Oct 8 EF- Saturday Edition
Day 228: Kerch Bridge, nukes, Belarus, IAEA, Isreal, UK, Germany sabotage- A&Ps- Scarr, Tsurkov, UA Defence, Grozev, Kovalenko, Quirk, Avdeeva, Fink, Berlinski, Hyde
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Kerch Bridge
At 4:30am and 6:05am, locals say there were two big explosions.
Ukrainska Pravda: SBU behind explosion at Crimean Bridge. Ukrainska Pravda, an online newspaper, cited law enforcement sources. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) indirectly confirmed the report.
If the FSB was unable to adequately protect the Crimea bridge then its ability to adequately protect any key infrastructure or personnel is now in question.
Russia announced that both sides partially collapsed, meaning the other side of the road bridge is seriously damaged too. They cannot use the bridge at all or they will be taking chances of the other side fully collapsing and this may go on for weeks or even for months to repair. They also say the railway line can also collapse soon because of fire and high temperature.
Russian MFA spokeswoman Zakharova: "The reaction of the Kyiv regime to the destruction of civilian infrastructure testifies to its terrorist nature."
Russia will have serious logistical challenges using occupied portions of southern Ukraine as a resupply route. Military hardware on rail passed over the KS bridge to supply Russian invasion forces in southern Ukraine.
The Putin administration has already sent to the Russian media a "manual" for covering news about the Crimean bridge:
emphasize that the bridge was not destroyed but only partially damaged on the road and railway parts;
preparations for restoration work have already begun;
the Ministry of Transport launched new logistics routes;
the Kerch ferry crossing has been launched.
Judging by the content of Russian state media reports, the presidential administration's recommendations are being implemented.
Russian Reactions
Via Christo Grozev: Kotsnews
The most stupid thing that can be done now is to start reassuring the country, assuring that nothing terrible has happened. Happened. Yes, the bridge has not collapsed completely, yes, it is subject to restoration, yes, other logistics chains will be involved through the liberated territories. But who will now guarantee their safety?
There are several aspects to what happened.
First, the Khokhols, using typical terrorist tactics, hit the symbol. The Crimean bridge is a symbol of the fact that the peninsula is securely sewn into Mother Russia and nothing will tear it away from it. But, unlike the previous attacks on the Crimea, this informational victory does not turn out to be called language. And that’s why.
Becuase, secondly, the Crimean bridge in our time is primarily military logistics that supplies our group in the Kherson direction. Moreover, both the automobile branch and, to a greater extent, the railway, which, apparently, was also disabled for some time. Against the backdrop of the already not very prosperous situation near Kherson, the terrorist attack can be considered as the final touch before the storming of the regional center. And then- a trip to Zaporozhye and the Crimea.
Occupation authorities impose rationing on grocery sales in Crimea. Long lines were present all day at gas stations. Energy Ministry reports that stocks of gasoline and diesel are now enough for at least 15 days.
Rob Lee: A Russian TG channel says that Russia needs to respond to today’s events by targeting Kyiv with a nuclear missile. And warns that if there isn’t such a response, they will be fighting in Crimea in two weeks. (Doesn’t look like Ukraine is intimidated by nuclear threats.)
My hypotheses regarding #CrimeanBridge: This isn't a track-planted bomb as Russian propaganda says. This isn't an SBU operation as the Ukrainian media claim. This isn't a boat-planted bomb delivered under the bridge. Most signs of a precise strike by a powerful missile.
Russia will never admit that Ukraine's military blew up Putin's precious bridge. They keep the narrative that Ukraine can't do anything. That's why Rus. propaganda claims that it was just a car bomb like a random terroristic suicidal act that happens in Russia sometimes.
This isn't a @ServiceSSU operation as the Ukrainian media claim. SBU is still weak & full of Russian moles, so it barely can do the primary work of finding spies. It's not their primary job. There are other units more capable like the entire SpecOp forces inside the UAF.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky has said Russian officials have begun to “prepare their society” for the possible use of nuclear weapons in the war. In an interview with the BBC, Zelensky denied having called for strikes on Russia, urging instead for pre-emptive sanctions to be imposed on Moscow.
They begin to prepare their society. That’s very dangerous. They are not ready to do it, to use it. But they begin to communicate. They don’t know whether they’ll use or not use it. I think it’s dangerous to even speak about it.
All Putin is afraid of is not a nuclear strike. He’s afraid of his society, of his people. Because only this people can replace him, strip him of his power and give it to another person.
Russia has named a new senior commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russia’s operations in Syria, is “a notoriously corrupt and brutal general even by the Russian army’s standards, according to the UK MOD,” reports the FT’s Moscow bureau chief.
A source within Vladimir Rogov's Russian occupation government in Zaporizhzhia says the last communication line between the Zaporizhzhia NPP and Ukraine's energy system has been cut.
The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, will travel to Russia early next week for talks on setting up a protection zone around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the agency said.
Sviatlana Tsikanouskaya: When it comes to the Belarus regime, we have to look at their actions, not listen to their words. Yesterday, Belarus airspace was again used by Russia to launch an airstrike against Ukraine. Lukashenka continues to threaten international peace and security. He must be treated as a criminal.
Israel may transfer anti-drone guns to Ukraine to combat kamikaze drones of Iranian production. "It is Israel that is interested in working out tactics to counter the use of these UAVs.
The UK has rejected Moscow’s call for a secret ballot in the United Nations general assembly next week on whether to condemn Russia’s move to annex four regions in Ukraine and requested that the 193-member body vote publicly. “To conduct a secret ballot on a general assembly decision would go against decades of precedent and undermine the practices of the world’s most representative deliberative body,” the UK’s UN ambassador, Barbara Woodward, said on Friday.
The German defence minister has told Nato it must do more to bolster security, warning: “We cannot know how far Putin’s delusions of grandeur can go.” Christine Lambrecht said Germany had heard of Russian threats to Lithuania for implementing EU sanctions and that they must be taken seriously and be prepared.
News for Totalausfall at Bahn : Several sources from the security authorities speak of the first indications of possible sabotage. 2 cables important for the communication system (GSM-R) were severed at 2 different crime scenes. Then the whole system went down.
Christine Quirk, What Makes Ukrainians Special? The Cosmopolitan Globalists
In between and since the Orange Revolution and The Revolution of Dignity, Ukrainians have pressured their government to crack down on corruption. They’ve involved themselves in the boring machinery of local government by taking advantage of Ukraine’s decentralization policy, which has given local communities more control over budgets. Because of hard work of multiple NGOs that are fighting the battle against Russian disinformation from multiple angles, Ukrainians have become sophisticated consumers of online information. They vote in elections, even if they don’t like their options. It’s taken twenty years to get to this point, but the progress shows every day of this awful war.
Christine Quirk’s article is an excellent place to start to understand why Putin made a monutental misjudgment in thinking he could destroy the Ukrainian state. Ukrainians have the widest network of NGOs and community activists in Europe. They’ve had to develop these grassroots community ties in order to fight for their freedom, something that is very difficult for Western Europeans to understand. We don’t live next door to Russia.
What is amazing is that Ukrainians go about their business without asking for a pat on the back. They just get down to it.
Silicon Curtain Podcast with Jonathan Fink
Putin is counting on a loss of cohesion among Western allies, to help him win the war in Ukraine. Hungary and Italy have particularly been targeted to weaken their resolve. So what are the implications of the Italian election for Ukraine?
Claire Berlinski, Caesarian Democracy- The Cosmopolitan Globalists (must read)
Right-wing populism or left-wing populism?
A host of terms have been used to describe governments where this ideology prevails: hybrid regime, partial democracy, low-intensity democracy, empty democracy. Some have personalized it, calling it Putinism, Orbánism, or Erdoğanism. Because I like what it evokes, I’ve called it the New Caesarism.
Marina Hyde, Liz Truss has found her feet – as a leading UK conspiracist and No 10 whiner-in-chief- The Guardian
The rapturous standing ovation at the end of Liz Truss’s conference speech looked straight out of a future Netflix documentary from the cults strand. Outside the sect’s meeting hall, the party is polling an average of 25 (TWENTY-FIVE) points behind Labour. Inside, the people were clapping like they’d just heard a really charismatic argument about why it’s important to marry teenage girls, shun dissenting family members, and build gun turrets round their compound.
I did not know that…
