Oct : E-Stories
Day602 Kherson Zapo UAgrain CombatSit 9helis BehindLines BUL PutinXiOrban Lavrov RUdom Tatars Allies ROM ISRAEL ChinaUS McGonigal CIA JustWar Biden A&P Halushka Rybar Noel UKDef Davis
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
2 killed, 3 injured in Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia. 2 were killed and three injured after Russia attacked a high rise building in Zaporizhzhia with missiles overnight on Oct. 18, the Interior Ministry reported via its official Telegram channel.
A Russian strike killed one civilian and wounded three more on Wednesday in Ukraine’s Dnipro region, regional governor Serhiy Lysak said. Lysak said on Telegram that six private houses were damaged, according to Reuters.
A Norwegian Navy ship shadowed a Chinese container ship investigated over damage to a gas pipeline in the Gulf of Finland for about 15 hours as it sailed along the western coast of Norway on Monday, vessel tracking data showed. Reuters reports:
Finnish investigators on Tuesday said they were looking into the Chinese vessel, the NewNew Polar Bear, and a Russian-flagged ship, the Sevmorput, as well as other vessels, present in the area when a Baltic Sea pipeline was damaged on 8 October.
They said the incident was due to “outside activity” and could have been deliberate.
The NewNew Polar Bear is a container ship travelling between Europe and China via the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic.
On Monday, it left the Baltic Sea and entered the North Sea to head north along the Norwegian coast.
A Norwegian coast guard patrol vessel, the KV Sortland, shadowed the NewNew Polar Bear from Monday 0400 GMT off Norway’s southern tip, until around 1915 GMT, when the vessel was 70 km (43 miles) northwest of Bergen, Marine Traffic data showed.
The area covered broadly coincides with the area where most of Norway’s exporting gas pipelines are located, as well as some of its key oil and gas platforms.
Ukrainian farmers sow 45 million hectares of winter crops but volumes expected to drop by 20%. The volume of winter crops is expected to drop by 20% compared to last year as farmers lack financial resources, MP Dmytro Solomchuk told Ukrinform.
Combat Situation Update
Rybar claims that UAF have launched an attack in the occupied part of the Kherson region. To be verified.
There is a breakthrough towards Pishchanivka. The AFU is attacking along the railway bridge near Prydniprovs'ke.
AFU has reportedly taken control of Poima after which they started entering Pishchanivka on the northern outskirts
Ukrainian units are also preparing to breaktrough between Kozachi Laheri and Krynky a bit more north
Russian forces are likely to escalate their assault on the frontline town of Avdiivka and have been shelling nearby Ukrainian positions, a local official has said. Ukraine has in recent weeks reported intense Russian shelling of Avdiivka, which lies just north of the Moscow-controlled city of Donetsk that was seized by separatist forces in 2014.
“I can say for sure that this is the largest offensive that has ever taken place in Avdiivka since the war began in 2014,” the head of the town’s administration Vitaliy Barabash said.
The Russian MoD announced that overnight Russian air defense systems shot down a total of 28 Ukrainian drones. Explosions were reported in Yevpatoria, Bilhorod and the Kursk regions.
ISW: ATACMS long-range missiles threaten Russian rear ammunition depots.
The U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missiles Systems (ATACMS) will likely force the Russian command to choose between fortifying existing ammunition depots or further dispersing them throughout occupied parts of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.
"The Russian military has consistently shown it can adapt to new Ukrainian strike capabilities — but only after suffering initial and pronounced losses from Ukrainian capabilities Russian commanders realistically should have prepared for," the ISW said.
US officials secretly approved sending ATACMS (APAM) in the package of aid announced Sept. 21, under the category of cluster munitions. The US administration briefed a number of members of Congress in a classified setting in order to prevent leaks. The UAF attack in Luhansk and Berdyansk, knocking out 9 Russian helis, equipment and kit (incredible result) are attributable to the US ATACMS. Here’s the back story on how Biden decided to reverse course and give the missiles to Ukraine.
Sources in the SBU report that last night Ukraine hit a Russian field camp in Postoyalye Dvory near Kursk Airport. It is reported that up to 3000 Russian soldiers and about 80 units of military equipment were stationed here. The damage is being clarified.
Behind the Lines
Reintegration Ministry: Over 67,000 people evacuated from liberated Kherson, Kharkiv oblasts. Since the autumn of 2022, over 67,000 people have been evacuated from liberated parts of Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts to safer regions, the Reintegration Ministry reported on Oct. 17.
Destruction of Kakhovka dam causes almost $14 billion in damage. Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam has caused almost $14 billion in damages to Ukraine, according to a report published by the United Nations on Oct. 17.
Finland has had increased online espionage attempts from Russia since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, security services have said. Supo, the Finnish security and intelligence service, said the country faced various threats from Russia, including cyberattacks and disinformation. Last week, Supo said Russia was one of the most active perpetrators of intelligence operations targeting Finland, amid increased tensions after the country’s accession to Nato and the war in Ukraine.
Moscow has launched a drive to recruit Serbs to fight for the Russian army in Ukraine, as the Kremlin seeks to replenish its forces, depleted by 18 months of fighting, writes my colleague Pjotr Sauer. Based on accounts provided by two Serbian fighters who travelled to Russia, as well as a leaked list of recruited Serbs, the Guardian found that Russian officials appear to have made plans to recruit hundreds of Serbian nationals to bolster the army.
Putin : "The Russian Aerospace Forces will patrol the Black Sea airspace with Mig 31 fighters armed with Kinzhal hypersonic systems. This is not a threat, but we will have visual control, supported by weapons, of what is happening in the Mediterranean.
Meanwhile in Russia
More than 50% of the Russian soldiers rendered disabled due to injuries while fighting in Ukraine have lost part of their arms or legs in amputations, Labor and Social Protection Deputy Minister Alexey Vovchenko told the news agency TASS
Russian State Duma passes bill to withdraw ratification of Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in first reading.
Putin has given a speech in Beijing, after being greeted by Xi Jinping on Tuesday. The internationally isolated leader praised the “successes” of “our Chinese friends” ahead of in-depth talks that are expected later on Wednesday. Shortly before Putin starting speaking, a handful of European delegates, including the former French prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, walked out of the room, according to Reuters.
Putin invited Biden to Moscow for blinis and tea.
Russia and China signed the largest contract in their history for the supply of grain to China, valued at $25.7 billion. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has stolen millions of tons of Ukrainian grain in occupied territories.
Putin has told reporters that he had informed Xi Jinping on “the situation that is forming on the Ukrainian track, in quite a detailed way”, according to AFP. Putin said the pair first met with their delegations, before holding “eye to eye” talks alone. He said Xi had “suggested that we be alone, and we spoke eye to eye. That’s how it was, over a cup of tea.” “We spoke maybe about an hour and a half, maybe two hours.”
Vietnam’s president, Vo Van Thuong, invited Putin to visit the country “soon” and “Putin happily accepted the invitation”, Vietnam news agency, the state’s official newswire, reported late on Tuesday.
Russia’s FM Lavrov, arrived in North Korea on Wednesday, Russian news agencies said, with a Kremlin spokesperson telling Tass the two-day visit is expected to lay the groundwork for a future trip to the country by Putin. Russian TV has played footage of crowds greeting the country’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov in North Korea alongside a welcoming party waving pom poms. Lavrov hailed Putin’s meeting with Kim as “historic,” saying their talks demonstrated the countries’ “deep interest in the development of comprehensive cooperation”, the Associated Press reports.
NATO countries are preparing for a nuclear strike on Russian territory during military exercises “on the eastern flank of the alliance,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting of the board of the Russian and Belarusian defense ministries.
NATO troops, according to Shoigu, regularly conduct large exercises based on “military conflict scenarios” with Russia and Belarus. In particular, at these exercises they practice “the use of nuclear weapons with the help of US aviation and NATO nuclear forces ,” Shoigu said.
Monique: I’m leaving this here. NATO does not have any offensive-forward strategies to attack Russia with nuclear weapons or otherwise. None. Nada. Rien. It’s posture is defensive and our national governments would be hard pressed to get a defence up and running quickly. I’m including this statement here as it could be signalling something.
How Russia’s liberal tech companies became foundation of Putin’s war effort
Many hoped that liberal, Western-facing Russian tech companies would become a disruptive and modernizing force not just inside Russia's economy but across society as a whole: a much-needed pushback against the creeping state oppression that began to take hold after the 2011 large-scale opposition protests.
But that dream never came to fruition.
A decade later, Russia's tech behemoths are no longer the country's great liberalizing hope but an integral part of the Putin regime: censoring information, suppressing dissent, and giving security services the data they need to track opposition figures.
TASS- Russian obsession with demographics:
“Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin proposed preparing boys from school for family life and the role of a father.
“There is no family without a man. By the way, we need to think about raising boys in schools, so that they prepare for becoming fathers, for relationships, including in the family and with a woman. Look, now they don’t want to start a family, they get cats and live with them,” Volodin said during the report of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova on the situation of families with children at the plenary session of the chamber.
The parliamentarian is convinced that men without a family and children at the age of 40 are unlikely to take on such responsibilities, because they are afraid of it.
“Therefore, it is our committee on family issues [women and children] that must deal with these issues. Families, because a family is mom, dad, and children. When we talk about women’s issues, where do you have men?" - concluded Volodin.”
Allied Support and Europe
Zelenskyy met with the Prime Minister of Romania, Ion-Marcel Ciolacu. They discussed the further defense support of Ukraine from the side of Romania and the issue of food security, namely the importance of building new logistical routes for the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products through the territory of Romania.
US, South Korean and Japanese officials have met in Jakarta to discuss North Korea’s engagement with Russia, including arms transfers violating UN security council resolutions.
Pashinyan says Armenia ready to sign peace treaty with Azerbaijan. "We must move steadily towards peace," Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Oct. 17. "To do this, political will is necessary, and I have that political will."
Zelenskyy was not denied a visit to Israel. "We discussed a visit with them immediately after the Hamas attack, and they told us that we would have to wait. At that time, no foreign leader was expected in Tel Aviv," Kuleba said.
Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Russian diamonds flow West despite sanctions, directly finance war
Major brands like Cartier and Tiffany claim they don’t sell Russian diamonds – but they may be misleading their clients. Russian stones likely end up in their pieces with their origin being whitewashed, according to an investigation by the Kyiv Independent.
Russian private military company Redut is financed and controlled by the country’s military intelligence, known under its Russian acronym GRU, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s investigative projects Schemes and System.
The images of EU member state Hungary’s prime minister shaking hands with Putin were “very, very unpleasant” and defied logic given Budapest’s past history with Moscow, Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, has said.
Impeachment of Georgian president fails to garner enough votes in parliament. A measure to impeach pro-Western Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili on Oct. 18 failed to receive enough votes in parliament to pass, allowing her to remain in office.
Around the World
A Hamas official says they are willing to release all civilian hostages in an hour if Gaza bombing stops. This comes shortly after the Al-Ahly hospital was reportedly hit. The Palestinian Health Ministry says 500 people died and points towards Israel. Thousands of civilians were sheltering in the hospital last night, local officials said, The Health Ministry in Gaza said the number of casualties was expected to rise.
Palestinian officials said the blast was caused by an Israeli airstrike but provide no evidence to prove their allegations. Israeli officials said the explosion was the result of a failed rocket attack by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an armed group aligned with Hamas, which a spokesman for the group denied. (Monique: I have no idea what is happening here. If it were a missile attack, where’s the crater?)
IDF: Listen to the conversation between Hamas operatives as they discuss the failed Islamic Jihad rocket launch on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on October 17, 2023.
Two US officials said that the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, numbering more than 4,000 sailors and Marines, will join a growing American fleet off the coast of Israel that will include two aircraft carriers and their associated escort ships.
NYT: White House officials yesterday said that a planned summit in Jordan, during which Biden planned to stress to Middle Eastern leaders the risks of the crisis expanding beyond Gaza, had been canceled.
Officials said the decision to cancel the Jordan meeting was “made in a mutual way” between Biden and King Abdullah II of Jordan after Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, said that he wanted to cut his own trip to Jordan short to return home.
NYT: President Biden arrived in Israel, hoping to de-escalate the crisis in the region. President Biden also planned to ask what an aide called “tough questions” of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “as a friend” to understand Israel’s military plans and to press for humanitarian relief for civilians in Gaza.
President Biden has said “I wanted to be here today. For a simple reason I want the people of Israel, the people in the world to know where the United States stands.” Hamas has “committed evil atrocities that make Isis look somewhat rational.” He said “We have to also bear in mind that Hamas does not represent all the Palestinian people, and has brought them only suffering.”
“I’m deeply saddened and outraged by the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday. Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you. But there’s a lot of people out there not sure, so we have to overcome a lot of things.”
Hamas says it’s closely coordinating war’s next moves with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran-backed militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah are closely coordinating their next steps in fighting against Israel, a senior Hamas representative in Lebanon told POLITICO on Tuesday, just hours after Tehran warned of “preemptive action” against Israel.
He described a continual cooperation between the two groups, stressing Hezbollah was now “geared for a major war” against Israel in the north, while Hamas would burst Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “dream” of driving it out of Gaza.
The remarks will heighten fears the conflict in the Middle East could be about to spill onto two fronts and engulf Lebanon, particularly if Israel launches a ground invasion of Gaza, where its bombardments have already killed more than 2,700 people, and Tehran commits its fellow-Shiite Hezbollah proxies into all-out war.
The big question is whether the parties can still pull back from the brink. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been leading an intense Western diplomatic effort to stop the war spreading. President Joe Biden will join the effort with meetings with Arab leaders in Jordan while visiting Israel to show solidarity with the country after the Hamas attack, the worst in its history.
The U.S. Department of Defense today released a collection of declassified images and videos depicting 15 recent cases of coercive and risky operational behavior by the People's Liberation Army (China) against U.S. aircraft operating lawfully in international airspace in the East and South China Sea regions.
The images and videos released today depict what the Department's forthcoming report to Congress will describe as "unsafe, unprofessional, and other behaviors that seek to impinge upon the ability of the United States and other nations to safely conduct operations where international law allows."
The Just War Doctrine
Since everyone is talking about international law and what can or cannot be done in the execution of war, I thought I’d put down a few basic points. After all, we are witnessing Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine, and the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel. I am using these words carefully and purposefully because they refer to international law and conduct in international relations: military agents, state agents and other stakeholders who operate outside international law, and natural law, are practionners of lawlessness. They’re intent is destabilisation and violence. This must be clear.
The following are general principals, and there is a hefty literature surrounding these issues that discuss all aspects from a moral and practical point of view. This doctrine is accepted by states internationally. The doctrine is divided into two parts: justice in going to war (ius ad bellum), and justice in conducting the war (ius in bello).
Ius ad bellum: the decision for going to war
The war needs to have a just cause—a morally just cause—a proper intent. (Imperialism isn’t a proper intent: it is the negation of the sovereignty of state, and the right to exist of a population.)
War is always the last resort after all other avenues of diplomacy and dialogue have been totally exhausted.
In terms of defence, a state must receive the aggression from an adversary in order to justify its defence.
War must be declared by a proper authority- an authority that can make judgments about justice. Dictators and terrorists are NOT considered proper authorities that can declare war because they preside over ‘government systems’ that do not dispense justice.
War must have a reasonable chance of success. Suicide missions are not acts of war—they are not intended to bring resolution to a wrong.
Proportionality: the benefits for waging a just war (ends) must be proportionate to the damage and death which will result.
Ius in bello: the rules governing the conduct of war
Legitimate military objectives, installations (etc) are considered legitimate targets. Civilian populations, infrastructure, and neutral targets are prohibited as are POWs that have surrendered.
Agents of war must be held accountable and responsible for their actions.
The use of force may be used to achieve goals that are designed to defeat an enemy.
Other methods of warfare (economic, psychological, political, sanctions) must follow the same rules.
In general, military agents cannot do anything that is considered inherently evil: these are acts that negate natural law.
Programming Note…
Julia Davis’s Russian Media Monitor offers this gem on the Russian reaction to ATACMS.
My educated guess is there is no crater the hospital parking lot because the malfunctioning missile fell into the parking lot at the speed of gravity and then the fuel exploded and burned.
If the engine had been working, it would have hit the ground at a much higher speed and the warhead would have detonated properly which would have created a crater.
Images after the explosion show the hospital intact so it is likely there were few if any casualties inside. The dead and injured were most likely in or near the automobiles in the parking lot. We will never know the actual casualty numbers because the authorities in the area don't dare contradict the official Hamas line. Based on the image, a rough estimate of less than 100 killed and wounded is far more likely than 500 killed.
These crude missiles have the accuracy of a bottle rocket. I wouldn't be surprised Hamas doesn't kill and injure far more Palestinians with them than is reported.