Sept 1 Buonasera Mag
Day 190: Zaporzhzhia NPP, Kherson, EU energy. Kantor, Maganov, Tokyarev, China, Naftogaz, Zhadan Arts & Posts: Vetrov, UA MoD, DFRLab, RU taxis, UA children, Hickman, Hooker, Decode39, Stark, NAFO
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Vadym Vetrov reporting: The Russians are shooting on the road the IAEA mission is on in an effort to block them. The video shows Energodar this morning, and the artillery fired on residential areas. IAEA director general Rafael Grossi says that the mission will not be stopped.
The Ukrainian operator of the Zaporizhzhia NPP on Telegram: On the morning of September 1, Energodar, a satellite city of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, came under fire from the occupying forces. A group of Russian K-52 attack helicopters “worked” over the city, striking residential areas. A mortar attack was carried out in the immediate vicinity of the territory of the ZNPP and nuclear reactors.
The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, said he was able to look at the “key things” he needed to see while visiting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant today, Russian media has reported.
A direct threat to Ukraine and the West. MFA spokeswoman Zakharova tweeted: “EU is now busy with important decision – whether or not to issue visas to Russians. But radiation doesn't need a visa to cross borders. If something happens at Zaporozhye, it will not be about visas, passports or borders.”
Stories we’re following…
Russian sources confirm an extremely deep push by the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson oblast. They claim Ukraine lost more than 30 armored vehicles and AFU "drive over their own corpses", but managed to cut off the T2207 (Russian supply route to Davydiv Brid).
A message to the press from the Kyiv Independent:
Sanctions against Russia will not be lifted even if protests begin in the winter due to high energy prices, the German Foreign Minister said. In this case, it will be necessary to provide people with social assistance, and not lift sanctions, said Annalena Baerbock.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence officialy reports that the UK is donating undersea minehunter drones to help Ukraine clear coastline.
Russia's war with Ukraine has caused untold environmental damage. 30% of Ukraine's forests have been damaged by Russian bombings and mine explosions.
In the event of a serious risk of shortage for one of its European partners, France will share its reserves. A reciprocal commitment, provided that the country requesting it has already reduced its gas consumption by 15%.
Naftogaz succeeds in postponing most Eurobond payments until 2026. According to the Ukrainian state energy company, 77% of investors agreed to delay €600 million of loans for two years after the original 2024 deadline, The remaining €90 million will be repaid by 2024.
The head of the board of directors of Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, died after falling out of a hospital window. "This morning Maganov fell out of the window of the Central Clinical Hospital. He died from his injuries," the source said.
Russian billionaire Vyacheslav Kantor lost 11 villas in Italy. Under the arrest of the authorities fell, including real estate, bought by a Russian from the family of Silvio Berlusconi, writes the publication L'Unione Sarda.
Japan imposes sanctions against 17 Russian individuals. Among them are State Duma deputies, Renova Group owner Viktor Vekselberg and relatives of Yury Kovalchuk.
NBC News: Federal agents search the homes of sanctioned Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg in the Hamptons and NYC.
Russia’s MFA Lavrov has warned Moldova that any actions seen as endangering the security of Russian troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria would be considered an attack on Russia. “Everyone should understand that any action that would threaten the security of our troops (in Transnistria) would be considered under international law as an attack on Russia,” Lavrov warned.
Finland has announced that it will provide €8.3m (£7.16m) in further defence aid to Ukraine. The announcement by Finland’s defence minister, Antti Kaikkonen, takes the total donations to Ukraine from Finland to €92.3m.
Via Nebenzya- US did not issue visas to the Russian Interior Minister Kolokoltsev in UN for a ministerial summit.
Tokayev ends state-of-nation speech with surprise announcement that he wants to hold a snap presidential election in autumn 2022 - ie very soon - and wants to make presidential term seven years Kazakhstan - if he wins, could stay in power until 2029.
In Italy, increasingly dominated by Russian propaganda, Serhiy Zhadan's charity concert was cancelled in Milan because it raises funds to help Ukrainian soldiers. The manager of the location said that it was against Italian law.
Ukrainian MoD: A message to the ‘guests’ in Kherson
Joel Hickman, Russia — Relegated to the Second-Division of Military Powers
Russia may have suffered more casualties in Ukraine than there are regular troops in the British Army. And that’s not the worst of it.
The Russian economy has been battered by war and sanctions since Vladimir Putin launched his all-out war of aggression six months ago today. Whilst its overall GDP is projected to contract by 6% in 2022, this figure masks a multitude of woeful economic data which could prove devastating for Russia over the longer term.
BBC, Ukraine war: History is rewritten for children in occupied areas
When Ukrainian children in occupied areas return to school on 1 September, history lessons will be taught very differently. The BBC has discovered that Ukrainian teachers are being pressured to use the Russian curriculum, which means studying the world according to the Kremlin. Most names in this report have been changed.
Italian Julia Schiff giving it all in Ukraine
DFRLab, #BotSpot: Twelve Ways to Spot a Bot
1. Activity
The most obvious indicator that an account is automated is its activity. This can readily be calculated by looking at its profile page and dividing the number of posts by the number of days it has been active. To find the exact date of creation, hover the mouse over the “Joined …” entry.
2. Anonymity
A second key indicator is the degree of anonymity an account shows. In general, the less personal information it gives, the more likely it is to be a bot.
ISW: Report August 31, 2022
Ukrainians and the West should not fall for Russian information operations portraying the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as having failed almost instantly or that depict Ukraine as a helpless puppet of Western masters for launching it at this time.
The Russian Ministry of Defense began conducting an information operation to present Ukraine’s counteroffensive as decisively failed almost as soon as it was announced on August 29.[1] Several prominent military bloggers—even bloggers who have historically been critical of the Kremlin—are promoting this message.[2]
Richard D. Hooker Jr, The Ukrainian military must reorganize to defeat Russia- Atlantic Council
The current organization suffers from span-of-control problems and prevents Ukraine from conducting large-scale offensive operations. A better approach is to convert the regional commands into true corps headquarters commanded by a three-star lieutenant general with trained battle staffs, and to introduce divisions commanded by a two-star major general as an intermediate echelon of command.
Sanctions work…
Decode39, Maria Adela and Putin’s other spies in Italy
Italy has long been a crossroads of spies, and the discovery of Maria Adela’s covert operation is just the latest in a long series. Here are some recent episodes.
It is estimated that one-third of the Russian representation in Italy is composed of operatives from all three major Russian agencies, GRU (military intelligence), SVR (espionage) and FSB (counter-espionage).
Edward Lucas on the Neapolitan widow:
The investigators’ success places a question mark over the sweeping powers and bloated budgets of some Western counter-intelligence services. Particularly troubling is that in the four years since Kolobova fled to Moscow, Bellingcat seems to have been the first to quiz her associates. It would have been good housekeeping, at least, for Italian spy-catchers to look for any loose ends.
Holger Stark, Moscow sees long- Zeit Online
It’s about a suspicion: have the Russian intelligence services infliltrated the Federal Ministry of Economics- and dealings with gas, energy, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline'?
A case of anti-espionage agency is currently investigating has made it’s way up the Federal Government and has the makings of a political scandal.
Just a reminder…
Mark Scott, The shit-posting, Twitter-trolling, dog-deploying social media army taking on Putin one meme at a time- Politico
“I see myself as a NAFO civilian propagandist,” said Stradner, an adviser to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a conservative think tank. “Until now, Russia has been the only ones willing to play a dirty game.” By posting on Twitter, she was letting her 26,000 followers know who they could turn to if they needed to deal with an infestation of “Vatniks” — a Russian pejorative for Kremlin sympathizers.
NAFO expansion is non-negotiable…
