Sept 10: Sunday Stories
Day 564 RUattacks Simferopol Sumy Novoiehorivka CombatSit RUdom Armenia Angola RUphones 851 AlliedSupport Musk corruption Morocco G20 JP NATO BRI A&P NoelReports UKDef Roserberg TimesR Niland Standish
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Musk says he denied request to turn on Starlink in Crimea to prevent attack on Russia's fleet. Elon Musk said he had received a request "from government authorities" to activate Starlink, "all the way to Sevastopol." He didn't specify who exactly had sent the request. "The obvious intent being to sink most of the Russian fleet at anchor.”
Monique: I highly doubt Musk was ‘moved’ by the Russian nuclear threats. How could one of the richest men on the planet be taken in by Russia’s propaganda? Was he moved by the needs of his Tesla business instead?
The implications of Musk’s action are far-reaching: a private contractor has taken a foreign policy decision that contrasts his own government’s position, has access to high-level Russian authorities and speaks with them, and thwarted a Ukrainian operation for its own defence, thus making it much easier for Russians to launch missiles against the Ukrainian population and allowing those same missiles to hit UKrainian grain depots.
The latest information about the Musk affair reveals that he showed his biographer private messages from Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, constituting a security breach.
Stories we’re following…
Over the past 24 hours, Russian troops shelled the territories of 8 regions of Ukraine, Military Media Center reports , citing data from the situation center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. In total, 135 settlements and 185 infrastructure facilities were attacked using different types of weapons.
Update: 1 killed, 73 injured in Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih. The number of people injured in Russia's Sept. 8 missile strike against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's Kryvyi Rih has risen to 73, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.
Russia attacks Sumy Oblast, injuring 2. The Russian military shelled seven communities on the border of Sumy Oblast on Sept. 8, causing 61 explosions and injuring two civilians, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.
Simferopol in occupied Crimea. It is reported a military unit is on fire. Advisor to the head of annexed Crimea Oleg Kryuchkov confirmed that a fire occurred in a military unit in Simferopol. According to him, this is a "normal household fire." The fire was brought under control and two fire engines were called to put out the fire. A fire is also reported in Fedosia, Crimea.
Combat Situation Up-date:
Noel Reports: Ukrainian forces (likely 35th brigade) landing in Novomaiors'ke. Russian sources consider the northwestern outskirts (first several houses) under control of the AFU. Russians said to have retreated to the center of the settlement.
Military: Ukraine controls most of Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces took control of more than half of the village of Klishchiivka, located south of Bakhmut, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Maksym Zhorin told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on Sept. 8.
Romania strengthens defense in border areas due to Russia's shelling of Ukrainian ports. Romania is stepping up measures to protect civilians in border settlements on the Danube due to Russia's shelling of Ukrainian ports.
Military: Russia prepares strike force near Novoiehorivka in Lyman direction. Russia is accumulating its forces near the Luhansk Oblast village of Novoiehorivka in the Lyman direction, which is one of the epicenters of fighting on the eastern front, Eastern Force Grouping spokesperson Illia Yevlash said on Sept. 8.
ISW: Russia bolsters its defenses as Ukrainian forces advance. Russian forces are changing their communications structures and adapting their electronic warfare systems in response to the Ukrainian counteroffensive's continued advance, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Sept. 8 report.
Local residents report two loud explosions in Staryi Krym, occupied Crimea.
Official: 'United Russia' HQ destroyed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid sham elections. The headquarters of the political party "United Russia" located in the occupied city of Polohy, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, were destroyed on Sept. 8, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported via Telegram.
Electricity to Terebreno (Russia) has been cut off following an attack from Ukrainian forces, said regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.
Meanwhile in Russia
NYT: The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense (known as the GRU) are vying for the assets of the founder of the Wagner PMC, Evgeniy Prigozhin, reports The New York Times, citing officials familiar with Western intelligence assessments. According to two Western officials, the SVR will most likely gain control over Prigozhin's propaganda resources, and the Ministry of Defense and GRU will control the operations of Wagner PMC.
Farmers in the Stavropol Territory cannot purchase fuel, cannot sell their crops at reasonable prices, and are ready to “block roads.” Chairman of the Association of Farms and Agricultural Cooperatives of the region Sergei Kolesnikov stated this to AiF Stavropol. According to him, the situation in one of the largest agricultural regions of Russia, where up to 90% of the territory is sown, has become “critical.”
Steve Rosenberg: The Russian papers a few days ago mentioned US reports that Russia is trying to do an arms deal with N.Korea, despite the UN arms embargo against Pyongyang. One paper: “Moscow had signed up to UN resolutions [on sanctions]. No problem. A signature can always be rescinded.
Russia on Friday summoned the Armenian ambassador for a “harsh” protest about a list of what it termed “unfriendly steps”, the latest sign of strain between Moscow and the small ex-Soviet republic in a region Russia considers its back yard, Reuters reports.
The Angolan authorities plan to introduce a visa-free regime for citizens of the G20 countries, including Russia. This was announced by the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Angola Vladimir Tararov, who is quoted by Izvestia.
Russian media is reporting reporting that because of sanctions, mobile operators in Russia are facing a shortage of base stations needed to expand and maintain their networks. Operators such as MTS, Megafon, Vimpelcom and Tele2 only had about 20,000 to 30,000 stations by the end of the year. Normal operation requires at least 80,000 stations, said Alexander Sivolobov, deputy head of the NTI Competence Center for wireless and Internet of Things technologies said. Finland’s Nokia, Sweden’s Ericsson and China’s Huawei have all suspended their official deliveries to Russia, forcing operators to test equipment from “third echelon” manufacturers from China.
Behind the Lines
A “staggering” 851 educational facilities have been damaged or destroyed in the Russian war on Ukraine, the UN human rights office said today.
Crimea part of Ukraine, local partisans remind invaders. In the temporarily occupied Crimea, representatives of the Evil Mavka all-female partisan movement in their latest stunt reminded Russian invaders that they are on Ukrainian territory. In various locations, the partisans planted "Russian rubles" with a reminder to the occupiers: "You are in Ukraine" and "This is not Russia for you."
"Our brave Mavkas are sending greetings from Crimea. Since the prices are rising badly on the peninsula, the girls give Russians some money, but there is a nuance in this," the report says.
Election observers in Gelendzhik are given summonses to the military registration and enlistment office , said Alexander Safronov, secretary of the regional committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Safronov published photographs of two summonses: on one, the military registration and enlistment office demands to come “to clarify personal data,” on the other, to receive a mobilization order.
Peskov commented on efforts to resume the grain deal. He noted that Russia is not satisfied with the conditions offered by the West, including the UN. Moscow demands the implementation of previously reached agreements, said Putin’s press secretary.
Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov again stated that there is no need for a new wave of mobilization in Russia. “There is absolutely no need for new waves, any new waves of mobilization,” Kartapolov said in a comment to Lente.ru. According to the deputy, a new mobilization is also not needed for the rotation of military personnel in the zone of a “special military operation.” For this, he claims, contract soldiers will be used even if in the next breath he said that they already had recruited 300,000 soldiers.
The Russian Federation plans to produce 6000 kamikaze drones on its territory with the help of Iranian enterprises, -Yuri Ignat. According to Ignat, Russia is currently working on modernising the Shaheds. He noted that Russia is actively modernising Iranian drones, making them less visible to Ukrainian radar systems. The spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force Command also says that the enemy plans to improve guided aerial bombs.
IAEA: Increased military activity observed near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Signs of "increased military activity" in the areas around the Russian-occupied ZNPP pose a possible danger to nuclear security at the site:
“I remain deeply concerned about the possible dangers facing the plant at this time of heightened military tension in the region,” IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi warned in a statement issued late Friday. “Whatever happens in a conflict zone wherever it may be, everybody would stand to lose from a nuclear accident, and I urge that all necessary precautions must be taken to avoid it happening.”
Romania to set up shelters near area of Russian Danube strikes. Romania will introduce new security measures to protect the civilian population near the Danube River in response to Russian strikes against Ukrainian ports, based on a document issued on Sept. 7 by Romania's National Committee for Emergency Situations.
President Zelenskyy spoke at the Yalta European Strategy Forum in Kyiv on Friday. The two-day conference gathers Ukrainian politicians together with international policymakers and is naturally focused this year on the war effort. This year’s attendees include the former British PM Boris Johnson, whom Zelenskyy singled out for thanks for his support during the early stages of the war. Zelenskyy said Putin would attempt to use the threat of nuclear weapons to scare the West:
“Putin is left with just one step: instil fear in the west with his nuclear weapons … There will be moments when they are moving their nuclear weapons from one place to another to exert pressure on the United States,” he said.
NATO countries have begun large-scale exercises “North Coast” in the Baltic Sea, in which about 30 ships and up to three thousand military personnel will take part, the Estonian publication ERR reported. During the maneuvers, the allied countries will practice repelling a potential Russian attack off the coast of Latvia and Estonia, counterattacks, amphibious operations and land strikes from the sea.
The Council of the EU on Friday announced sanctions on 6 people for serious human rights violations in connection with their action towards members of ethnic groups in Crimea, Reuters reports. The individuals listed include prosecutors and judges active in courts established by Russia’s occupying force in Crimea who played a role in handing a prison term to a journalist who belongs to the Crimean Tatar community. Friday’s listings also include two members of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) who either took part in torturing the journalist or participated in the investigation against him and members of the Crimean Tatar community and of the Jehovah’s Witnesses in Crimea.
Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies on Friday froze more than $80m in assets belonging to tycoon Ihor Kolomoisky for 48 hours as part of an embezzlement investigation, Reuters reports citing Ukrainian media outlets. Kolomoisky, one of Ukraine’s richest men and a so-called oligarch, was ordered into custody on suspicion of money laundering last week, and, according to media reports, is being treated as a suspect in an embezzlement case.
Corruption prevention agency: Enlistment officers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Lviv involved in corruption. The National Agency on Corruption Prevention uncovered that the former head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast military enlistment office and the head of a district enlistment office in Lviv illegally accepted gifts, the Agency reported on Aug. 8.
The US is likely to send Ukraine long ATACMS according to U.S. officials. "They are coming," said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.
Lithuania has handed over 1.5 million rounds of ammunition to bolster Ukrainian forces in their fight against Russian aggression, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced today.
Fun Fact: Denmark took Leopard 1A5 tanks from three museums in order to start training the Ukrainian military faster. The tanks from the museums turned out to be in better condition than the 100 units that remained in storage.
The Naval Forces of Romania and the US will conduct joint exercises "Sea Breeze 23.3" in the Black Sea and the Danube Delta. Personnel from Bulgaria, France, UK, Türkiye and Ukraine will also take part. Training will take place from September 11 to 15.
Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi met his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, in Kyiv on Saturday. In his talks with Kuleba, Hayashi reiterated Japan’s firm support of Ukraine and Tokyo’s involvement in the international community to end Russia’s invasion as soon as possible,
Japanese businesses are interested in investing in Ukrainian infrastructure, medicine and communications, Ukraine prime minister Denys Shmyhal said. This was one of the topics of discussion during a visit from Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s minister of foreign affairs. Representatives of leading Japanese companies also attended this meeting.
Zelenskyy said on Saturday he agreed to begin bilateral talks with Japan over security guarantees at a meeting with Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi in Kyiv, Reuters reports.
Zelensky holds phone call with Saudi Crown Prince on Ukraine peace efforts. President Zelenskyy discussed Ukraine's path to peace in a telephone conversation with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, on Sept. 8.
Judge says no: Charges against Donald Trump's former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows involving efforts to reverse the 2020 presidential election results will not be tried in federal court, a sign that similar bids by the Republican former president and his co-defendants to move the criminal case to a more favorable venue may fail.
Bad news: The Global Stocktake report is the latest warning from the U.N. about environmental perils, and will form the basis of the COP28 talks in Dubai at the end of the year. It is the cap on a two-year evaluation of the 2015 Paris climate agreement goals, and distils thousands of submissions from experts, governments and campaigners.
NYT: More than 1000 people have died after a 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck Morocco. A frantic rescue effort has been underway. The earthquake, which struck about 50 miles from the city of Marrakesh late Friday, was the strongest in the area in at least 123 years, the United States Geological Survey said.
G20 India-Bharat
Bloomberg: Turkish President Erdogan is urging G-20 leaders to meet some of Russia’s demands such as insurance of Russian food and fertilizer exports and to reconnect the Russian Federation to the SWIFT banking system. US and allies have resisted thus far.
New New Delhi: Anyone familiar with India’s capital could be forgiven for thinking they landed up in a different city this weekend. Stray dogs were removed, poor people's slum homes were torn down, menacing rhesus monkeys are on the run and traffic jams are absent. Even Khan Market, source of many books in my library, is closed.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, was present to represent Russia.
The G20 leaders’ declaration on Ukraine noted the “different views and assessments” on Russia’s war on the country, but underscored that all states must act in a manner “consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN charter in its entirety,” Reuters is reporting. All states must refrain from threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state, the declaration states.
The declaration also states that G20 is not the platform to resolve geopolitical and security issues. However, it called for the “timely and effective” implementation to ensure “immediate and unimpeded” deliveries of grain, food stuff and fertilisers from Ukraine and Russia.
Today, Russia said it was sticking to its conditions for a return to the Black Sea grain deal – in particular a state agricultural bank, not a subsidiary of the bank that was proposed by the UN, to be reconnected to the international SWIFT bank payments system.
Julia Davis: Vladimir Solovyov interviewed Alex Jones and went into a meltdown over technical difficulties (this footage was later deleted from the show, but you can see it here). Jones cried, complained and almost vomited. Here are some of the cringiest moments:
Musk cut internet to Ukraine’s military as it was attacking Russian fleet—WaPo
SpaceX cut off Starlink satellite internet service to Ukrainian submarine drones last year just as they were launching an attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, according to a new biography of SpaceX founder Elon Musk.
The new details of the previously reported incident underscore how dependent the U.S. government has become on a company that once had to fight in court to become part of the Washington establishment.
The armed submarine drones were poised to attack the Russian fleet, according to a CNN report that cited an excerpt of a forthcoming biography of Musk by Walter Isaacson, a former CNN CEO and Time magazine editor. Instead, according the book, which goes on sale Tuesday, the drones “lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly.”
Ukrainian and American officials scrambled to get service restored, according to the report, appealing to Musk directly. Musk eventually agreed.
How Russia Globalized the War in Ukraine—Foreign Affairs
Russia’s strategy to globalize the war has multiple dimensions. In its economic relations, Moscow has capitalized on the opportunism of countries indifferent to the conflict: the Kremlin aims to integrate Russia into non-Western networks of trade, defense, and commerce. Ideologically, Russia blames the war on Western deceit and Ukrainian betrayal, leveling accusations of hypocrisy against the United States and its allies. Diplomatically, Russia and the West are carrying the conflict into international institutions. Whether in the UN Security Council or at the International Atomic Energy Agency, whatever modus vivendi there had once been between Russia and the West has come apart. By nurturing apathy and frustration with the war in non-Western capitals, Moscow hopes that other countries will join its ranks or at the very least distance themselves from the West.
Central to Russia’s global strategy are force and fear. Consciously stoking anxiety about nuclear catastrophe, the Kremlin seeks control over global pressure points. Its bid to strong-arm Europe through gas and energy exports may have failed, but the Kremlin has other tools at its disposal, one of which concerns the global supply of food. By pulling out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, after threatening to do so for months, Russia has upped the ante. Brokered by Turkey and the UN, this agreement ensured the wartime export of Ukrainian grain. Since leaving the deal, Russia has tried to impose a de facto blockade on civilian shipping to and from all Ukrainian-held Black Sea ports. To hinder Ukrainian shipments, it has attacked ports, grain storage facilities, and other sites along the Danube River. In so doing, Russia hopes to gain long-term coercive leverage over Ukraine, while waging a prolonged military struggle to subdue the country. [continue]
Reid Standish: BRI’s 10th Birthday
It's been 10 years since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese leader Xi Jinping's signature foreign-policy venture that has seen hundreds of billions of dollars invested into infrastructure around the world, was unveiled as part of a major push to build global influence.
But where does it stand after a decade?
Finding Perspective: It was September 6, 2013, when Xi touched down in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, and was warmly greeted by then-President Nursultan Nazarbaev. The next day, he gave a speech where he evoked imagery of camel caravans as he announced that he wanted to create a contemporary version of the ancient Silk Road.
A lot has changed since then. The initiative has been rebranded and renamed over the years and it has shifted from being seen as a rising economic tide that could lift all boats to the tip of the spear of a wider geopolitical contest for influence.
This evolution has seen BRI go a long way from its early days and has since become far more than just financing and building infrastructure. Today, there's no denying that it's an integral part of Chinese foreign policy and the Chinese Communist Party's global ambitions.
But what future does it hold?
In 10 years, it's grappled with scandals over corruption, environmental degradation, and saddling host countries with debt. The pandemic, by the Chinese Foreign Ministry's own accounting, has impacted up to 40 percent of BRI projects, while 20 percent have been severely impacted with delays or even canceled.
The flip side is that countless roads, railways, and other vital infrastructure have been built in the last decade that might not have otherwise been built -- filling a massive global need and providing a springboard for other Chinese initiatives to follow.
Why It Matters: The BRI has always been something of an ink-blot test that leaves things up for interpretation, but there's no denying that it has been undergoing some massive changes.
A series of projects across low- and middle-income countries have been sidelined or canceled in recent years over sustainability concerns in evidence of buyer's remorse from host governments. Italy, which recently announced that it plans to leave the BRI, is the latest example.
Elsewhere, it's clear that the BRI has slowed down, with fewer projects being funded amid concerns of an overseas debt crisis from the high-octane lending of the project's early days.
But data shows that while China's outbound lending has been in decline since 2016, the project is far from fading away. Rather, Beijing is learning from its mistakes. It's selecting projects and partners more carefully and research shows that it's prioritizing green initiatives and energy deals that are seen as more likely to bring a return on investment.
This makes October's Belt and Road summit in Beijing an important litmus test that raises plenty of questions: Which world leaders will be in attendance? Which countries will snub the event? How will Xi set up the next 10 years? And what new projects might be announced on the sidelines?