Oct 7: Saturday Stories
Day590 Kherson Kharkiv Odesa TurkishShip CombatSit Verbove BehindLines Orbàn camps InRussia CBTBO Serbia NK Allies ROM LITH SWE US UK Krausz A&P ISW UKDef 60Mins ABCTrump Finley KI SpyCast
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
People from every family in the Ukrainian village of Hroza have been affected by the Russian missile attack that killed dozens of people on Thursday, interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, has said. He said “every family, every household” was represented by at least one person at the wake. The Russian missile strike killed 52 people and damaged 72 buildings.
Russia unleashed new airstrikes on Ukraine early on Friday, killing a 10-year-old boy and his grandmother in the city of Kharkiv and damaging grain and port infrastructure in the Odesa region in the south, Ukrainian officials said. The boy and his grandmother were killed when Russia hit Ukraine’s second biggest city with two Iskander ballistic missiles, regional governor, Oleh Synehubov, said.
Rus.EE: A joint convoy of the non-profit organizations "Free Ukraine" (Vaba Ukraina) and "Help to Ukraine" (Ukraina Abi) came under a Russian missile strike in Ukraine. The Estonian volunteers were not injured, but their equipment was destroyed.
Russia targeted the port and border infrastructure of the Danube, the Prosecutor General's Office reported. Granaries, administrative buildings and freight vehicles were damaged - 9 trucks were burnt.
A Turkish-flagged cargo ship received damage from a mine near the coast of Romania in the Black Sea. As a result of the incident that happened yesterday, the ship was slightly damaged. Luckily the crew was not injured.
On Oct 6, Sevastopol was under Ukrainian attack for most of the evening and night, as reported by locals, resulting in a blackout.
Combat Situation Update
Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov reports that locals in both Tokmak and Prymorsk have reported explosions.
Noel Reports: Novoprokopivka-Verbove direction:
The AFU has liberated a new area east of Novoprokopivka
The Ukrainian forces launched an attack on Kopani, west of Robotyne, to secure the flank. Everything in preparation for the attack on Novoprokopivka.
AFU has restarted operations near Verbove.
Kupyansk-Dvorichna: The Russian offensive has ended in a complete failure in the Kupyansk direction. After failing to gain a foothold in Synkivka, Russian forces have now also lost ground west of Lyman Pershyi. The forest area there is partly under AFU control again.
Russian appointed head of Kherson military-civilian administration Volodymyr Saldo, said that Russia is watching the movement of Western-made Ukrainian armored military equipment and an increase in the concentration of troops on the right bank of the Kherson region.
"Ukrainian forces are preparing to cross the Dnipro river and break through the defense of the Russian forces. Small Ukrainian assault groups are constantly conducting amphibious operations on the Dnipro islands."
Russian MoD Shoigu indicated that the Russian MoD may be establishing training regiments that can also serve as ‘in extremis’ operational or strategic reserves, although this is a low confidence assessment.
BBC: The Russian authorities are actively recruiting citizens of Serbia and other Balkan countries to participate in the war in Ukraine. About 100 people have been recruited so far, but the scheme used to recruit mercenaries has now been frozen.
CBS News: North Korea has started supplying Russia with artillery for the war against Ukraine. The North Korean support for Moscow appears to be the culmination of the rare summit last month in Moscow, when Kim Jong Un traveled by train to meet Putin in person.
Behind the Lines
The head of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) said on Friday that for Russia to consider pulling out of the treaty would be “concerning” after Moscow indicated it was moving towards revoking its ratification
A Ukrainian court has frozen the Ukrainian assets of three Russian businessmen over their alleged support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, prosecutors and the security service said. The Ukrainian Security Service said assets owned by Mikhail Fridman, Pyotr Aven and Andrey Kosogov had been frozen, Reuters reports. They were considered part of Vladimir Putin’s close circle and contributed to “large-scale financing of the Russian Federation’s armed aggression”, it said.
BBC News reports on the new ICRC “Geneva Code of cyberwar”
On Wednesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) issued the first list of rules for civilian hackers ever created.
Dubbed a “Geneva Code of cyberwar”, it was initially criticised as unworkable. But now Ukrainian and Russian hackers say they will comply with the rules.
Since the invasion of Ukraine there has been a steady stream of disruptive cyber-attacks against public services in both Ukraine and Russia with varying degrees of impact.
Hacktivist groups have been using largely unsophisticated forms of cyber-attack, but successfully temporarily disrupted banks, companies, pharmacies, hospitals, railway networks and civilian government services for Ukrainian and Russian citizens.
With few soft targets in government or military, hacktivists on both sides have revelled in causing friction for ordinary people to further their causes, often collecting angry social media posts from those affected by their attacks.
By vowing to comply with the ICRC rules, hacker groups will avoid cyber-attacks that affect civilians.
Speaking to the BBC, the leader of the infamous pro-Russian hacking group Killnet said he “agrees to the terms and rules of the Red Cross, let this be the first step from Killnet to peace”.
Killmilk, as he is known, started the Telegram group for Killnet shortly after his country invaded, and now has 90,000 followers.
"In response to the Russian Federation’s specious expulsion of two US Embassy diplomats in Moscow, the State Department reciprocated by declaring persona non grata two Russian Embassy officials operating in the United States,” a US State Department spokesperson said.
These are teachers.
Russia is seeking re-election to the UN’s top human rights body next week in what is seen as a crucial test of western efforts to keep Moscow diplomatically isolated over its invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reports. Some diplomats are reported to have said Russia has a reasonable chance of getting voted back onto the UN Human Rights Council in Tuesday’s secret ballot, 18 months after it was ousted in a US-led drive.
“I think there is Ukraine fatigue. And second, many people do not want UN bodies to be dominated by Western voices, not to mention overbearing attitudes,” a senior Asian diplomat told Reuters.
Meanwhile in Russia
Vice Speaker of the State Duma Anna Kuznetsova said the following in statement. This will play nicely with the QAnon crowd and the other nutters on social media.
"Our soldiers found documents on the sale of children and human organs from which Ukraine derives 7% of its national budget, with the support of private British military companies and Coca Cola."
Russian Air Force affiliated channel Fighterbomber suggests that again a Russian fighter jet/helicopter was shot down by friendly fire. "At this rate of work of our valiant air defense, we will soon be left without aviation," the channel states.
Campari files lawsuit in Russia, demands stop to Aperol imports. The Milan-based Campari Group, which owns the Italian drink brand Aperol, has filed a lawsuit in Russia to demand a stop to imports of Aperol, independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on Oct. 5.
President of Moldova Maia Sandu said that Prigozhin, former owned of PMC Wagner, planned to stage a coup d'état in the country in early 2023 in order to remove her from power.
I’m putting Orbàn in this section since he has learned to weaponise every issue the EU and NATO allies must address, and seek solutions for their collective security. He says his country has been "legally raped" in the negotations on the EU's plans to tackle migration. He made the comments on the way into the informal EU leaders summit in Grenada. Orbàn knows full well that Russia has had a heavy hand in organising migrant flows simply to cause chaos in the EU. He is aiding the country that seeks to weaken the European Union and collective Transatlantic security.
Allied Support
Sweden will send Ukraine a new package of military support worth ~$200 million. It includes mainly ammunition and spare parts for previously provided systems.
President Zelenskyy will visit Romania next week. It will be the first visit of the Ukrainian President to Romania since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. Zelenskyy will meet with President of Romania Klaus Iohannis and other officials.
Lithuania plans to allocate €340 million to help Ukraine in 2024. Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė said that in the coming years, Vilnius will need funds not only to support the refugees of the war, but also to continue supporting Ukraine if the EU countries do not agree on a €50 billion package of assistance to Ukraine.
The Netherlands allocates a new aid package to Ukraine for €102 million. The money, in particular, will be directed to reforms and preparation of Ukraine during winter.
Scholz pledges another Patriot system to Ukraine. Germany will send Ukraine another Patriot air defense system "to help ward off aerial and drone attacks during the coming winter months," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Oct. 5.
Ukraine to receive more Hawk air defense systems from Spain. Spain will provide Ukraine with another six Hawk air defense systems to combat potential Russian bombings of civilian facilities and protect the new Black Sea corridor, the Spanish government announced on Oct. 5.
UK to provide Ukraine with $600 million in winter support payments. U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced new humanitarian aid on Oct. 5 to help Ukrainians survive the second winter of Russia's full-scale war.
Hungarian Nobel laureate to donate prize money to Ukraine charity. The Hungarian-born scientist Ferenc Krausz, who was one of the three joint winners of the Nobel Prize in Physics awarded on Oct. 3, said that he plans to donate the prize money to a charity he founded last year to help Ukraine.
Around the World
Georgian Parliament proposes law banning tents during protests to avoid a 'Ukrainian Euromaidan' scenario. The Georgian Parliament proposed on Oct. 5 amending a law that would strengthen restrictions on protests and public gatherings, including setting up tents or stages for speakers.
“In emails and conversations after meeting with Trump, Pratt described Trump's remarks to at least 45 others, including six journalists, 11 of his company's employees, 10 Australian officials, and three former Australian prime ministers, the sources told ABC News.
“While Pratt told investigators he couldn’t tell if what Trump said about U.S. submarines was real or just bluster, investigators nevertheless asked Pratt not to repeat the numbers that Trump allegedly told him, suggesting the information could be too sensitive to relay further, ABC News was told.”
60 Minutes: Gen. Mark Milley, who regularly met with President Biden as part of his role as the nation’s highest ranking military officer, was asked about Mr. Biden’s age.
Monique: Sorry guys, I just don’t get it. Frankly, Biden is not a spring chicken, fine. I sat and considered how president Biden has been able to keep a coalition together, rallied allied support for Ukraine, and upheld vital American national interests and I don’t understand what the problem is. We’re at a pivotal moment in history and he’s taking on extraordinary global events.
Programming note…
SpyCast: This promises to be very cool. A deep dive into Israeli Intelligence with the first episode of our month-long series. Listen here https://bit.ly/48EOyS4 or wherever you get your podcasts.