Oct 4- Why Elon is Wrong
Melnyk-Zelenksy-a thread by Alexander Khara-Kallas-Lucas
Elon should stick to batteries
Yesterday, in the early evening, Elon Musk expressed his view on a ‘peace’ plan between Russia and Ukraine. Musk should stick to what he knows best, which isn’t history or geo-politics.
Thunder-struck, Ukrainian and supporters quickly criticised ‘Battery Boy’ (bless Dan Kaszeta), pointing out that these ‘suggestions’ perfectly mirrored Russian talking points.
Doubling down on his position, Elon continued with these tweets displaying complete ignorance of the history of the people of Donbas and Crimea, as well as amplifying the Kremlin’s nuclear threats.
It’s still unclear exactly what Elon’s endgame was: Is he really a closet pro-Kremlin supporter, or drank the cool-aid? Was he trying to take attention away from the great advances by the Ukrainian armed forces in Kherson and Kharkiv yesterday?
RT certainly picked up on the tweet and made the most of it.
Perhaps there’s more to this than meets the eye. Over the past week, in the Russian infosphere, state propagandists are beginning to lay the ground for a change in narrative. We’ve seen milbloggers admit to Russian defeat on the ground, levelling harsh criticism, and openly talking about the debacle of the Russian forces.
Or was he simply trying to grab attention? Through the use of bots, Musk games the social media feeds to increase his visibility and those of his products. We’ll know in time.
I must admit that I had tons of fun reading all the responses- by friends and well-known experts and pundits. I’ve posted three here.
Hot-take no 1…
I’m personally with this one. Andrij Melnyk is former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany and an international lawyer.
And…I thought this one was right on cue.
Masterclass…
But President Zelensky stepped in with perhaps the best take down in twitter history.
Setting the tweet war aside, Alexander Khara’s thread explains why Musk’s position is fundamentally wrong. Alexander will be joining us tomorrow on EuroFile@6, and we’ll certainly ask him to expand on his points.
Who is Alexander Khara
Alexander Khara is a foreign policy and security expert, Deputy Chair of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, Donetsk State Academy, Public Administration (1998), Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2000), and Royal College of Defense Studies, UK (2010).
He has held a number of positions in the central office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, including in regional and II IV Territorial Department (2000-2002, 2005-2006.) and at the Embassy of Ukraine in Canada (2002-2005). In 2006-2008. - State Expert, and in 2008-2011 he was Deputy Head of the Department of External National Security of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine as well as a consultant to a Member of Parliament of Ukraine.
13 points why Elon Musk is wrong:
1. Impunity. You can’t redo smth hasn’t happened. Shame vote of 2014 was a violation of Ukrainian and Russian Constitutions and laws, & int law (UN Charter, OSCE Helsinki Act...). It was intl/mil op. Ignoring it means injustice and setting a dangerous precedent.
2. Impossible to do. Russia deported or pushed out Ukrainian citizens while bringing Russian ones in. For eight years, Crimeans have been heavily brainwashed.
3. Injustice. According to int law and Ukrainian leg, only 3 indigenous peoples (Crimean Tatars, Crimean Karaites, and Krymchaks) have the right to self-determination. Therefore "redo elections" would secure impunity and injustice & greenlight further annexations across the globe.
4. Historically wrong (1). Crimea was a part of Ukraine for twice longer (60 years, 1954-2014) as the Russian Federation (29 years, 1922-1941, 1944-1954). From 1941-1944 the Peninsula was occupied by Nazi Germany.
5. Historically wrong (2). During the Rus Empire (1796 till 1917), the ethnic composition of Crimea was: Ukrainians (42.2%), Russians (27.9%), Crimean Tatars (13%), Germans (5.4%), and Greeks (1.3%). In imperial and then Soviet times, there was a forceful movement of people.
6. Historically wrong (3.1). More than Russians and Ukrainians, Crimea was owned by Crimean Tatars (1441-1783). But even more than Crimean Tatars, Ukrainians, and Russians combined, Crimea was owned by Greeks who settled there in 5 BC.
7. Historically wrong (3.2). Crimean Tatars and Greeks are brutally suppressed by Russian neocolonial and genocidal policies in Crimea and the Russian-occupied Donetsk. Mariupol, Ukrainian Greeks' unofficial capital, was leveled, and it's impossible to estimate the human cost of the seizure.
8. Historically wrong (4). Decisions by Khrushchev, the Central Committee, and the gov were legitimate and legal. Given its heavy dependence on Ukrainian infrastructure, logistics, and labor, USSR's Parl voted for the transfer of Crimea. It was not a decision of a single man.
9. Historically wrong (5). The Russians weren’t able to rebuild Crimea after the devastating war & depopulation by the forceful deportation of the Crimean Tatars, Greeks, & other native peoples (1944-1949). What we see now in Crimea has been built by the Ukrainians with their money & resources.
10. Neutrality is wrong (1). Ukraine was a non-block country in 2014, and it didn't save it from the illegal annexation of Crimea and Russian military aggression in Donbas. In fact, Russia tried to annex Crimea back in 1993-1994 when Ukraine was not even thinking of becoming a NATO member.
11. Neutrality isn’t an option (2). 83% of Ukrainians are for membership in NATO. So, after the illegal annexations, genocidal war, and destruction that Russia brought to the neighbor, Ukraine can't be secure and at peace without being a member of NATO and the EU.
12. Strategically wrong (1). The illegal annexation of Crimea allowed Russia to interfere in the Syrian conflict, propping up the murderous Bashar al-Assad regime. Crimea allows to threaten all Black Sea nations and denies Freedom of Navigation, causing starvation across the globe.
13. Strategically wrong (2). Russian BS Fleet might hit any European country, inc the UK, with Kalibr missiles off the coast of Crimea. They might carry a nuclear warhead. Moreover, Russia voiced its intentions to deploy nuclear arms there, & it's highly likely has already been deployed.
Dealing with a terrorist…
Khara: It’s a much sober advise than to appease a criminal, isn’t it Elon Musk?
Edward Lucas, Dealing with Defeat- CEPA
The much harder question is what comes next. Putin may not survive defeat on the battlefield. But Russia’s kleptocratic, imperialist regime is far more durable than any individual. My big worry is that a post-Putin junta fools the West, offering a “reset” in relations in return for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a resumption of gas supplies. The right answer will be a firm “no”. The only acceptable peace must involve reparations, war-crimes trials, unchallenged NATO membership for Ukraine, and the return of occupied territories. If Ukraine’s leadership wants something different, that is their prerogative. But there should be no Western arm-twisting to accept Russia’s agenda.