Sept 14 Buonasera Mag
Day 203: Izyum, Zelensky, Kherson, Kharkiv, Melitopol, Crimea, Kuleba, UA GDP, Scholz, QE2, RU $300m, UA World, Davis, Tenzer, Freedman, MacKay, ISW, Rudolf
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Ukrainian forces have liberated over 300 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast since Sept. 6. Deputy MoD Maliar said on Sept. 13 that 3,800 square kms of Kharkiv Oblast had been liberated during Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky announced yesterday that the country is in full control of more than 4,000 square km (1,500 square miles) of territory that was once held by Russia. He also said that an additional 4,000 square km was being stabilized.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine captured thousands of Russian occupiers, including high-ranking officers, in the Kharkiv region.
The Russian ambassador to UN, Vasily Nebenzya, called for UNSC extraordinary meeting to discuss Ukraine’s “illegal takeover of Russian arms and techniques in Kharkiv province.”
Governor: Mobile internet cut off in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast. Russia ordered the local mobile operator to cut the remaining residents off mobile internet for "security reasons," Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai said on Sept. 14.
Mayor: Russian forces retreating from occupied Melitopol to Crimea. Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol city in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said that columns of Russian military hardware were detected further south in Chonhar, a village in Kherson Oblast at the entrance to Crimea.
The Main Directorate of Ukraine Intelligence: the military units of the Russian Federation are canceling the dispatch of units to Ukraine due to the mass refusal of personnel to participate in combat operations.
Departure from the temporarily occupied Crimea can be carried out only by agreement with a military registration and enlistment office. The innovation is introduced from September 19.
Deputy Prime Minister: Russia asked Ukraine for negotiations amid counteroffensive. Olga Stefanishyna told France24 that Russian officials had reached out to Ukraine to negotiate in recent days, a move she believes is aimed at stopping the rapid Ukrainian advance.
Kuleba: Peace talks with Russia are being held only on the battlefield. Ukraine doesn't reject the idea of peace talks in principle, but will only partake as far as they concern the complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an interview with RBC Ukraine. Kuleba added: "The more victories Ukraine achieves, the more attention will be paid to our efforts and the more motivated our partners will be to support Ukraine."
Government expects Ukraine’s GDP to rise by 4.6% in 2023. However, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine's economy next year will largely depend on the course of Russia's war. He added that the GDP could fall by as much as 0.4% or grow by as much as 10% in 2023.
EU High Representative Borel called on EU countries to double military aid to Ukraine. "They have achieved much more success than even we ourselves expected, and therefore the strategy we chose from the beginning is correct. Now we need to redouble our efforts, not hesitate".
Russia-led military alliance holds meeting to discuss renewed clashes between Azerbaijan, Armenia. The Collective Security Treaty Organization of Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Tajikistan, held an extraordinary meeting on Sept. 14.
In a 90-minute call with Putin, Scholz demands 'complete withdrawal' from Ukraine and demands Putin 'fully implement' Ukraine grain deal.
Russia, Belarusians and Burma have been excluded, at the behest of the British government, from invitations to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.
Queen Elizabeth II will today make her final journey from Buckingham Palace along The Mall to the Palace of Westminster, where she will lie in state in Westminster Hall until Monday so hundreds of thousands of members of the public can troop past her coffin to pay their respects.
RFE/RL, Von Der Leyen Says EU Cannot Appease Russia Over Ukraine, Putin Will 'Fail'
Speaking at her annual state-of-the-union speech on September 14 in Strasbourg, France, von der Leyen said the bloc's solidarity with Ukraine was "unshakeable," and must remain that way.
"This is not just a war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. This is a war against our energy, a war against our economy, a war against our values and a war against our future. "
“This is about autocracy against democracy. With the necessary courage and with the necessary solidarity, Putin will fail and Ukraine and Europe will prevail.”
Atwood & Cole, Russia has spent over $300 million on influencing foreign elections since 2014, US officials say- CNN (important read)
“In its review, the IC found that Russia has covertly transferred over $300 million dollars, and planned to covertly transfer at least hundreds of millions more to foreign political parties, officials and politicians in more than two dozen countries and across four continents in this period,” the official told reporters, adding that “Russia likely has transferred additional funds covertly in cases that have gone undetected.”
Julia Davis, Kremlin TV Airs Call for Russia to Admit ‘Serious Defeat’- The Daily Beast
Brutal realizations have been raining upon the Kremlin’s top propagandists—and when it rains, it pours. The same pundits who used to threaten NATO countries with nuclear strikes are begrudgingly acknowledging that Russia’s Armed Forces have suffered a series of humiliating setbacks in Ukraine.
Appearing on Russia’s NTV show The Meeting Place on Monday, policy analyst Viktor Olevich surmised: “Unfortunately, the situation is difficult. Can we say that the Russian forces moved closer to meeting the goals and carrying out the tasks set by the president at the beginning of the special operation—or did they get further away? Obviously, we’re now further away.”
Nicolas Tenzer, An Inconvenient Truth: We Are Still Not Helping Ukraine Seriously- Tenzer Strategics
On the other hand, they do not formulate as such war aims that would be these or, at least, such military objectives. They even leave these “war aims” in a certain vagueness, whereas those of Putin—to destroy Ukraine as a country and to exterminate the Ukrainian people as a people, in other words as a free people—are perfectly clear. One could add—and this is obviously the crux of the problem—that they have not defined any strategic objective towards the Russian regime. Putin is able to play on this and to exploit this conceptual and strategic vacuum in his propaganda.
RFE/RL- Few Pupils, Fewer Teachers: Russia Struggles To Set Up 'Potemkin' Schools In Occupied Ukraine
With Primorsk under Russian control as Moscow pushes ahead with its military invasion of Ukraine, only half of the dozen local elementary schools opened their doors on September 1.
Many teachers and families in Primorsk have fled the Russian occupation, while others have refused to cooperate with the Moscow-imposed authorities despite threats, pressure, and bribes.
It is a phenomenon across the occupied territories.
An Explainer- Italy election: who’s running, who will win, and why does it matter?- The Guardian
The vote could have far-reaching consequences not only for Italy but for the EU, even though Meloni’s alliance with Matteo Salvini’s hardline, anti-immigration League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia has emphasised its commitment to the bloc and Nato.
Meloni’s “post-fascist” party has surged from 4% of the vote in 2018 to nearly 25%. That may be only a point clear of Enrico Letta’s Democratic party (PD), but her three-party coalition is polling at a total of about 48%, against the centre-left alliance’s share of about 29%.
Lawrence D Freedman, Britain Adrift- Foreign Affairs
Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role.” What might have appeared as an unexceptional observation by former U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson, made during a speech at West Point in December 1962, created an uproar in the United Kingdom. London’s Daily Express spoke of a “stab in the back.” British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan felt compelled to defend his country’s honor, writing in an open letter…
