Oct 4 Buonasera Mag
Day 224: Kherson, Kharkiv, nukes, 700k, UA grain, RU budget, $625m, Czech crowdfunding, UK defence, Japan, US chips-A&Ps-Cepa, Reznikov, ISW, Linkevicius, Khapaeva, Lucas, Nika
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
224 days of terror: too many. I am looking forward to when that number will be zero.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian forces reportedly liberate more settlements in Kherson, Kharkiv oblasts. Ukrainian troops have recaptured five villages in the north of Kherson Oblast, according to videos posted by Ukrainian soldiers on social media. Russian installed mayors and officials are currently fleeing.
Veremiivka, Kostryka, Veliki Oleksandrivts, Starosillya, Davydiv Brid, and Chereshneve in the north of Kherson province are under the control of the Ukrainian armed forces. Boguslavka and Borivska Andriivka in Kharkiv oblast have been liberated.
US defense secretary: Ukrainian military 'changes battlefield dynamics' in Russia's war. Ukrainian troops are making progress in Kherson Oblast due to their skills and strategic use of weapons supplied by Western countries, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told CNN on Oct. 2.
Russian torture chamber has been found in recently liberated Pisky-Radkivski.
Polish military analyst, Konrad Muzyka, has raised alarms by identifying a train apparently moving through central Russia laden with trucks as belonging to the 12th main directorate of the Russian armed forces, which is involved in the storage, transport, maintenance and issuance of nuclear weapons. The movement of the train does not necessarily mean preparations are being made for nuclear use. He said it could just be more signalling, or it could be training or regular wargaming.
UK Defense Ministry: Putin ‘highly unlikely’ to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said that although Russia had the use of nuclear weapons in its doctrine, Putin is “highly unlikely” to use them in its war with Ukraine, because it would be unacceptable for Moscow's allies India and China, Evening Standard reported on Oct. 3.
President Zelensky has signed a decree formally declaring the prospect of any Ukrainian talks with Putin “impossible”. The decree formalised comments made by Zelensky on Friday after the Russian president proclaimed the four occupied regions of Ukraine were to become part of Russia.
ISW: “The Russian defeat in Kharkiv (region) and Lyman, combined with the Kremlin’s failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively and fairly are fundamentally changing the Russian information space.”
More than 200,000 Russians have been called up for military service since Russia announced a “partial mobilisation” two weeks ago, according to Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu. RIA Novosti reported that Shoigu said Russia is aiming to recruit an additional 300,000 military personnel as part of the initiative.
According to Russian Forbes, some 700k- 1million Russian citizens have left the country since Putin's announcement of mobilisation on 21 September. This includes some 200,000 Russian nationals who crossed to Kazakhstan.
The upper house of Russia’s parliament has voted to approve the incorporation of four occupied Ukrainian regions into Russia, as Moscow sets about formally annexing territory it seized from Kyiv.
AP: Russia stole at least $530 million worth of Ukrainian grain. The AP and PBS used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied Ukrainian ports to the Middle East.
Russian Budget: The discussion of the draft of the federal budget for the next year in the Federation Council revealed another “secret,” by which the Ministry of Finance managed to keep the expenditures and the deficit within the declared limits—it is planned to reduce inter-budgetary transfers to regional budgets by 12.5% in 2023.
Iran said that it does not recognize the so-called "referendums" organized by Russia in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. This was stated by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani, according to IRNA news agency.
$625 million US military aid package expected to include 4 HIMARS. The package, which could be announced as soon as Oct. 4, is expected to include four High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, munitions, mines, and mine-resistant vehicles, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Oct. 3.
Czechs crowdfund over $1 million to buy tank for Ukraine. The crowdfunding campaign was run by the Ukrainian embassy in Prague and raised 33 million Czech crowns ($1.31 million) from 11,288 donors to buy a T-72 Avenger tank that has been modernized, according to the campaign statement.
Italy is preparing its fifth military aid package for Ukraine’s defence. Defence Minister Guerini was audited today by Parliament’s Intelligence Committee on the war in Ukraine. The meeting centred on the fifth decree set to authorise the dispatch of military vehicles and equipment to Ukraine. Future PM Meloni spoke with President Zelensky today and he has invited her to visit Kyiv as soon as possible and had expressed his gratitude for the arms that Italy had sent Ukraine following the Russian invasion.
Hungary: The Hungarian parliament on October 3 began passing reforms to try to appease Brussels' concerns about democratic backsliding and Hungary's rule-of-law record. Orban's ruling Fidesz party is expected to pass a total of 17 changes aimed at monitoring the use of EU funds and making the legislative process more transparent. Orban's government committed to passing the changes to stave off the suspension of EU money at a time when Hungary’s economy is headed into recession and the forint has plunged to record lows.
Prague Meeting: The leaders from all European countries, apart from Belarus and Russia (as well as European microstates), will meet at Prague Castle on October 6 to discuss a raft of issues related to the security situation on the continent, with the war in Ukraine being an obvious backdrop. The meeting is the launch of the European Political Community (EPC) -- an idea first promoted by French President Emmanuel Macron in May. More to come.
The British government said it had imposed a travel ban and an asset freeze on Sergei Yeliseyev as part of its broader sanctions against Russia. The government said Yeliseyev was deputy prime minister of Kaliningrad and was involved in “destabilising Ukraine or undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty or independence of Ukraine”.
Most valuable US chipmaker ceases Russian operations. California-based chipmaker Nvidia Corp. had already suspended its shipments to Russia but had maintained a presence there “to support our employees and their families,” the company said in a statement on Oct. 3.
EU finance ministers agreed today to integrate the EU’s support payments to Ukraine into its 2023 budget to make payments more structured and predictable, European Commission vice president Valdis Dombrovskis said. The EU agreed to support Ukraine with €9bn (£7.85bn) in May, but only made the first disbursement of €1bn in July.
Germany’s Christian Lindner is facing tough questions from his fellow European finance ministers, who met today in Luxembourg and have expressed shock by Germany’s approach to tackling the gas price crisis: Berlin has been blocking an EU gas price cap at the EU level, but at home, it is doling out €200 billion to subsidize gas for industry and consumers alike.
Japan ordered a Russian consul to leave the country by 10 October in retaliation for the expulsion of a Japanese consul in Vladivostok last month, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday.
Putin and Mali’s interim President Assimi Goita have reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening security cooperation. According to a Kremlin readout of a phone call between the two reported by Reuters, Russia will help root out “terrorist groups” in Mali.
Iran is still gripped by anti-government protests. They started two weeks ago, after a 22-year-old woman died in custody of the “morality police,” and have mobilized Iranians fed up with years of repression and economic neglect. The protests have spread to universities and schools, and Iran’s supreme leader blamed foreigners for the unrest yesterday.
Tory Party Conference: Condoms bearing Tory slogans pulled from Conservatives conference “out of respect for the Queen”. Day 3 of the conference and PM Truss can’t seem to pull it together with her party grandees and electorate. Labour is still well-ahead in the polls.
Harding & Davidson, Russia’s Annexed Land Is a Crime Scene- Foreign Policy
In a fresh violation of international law, Russian President Vladimir Putin, announced the annexation of Ukrainian territory on Friday, complete with a celebration in Moscow and a rambling speech. Putin is seeking to bludgeon Ukraine and the West into submission not only because he is desperate to vindicate his grandiose plan for conquering Ukraine but also to avoid any accounting for the war crimes that he and his henchmen have already committed.
Dina Khapaeva, Putin’s New Nuclear Blackmail- Project Syndicate
Observing Putin’s tactics, one cannot help but think of a mugger attempting to intimidate a victim with a knife. Whether or not that knife will be used depends on the victim’s response, the surrounding circumstances (such as if someone else intervenes), and luck. As Ukraine’s supposed champions, Western powers should take note.
Edward Lucas, Dealing with Defeat- CEPA
The much harder question is what comes next. Putin may not survive defeat on the battlefield. But Russia’s kleptocratic, imperialist regime is far more durable than any individual. My big worry is that a post-Putin junta fools the West, offering a “reset” in relations in return for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a resumption of gas supplies. The right answer will be a firm “no”. The only acceptable peace must involve reparations, war-crimes trials, unchallenged NATO membership for Ukraine, and the return of occupied territories. If Ukraine’s leadership wants something different, that is their prerogative. But there should be no Western arm-twisting to accept Russia’s agenda.
