-based order." Let's stop talking about “great power competition” and ask instead what a geo-strategic map that favors America’s and other democracies’ interests should look like?
Orbàn is such a popular guy! Maybe he should go back to China to have lunch with his friends.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia would confiscate European assets if frozen funds 'stolen' by EU. Russia would confiscate assets belonging to EU states it deems unfriendly if the bloc “steals” frozen Russian funds in a drive to fund Ukraine, Vyacheslav Volodin, a top ally of Putin said today.
“A number of European politicians, led by the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, have once again started talking about stealing our country’s frozen funds in order to continue the militarisation of Kyiv,” the close Putin ally said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.
“Such a decision would require a symmetrical response from the Russian Federation. In that case, far more assets belonging to unfriendly countries will be confiscated than our frozen funds in Europe.”
Russia hikes interest rates to 15% amid soaring inflation. This marks the fourth time Russia's Central Bank has raised lending costs this year. Since July, the bank has raised rates by a total of 7.5 percentage points.
Steve Rosenberg: “Rewriting the past. This history book for Russian children says Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin was “honest…he sincerely wanted his people to live better” and doesn’t blame Stalin for the mass repressions and terror.”
“World War III is about to begin. Everyone should be ready!” Kim Jong-un said. He stated that due to the escalation in the Middle East, the "flames of war" may spread to other regions of the world.
Monique: As more and more proxies are activated by Russia, Iran or China, hyperbolic narratives, aimed at scaremongering, will heighten. The sign of proxy wars will signal Russia’s need to dilute the allied effort to aid Ukraine, specifically the United States. This will create more confusion and instability globally.
Lukashenko urges talks between Russia, Ukraine. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said over the weekend that Russia and Ukraine need to engage in negotiations as both sides find themselves in a protracted frontline stalemate.
Military: Russian troops arrive in Belarus to train local drone operators. Citing Belarusian opposition, the Ukrainian military said that Russian specialists are arriving at the military base in Byaroza, Brest region in western Belarus.
Russia is an imperialist power, and as such it feels it has the right to take territory, its people, homes, everything. The Russian imperialist vision goes back to the Tsars, and the Russians have never let up from this view of themselves in the world.
Beijing Xiangshan Forum, China’s biggest annual show of military diplomacy, started on Sunday,but the name of Russian defence ministerSergei Shoigu, initially slated as the first guest speaker at tomorrow’s opening ceremony, was not on the agenda.
His slated appearance was originally thought to suggest China intends to give Russia, which invaded in Ukraine in 2022, centre stage at the forum. But as of today, his name was not on the agenda, Reuters reported.
China hopes to use the forum to promote president Xi Jinping’s vision for a safer world and draw developing countries closer, as it faces increased coordination between the US and its allies to curtail its military ambitions. The US defence department has sent a delegation led by Xanthi Carras, China country director in the office of the undersecretary of defence.
Allied Support
Canada to facilitate a global network of countries working to free kidnapped Ukrainian children from Russia or territories it occupies. Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska said last month that an estimated 19,000 children were forcibly removed from their homes since the war started.
Denmark donates military equipment worth ~$522 million, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery ammunition, drones and small arms to Ukraine. This is written by the Ministry of Defense in a press release.
EU Commission confirms work on 12th Russia sanctions package underway. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has confirmed that the work on the 12th Russia sanctions package, which may include restrictions on Russian diamond exports, is underway, European Pravda reported on Oct. 27.
"We are considering how to reduce the remaining income that Russia receives from the export of diamonds to Europe and its partners," von der Leyen reportedly said at a press conference in Brussels.
Monique: this isn’t enough. I understand that there are formidable roadblocks to approving this funding, but the EU needs to accellerate its activities. Ukraine needs this help now and not when it’s been destroyed by Russia.
Bloomberg: EU behind track on provision of shells to Ukraine. The European Union is falling short of its target of providing Ukraine with one million rounds of artillery shells by March, unnamed sources told Bloomberg on Oct. 25.
Reuters: War in Ukraine boosting US defense industry. The U.S. defense industry has seen increased profits as the U.S. has sought new contracts to refill depleted domestic stockpiles and European countries, wary of Russia, have placed new weapons orders, a Reuters report on Oct. 27 detailed.
DoD Readout: “The Department of Defense today announced entrance into a bilateral, non-binding Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) with the Republic of Lithuania. The arrangement will enable both the U.S. and Lithuania to acquire the industrial resources they need to quickly meet defense requirements, resolve unanticipated disruptions that challenge defense capabilities, and promote supply chain resiliency.”
Ukraine, Netherlands start talks on bilateral security guarantees agreement. According to the Ukrainian Presidential Office, the first round of consultations occurred on the sidelines of the Ukraine peace formula summit in Malta on Oct. 28.
Around the World
Israel would allow a dramatic increase in aid to Gaza in the coming days, an official said on Sunday, as he called on Palestinian civilians to head to what he described as a “humanitarian” zone in the south of the territory.
“In the coming week we were planning to increase dramatically the amount of assistance” headed for Gaza from Egypt, said Col Elad Goren of Cogat, the Israeli Defence Ministry agency that coordinates with the Palestinians.
“We have marked a humanitarian zone in the southern Gaza Strip in the Khan Younis area … we still recommend that the civilian population that evacuated will go to this zone,” he told media during an online briefing, according to Reuters.
Israel recalls diplomats from Turkey due to Erdogan's statements. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke at a Palestinian rally in Istanbul and called Israel an occupier. In response, Israel ordered its diplomats to leave Turkey.
Palestinian Red Crescent says Israel asks it to immediately evacuate al-Quds hospital. The Palestinian Red Crescent said on Sunday it has received warnings from Israeli authorities to immediately evacuate al-Quds hospital in the Gaza Strip, as it is “going to be bombarded”.
Fareed Zakaria’s Global GPS- Iran’s most dangerous game:
In recent years, Iran and Israel have engaged in a “shadow war” across the region featuring assassinations and proxy forces, as UCLA political scientist and Middle East expert Dalia Dassa Kaye detailed in Foreign Affairs in February. Ghattas and others seemed to view Hamas’s attacks as potentially a part of that semi-covert conflict. “That’s what makes a northern front, including Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, well within the realm of possibility,” Steven A. Cook said in a recent Council on Foreign Relations video on the Israel–Hamas war, referencing concerns that Hezbollah could attack Israel and open a new fighting front on Israel’s northern border.
As fears of a wider conflict simmer, The Economist warns that Iran is playing “the Middle East’s most dangerous game,” noting the decades of effort Tehran has spent building up its regional proxies. “Iran’s goal right now, as it has been over the past decade, is not to provoke outright war with the West and its allies but to sow uncertainty and instability,” the magazine asserts. “Just as it has hovered on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, so it maintains strategic ambiguity with the axis (of regional proxy forces). … The present crisis shows the opportunities and problems of Iran’s approach. It has long sponsored Hamas but did not appear to know in advance about its attack on Israel on October 7th, according to Western officials familiar with the matter. Yet it has sought to capitalise on Hamas’s atrocities and mobilise the axis of resistance. … Iran’s shadow war is a delicate game and it is not clear that the country can control its proxies.”
Rampant Disinformation: At this critical juncture of geopolitical destabilisation, it is imperative that we collectively keep in mind that all military campaigns are accompanied by information warfare when it comes to totalitarian states. The mass murder of 1400 Jews at the hands of the terrorist group Hamas was planned well ahead, at least since 2019 (please see article below).
The image below has been AI generated. Totalitarian states may be testing how effective these images are, and how much traction they generate for future use. Another thing to keep in mind is that authoritarian powers manipulate public opinion so that citizens in democratic states take to the streets and put pressure on their governments. This strategy was institutionalised and made official military strategic policy by the Soviets in the 1950s.
AP: Biden, Xi agree on meeting next month. U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have agreed to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in mid-November, the Associated Press reported, citing an unnamed U.S. official.
Exclusive Report By Iranian News Agency Tasnim: 'The "Mighty Pillar" Maneuvers Were The Resistance [Organizations'] Planning For An Attack On Israel; [They Constituted] Four Years Of Training The Palestinians For 'Al-Aqsa Flood'—Memri
The Iranian news agency Tasnim, which is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), published, on October 15, 2023, an exclusive report titled "The 'Mighty Pillar' Maneuvers Were The Resistance [Organizations'] Planning For An Attack On Israel; [They Constituted] Four Years Of Training The Palestinians For 'Al-Aqsa Flood.'" The report extensively reviewed documentation of Hamas members' training in maneuvers held in the past four years in advance of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
It should be noted that Hamas belongs to the Iran-led resistance axis, as do the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Shi'ite militias in Syria and the Golan Heights, the Shi'ite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.
Also, on October 10, 2023, the Iranian regime mouthpiece Kayhan boasted that the attack had been planned and organized by the late IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani and that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had hinted at the "complete conquest" of Israel in August 2022 and August 2023 (see MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 10857, October 12, 2023).
The detailed Tasnim report has two aims. One is to praise and glorify the actions of Hamas, an Islamic resistance organization that is a protégé of the Iranian regime, and to show its superiority over Israel's intelligence, organizational, and military capabilities.
The second reason for the report's publication is to claim that Iran is not connected to the Palestinians' actions and that the capabilities Hamas showed were the result of its own training, determination, and courage. However, it is clear from the Tasnim report that Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei himself had announced the name of "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood" years before it was carried out, and also in these statements had ordered the establishment of a joint command and control center of the resistance groups – groups operated, trained, and armed by Iran under the supervision of Soleimani and, after him, current Qods Force commander Esma'il Qa'ani. According to the Tasnim report, Khamenei said: "It is no surprise that the fighters and activists from all the [resistance] factions are coordinating all their efforts to fight the enemy, in training, equipment, preparation, and execution of a joint battle in the field."
The Tasnim report included photos from the Hamas training as well as photos taken during the attack on Israel on October 7; in the latter, the faces of the Hamas members were blurred.
It should be noted that along with the training and maneuvers for the October 7 attack, the report also detailed training that was carried out in preparation for a possible Israeli military ground incursion in Gaza.
The following is a translation of the Tasnim report, with the photos and a video that it included.
Elina Beketova: Russia’s Brainwashing of Teenagers in Occupied Ukraine
Pro-Russian Telegram channels are already filled with projects for young people in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, and similar russification programs will be stepped up in 2024, when 45.85 billion rubles (around $470 million) has been earmarked for the “Patriotic Education of Citizens of the Russian Federation.”
The increased funding comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Education, and the Federal Agency for Youth Affairs to take additional steps to increase work with young people in the “new regions,” a euphemism for the occupied territories.
A presidential decree issued in July ordered the intensification of “work with the youth of the Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions on issues of harmonizing interethnic relations and strengthening the all-Russian civic identity.” It also called for “information work in the student and school environment regarding the explanation of the reasons and objectives of the special military operation.”
Programming note…
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has had ripple effects across Europe. While the alliance is more unified than it has been in decades, there is no shortage of threats to its security, resilience, and cohesion, notably in the Black Sea and on the Eastern Flank. How is Bulgaria addressing these security challenges and countering ongoing threats from Russia?
