Sept 12- Buonsera Mag
Day 201: Kharkiv attacks, Muzyka, Kherson, Zelensky response, Solovyev, Landsbergis, Putin and Russian reactions. Arts & Posts: Adveeda, Darth Putin, ISW, Kokcharov, Davis, Scherba, Arellino
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
I’ve been doing research all afternoon, so I apologize if this newsletter isn’t as complete as I’d like it. Thanks for your patience and for sticking with EuroFile!
Assessment on Kharkiv by Konrad Muzyka
Kharkiv Oblast is either fully liberated or will soon be liberated. I think that just as Russians could not recover from losses suffered north or Kyiv, which ultimately proved determinantal to their failures elsewhere in the second stage of this war.
I think the loss of equipment in Kharkiv may decimate Russian offensive combat potential. Or in other words, combined with the UAF initiative, with what they currently have, the Russian ability to wage any type of offensive is probably non-existent over the medium term (+6m).
It is now important to look beyond Kharkiv. UAF has the momentum to carry forward. The obvious choice is to move into the Luhansk Oblast. It's important to note that Moscow recognised LPR and DPR within their administrative borders. UAF could very soon enter this territory.
But, Moscow's response will be key. If there is none or it is muted, UAF, assuming it is attacking from the north, could reach the Lysychansk-Luhansk line very quickly.
LPR, apart from frontline areas, is probably empty of manpower. Mass round-ups that occurred over the past few months mean that there are no men to fight in Luhansk. Defences aren't echeloned either. A rout in LPR could be as fast as in Kharkiv.
WATCH THIS: Southern Command: Russian soldiers trying to negotiate their surrender. Nataliia Humeniuk, spokesperson for the southern command of the Armed Forces, told CH 24 that some Russian soldiers are trying to negotiate amid Ukraine's counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.
Official: five more villages liberated in Kherson oblast. Behind the scene, RU signal readiness to surrender. Maybe that’s why Putin/Kadyrov sent a new batch of “kadyrovets” to stand in the second line of defense and shoot whoever runs.
General Staff: Ukraine’s military repels 6 Russian attacks in past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces successfully repelled attacks near Novomykhailivka, Marinka, Krasnohorivka, Bakhmut, Mykolaivka Druha, and Maiorsk, Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 12.
It is official: Vysokopillya, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Myrolyubivka and Sukhyj Stavok have been liberated. The occupiers are preparing to "regroup" in the Kherson region as well. As in Kharkiv, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are helping them with this.
The continued allocation of forces to relatively small and insignificant settlements in Donetsk Oblast will likely harm their ability to defend against the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Stories we’re following…
Large parts of Ukraine in blackouts on Sunday night including Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv and Poltava after Russian cruise missile strikes on thermal power plants and stations.
Zelensky’s masterclass response to the Russian attack:
Do you still think we are one people? Do you still think you can scare us, break us, force us to make concessions? Don’t you really get it? Don’t you understand who we are? What we stand for? What we are about?
Read my lips: Without gas or without you? Without you. Without light or without you? Without you. Without water or without you? Without you. Without food or without you? Without you.
Cold, hunger, darkness and thirst are not as frightening and deadly for us as your friendship and brotherhood. But history will put everything in its place. And we will be with gas, light, water and food…and WITHOUT YOU.
Andrea Chalupa: How did Russia ever think they could defeat these people?
The UAF claims it has forced Russian forces from more than 20 towns and villages in the past 24 hours, according to a UA general staff Facebook post.
The liberation of settlements from the Russian invaders in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions continues. As previously reported, during the retreat, Russian troops quickly abandon their positions and flee deep into the temporarily occupied territories or into the territory of the Russian Federation. This trend persists. So, over the past day, the occupiers have taken away property and vehicles looted from local residents from Velikiy Burluk and Dvorichna settlements of Kharkiv oblast.
Intelligence: Command of Russia’s Western Military District dismissed after series of mass defeats. As Ukraine’s counteroffensive continues, Russia has changed the leadership of its army’s Western Military District, says Ukraine’s Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate.
Kirill Stremousov, who is one of the leaders of the Russian-imposed authorities in occupied Kherson. In his latest post, he has appeared on the Antonivskyi Bridge. He has posted that it has been struck again by Ukrainian forces, who he dubs “Ukronazis”, and he heaped praise on the Soviet Union. He writes:
Ukronazis continue shelling the civilian infrastructure of Kherson and the Kherson region. The shelling of the Antonivskyi Bridge continues. The bridge stands as a symbol of the reinforced concrete unity of a large and friendly country - the USSR. The city of Kherson has never been and will never be given to the Nazis.
Moscow’s leadership has remained silent on the defeats in Ukraine, with neither President Vladimir Putin or his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, making any comment as of Monday morning. However, its defence ministry said on Telegram that its forces in the Kharkiv region had “inflicted defeat on” Ukrainian units in Pristin, Boldyrevka, Sinikha, Beloe, Komarovka, Gorokhovatka, Kupyansk, Senkovo and Podvysokoye of the Kharkov region.
Dash Dobrovsky: The Kremlin has turned on Putin. “After several municipal deputies in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma to try the Russian leader for Treason, their colleagues in Moscow joined in and demanded he steps down because his views are 'hopelessly outdated.'"
David Patrikarakos: Pro-Russia Telegram channels continue to lose their mind over Ukraine's counteroffensive. In a post, they claim the town of Vovchansk was taken by "Nato forces" consisting of "blacks"& "English-speakers." Almost no "Ukrainian Nazis" there. Claims same is true in Kazachya Lopan.
On his Telegram, Kremlin chief propagandist, Solovyev, called for the execution of Russian commanders who allowed the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region.
Reuters reports that Xi Jinping will leave China for the first time in more than two years for a trip this week to Central Asia where he will meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Reuters: IAEA head says Ukraine, Russia interested in ‘ceasefire’ at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The UN’s nuclear agency chief Rafael Grossi said on Sept. 12 that both sides are “engaging” with the agency regarding a protection zone.
US Ambassador to Germany has urged Olaf Scholz’s government to “take more of a leadership role”, as calls grow for Germany to support Ukraine’s advances in the north-east by delivering tanks.
After praising Germany’s military and financial support for Kyiv, US ambassador Amy Guttmann told broadcaster ZDF “my expectations for Germany are higher”.
Oleksandr Scherba: you’re up shits creeks when…
Russian TV sends cavalry in. The "KGB veteran psychic" (I'm not kidding) Ivan Fomin predicts Ukraine's collapse in September.
PS. Russia's popular belief in psychics has been KGB's tool to manipulate the masses for a long time.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister FA, MP Lithuania
Putin’s genocidal plan to wipe Ukraine off the map has failed. He is in no position to negotiate. The war must end with his unconditional surrender.
Ukraine’s heroes have exceeded our expectations daily. Thanks to the inspiring leadership of Zelensky, Dmytro Kuleba, and Oleksii Reznikov and others the definition of impossible has been rewritten.
Ukraine has earnt nothing less than our full support in bringing Putin to justice for each and every crime he has committed. There can be no compromises, excuses or exceptions.
Let me be frank. It is now beyond doubt that Ukraine could have thrown Russia out months ago if they had been provided with the necessary equipment from day one.
If we had armed Ukraine faster, thousands of homes would have remained standing. Thousands of lives would have been saved. Thousands more children would now be safe with their parents. We must recognise the fact that appeasement did nothing to protect them.
The people of Ukraine have done more than enough to earn our respect. We have been humbled by their achievements. Now we must help them end this war swiftly and forever. Here’s how:
All stockpiles of western advanced armaments (ATACMS, tanks, fighter jets) must be made available to Ukraine.
We must commit to creating and enforcing safe zones around the territories of nuclear power stations, so Putin cannot use them as a weapon.
Clear red lines must be drawn and the consequences for crossing them should be made very clear to Putin, so he is deterred from making any desperate last moves.
The ICC and others must be quickly sent to liberated territories to investigate the crimes committed there.
Fast-track integration of Ukraine into NATO and the EU.
No more westsplaining. No more dithering. No more negotiations with terrorists. Those who doubted Ukraine’s strength should be apologising. Ukraine defended us all, even when some didn’t believe they could succeed. Now is the time for us to show our deep gratitude.
This is an interesting development. As per Julia Davis’s reporting for years, the Russian propaganda machine has always been the pipeline for Putin and his inner circle’s line. In this episode, there is a mix of views: total support for Putin’s action in Ukraine, critical of the retreat of Russian positions in Ukraine, and supportive of closer ties to Ukraine through respect for Ukrainian culture.
It is likely that this episode was a security valve for those who are critical of the Russian retreat. It provides a moment to vent and give the illusion of opposition. Nontheless, the propagandists (and thus the regime) have admitted to Russia’s disasterous military retreat.
Protests across Europe - gas prices
In a past post featuring a thread by Alex Alvarova, I was in complete agreement with Alex regarding the faux protests we are seeing now across Europe. We saw them kick off in Italy, then Prague and now Germany and Austria.
The Russians are not good fighters for several reasons, but they do excel in creating chaos within our countries through intelligence and information warfare operations. The Russians are trying everything they can to overturn the sanctions that the have been placed on them by the EU, the States and other countries. That’s what this is about.
Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak sees energy price related protests in Europe as part of Russia's "terrorist strategy".
Amid Ukraine’s startling gains, liberated villages describe Russian troops dropping rifles and fleeing- WaPo
“They just dropped rifles on the ground,” Olena Matvienko said Sunday as she stood, still disoriented, in a village littered with ammo crates and torched vehicles, including a Russian tank loaded on a flatbed. The first investigators from Kharkiv had just pulled in to collect the bodies of civilians shot by Russians, some that have been lying exposed for months.
“I can’t believe that we went through something like this in the 21st century,” Matvienko said, tears welling.
Politico- Elections in Sweden…
Swedes are braced for negotiations over who will lead their new government after a right-wing opposition bloc narrowly took the lead in Sunday’s general election.
While initially it appeared the incumbent center-left government was ahead, opposition parties supporting center-right Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson ended up securing 176 of 349 seats in parliament, while those supporting PM Magdalena Andersson won 173.
Meanwhile…in London…
King Charles III addressed both houses of parliament in Westminster Hall today, responding to messages of condolence from MPs and peers. He will then fly to Scotland as he embarks on his first tour of the U.K. nations as king, codenamed Operation Spring Tide.
This morning: The king and queen consort will be in parliament at 10 a.m. to receive and respond to addresses from both houses.
In the afternoon: After arriving in Edinburgh, King Charles will lead a procession taking the queen’s coffin up the Royal Mile to St Giles’ Cathedral, where members of the public will be able to pay their respects. King Charles will return to Holyroodhouse for an audience with First Minister Sturgeon before attending the Scottish parliament.
And…in Texas….
My final thoughts…
