Sept 1: E-Stories
Day 554: UASitRep Donetsk Berdyansk Bryansk BehindtheLines BEL UAdrones 1300 Turkey EU POL RUrecruitment UAKids GER UK Trump Swiss A&P Amanpour UKDef Zmina Galleotti BBCSteve ISW KyivIndie Davis
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Christiane Amanpour for CNN: In Stepnohirsk in Ukraine, a few hundred civilians are still living just 4 miles from the Zaporizhzhia frontlines. Only the elderly and least well-off are left, surviving under near constant shelling thanks to emergency services doing what they can.
Stories we’re following…
The Russian forces conducted missile attacks on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts on Aug 30, killing three people and wouding seven. Kherson Oblast was shelled by the Russians 85 times.
Air Force: Ukraine destroyed 43 out of 44 Russian missiles and drones overnight. Russia launched 16 combat drones and 28 cruise missiles at Ukraine last night, the Ukrainian Air Force reported on Aug. 30. The Russian missile attack on Kyiv on Aug 30 was the largest since the fall 2022.
6 Ukrainian pilots killed in crashed helicopters in Donetsk Oblast. Six Ukrainian pilots died when two helicopters crashed in Donetsk Oblast on Aug. 29 under unknown circumstances, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Aug. 30, citing its sources.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that a drone was shot down in the Bryansk region. The governor spoke about three downed drones in Bryansk. There have been a number of drones targetting Bryansk in the past few days. Explosions have also been reported from Berdyansk.
The agency stated that on the morning of August 31, "another attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack by an aircraft-type UAV on objects on the territory of the Russian Federation was suppressed."
Situation on the Line of Combat:
In the Kup'yans'k direction, the Russian invaders launched an airstrike on Kotlyarivka. They fired mortars and artillery at Borova, Kup'yans'k and Kyslivka in Kharkiv region –General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report given at 18:00 on 31 August 2023.
In the Lyman direction, the Russian invaders carried out airstrikes on Cherneshchyna in Kharkiv region and Novoyehorivka and Bilohorivka in Luhansk region. They shelled more than 10 settlements, including Nevs'ke, Bilohorivka (Luhansk); Verkhnokam'yans'ke (Donetsk).
ISW: Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian infantry on the northwestern outskirts of Verbove, indicating that Russian control over the outskirts of the settlement is degraded, 2.7 km further east of their previous assessed position. The UAF haven’t taken the village as of yet.
Behind the Lines: “In the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, the logistical support of the personnel of the Russian occupation forces continues to deteriorate, as evidenced by the introduction of restrictions on the food supply of certain military units”, reports Hanna Malyar, the Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister. The Russian occupation administrations of Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, were informed that from September 2023, they would not be issued food supplies. Russian police are detaining soldiers and keeping them in “zindan” (a deep hole in the ground) for not participating in the battles. The “zindan” are also used to punish local Ukrainian residents.
Behind the Lines: Russia is also mobilising labour migrants from the former Soviet republics who went to work and received Russian passports. They are arriving in Donetsk en masse.
Behind the Lines: The Ministry of Defense of Belarus reports that soldiers of one of the units of the 120th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces flew to Russia to undergo combat training with instructors at one of the training centers in Russia.
According to the Belarusian Hajun Project, today at 09:55, military of the Belarusian Armed Forces flew to Russia on board the Il-76MD of the Belarusian Air Force from Machulishchy airfield. The aircraft later landed at Kubinka airfield near Moscow.
Behind the lines: SBU attacks ‘polling station’ in occupied part of Zaporizhzhia region with drones – source. On August 29, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) attacked Kadyrov’s forces and collaborators, who were going to hold illegitimate Russian "elections".
Monique: The Ukrainian parliamentary (Oct 2023) and presidential (Mar 2024) elections that have been put aside for the moment were the focus of debate in the press. In both cases, the government and external observers could not offer guarantees to hold safe elections in keeping with Ukrainian and international law.
Fun Facts
Since January 2023, more than 190 attacks have been recorded on the territory of Russia and occupied Crimea. As per an analysis by the BBC, all the drones were made in Ukraine. That said, there is some speculation that some drone attacks were carried out by ‘others’ inside Russia: i.e. the first drone attack on the Kremlin on May 3, 2023 or areas that were simply too far for Ukrainian drones to reach.
The UAF have breached the so-called Surovikin line. The Former Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, Sergey Surovikin, is supposedly under ‘house arrest’, and has not been seen since Prigozhin’s mutiny.
NGO: EU imports record volumes of LNG from Russia in 2023. The EU is set to import a record volume of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Russia this year, with Belgium and Spain in the lead, the Global Witness reported on Aug. 30. (not so fun fact)
At the Pskov airfield, the combined forces of UAF and ‘others’ knocked out 4 Russian Il-76 transport aircrafts—’airlifters’. These were the same kind of aircraft that can transport up to 350 troops at a time and used in the Battle for Kyiv at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
A batch of Iskander-M missile systems arrived in Belarus from Russia. According to Belarusian Hajun Project, a military cargo train with at least 10 pieces of Iskander-M missile systems arrived at Asipovichy station (Mahiliou region) from Kapustin Yar village, Astrakhan oblast, Russia.
It’s known that a missile test site of the same name is located there — the 4th state central training site of the Russian Federation. It’s reported that the Iskander-M missile systems have already been put in service with the Belarusian Armed Forces. And this train with Iskanders is not the last one to arrive in Belarus.
According to the Community of Railway Workers, military cargo trains with empty flatcars and freight cars have been sent from railway stations of the Belarusian Railway to Kapustin Yar since mid-May 2023.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu instructed to switch to a round-the-clock mode of operation of the enterprise of the Almaz-Antey concern, Russia's largest manufacturer of air defense systems. According to the press service of the Ministry of Defense, on Wednesday Shoigu visited one of the concern's factories in the Tula region and "checked the progress of the state defense order."
Sad statistics: More than 30% of Russians live on less than $10 a day. 64.4% of Russians make less than 45,000 rubles a month (429 € ). More than a third (37.7 %) earn less than 27,000 rubles a month (257 € ). 20% make less than 19,000 rubles a month (181 € ). The level of poverty is stunning.
Times Radio: Russian missile strikes will not last long as “stocks are being depleted at a quicker rate than they can build them” says Mark Galeotti.
Russia plans to produce 1,300 Shahed UAVs by year-end - intelligence. Russia plans to produce 1,300 Shaheds by the end of 2023. Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said this in an interview.
100 soldiers tried in Russia every week for refusing to fight in Ukraine - British intelligence. Russian courts try about 100 soldiers every week for refusing to fight in Ukraine, which indicates the poor morale of the Russian army.
Monique: This is a follow up on the story by The Moscow Times Russian Service that has already been published on E-Stories regarding the increase in cases in Russian courts regarding men who have not reported to enlistment offices when sollicited.
Steve Rosenberg for BBC, Moscow: How are Russians reacting to the mass drone strike across their country? Our report from St Petersburg.
Agencies in Moscow have announced a mass recruitment of UAV specialists. Over the past month, no less than a hundred adverts for drone specialists have appeared in Moscow. They are looking for engineers, operators, fitters, assemblers, designers for developing means of fighting UAVs, fault analysts, test pilots, instructors for training operators and course supervisors. All are offered attractive salaries. Education and special skills are not required for these jobs. Only young men are considered for the job. Drone specialists are offered from 100,000 to 400,000 roubles for a shift of up to 90 days. They also promise 10,000 roubles for an employee brought in.
The US is concerned that arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea are actively advancing, White House national security spokesman John Kirby told a briefing on Wednesday. Kirby said Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had recently travelled to North Korea to try to convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition to Russia, Reuters reports.
Russian occupation authorities are holding regional elections in the parts of Ukraine, despite the ongoing conflict, Reuters reports. Russia does not fully control any of the four regions where the votes are being held – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson—but that’s not stopping them. Three quarters of countries at the United Nations General Assembly condemned what they termed Russia’s “attempted illegal annexation” of the four regions in a vote last October.
In all four regions, Moscow’s handpicked governors, a mix of veteran pro-Russian politicians and others known only locally, are seeking full terms of office in the polls, which conclude on 10 September, when Russia holds regional polls. The governors are all running with Putin’s endorsement and face only nominal opposition.
Preparations are underway for what is presumably the funeral of Dmitry 'Wagner' Utkin, who was the commander of the Wagner Group, at the Mytishchi cemetery. As in Prigozhin’s case, the Russian authorities have deployed a number of police forces to avoid any kind of celebratory gathering.
Putin moved his $100m (£75m) superyacht from a German shipyard to Russia just weeks before he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, according to secret documents released in a new investigation. Photos show the Graceful being towed out of Hamburg on 7 February en route to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, after the shipyard missed the 1 February deadline. The US government’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) lists the Graceful as “blocked property in which President Vladimir Putin has an interest”.
An email sent to Hamburg’s Blohm+Voss shipyard on 19 January 2022 said: “The owner wants the Graceful to be brought to the Russian Federation on February 1st … Please mobilise an uninterrupted crew – 2 shifts.” It continued: “Please accelerate all works which may interfere with Graceful sailing out on 01 February.”
Russia’s FM Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart to discuss a proposal by Moscow for an alternative to the Black Sea grain deal when they meet this week, Lavrov’s ministry said on Wednesday. Under the plan, Russia would send a million tons of grain to Turkey at a discounted price, with financial support from Qatar, to be processed in Turkey and sent to countries most in need, the Foreign Ministry said according to Reuters. The announcement comes as a senior U.S. State Department official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said U.S. and Romanian officials had been working to “potentially trying to double” the exports that go via the Danube river.
Reuters: Turkish President Erdogan and Putin will meet in Sochi on September 4 to to primarily discuss Black Sea grain exports, sources told Reuters. The two leaders will discuss fallout from the war in Ukraine as well as a deal that allowed the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea, one of the sources said.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, has urged member countries to order more ammunition for Ukraine, as figures showed the bloc is a long way from a March target of giving Kyiv a million artillery shells within 12 months. Josep Borrell on Wednesday said over-arching agreements, known as framework contracts, had been signed with arms firms to allow EU member countries to place joint orders for 155-millimetre rounds, urgently needed by Ukraine as it fights Russia’s invasion, Reuters reports.
“Now it’s (up) to the member states to pass concrete orders inside these framework agreements with the industry,” Borrell told reporters after a meeting of EU defence ministers in the Spanish city of Toledo.
But with no orders announced so far under the scheme, some EU members are urging the bloc to look at other options.
“We have to ask ourselves… can we do more? And my answer here is clearly that yes, we can,” Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur told reporters at the Toledo meeting, held at a former arms factory that is now a university building.
Lithuanian foreign minister urges EU to drop the phrase 'supporting Ukraine as long as it takes.' European countries should stop saying that they will "support Ukraine for as long as it takes" and plan for a Ukrainian victory, Lithuanian FM Gabrielius Landsbergis said.
"Supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes" should be replaced by "supporting Ukraine to its victory," he explained.
Poland to expand production of F-16 components. Polish company PZL Mielec plans to expand its production of F-16 components, with the aim to produce up to 80% of parts needed for the jet's fuselage, the Polish Press Agency (PAP) reported on Aug. 30.
Germany delivers 10 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine in latest military aid package. Berlin has transferred 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine as part of its latest military aid package for Ukraine, the German government said on Aug. 30.
US ports to help restore Ukraine's maritime infrastructure. U.S. partners will assist Ukraine in restoring its port infrastructure, which has suffered frequent attacks by Russian forces in the past weeks, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority announced on Aug. 30.
The Telegraph: The United States will place nuclear weapons in the UK. Within the year the US will deploy F-35 fighters capable of carrying nuclear warheads at the Lakenheath air force base—110 km from London. A nuclear weapons depot will also be built there.
Kuleba meets Macron during France visit. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met French President Emmanuel Macron on Aug. 30 during Kuleba's official trip to France.
This is worth a chuckle thanks to Julia Davis. Steven Seagal, who is now living in Russia and fully supports Putin’s regime, called Solovyov during this show, but he didn’t anwer the call.
The Swiss government has unveiled a plan for drastic measures to combat schemes to conceal the sources of funds entering the country's financial system. Although it aims to combat money laundering in general, the topic of countering Russians, including those trying to circumvent sanctions, occupies an important place in the discussion of tightening the financial regime, write Bloomberg and Financial Times. The main provisions of the draft law (which has yet to be publicly discussed are as follows:
all registered companies, trusts and other legal entities must disclose their beneficial owners. Information about them will be collected in a special register;
anti-money laundering requirements will also apply to lawyers, consultants, accountants and other service providers. They will have to check clients, keep information about the results of checks, report suspicious cases to the authorities;
measures are introduced to prevent violations and circumvention of sanctions restrictions;
the cash threshold for precious metals transactions has been lowered from 100,000 francs to 15,000 francs (from $114,000 to $17,100).
British Defense Minister Ben Wallace has resigned. Wallace had cited the toll that the position was taking on his family. Grant Shapps, Energy Secretary, will replace him. Wallace had held the role since 2019, overseeing the withdrawal of British forces from Afghanistan and helping co-ordinate the U.K.’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Adam Bienkov: Grant Shapps, who used a fake name in order to pose as a "millionaire web marketer" running a get-rich-quick scheme, and then lied about it for three years, is now in charge of the UK's global security and defence policy.
Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, is likely to soon be dismissed from his role, Ukrainska Pravda sources in the Cabinet of Ministers and the Verkhovna Rada and Yaroslav Zhelezniak, Ukrainian MP, on Telegram. His potential replacement is Rustem Umerov, the head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine, sources told the outlet. Zhelezniak said authorities are considering appointing Reznikov to the post of Ukraine's ambassador to the UK.
Christiane Amanpour: “Ukrainians have exceeded expectations again & again,” says NATO head Jens Stoltenberg, as the slow pace of the counteroffensive prompts concern from some allies. “We need to trust them. We advise, we help, we support. But… it is the Ukrainians that have to make those decisions” Stoltenberg also reveals that he doesn’t intend to go beyond his term ending in October 2024.
Arvo Hallik, the husband of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, reportedly maintained business interests in Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including interests also connected to a company that supplies Russian and Belarusian law-enforcement agencies with tear gas.
Monique: I’ve included this piece of news as of today but I’ve been monitoring the info that has been released about this story. It’s obviously news that the opposition in Estonia is using to try to oust Estonia’s current PM Kaja Kallas. I’ll continue monitoring how the situation evolves.
CNN: Trump pleads not guilty in Georgia election subversion case. Former President Donald Trump has pleaded not guilty in the sprawling Fulton County election interference case, according to a new court filing. Trump had been scheduled to be arraigned in person on Wednesday. Georgia law allows criminal defendants to waive their in-person appearance and enter a formal plea through court filings.
Tech giants, including TikTok and Twitter, failed to effectively tackle Russian disinformation online during the first year of the war in Ukraine, according to a study published Wednesday by the European Union. The EU has previously warned against online manipulation and interference by Russia targeting the European internet in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The independent study for the EU comes after tougher rules under the Digital Services Act (DSA) kicked in this month for the world’s biggest online platforms.
Activists identified the route by which children from the occupied Ukrainian territories are deported to Belarus
Behind the Lines: Zmina reports on the route Russian authorities are using to illegally transfer abducted Ukrainian children from the occupied territories in Ukraine to Belarus with the help of the Belarusian Orthodox Church.
With the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the number of Ukrainian children which have been abducted began to grow. According to Belarusian officials, more than three thousand children were illegally transferred. However, having calculated the total amount spent on the deportees, researchers say that at least 9,000 underage Ukrainians could have been or are still in Belarus.
Among the camps that can accommodate children:
Dubrava children’s health camp of Belaruskali (Gomel region);
Children’s rehabilitation and health center “Zhdanovichi” (Minsk district);
Zolotye Sands sanatorium (Gomel district);
Republican Children’s Hospital for Medical Rehabilitation “Ostroshitsky Gorodok” (Minsk district);
Hotel “Belarus” (Vitebsk district);
National Children’s Educational and Recreational Center “Zubrenok” (Minsk region);
Volma sanatorium (Minsk region);
Zeleny Bor sanatorium (Minsk region).
Children were taken to Belarus from the Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. The intermediate point on the way to the republic is the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where they are brought by bus and from there by the Adler-Minsk train, operated by the Belarusian Railways and runs every two days. From the Belarusian capital, they are distributed to camps.
The collapse of the ruble has two more unobvious consequences—Meduza
This weakens the economies of neighboring countries, and can also deprive Russia of the migrants it needs.
Russia is one of the largest economies in the region and a key trading partner for the EAEU countries and many CIS countries. Moreover, the ruble is the dominant currency in trade between the EAEU states. Most of the international settlements within the EAEU were carried out in Russian currency: the share of the ruble in both exports and imports is above 70%. This, in particular, means that companies from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and other countries buy rubles to trade with Russia.
In addition, many migrants from the countries of Central Asia or Armenia, for example, leave to work in Russia. They receive a salary in rubles and then often send it home. This also strengthens the dependence of the economies of the CIS countries on the ruble (how exactly - we will tell below). For example, in Tajikistan, financial flows from the income of labor migrants account for about a third of GDP, says an economist at a large financial company. [continue]
Programming note
What are and why are F-16s important for Ukraine and what are the irrational politics behind the debate on supplying Ukraine with weaponry and ammunition.