Sept 15 Buonasera Mag
Day 204: UA on the ground, Kryvyi Rih, Solovyev, Zakharova, Xi, Bank of RU, Prigohzin, EU-UA, Trump, Florida, Sweden elex. A&Ps: Atkins, ISW, Schmitt, Whitmore, Davis, Ivashyn, Bremmer, Lendon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky nightly address: “Today was almost a Ukrainian day in Brussels. For the first time in the history of the European Union, a country from outside the EU was actually represented at a special session of the European Parliament during the annual State of the EU report — this is our country … I thank Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, I thank all our friends in the European Union for their unwavering support.”
Russian missiles at Kryvyi Rih were directed at hydraulic structures, causing enough damage that the water level of the Inhulets River was rising and posing a serious threat to the city. This aligns with Ukraine’s concerns that Russia will continue to target Ukraine’s infrastructure in retribution for its success in regaining occupied territory. Kryvyi Rih is Zelenskiy’s home town.
A vehicle crashed into Ukrainian President Zelensky’s car as it was traveling in a motorcade in Kyiv in the early hours of this morning. Zelenskyy, who was returning to the capital after a surprise visit to Izium.
Rossiya 1 propagandist Vladimir Solovyov proposes a Russian-led international coalition in Ukraine Russia would partner with Syria, African countries, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Iran and North Korea, like the international brigades that fought Franco in the Spanish Civil War. Russia is struggling to enlist foreign fighters on its behalf and rebuffed prospective recruits from Ethiopia.
Zakharova said that if the US decided to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, that would cross a “red line” and the US would then become “a party to the conflict”, Reuters is reporting.
Putin and Xi Jinping are meeting in a summit that comes amid increasing animosity with the West and challenges to their agendas. In a rare admission, Putin said he was aware of China’s “questions and concerns” about the war, but assured Xi he would address them all in their first face-to-face meeting since the Feb. 24 invasion.
The Bank of Russia has proposed a new way around Western financial sanctions, which complicate international settlements for Russian companies: Foreign banks may be allowed to open branches in Russia. But, of course, such an opportunity will be given only to banks from friendly countries.
Tass- In a pointed rebuke to the US, he told attenders: “Attempts to create a unipolar world have recently taken on an absolutely ugly shape and are absolutely unacceptable for the vast majority of states on the planet.”
Prigohzin is recruiting from the prisoner population to beef up his Wagner units. The prisoners are amongst the most violent crimes. He says in his address to them: “I take you alive. I don't always bring you back alive. anyone who comes to fight in Ukraine, including rapists, will be free upon return. The deserters will be shot. You have 5 minutes to decide.”
Another death in Russia. Putin ally, Vladimir Sungorkin, editor-in-chief of Komsomolskaya Pravda. The cause of death of the propagandist was heart attack and later stroke. His colleague describes the sudden, strange death while he was on a business trip with him.
In a quiet rebuke to Germany, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, addressed European Union member states who were not fulfilling their commitments to equip Ukraine.
To all member states: it’s absolutely vital and necessary to support Ukraine with the military equipment they need to defend themselves. They have proven that they are able to do that if they are well equipped. This is the general recommendation to all member states.
The EU has earmarked €150m to aid internally displaced people in Ukraine get shelter through the winter, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said at today’s press conference in Kyiv.
Prisoners at Penal Colony No. 6 in Russia’s Vladimir region, where jailed opposition politician Alexey Navalny is serving a nine-year sentence, have reportedly been banned from looking at Navalny. Associates of Navalny described the new policy on their YouTube channel, Popular Politics, after they learned about it from relatives of prisoners in the facility.
NYT: New York’s attorney general rejected a settlement offer in her investigation into Donald Trump and his business, setting the stage for a lawsuit. The attorney general, Letitia James, is also considering suing at least one of the former president’s adult children as part of her Trump Organization inquiry.
The office of the Governor of Florida said it flew about 50 migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, escalating a tactic by G.O.P.-led states to protest illegal immigration. Ruth Ben Ghiat: “MAGA Republicans used human beings as propaganda tools. DeSantis also used his own infant as a prop when he wanted Trump's approval.”
Swedish Elections
After three days of meticulous vote-counting, a coalition of right-wing parties emerged victorious from Sweden’s general election on Wednesday, with a narrow three-seat advantage. The far-right Sweden Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi roots, secured the largest number of votes and seats in that alliance.
That said, the center-right Moderate party is expected to lead a coalition government, with Ulf Kristersson the prime-minister-in-waiting.
There are questions as to the stability of this new government going forward, and how much it will position itself on questions such as immigration reform and rule-of-law procedures against Hungary when it takes over the presidency of the Council of the EU from January.
Tatiana Stanovaya, Retreat near Kharkov. Will military defeats lead to domestic political- Carnegie Endownment
Putin has miscalculated Ukrainian resolve and been reluctant to commit to the hawks’ all-out war (dismissing the significance of things like the front lines and when annexation referendums might take place) because he fundamentally believes that Ukraine is nothing more than “Russian land” temporarily occupied by “anti-Russian forces” who are doomed in the end, perhaps not even on the battlefield. In other words, Putin expects to win simply by waiting for the collapse of the West. In the meantime, the Russian authorities will have to manage the pro-invasion community more gently than it handled the liberal opposition.
Brad Lendon, The rot runs deep in the Russian war machine. Ukraine is exposing it for all to see- CNN
Many of Russia’s problems – poor and inflexible leadership, sour troop morale, inadequate logistics and hardware beset by maintenance issues – have been evident since the beginning stages of the war more than seven months ago.
The Russian military’s hollow core – including tanks that were easy prey for Ukrainian ground troops and trucks that didn’t have the right tires to traverse Ukraine’s landscape – was quickly exposed by tactics ill-suited to the blitzkrieg Putin had planned.
Brian Whitmore, A Ukrainian Victory Would Liberate Eastern Europe- Foreign Policy
As Russia’s full-scale reinvasion of Ukraine approached the half-year mark, Volodymyr Zelensky had victory on his mind.
“We can and should think only about how to win,” the Ukrainian president said in his Aug. 18 address to the nation.
And on the six-month anniversary of the invasion on Aug. 24, a date that coincided with Ukraine’s Independence Day, Zelensky spoke even more forcefully about victory—and spelling out exactly what that would mean.
RFE/RL- A Bridge Too Close: Boats Replace Cars As Ukrainian Rockets Hammer Crossings In Russian-Occupied City (photo reportage)
Russian-imposed authorities in Kherson claim multiple precision rocket strikes on the city’s bridges have had no impact on the Kremlin’s invasion logistics in southern Ukraine. Pictures taken on September 8 appear to suggest otherwise.
Hannah Devlin, Imperial College to shut joint research ventures with Chinese defence firms- The Guardian
The Avic Centre for Structural Design and Manufacturing is a long-running partnership with China’s leading civilian and military aviation supplier, which has provided more than £6m to research cutting-edge aerospace materials. The second centre is run jointly with Biam, a subsidiary of another state-owned aerospace and defence company, which has contributed £4.5m for projects on high-performance batteries, jet engine components and impact-resistant aircraft windshields. The centres’ stated goals are to advance civilian aerospace technologies, but critics have repeatedly warned that the research could also advance China’s military ambitions.
Zeeshan Aleem, The real meaning of a striking new letter from former military officials- MSNBC
Part of the likely reason the letter is being written now is that these former defense officials believe — as many political analysts also do — that Trump still poses a threat to the democratic project, most tangibly through a third presidential run. Maintaining a democratic government requires civilian and military leaders to be “vigilant and mindful,” they write.