Oct 4: E-Stories
Day587 DTEK Kupiansk Crimea CombatSit nukes visas Putin BehindLines Kherson Serbia MuskTrump FIN-RUcars UN EE ROM US AUS DEN SLO A&P Davis ISW UKDef Nexta Scarr XSoviet Piagnerelli Amanpour YLE Nika
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Soon.
Stories we’re following…
Russia attacked Ukraine with a combination of missiles and shahed drones last night. Out of 31 drones, 29 were shot down. Additionally one Iskander-M was launched from Crimea and was also shot down.
Russia shelled 5 communities along the Sumy Oblast border on Oct. 2, firing 13 times throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on Telegram. 50 explosions were recorded.
DTEK: Russian strikes damage warehouses in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces attacked warehouses of Ukraine's largest private energy company DTEK in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Oct. 2, causing damage to cables, transformers, and other electrical equipment, the company said on the Telegram messaging app.
Russian air strike on Kupiansk injures 2. Russian forces used a guided aerial bomb to carry out the attack, according to preliminary data cited by prosecutors. Several residential buildings and civilian cars were damaged, adds the report.
Russian attacks kill 5, injure 15 over past day. Russian forces targeted Donetsk Oblast over the past day, killing three people and injuring five, the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration said.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russia allegedly removed Bakhmut General due to poor performance. Russian milbloggers are speculating that the Russian Ministry of Defense removed Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy from his post commanding the Bakhmut direction due to poor performance south of the city, near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its daily assessment on Oct. 2.
A freight train collided with a Strela-10 air defense complex near Yenakiieve last night. Three Russian servicemen were killed and two were wounded. The locomotive and railway tracks were damaged. The air defense complex is likely also damaged.
"Over the past day, on the left bank of the Dnipro, our military destroyed 4 large-caliber guns of the Russians," spokeswoman of the southern command Natalya Humenyuk said on national television.
One of Ukraine’s top generals said that his forces were advancing in the south. “In the Tavria sector, there has been an advance by the defence forces,” General Oleksander Tarnavskyi said in a post on Telegram.
Minister: Units supported by 'Army of Drones' hit record number of Russian artillery over last week. Ukrainian drone units supported by the "Army of Drones" initiative destroyed or damaged 69 towed artillery pieces and 17 self-propelled howitzers from Sept. 25 to Oct. 2, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported.
The Battle for Crimea: “We are witnessing the beginning of the battle for Crimea. We need to give Ukraine the help it needs to bring this war to an end. This war can be won," said former British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.
ISW: Russian forces conducted a small-scale Shahed-131/136 drone strike on Ukraine on the night of October 1-2 after Russian forces conducted a record number of drone strikes targeting Ukrainian grain and port infrastructure in September 2023.
"Lithuania and Ukraine agreed on a corridor for grain transit from Ukraine to Baltic ports. This should reduce pressure on the Ukrainian border and increase supplies to Africa and beyond," Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis said.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia’s military has no plans for an additional mobilisation of men to fight in Ukraine as the army has enough servicemen, defence minister Sergei Shoigu was quoted as saying by state news agency RIA. “In the general staff, there are no plans for an additional mobilisation,” Shoigu was quoted as saying by RIA.
Reuters—Storm-Z—the Russian Armed Forces punishment troops: Drunk recruits. Insubordinate soldiers. Convicts. They're among hundreds of military and civilian offenders who've been pressed into Russian penal units known as "Storm-Z" squads and sent to the frontlines in Ukraine this year, according to 13 people with knowledge of the matter, including five fighters in the units.
Russia may be preparing to test the Burevestnik nuclear-powered intercontinental cruise missile — or might have already done so, writes The New York Times, referencing Planet Labs’ satellite imagery. Journalists noticed that satellite images taken on September 20 showed equipment on a launchpad on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, including a truck with a trailer that, according to The New York Times, matches the size of the missile.
Putin may announce his nomination for a new presidential term at the opening of the Russia exhibition and forum in early November, Kommersant writes , citing sources close to the presidential administration. “This will be the core event of the entire campaign,” says one source about the exhibition. It will be held at the VDNKh site from November 4, 2023 to April 12, 2024 and will “overlap” the presidential campaign in terms of timing. The Kremlin has instructed regional administrations to compile lists of potential proxies for the “government candidate” in the 2024 presidential elections, sources in three regions told RBC.
Monique: Was there any doubt? I’ve been listening to a narrative coming out of the UK that Putin would not seek another term and that the Russian security services and elite were going to be asking him to step aside and they would present another candidate. I chalk it up to conflicting information being disseminated to confuse us.
The government will increase the size of the “voluntary” contribution that foreign companies must transfer to the budget when leaving Russia. Instead of the current rate of 10% of the total market value of assets, companies will now have to pay 15%, Ivan Chebeskov, director of the financial policy department of the Ministry of Finance, told Izvestia.
Russian authorities have proposed sharply increasing the cost of visas for citizens of the EU, Denmark, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Instead of the current 35–70 euros (about $37–73), depending on the urgency and frequency, they will rise to $50–300, RBC writes , citing a bill from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which was supported by a government commission.
Monique: I’ve included this piece of news because in September 2022, EuroFile published a thread by Madi Kapparov, who spelled out that the crime rate in Russia would increase when the soldiers from the war went home. This is not an isolated case: Russian media is filled with stories of Wagnerites and other soldiers coming home and committing murder.
Behind the Lines
Invaders set to use Ukrainian men from occupied areas as human shield for own troops - rights activist. The Russians will use the male population of temporarily occupied territories in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as a human shield for the Russian troops, therefore local are advised to seek ways to flee before they are drafted for service with the invasion army.
Russian officials appointed criminals from Russia and Ukraine to head up government and security positions in occupied areas, reports Verstka. They had been fired or arrested for pedophilia, violence, corruption, and so on, but Russia gave them a “second chance” so they could commit more crimes and profit from their positions.
"Russia keeps various types of military equipment on the territory of Belarus, so the risk of attacks on Ukraine remains," Air Force spokesman Yuryi Ignat said. "Today, our military groups are also deployed on our northern borders. Air defense, various types of barricades and landmines are being strengthened there. You can expect anything."
Monique: In a certain way, it would be beneficial to Ukraine if Belarus were to enter the war so it could take out the launching areas used by the Russians in various areas in Belarus.
Ukraine’s eastern metropolis of Kharkiv will build the country’s first fully underground school to shield pupils from Russia’s frequent bomb and missile attacks, the city’s mayor has said.
“Such a shelter will enable thousands of Kharkiv children to continue their safe face-to-face education even during missile threats,” Mayor Ihor Terekhov wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
Ukraine accused Elon Musk of encouraging Russian propaganda after the billionaire owner of X, posted a meme of Zelenskyy with the caption, “When it’s been five minutes and you haven’t asked for a billion dollars in aid.” “Any silence or irony towards Ukraine today is a direct encouragement of Russian propaganda that justifies mass violence and destruction,” presidential aide Mykhaylo Podolyak answered on the same platform.
Monique: It’s clear now that Musk’s purchase of Twitter was a operation to turn it into a propaganda and information warfare weapon, aimed at destabilising Western liberal democracy. For whom is anyone’s guess. If anyone is skeptical, please consider that advertising uses many of the same tactics used in the dissemination of propaganda and information warfare. We seem to accept this but not when it comes to the same tactics and behaviour on social media. Julia Davis provides the video of the reaction to Musk’s weekend meme spree. They’re delighted:
Allied Support
Kuleba: EU reaches consensus on Ukraine's membership bid. The European Union has reached a consensus regarding Ukraine's membership in the bloc, which is "only a matter of time," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Oct. 2, as reported by European Pravda.
The European Parliament approved the revision of the EU budget for 2021-2027, which includes provisions on the creation of a special Ukrainian fund of €50 billion. The decision was approved with 393 votes in favor, 136 against and 92 abstentions.
Ukraine receives first set of refurbished Leopard tanks from Poland, the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ) announced on Twitter on Oct. 2.
Romania vows support for Ukraine's EU aspirations, grain transit. "Romania and some of the other (EU) members with the longest borders with Ukraine understand well the consequences of the war in Ukraine," Romania's top diplomat, Luminita Odobescu, said in Kyiv ahead of the meeting of the EU's foreign ministers.
Estonia: Ukraine’s MoD Rustem Umerov held a meeting with Estonian MoD Hanno Pevkur. They discussed the IT coalition, the issue of training Ukrainian military personnel by Estonian instructors, their treatment and rehabilitation on the territory of Estonia and prospects for military cooperation were raised. Umerov said that Estonia announced the transfer of a Role 2 mobile field hospital to Ukraine. This is already the 4th one transferred by the Estonian Defense Investment Center in cooperation with partners.
The Australian company Electro Optic Systems is sending 'drone killer' system called Slinger to Ukraine. Slinger's price tag is less than $1.55 million per system. It aims to take down drones at a cost of between $155 and $1,550 per engagement.
AP: Pentagon running out of money for Ukraine. Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord warned the U.S. Congress that diminishing funds for Ukraine could cause delays in critical weapons and supply shipments, the Associated Press reported on Oct. 2. The US has $5.2 billion remaining (under PDA) for aid to Ukraine. This is estimated to be enough for roughly 6 months of aid, reports WSJ.
FT: The EU Commission is ready to unfreeze €13 billion in funding to Hungary to find support for Ukraine. Hungarian PM Orban previously stated that Ukraine would not receive a penny until it complies with Budapest’s demands. (sleazeball!)
The US and Denmark will help Ukraine reduce the vulnerability and strengthen the resilience of critical infrastructure to cyber threats through the USAID project "Cyber security of critical infrastructure of Ukraine". Denmark will invest $2.8 million.
Slovakia's 'kingmaker' party politician says Ukraine should give up territory for peace. Ukraine will likely have to give up some of the territory occupied by Russia since 2014 to achieve peace, Denisa Saková, deputy head of Slovak Hlas (Voice) party, told Czech Television on Oct. 1.
Borrell also dismissed the idea – floated by Roberta Metsola, the president of the European parliament, and academics recently – that Kyiv might join the EU in stages, with access to the single market first, followed by political integration. “Membership is membership,” Borrell said. There could be no talk of half, or 25% membership, he said, adding: “[It’s] the strongest security commitment we can give to Ukraine.”
Ukraine adds Chinese oil, gas companies to 'international sponsors of war' list. Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) added the three largest Chinese oil and gas companies to its "international sponsors of war" list, the agency's press service announced on Oct.
Ilario Piagnerelli: In Naples, the flags of the self-proclaimed popular republics of Donetsk and Lugansk wave on the 99 Posse stage. It is the “People's Recovery” initiative. Sponsored by the National Association of Partisans of Naples, it fights against "the forces that occupy the country, NATO, the EU, the Vatican, the Zionists".
Monique: Naples is a hot bed of Russian information operations. We’re investigating.
Around the World
CNN: Rep. Matt Gaetz on Monday moved ahead in his attempt to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy from the top House leadership post, offering a motion to vacate the chair on the House floor – a rare procedural move that can be used to force a vote to remove the speaker. A floor vote to oust McCarthy would require a majority vote to succeed.
WaPo: Trump’s fraud trial began in NYC. The former president appeared in court for his civil trial in a $250 million lawsuit alleging rampant fraud at his business properties in the state. The trial could last for nearly three months. Trump doesn’t face prison time in this case, but he could lose his New York properties — including Trump Tower.
The United States is preparing to tighten the ban on the export of chips and means for their production to China from the beginning of October. We are talking about limiting access to more advanced means for the production of semiconductors, as well as closing some loopholes in export restrictions on artificial intelligence chips, Reuters reports , citing information from the White House.
The Parliament of Armenia has ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. The ratification of the Rome Statute could have implications for Armenia’s foreign relations, particularly with Russia. The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in March. This would mean that Putin would not be allowed into the country as Armenian forces would be required to detain him.
Christiane Amanpour: In my exclusive interview, I ask Serbian President Vucic if he has now pulled back “artillery, tanks and mechanized infantry” after being accused by the US of an “unprecedented” troop buildup on its border with Kosovo.
Finnish media tracked the route of deliveries of luxury cars to Russia, bypassing sanctions—YLE
The investigation of Svenska Yle journalists begins at the Finnish port and leads thousands of kilometers deep into Russia.
It turns out that Finland is an important transit country in international car smuggling. The documentary material is available in Finnish in the MOT program and in Swedish in the Spotlight program. We receive a tip that cars are being loaded onto ships in Germany, transported to Finland, and then smuggled into Russia.
The export of some goods to Russia is still allowed. Most of them pass through Finnish ports. We suspect that new passenger cars are also being transported to Russia through the port of Kotka, although this is prohibited.
New luxury cars are still in demand in Russia. Despite Western sanctions, Russians want to spend money as before.
Most of the new cars come to Russia from Kazakhstan and Armenia. These countries did not impose sanctions against the Russian Federation.
For Ukraine, sanctions play an important role. “Sanctions can isolate Russia and reduce its ability to finance war and produce weapons,” says Ukrainian Ambassador to Finland Olga Dibrova.
We monitor sanctions evasion using transmitters
We want to test whether car sellers violate EU sanctions by supplying new cars through Finland to Russia. We decide to attach small radio beacons to new passenger cars crossing the Russian border. At Vaalimaa we follow a car transporter as it heads towards the Russian border.
The car transporter is transporting a dark blue BMW X3 and a white Lexus RX350. Perhaps there is another car there. We manage to bug two cars. Now we can monitor their movements using a mobile application.
The number of goods crossing the Russian border has dropped sharply since the introduction of EU sanctions. Therefore, customs have more time for inspections. However, not all trucks and containers are inspected.
We have an international network that provides information about companies in sending and receiving countries. But we cannot inspect every cargo, because then traffic and trade stops, explains the head of the customs control department, Sami Rakshit.
Cars are transported 5,000 kilometers deep into Russia
Vehicles on which we have installed radio beacons can officially travel to Central Asia. Transporting cars through Russian territory, for example, to Kazakhstan, is legal, but leaving them in Russia is prohibited.
However, customs came across cases where the truck driver had two different customs documents.
“We were shown a document that stated that the cargo was heading to Kazakhstan, but in the car there was another document for Russian customs. From this document it followed that the cargo was being sent to Russia.
The day after the transmitters are installed, cars cross the Russian border in Vaalimaa.
First, the cars are sent to St. Petersburg. There is a forwarding company in this area that helps its clients clear customs cargo.
A few days later the cars continue their journey to Moscow. The place looks like a collection point for new cars. Our contact person cannot find vehicles with transmitters.
A few weeks later, a white Lexus appears at a car dealership on Pushkin Street in Tomsk. The price of the car is about 100,000 euros.
Using the transmitter, we see that a blue BMW is moving around Tomsk. We conclude that it was sold and the new owner took the car into operation.
Who sold cars to Tomsk and is doing business in transporting cars 5,000 kilometers deep into Russia?
Finnish authorities have difficulty catching companies illegally exporting goods to Russia.
The chain of companies involved in this process can be long, but transport firms play a key role. They are the ones who make smuggling into Russia possible.
Several transport companies with Russian capital are registered in Finland and travel from Finnish ports to the Vaalimaa border station. The companies also attracted attention in the transport industry.
– From the outside it seems that their activity has increased sharply. Much more than Finnish companies, says Harri Sandell . He is an entrepreneur and board member of the transport industry association SKAL.
Our check shows that at least three Russian transport companies are doing very well. Their trade turnover and profitability increased sharply after the introduction of EU sanctions against Russia.
None of the Russian transport companies wanted to give interviews to talk about their business and explain the reason for the increase in profitability.
Lexus crosses the Atlantic and heads to Siberia via Finland
The white Lexus we were following went on sale on a Russian car website in February of this year. The car was brand new then, with only 27 kilometers on the clock. The ad photos were taken in Canada.
The image of the license plate helps to find the previous owner of the car.
The first owner of the car in Canada is a private individual with a name similar to Russian. A few days after purchasing the car, he sold it to Canadian export company Deluxauto Incorporated.
A Canadian export company denies selling cars to Russia, and a Tomsk car dealer confirms that the white Lexus was brought from Canada.
Canada and the United States have imposed the same sanctions against Russia as the EU, so the export of new cars from these countries to Russia is also prohibited.
Foreign Minister Valtonen: It should not be possible
Our experiment using transmitters showed that Finland is a transit country for the export of luxury cars to Russia.
