Oct 5: E-Stories
Day588 ZhytomyrBridgeEE 2014justice UADroneBarrage Donetsk Krasnoyarsk ROM Iran Ovsyannikova BurgerKing GUR US grain HUnEU Grib ANPI A&P Zapo ISW UKDef Nichols UADef Kirby Kolga Zubrin Harding IWP
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Russia has brought death and destruction to Ukraine, so it’s good to be able to post something positive.
Marcus Tsahkna: “The second reconstruction project in Ukraine by Estonia. Today I was very honored to open the Malyn bridge in Zhytomyr.”
Stories we’re following…
Justice: The investigation into the shooting of demonstrators on Independence Square in Kyiv on February 18-20, 2014 has been completed. Indictments against former and fugutive President Viktor Yanukovych and 9 ex-officials have been sent to the court. They are held responsible for mass casualties among participants and property damage.
Zarichne village in the Zaporizhzhia region. The building in the video was a library before the large-scale invasion by the Russians. Now it is in ruins.
Russia shells 8 communities in Sumy Oblast. Explosions occurred in the communities of Khotin, Mykolaivka, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Bilopillia, Yunakivka, Shalyhyne, and Esman. No casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure were reported.
The Ukrainian army has regained the village of Novoprokopivka, Zaporizhzhia direction. They’s marching towards Tokmak.
Combat Situation Update
31 drones shot down over Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk overnight, says Russian Ministry of Defence. Dozens of Ukrainian drones attacked three Russian regions overnight, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence, which claimed to have shot down 31 unmanned aircraft.
ISW: Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a series of counterattacks and marginally advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on Oct 2 & 3. Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the area but did not advance on Oct 3.
Russian MoD Shoigu celebrated an odd group of Russian armed formations operating in the western Zaporizhia Oblast direction during a conference call with Russian military leadership. Shoigu’s choice of units could indicate he seeks to highlight Russian commanders who continue to follow Russian military leadership’s orders for relentless counterattacks.
A fire broke out at the Rusal-owned Krasnoyarsk Aluminium Smelter early on Wednesday, Russia’s TASS state news agency reports, citing local emergency ministry officials. “At 08.57am (1.57sm GMT) a fire was reported on the territory of the KrAZ (Krasnoyarsk Aluminium Smelter),” the agency cited the officials as saying. “A transformer caught fire on an area of 50 square metres (538 square feet).”
NATO member Romania reported possible violations of its airspace during overnight drone attacks by Russia on infrastructure in neighbouring Ukraine. “Following the detection of groups of drones heading towards Ukrainian territory near the Romanian border,” residents in the Tulcea and Galati municipalities were alerted, the defence ministry said in a statement on Saturday. “The radar surveillance system … indicated possible unauthorised entry into national airspace.”
Russia claims Ukrainian Neptune missile destroyed over occupied Crimea. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed its forces shot down a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile near the Crimean coast late on Oct. 3. Kyiv hasn’t commented on the allegation.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russian finance minister: Ukraine war is Moscow’s main budget priority. The main priority for Russia’s budget for the next three years is strengthening the country’s military and “supporting participants” of its war against Ukraine, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Oct. 3, as cited by Forbes Russia.
Russia uses Iranian Grad missiles in Ukraine - Bild. The Russian Ministry of Defense published a short video from Ukraine, which shows Iranian 122-mm HE-FRAG missiles of the Arash family. Footage of these missiles has already appeared on social networks, but now the Russian Ministry of Defense has essentially confirmed their use. Let us note that just two weeks ago in New York, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi denied that Tehran was supplying Moscow with weapons.
Russia’s Federal Security Service wants to expand the types of personal data “information dissemination organizers” are required to store and share with law enforcement. The agency is eyeballing geolocation and e-payment records. In July 2023, Prime Minister Mikhail Mushustin granted the FSB 24-hour remote access to all taxi service information systems and databases.
A Russian court has sentenced Marina Ovsyannikova, who burst into a news broadcast with a placard that read “Stop the war” and “They’re lying to you”, to 8.5 years in jail in absentia on Wednesday. Ovsyannikova was found guilty of “spreading knowingly false information about the Russian armed forces”, according to a statement posted by the court on Telegram. Ovsyannikova, 45, fled Russia with her daughter for an unspecified European country a year ago after escaping from house arrest, according to her lawyer, saying she had no case to answer.
Trauma centers in Russian regions are forced to reduce operating hours due to a shortage of doctors. In Yekaterinburg, several medical care points that should operate around the clock began to close in the afternoon and introduced non-working days, writes the local portal E1.ru. One of the emergency centers, Central City Hospital No. 2, announced a change in work schedule from October 1 on its website. “The patients at the reception were told that there was no one to work, there were only two doctors,” said his visitor.
The government instructed Rosobrnadzor to collect personal data of students in schools, colleges and universities for transfer to the Unified Military Registry. The resolution on expanding the powers of the department was signed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, it was published on the official legal information portal.
BBC: Burger King still 'open as usual' in Russia. Burger King "remains open as usual in Russia," despite the U.S. fast food chain claiming at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that it would exit the country, the BBC reported on Oct. 3.
Behind the Lines
Ukraine’s defence intelligence posted a video of Ukrainian special forces landing in Russian-occupied Crimea. "Special forces of the Stugna and Brotherhood batallions landed on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula and inflicted fire damage to the occupiers," the GUR comments. At the end of the video…wait for it.
Invaders building defense lines in Crimea – partisans. After the successful attacks by Ukrainian forces on military facilities in the temporarily occupied Crimea, the Russians are building defense lines. The structures were spotted near Feodosia town and the village of Batalne.
Large-scale protests against the transfer of weapons to Ukraine took place today in the center of Berlin. Almost 30 thousand people took to the streets. Among them are supporters of the Alternative for Germany party and the Querdenker movement and those who are already tired of inflation, the current policy of the German state.
Austria hopes that Ukraine and Russia will sit down at the negotiating table, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Austria, Alexander Schallenberg said.
"Peace is always made at the negotiating table, never on the battlefield," he emphasized.
MFA condemns transfer of political prisoners Dzhelyal, Akhtemovs from Crimea. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine condemns the transfer of political prisoners Nariman Dzhelyal, Asan Akhtemov and Aziz Akhtemov from Crimea. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also calls on the international community and partners of Ukraine, including within the framework of the International Crimea Platform, to continue to put pressure on Russia to immediately release all Ukrainian citizens illegally imprisoned by the Russian occupation administration in Crimea, and to impose new sanctions on officials involved in the persecution of Ukrainian citizens.
In the 2010s, Marat Khusnullin completely rebuilt Moscow. Now he is in charge of the “restoration” of annexed Ukrainian territories. Meduza tells how an official from Tatarstan became “one of Putin’s favorite subordinates.”
“But this is already part of another campaign. Actually, the presidential one, which is gradually accelerating,” the source added. This interlocutor named Marat Khusnullin among the “key figures” in Putin’s re-election process, scheduled for the spring of 2024.
According to the Kremlin’s plan, the official should become one of the main “event providers” before voting day. Meduza has already written that the presidential administration plans to turn the campaign into “a series of holidays” dedicated to “the achievements of Putin’s Russia.” Some of these events will be the opening of infrastructure facilities - for example, new highways. [continue]
We need love…brought to you from Defence of Ukraine
Allied Support
John Kirby: There is no indication that there has been any widespread corruption or misuse of U.S. resources in Ukraine.
Why is this important? Most Americans are led to believe that the its government is spending TONS of money on foreign aid. The reality is quite different as highlighted in the quote below written by Tom Nichols. The Biden administration has had to justify and defend its allotments to Ukraine, mainly because the Trump GOP faction is instrumentalising aid to Ukraine for its election campaign.
The allotment of foreign aid is a complicated issue, and many factors are taken into consideration from the get go: what will it be used for, and who does it benefit in the end? If we’re talking about the building of a new bridge, for example, does it really benefit the local population or is it a vanity project for the government in power? How will the local population maintain it once it has been built? Does the state have a sufficient tax structure to maintain it or will it be a burden on the local population?
In the case of Ukraine, it is standing between Russian imperialist designs and NATO. Ukrainian defence isn’t a vanity project: the Ukrainian population is literally fighting for its existence and its sovereign state. They are the bulwark against the Western liberal democratic world and athoritarian-revisionist Russia. I’d like to ask the Trump GOP why they haven’t targeted other programmes that benefit from foreign aid? Why are they targeting NATO?
Bloomberg: US military 'ready to deliver' cluster-armed ATACMS. The U.S. military is ready to send Ukraine some of its long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) armed with cluster munitions once U.S. President Joe Biden approves the transfer, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 3, citing the U.S. military's chief weapons buyer.
Biden, world leaders coordinate military support for Ukraine. The participants discussed strategies for supplying the Ukrainian military with ammunition and weapons, bolstering Ukraine's air defenses, and fortifying energy infrastracture ahead of the winter months.
Ukraine’s navy said on Wednesday that 12 more vessels were ready to enter a Black Sea shipping corridor on their way towards Ukrainian ports, and that 10 other vessels were ready to depart from the country’s ports. Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk made his remarks as Ukraine tries to defy a de facto Russian blockade on Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea after Moscow pulled out of a deal in July that had allowed Kyiv to safely export grain.
The head of NATO's military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, spoke about NATO actions in the event of a major conflict with Russia. "300,000 military personnel is the number that should be enough in the event of a major conflict with Russia," he said.
Czech president: Europe must reduce defense reliance on US. European countries should reduce reliance on the U.S. and develop their own defense capabilities, Czech President Petr Pavel said on Oct. 3, Politico reported.
"The dominant role of NATO as a security provider must no longer mean that Europe neglects its defense obligations," Pavel said at the College of Europe in Bruges.
Bloomberg: Hungary wants to cut EU funding to Ukraine in half. The proposal adds weight to fears that international support for Ukraine could be waning following U.S. lawmakers' decision to remove aid for Ukraine from a government spending bill passed on Sept. 30. It is lobbying to unblock 13 billion euro for itself and even if the EU unblocks the cash for Hungary, Orbán wants to maintain his veto over the aid for Ukraine, by splitting the package in half and forcing a second vote in 2025. (This is crazy.)
EU accession for Ukraine may take a few years—it is reported that Ukraine may joing the EU by 2023. If Ukraine does join the EU, Kyiv would be entitled to about €186 billion over seven years, according to internal estimates of the bloc’s common budget, which would turn “many” member countries into net payers for the first time, the FT reports this morning.
McCarthy ousting fallout: The US House of Representatives will not be able to pass new laws until a new speaker is elected. Which means, aid to Ukraine will remain without consideration yet. Ambassador of Ukraine to the US Oksana Markarova explained that the voting itself will stop, but other work will continue, in particular in the committees. The House of Representatives is scheduled to return to work no earlier than next Tuesday, with discussions on possible nominees continuing until then.
Around the World
Politico: Top officials from the U.S. and the EU met with their Russian counterparts for undisclosed emergency talks in Turkey designed to resolve the standoff over Nagorno-Karabakh, just days before Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to seize the breakaway territory from ethnic Armenian control.
Trudeau Rejects Retaliation As India Moves to Expel Canadian Diplomats. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada said on Tuesday that his country was in talks with India over its latest demand that dozens of Canadian diplomats leave within a week.
Moldovan Supreme Court rejects banning of the Shor Party—allowed to run in local elections. In order to address this issue, the Moldovan parliament is set to approve amendments to the election code that will ban members of the pro-Russian Shor party from participating in elections, the parliament's speaker Igor Grosu said on Oct. 4. Grosu said that the new amendments would "fill the gap" in the law that currently allows the members of the still-banned party to be elected.
The judge in Donald Trump's civil fraud case ordered him not to publicly comment on court staff after the former president made a disparaging remark on social media. Mr. Trump had posted a message targeting the judge's clerk on Truth Social, his social media platform.
Theresa Fallon: ‘De-risking’ with German characteristics actually means dramatically increased German investment in China, which exceeds 2019 level. After energetic efforts by Biden administration to get transatlantic cooperation on this, Beijing has sweetened the money pot as it strives to drive a wedge in transatlantic relations.
For the first time ever, the U.S., U.K. and EU will hold major elections in the same calendar year in 2024. Dozens of other countries, including India and potentially Ukraine, are also expected to hold votes. But, Mark Scott writes, never before has the integrity of democracy been in so much danger, thanks to the transformation of political campaigning in recent years into a war waged largely online.
Robert Zubrin, The Perilous Rise of the Putin Republicans
“WE IN THIS COUNTRY . . . are . . . the watchmen on the walls of world freedom.” So President John F. Kennedy would have said at the Dallas Trade Mart on November 22, 1963, had he not been shot down that day by Lee Harvey Oswald, an ex-Marine who had defected to the Soviet Union.
In arguing for the defense of the free world, Kennedy represented a long tradition in U.S. foreign policy. In 1917, Woodrow Wilson made the case for bringing the United States into the war in Europe by insisting that “the world must be safe for democracy.” In the dark days of 1940, Franklin Roosevelt declared that, rather than deserting the British then bravely defending freedom’s walls, the United States should become the “arsenal of democracy.”
In the decades of Cold War after Kennedy’s death, America persisted in holding the line. However imperfectly, however incompletely, presidents of both parties sought to stand with freedom and democracy—often in the face of considerable uncertainty and having to overcome opposition from domestic political forces. As a result of this sustained resolve, not only were the democracies of Western Europe protected from Communist domination, but the captive nations of Eastern Europe were freed. The world is a safer, more peaceful, and freer place because of this principled determination to protect freedom. [continue]
The National Association of Italian Partisans to participate in pro-Russian rally
The National Association of Italian Partisans (ANPI) will be participating in a rally on October 7 that is branded as a demostration for ‘peace’. It also magically coincides with Putin’s birthday celebrations.
This is a kick in the stomach to all the partisans who had fought the Second World War against the Nazi Germany and for the values of freedom, sovereignty, and justice. They have forgotten what it means to live under totalitarian rule, and have embraced, instead, the Russian world of Putin and his henchmen.
It’s not the first time. They recently endorsed a conference on "Stalin and the rebirth of the communist movement", where a volume of the "Works" of the Soviet dictator, one of the worst criminals in history and responsible for the Holodomor (the Ukrainian genocide) was presented.
At the 99 Posse concert in Naples in the evening, while the group sang an "anti-war" song, other members on stage unfurled the flags of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk: the two puppet states created by Putin to wage war on Ukraine and now annexed by Russia. Watching from the audience were the president of the VI Municipality Sandro Fucito (Italian Left), the president of the VIII Municipality Nicola Nardella and the Hon. Dario Carotenuto (M5s) and the president of the Anpi of Naples Ciro Raia.
It is impossible that ANPI did not know who the CARC are (organisers of the conference and concert), a communist and pro-Putin party, since last April 25th members of the organisation attacked the secretary of the Democratic Party Enrico Letta and chased him away from the procession in which the president of the ANPI Gianfranco Pagliarulo was also present.
ANPI consciously supports the initiatives of Stalinist and pro-invasion movements, and its spokepeople have expressed this support in numerous TV interviews, political talk shows, and in the media. As Luciano Capone, an Italian journalist, has said: members of ANPI shouldn’t be shocked or offended when members of the press or public call them out on siding with a murderous regime and supporting the genocide of Ukrainians and the destruction of their state.
What remains to be investigated is if the association receives funding or direction from the Russian embassy in Via Gaeta in Rome.
Luke Harding, ‘Hearing Russian brings me pain’: how war has changed Ukrainian literature
Volodymyr Rafeyenko is a distinguished Ukrainian novelist. Ten years ago he wrote and published entirely in Russian. Born in Russian-speaking Donetsk, in the east of the country, he won literary awards for his work, including the prestigious Russian prize, given in Moscow.
In July 2014, Rafeyenko was forced to flee his home city after the Kremlin staged a covert takeover. He recalled standing in Donetsk’s central boulevard – named after the Russian poet Alexander Pushkin – as soldiers rolled in. “I saw a military column arrive. I understood that with my beliefs it was time to leave,” Rafeyenko said.
Vladimir Putin said he annexed Crimea and much of the Donbas region to “save” its Russophone population. The claim infuriates Rafeyenko. “It was an out and out lie, aimed at a western audience. My conscience began to hurt. I was 46 years old and didn’t know Ukrainian. I decided to learn it to a level where I could speak and write it.”
Rafeyenko moved to Kyiv leaving behind his job as a writer, literary critic, poet and scholar. “I began to study Ukrainian. It was a principled decision,” he said. Three and half years later, he published Mondegreen, his seventh book, and his first written in the Ukrainian language. His second Ukrainian novel, Petrichor, is out soon.