Oct 7 Buonasera Mag
Day 227: Zelensky, ground war, Biden nukes, Kra'lovec, Matviyenko, Altai, Merkel, MaryJane, US chips, Iran, Politkovskaya-A&Ps-Scollick, Cirincione, Sushko, Schmitt, Cuda
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Putin’s nuclear blackmail…
President Zelensky: "The world will never forgive either Putin or Russia if he actually uses nuclear weapons.”
Back in May, Olga and I spoke with a leading expert in nuclear conflict resolution, Joseph Cirincione. What he had to say stands today as Putin attempts to blackmail us all with nuclear threats.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky: “More than (500 square kilometres) have been liberated from Russian occupiers in the Kherson region alone” since the start of October.”
Ukrainian defenders continue to liberate territory and settlements in the north of Luhansk region and Kherson region. The Ukrainian military maintains operational silence to protect advancing troops.
On the Russian airfield "Shaykivka" in Russia, as a result of a drone attack, two TU 22M3s that bombed Ukraine were destroyed.
Ukrainian troops have reported outages of their Starlink communication devices while fighting on the frontline, according to Ukrainian officials and soldiers.
LNR Ambassador to Russia, Rodion Miroshnik, claimed that over 10,000 Ukrainian troops have amassed west of Kreminna, and that Russian forces have largely lost contact with Svatove and Kreminna.
General Staff of the UA AF: 500 mobilized Russians have arrived to reinforce the Russian army fighting in temporarily-occupied Donetsk region. Former Russian law enforcement officers have been made commanders of the newly-formed units.
Retreating Russian forces blew up a dam to flood Rayhorodok in Donetsk region. Before the Russian offensive placed Rayhorodok on the front line, nine thousand people lived in the settlement.
In the Kharkiv region where Ukrainian forces regained a large swathe of ground in September, the bodies of 534 civilians including 19 children were found after Russian troops left, Serhiy Bolvinov of the National Police in Kharkiv said in a briefing.
President Biden has warned the world could face “Armageddon” if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon to try to win the war in Ukraine. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” he said. “He’s not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”
Serhii Nykyforov clarifies Pres Zelensky’s statements on “preventative strikes”: “Colleagues, you have gone a little too far with your nuclear hysteria and now you hear nuclear strikes even where there are none. The president spoke about the period before 24 February. Then it was necessary to apply preventive measures to prevent Russia from starting the war. Let me remind you that the only measures that were about then were preventive sanctions.”
SBU charges 26 collaborators with treason for organizing sham ‘referendums’ in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts. Ukraine’s Security Service reported that three high-ranking Russian proxies are among those charged for helping to organize Russia’s sham “referendums” in late September.
The Czech Republic is laying claim to Kaliningrad, the small Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea? Yes, but only on social media. It's a meme campaign meant to skewer Moscow's attempted annexation of a wide swath of Ukraine, laying bare how breathtakingly baseless it is in the eyes of the international community.
The Chairman of the Federation Council, Valentina Matviyenko, often makes statements designed to probe public opinion when the Putin wants to launch a new initiative. Yesterday, she publicly advocated the immediate start of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. She underscored the need to “to objectively understand the genesis of the Ukrainian crisis and why Russia was forced to stand up for the civilians of Donbas, who have been subjected to a blockade and regular shelling for eight years.” Same old, same old. Putin won’t be able to win this war on the battlefield: this is the reason for ‘peace talks’.
Vladimir Poletaev, Federation Council of Altai: In the Republic of Altai, not a single man could be mobilized because the men simply do not show up for their summonses.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is filing a lawsuit against media outlets that highlight mobilization problems impacting the Wagner Group and link him to the Rybar Telegram channel.
The Wagner Private Military Company today launched its own private Telegram channel, indicating that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may want a voice that is clearly his own to compete with milbloggers and possibly Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov. The creation of a group may be in part a recruitment tool but is likely also an attempt to establish a formal means for Prigozhin and his allies to directly influence the information space in much the same way that Kadyrov and the Russian nationalist milbloggers use Telegram.
CNN is carrying a report today that morale is plummeting among the troops in Ukraine from the Wagner mercenary group. CNN has interviewed a former Wagner commander now seeking asylum in Europe. It reports:
I am convinced that if Russia did not use mercenary groups on such a massive scale, there would be no question of the success that the Russian army has achieved so far,” Marat Gabidullin – a former Wagner commander who was once in charge of 95 mercenaries in Syria – told CNN.
Two Russians escaping mobilisation sailed to St Lawrence Island in a small boat on Monday and were flown off the island on Tuesday according to the Town Clerk Curtis Silook. The Russians told villagers they had sailed their boat from the city of Egvekinot in Northeastern Russia, approximately 300 miles by sea.
Former Chancellor Merkel on relations with Russia: in a speech two days ago, Merkel said that the "security architecture” could be achieved, “only under involvement of Russia. Because as long as WE have not really done that, the Cold War is not really finished". It was Russia’s exclusion from this architecture which led to the continuation of the Cold War- that this depends on the West.
Every vote will count next week when the United Nations General Assembly gathers to vote on a resolution to condemn Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock has said.
Russia’s federal censor, Roskomnadzor, has blocked access to the site Ekho, a project of former employees of the radio station Ekho Moskvy, according to the Ekho Telegram channel. Ekho Moskvy was liquidated shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Employees of the station later announced that it would resume broadcasting under the name Ekho.
President Biden pardoned anyone convicted under federal law for simply having the drug and will review whether the U.S. should still treat it similarly to heroin and ecstasy. About 6,500 people will have their records cleared, and the review could lead to marijuana being decriminalized at the federal level. One problem: Most marijuana convictions are under state law, so Biden’s pardons won’t cover them.
The U.S. imposed sweeping new restrictions on China’s access to advanced chip technology, the latest move in an intensifying economic cold war. The moves are the clearest sign yet that a dangerous standoff between the two superpowers is increasingly playing out in the technological sphere.
The 2022 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski from Belarus, the Russian human rights organisation Memorial and the Ukrainian human rights organisation Center for Civil Liberties. Olga and I spoke with Oleksandra Matviichuk on Kremlin File, which I have posted here on EuroFile. Speaking with Oleksandra was a privilege, and please listen to her words.
OTD Anna Politkovskaya was murdered- Stroehlein
Two decades ago, I asked Russian investigative journalist & human rights defender Anna Politkovskaya how she could keep doing what she did. For her reporting on abuses by Russian forces in the 2nd Chechen War, the military detained & beat her & subjected her to mock execution.
“How can you go on with your investigations? Surely you know the military’s intimidation is not just for show, and that they may actually kill you next time, no?”
“Of course,” she replied. She saw no choice:
The crimes had to be exposed, and she was in a position to do it.
Politkovskaya was poisoned on a plane in 2004. She survived the poisoning. But she was shot dead outside her apartment on this day in 2006.
I don’t believe that human rights defenders like Politkovskaya have any desire to become martyrs.
They feel taken over by the gravity of the issue and become possessed by the historical importance of what they do.
We see dissidents’ bravery and vision as inspiring, but also incomprehensible. We struggle to understand what makes them choose such a dangerous path in life.
But that’s just it: We see it as a brave choice. They don’t see any choice at all.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Ukraine: The critical moment has arrived- Politico
But no matter what, now is not the time for the West to soften its resolve in the fight against Putin — it’s time to step it up. There is no “escape ramp” to offer him; no elegant way of enabling him to declare victory. Those pushing such “solutions” don’t understand Putin — or worse, they’re advocating a policy of appeasement against a fascist dictator to try to reduce their gas bill.
What is Putin’s off-ramp?
Nikolaj Nielsen, EU wants to see US list on Russia financing of politicians-EUobserver
The European Commission wants to know which European political parities and politicians received covert Russian funding. "We will get to the bottom of it," Margaritis Schinas, the commission's vice-president told MEPs in Strasbourg on Wednesday (5 October).
His comments follows a recent US intelligence review that says Russia gave at least $300m [€305m] to political parties, officials and politicians in more than two dozen countries since 2014.
Heidi Cuda, Agitation and Propaganda: Russian Indicted for Using US Political Groups as Foreign Agents- Byline Times
Moscow resident Aleksandr Viktorovich Ionov has been indicted by the United States in collaboration with at least three Russian agents for engaging in foreign malign influence campaigns targeting the country.
Founder of the Anti-Globalisation Movement of Russia (AGMR) – a body financed by the Russian Government – Ionov is accused of funding Russian propaganda designed to exploit divisions in the US, at a time of heightened economic, racial and social tension.
What Russian media is saying about Putin on his birthday…
