Sept 12: E-Stories

Day565: 9/11 UADef Mariupol CombatSit RUdom BehindLines RUdom SOFCrimeaOp Dima ChinaSpies NorKor BEL GER Musk EUComm BRI NATO MOR A&P: UKDef Rybar UADef Peterson FriedO'Toole TimesRad Aslund Davis

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Please visit the 9/11 Memorial and Museum website and view the commemoration ceremony. Each and every person who died on that day of terrorism is named, one by one.

There were many more people, over 4,000, that died after 9/11 due to exposure to the site. They were fire fighters, police officers, and first responders.

Stories we’re following…

Overnight on Sunday, a total of 12 Shahed-drones were launched towards the southern regions of Ukraine. All of them were shot down. Russia also launched a Kh-31P and a Kh-59 missile. Information about these launches and possible damage are still being clarified.

Serhiy Lysak, the governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast, reported Monday that overnight there were no casualties in the region, despite Russian attacks. On Telegram he posted to say that some residential buildings and gas pipes were damaged after “the enemy attacked Dnipropetrovsk region with attack drones, guided missiles from tactical aircraft, and artillery”.

Morning news: Russian drones, missiles launched toward Kryvyi Rih, explosions recorded. Russian drones and missiles were reported to be heading toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's Kryvyi Rih, officials said on Sept. 11, as explosions were heard in the city.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in an interview with The Economist rejected any compromises with Putin and added that the war will continue as long as Russia is on the sovereign territory of Ukraine. "Putin will only negotiate with himself," he added.

Zelenskyy will talk with Biden once again about the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine and hopes to get it in autumn, he said during an interview with CNN. "I think Biden can change this page of the war. He already did it once with HIMARS. It was very important," Zelenskyy added.

Combat Situation Up-date

Suspilne: Ukraine has regained control of the Boyko oil and gas drilling platforms off the coast of Crimea in the Black Sea, which Russia occupied in 2015, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) reported.

The Petro Godovalets and Ukraina drilling platforms, as well as the Tavrida and Syvash drilling platforms, are now under Ukrainian control. During the operation, the special forces managed to seize a stockpile of helicopter ammunition of the NAR type and the Neva radar, which can track the movement of ships in the Black Sea. The video released by the Special Operations Forces of the GUR on the operation.

Russian milblogger news: WarGonzo reports that the AFU has entered Andriivka. The AFU has invested in cutting off the supply route to this small village, which now seems to be paying off.

An adviser to the acting head of the Russian-controlled occupied region of Donetsk has told Tass that Ukrainian forces have transferred a lot of equipment to Avdiivka.

Source: War Mapper

"A part of Opytne near Avdiivka has been liberated and there is partial success in the Novomaiors'ke direction in the Donetsk region," Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar reported.

Ukraine’s military claimed on Monday it expects Russia will launch a big mobilisation campaign soon to try to recruit hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers from inside Russia and occupied Ukraine. The mobilisation campaign could target between 400,000 and 700,000 recruits, it said, citing different estimates.

“A mass forced mobilisation of the population is expected soon in the Russian Federation and temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine due to the occupiers’ catastrophic losses,” Reuters reports the General Staff said in a battlefield roundup.

Behind the Lines

• Spokeswoman for the 'Southern' command Natalya Humenyuk, said that over the past 24 hours the AFU destroyed 6 Russian boats which tried to restore lost positions while maneuvering among the islands along the occupied left bank of the Kherson region.

• After the Russian pilot Maksym Kuzminov flew the Mi-8 helicopter to Ukraine, the number of Russian soldiers who want to surrender to the Armed Forces of Ukraine increased by 70%, GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov said.

• Nat’l Resistance Centre: Every collaborator who agreed to help the Russians organize fake elections in the temporarily occupied territories will be held accountable. The names of all the traitors are known, and none of them will escape responsibility for crimes against Ukraine. Each “member of election commissions” and observer deprived himself of a free future and sentenced him to imprisonment. The Ukrainian underground, which reports traitors, helps in identifying criminals. More than 1,400 people involved in the organization of the “voting” have already been identified.

• In order to increase voting turnout, the Russians impeded exit from cities and villages.

• In Belarus, a military group is being created on the model of the “Wagner group”: The Belarusian GuardService. They train in Marina Gorka, Minsk region, at the «Dynamo» special training center. The main task of the military group is to intervene against the opposition in the event of an uprising against Lukashenko. «GuardService» was created by a special decree of Lukashenko in 2019 and constantly cooperates with terrorists from Wagner.

Meanwhile in Russia

Newsweek: A key Russian general who Putin promoted this week views the invasion of Ukraine as a mere "stepping stone" to further conflict with Europe. In a recent interview with Moscow's state-run Russia-1, a clip of which circulated widely on social media Saturday, Lt Gen Andrey Mordvichev said he believes Putin's war will last quite a long time and expand in the future.

"I think there's still plenty of time to spend. It is pointless to talk about a specified period. If we are talking about Eastern Europe, which we will have to, of course then it will be longer," the general said.

"Ukraine is only a stepping stone?" the interviewer then asked.

"Yes, absolutely. It is only the beginning," Mordvichev responded, who went on to say that the war "will not stop here."

Russians should be banned from transferring large amounts of rubles abroad, as they then exchange them for dollars and euros, said Andrey Kostin, chairman of the board of VTB.

“You just need to understand that we do not live in peacetime. <…> For example, loopholes remain. Let's say you decide to transfer money abroad: restrictions have been introduced on $1 million per month, and in rubles - transfer as much as you want. What happens next? You transferred a billion to Armenia, and it is immediately returned in exchange for dollars. This opportunity needs to be closed, for example,” said Kostin (quoted by RBC).

Monique: Of course, he’s talking about ALL those people with millions of rubles in their bank accounts. The reality is that the average monthly wage in Russia stands at $790.00/month (June 2023). But there are variations based on where you live. In the Chechen Rep, the average monthly wage is roughly $270.00/month while in ‘rich’ St Petersburg, it’s a little over $600.00/month.

The government has planned a further reduction in the price of Russian gas for China, Reuters reports , citing internal documents of the Cabinet of Ministers prepared as part of the formation of the budget for 2024. Next year, the discount for China will increase to 46%, according to government projections: gas from the Power of Siberia will cost $271.6 per thousand cubic meters, and for Turkey and Europe - $481.7.

Kremlin spokesman, Dmity Peskov’s comments on Monday morning:

• Russians who left after the start of the war will return to the country against the backdrop of a changing economic situation, but for those who have become “enemies of our country” there is hardly a place here;

• There are no prerequisites for negotiations with Ukraine;

• Putin and Erdogan agreed to continue contacts on the grain deal, but there is no new date for negotiations.

Russia is sticking to plans to reduce its budget deficit in the coming years, the finance minister Anton Siluanov said on Monday. Reuters reports he said the country will ensure that key areas, including national security and the armed forces, remain well funded.

Brazilian President Lula has withdrawn his statement that no one will arrest Putin upon his arrival in Brazil. Now Lula said that he "doesn’t know whether Brazilian justice will arrest Putin." He added that decisions are made not by the government, but by the judiciary.

“If Putin decides to go to Brazil, it’s the justice system that will take the decision over whether he should be arrested, not the government or congress,” Lula told reporters. “I didn’t even know this court existed,” he added of the ICC.

The EU Commission has confirmed that Russians are prohibited from entering EU member states using personal cars registered in the Russian Federation, since this will be regarded as a prohibited import, RBC reports, citing clarifications from the  European Commission.

“It does not matter whether the vehicle is used for private or commercial purposes as long as it falls under the customs codes listed in Annex XXI (including code 8703) originating in or exported from Russia. Most often this applies to vehicles with Russian license plates and registered in Russia,” the document says.

Julia Davis-Meanwhile in Russia: propagandist Yulia Vityazeva denounced additional travel restrictions imposed by the EU, but assured citizens that it's only a matter of time before everyone tearfully invites the Russians to come back for a visit.

South Korean media has reported that a North Korean train presumed to be carrying leader Kim Jong-un has departed for Russia for a possible meeting with Putin. Citing unidentified South Korean government sources, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported that the train likely left the North Korean capital of Pyongyang on Sunday evening and that a Kim-Putin meeting is possible as early as Tuesday. Putin, meanwhile, has already arrived on his two-day trip to Vladivostok to attend the Eastern economic forum (EEF).

Council of Europe denounces Russia's sham 'elections in occupied parts of Ukraine. The Council of Europe issued a statement on Sept. 10 denouncing the sham "elections" that Russia held in the occupied parts of Ukraine.

"We strongly condemn the illegitimate sham 'elections' that took place on 8-10 September 2023 in the territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation," read the statement.

Reuters reports that EU sanctions against those responsible for elections held in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine are conceivable, a German foreign ministry spokesperson said at a press conference in Berlin on Monday.

The Venice Commission’s opinion on Ukraine’s education law and its national minorities law do not reflect the Orbán government’s allegations and opinion. Hungarians in Zakarpathia are free to speak their native language in public and private.

Allied News

The German government has commissioned Rheinmetall to supply 40 more Marder IFV's to Ukraine. Work is already underway at Rheinmetall’s plants in Kassel and Unterlüß. Germany will provide an additional €20m in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said on Monday during a visit to Kyiv.

Ukraine’s foreign minister said he discussed air defence supplies with his German counterpart in Kyiv on Monday and that Ukraine needed more systems to protect its ports from Russian airstrikes to ensure grain could be exported, Reuters reports.

“You will do it anyway, it’s just a matter of time, and I don’t understand why we are wasting time,” he said in response to a question at a news conference in Kyiv.

The joint Houses of the US Congress have voted in favor of the Black Sea Security Act. The US recognizes that the Black Sea region has become a place of Russian aggression and that Russia's repeated illegal, unprovoked and violent attempts to expand its control to the access of the Mediterranean Sea through the Black Sea pose a threat to the national security of the United States and NATO. The Act emphasizes that it is in the interests of the United States to maintain and strengthen ties with the Black Sea countries

WSJ: Kyiv expects to use F-16 fighter jets in combat by winter. The Ukrainian military's top brass expect to use U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets in combat as early as this winter, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 10. According to Kyiv's military leadership, this optimistic schedule could give Ukrainian troops a significant new advantage on the battlefield next year.

NATO will hold its largest exercise since the Cold War. The alliance's military will practice repelling Russian aggression. 32 states, over 50 ships and about 41,000 military personnel will participate in the maneuvers. Aviation will carry out from 500 to 700 combat sorties. The exercises will take place in February and March in Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries.

Head of the German Foreign Ministry Annalena Baerbock came to Kyiv with an unannounced visit. This is her fourth visit to Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war. Upon her arrival, the minister promised continued support for Ukraine on its path to EU membership but also insisted on further reforms, namely regarding the fight against corruption, Die Welt reported.

Around the World

More than 2,497 people died in a devastating earthquake in Morocco. A 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck about 47 miles southeast of Marrakesh late Friday. More than 2,400 other people were injured. Buildings continued to crumble through the weekend. Rescue workers have struggled to reach the mountainous and rural area at the quake’s epicenter.

The whole country of Morocco has mobilised to help communities devastated by the earthquake, a British journalist living in the High Atlas Mountains has told the BBC.

Alice Morrison spoke to BBC News a little earlier from the market town of Asni, where tents have been erected by the government to house those who have lost everything in the quake.

A field hospital has been set up nearby and the army has mobilised; as one soldier told Morrison, "this is our national duty, but it's more than a duty".

Helicopters can be heard flying overhead, trying to reach isolated villages deeper in the mountains.

Nations are woefully off track to meet goals set by the 2015 Paris agreement to limit the planet’s warming, according to a U.N. report released Friday. This summer was hotter for almost everyone in the world because of climate change.

Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs Ramin Toloui will travel to Japan and the Republic of Korea, September 11 to 14. Assistant Secretary Toloui will meet with government, business, and academic partners to discuss strategies to deepen economic cooperation and strengthen commercial ties in the Indo-Pacific.

BMW will make a multimillion-pound investment in its electric Mini production in Britain, the business ministry said, a move which secures 4,000 jobs.

Reuters: Embattled developer Country Garden faces a new round of voting by creditors to extend several debt maturities, after having avoided default at the last minute twice this month to bring some respite to the crisis-hit Chinese property sector.

Times Radio: “Our society is penetrated at almost every level, not just by the Chinese.” China is just the most “prolific” nation spying on the UK, but there are more “hostile agencies” penetrating British society, says former Military Intelligence Officer Philip Ingram.

Nolan Peterson: “Russia broke their lives forever.”

In March 2022, I interviewed four Ukrainians who'd managed to escape Russia's massacre of Mariupol. Some of their words are below.

Stas, 29:

"Relatives, acquaintances, and neighbors — these people are buried in their yards and in mass graves. Some have to be left just on the street. They have remained lying outside in common areas for the entire time of the war."

"We wanted to bury our friend, but the hospitals wouldn’t accept any bodies. The morgues were overflowing, the bodies of people were lying in the street or in supermarket baskets. We wanted the best for our friend. Therefore, we were able to leave his body in one of the pits at a service station and covered him with sand. It was too dangerous to go to the burial place outside of the city."

"The Russians do not spare anyone. They shoot at schools, maternity hospitals, universities. They use delayed-action bombs on ordinary residential buildings to reach the basements where people are hiding. They do not follow any rules, neither military nor moral. They know exactly where they are shooting, and what they are doing."

"This is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. We will never forgive or forget what Russia has done."

Karina, 28:

"Bodies were everywhere. Some people managed to bury their neighbors under explosions, some simply sought shelter from the frequent airstrikes. It all started with artillery, Grad rocket attacks — after that airstrikes, which are repeated every two to three minutes. And street fights were added."

"This is the genocide of the Ukrainian people."

Tymur, 37:

"What the Russians call a 'special operation' is a terrible war in Ukraine and Russia is the aggressor and initiator of hostilities [...] they themselves drop bombs on Ukrainian maternity hospitals, schools, kindergartens, and hospitals — on ordinary civilians."

"We decided that we can no longer stay — this is direct death. We decided to try to get out. We made it. But hundreds of thousands of Mariupol residents remained there, under the rubble, under incessant airstrikes, hungry and frozen."

Diana, 28:

"People in Mariupol are now dying not only from airstrikes, but also from hunger and thirst. It used to be possible to draw water from wells, but they were also bombed. Those wells that remained intact are now outside the access zone of residents. Because airstrikes happen every two to four minutes, people are simply too afraid to look for water, which is so needed right now."

"The corpses are just lying on the streets. There is no possibility for their burial, since you can be killed, too, right beside the bodies."

"Now it is difficult to count the victims and those who died under the rubble. Since there is no way to clear this rubble, people are buried alive."

"Those people who managed to evacuate from Mariupol are difficult to talk to now. People stutter, they have shell shock and tremors. Russia broke their lives forever."

Five ways the West might increase pressure on the Russian economy—Daniel Fried & Brian O’Toole

Monique: The authors offer five possible ways to tighten the screws: better export controls, a tighter oil-price cap, confiscating frozen Russian reserves, a full financial embargo, and following the money.

On Wednesday, Russia’s central bank announced new measures to speed up its sale of foreign currency ten-fold to prop up the wobbly ruble. Although the drop in the ruble’s exchange rate since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is an imperfect indicator of true financial health, there is no denying that the West’s financial sanctions, export controls, and other economic measures have had a significant impact on the Russian economy. Russia’s macroeconomic woes are only increasing as its export revenues—especially hydrocarbons—continue their decline and its internal economy is increasingly fixated on wartime production at the expense of real economic development.

But can it last? As harsher sanctions have been imposed, Russian evasion efforts have stepped up. To increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime further, or even to maintain that pressure as Moscow refines its evasion measures, the West would need to intensify sanctions and other tools of economic statecraft. The crumbling Russian macroeconomy and unstable domestic political sphere, following Wagner Group founder Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s failed coup and subsequent death, may entice Western policymakers to take the opportunity to knock Putin and his power centers further off balance.

These economic statecraft measures make up just one policy avenue of several in the fight against Russian aggression—including military, economic, and diplomatic backing for Ukraine—and are unlikely on their own to force Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine in the near term. But they can cause problems for the Russian system, including diminishing wartime production.

Below are five core areas in which economic pressure could be intensified further. [continue reading]

Signing off for the day…