Sept 16: Saturday Stories
Day569 ShamElexObservers RUattacks Khmelnytskyi Andriivka Budanov CombatSit KimShoigu RUdom HUN SLO Baerbock US CND SKor BEL EU EE China A&P ISW UKDef Matviichuk Gic Scherba Insider Qizi Davis Darth
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Monique: I’m travelling! E-Stories will go on a brief hiatus. I will put out a post if there is something important breaking but will focus on my family during the break.
In the up-coming week, Olga and I will be holding our Lounge with Kremlin File Members and EuroFile subscribers on Wed at 6pm CET. Please look for the invite in your inboxes.
Kremlin File’s episode 5 will be out on Thurs Sept 21 featuring Julia Davis and her analysis of Russian propaganda, its structure, and strategic goals. E-Stories will be back at the end of September.
Russian propaganda cannot work without the enablers, shills, pro-Kremlin assets in the West. Some of these are named in the post below. They acted as ‘election observers’ in the Russian occupied territories of Ukraine.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks kill 1, injure 8. Russian forces carried out attacks against at least 10 oblasts over the past day, killing a child and injuring eight people, local officials reported early on Sept. 15.
Air Force: Russia tried to destroy Ukrainian bombers in overnight strike. Russia fired 17 drones overnight in the Khmelnytskyi region, home to the Starokostiantyniv airbase on Sept. 15 was targeting Ukrainian bombers in response to an attack against a Russian shipyard in Sevastopol earlier this week, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said.
Ukraine’s Intelligence Chief Budanov on the fear of escalation: so much of the discourse around the war is framed in a Russo-centric or Western bias. Listen to Budanov’s answer to the question: Are you afraid of escalation?
Combat Situation Update
President Zelenskyy’s evening address:
There is a significant and much-needed result for Ukraine in the Bakhmut region: our soldiers liberated Andriivka. The 3rd Assault Division, all the forces involved, the headquarters, the commander, General Syrsky - guys, thank you all!
Our active actions continue in the districts of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. The 36th separate brigade of marines operates very powerfully in the Opytne and Vodyane directions. Thank you guys!
General Staff confirms liberation of Andriivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine has liberated Donetsk Oblast's village of Andriivka, located south of Bakhmut, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Sept. 15. The general staff said of the battle around Bakhmut:
“In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy does not abandon the attempt to break through the defence of the armed forces of Ukraine in the Bohdanivka area.
In their turn, the defence forces of Ukraine during the offensive actions had partial success in the area of Klishchiivka.
During the assault operations they had success and mastered Andriivka, causing the enemy significant losses in manpower and equipment.”
The Importance of Andriivka- a post from Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade from Bakhmut area:
Why was Andriivka so important for us? First of all, Andriivka means full control over the railroad, which is a support line for further offensive. It is a necessary foothold for further advancement, as the task of Ukrainian forces in this area is to surround Bakhmut, and without Andriivka it is impossible to achieve this. The fighting for this settlement was very difficult. The enemy was constantly moving reserves, because for them even the thought of losing Bakhmut is a nightmare. They killed so many of their personnel here that it is impossible to explain it logically. Many people did not believe that we could accomplish this task. But the Third Assault Brigade did it, proving its strength once again. And first of all, it was possible thanks to our fighters.
Britain’s most senior military officer, Sir Tony Radakin, said that Ukraine “continues to hold the initiative, it is pushing Russia back” in a short assessment of the current state of the fighting.
ISW: Russian State Duma Deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev complained about lying within the Russian military and highlighted the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses against Russian helicopters.
ISW: The Russian MoD continues efforts to assume control over the Wagner Unit operations in North Africa and may have assigned former commander of the Aerospace Forces (VKS) Sergei Surovikin to this task.
This is the second fire in two days in Samara, Russia: a factory is on fire.
A warehouse with electrical equipment caught fire in Rostov-on-Don as well.
A shopping center caught fire in St. Petersburg during the night Sept 16.
A Ukrainian sea drone damaged the “Samum” small Russian missile ship in an attack at the entrance to occupied Crimea’s Sevastopol Bay on Thursday and the vessel had to be towed away for repairs, a Ukrainian intelligence source said on Friday.
Satellite images appear to show the dismantling of a Wagner unit base in Belarus. The images of activity in recent weeks showed tents being taken down at the Tsel military base in Mogilev region, and may indicate the winding down of the Russian mercenary company’s presence in the country after a brief mutiny inside Russia.
Behind the Lines
Military: Russia accidentally drops aerial bomb on occupied Nova Kakhovka. Russian forces accidentally dropped an aerial bomb on occupied Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast, causing casualties and damage in residential areas, spokesperson of Ukraine's Southern Operational Command Natalia Humeniuk said at a press briefing on Sept. 15.
Shoigu and Kim Jong-un arrived at the Pacific Fleet frigate "Marshal Shaposhnikov" in Vladivostok. The North Korean dictator is given tours there.
Monique: In convo with Ruslan Trad the other day, he pointed out that North Korean intelligence must be delighted to be given access to areas they had never seen before.
Julia Davis: Describing Kim Jong Un as "a dude with a square head," who is capable of anything, Sergey Mikheyev talks about various ways Russia could use North Korea to cause trouble for America — and how Russia could benefit from cheap and obedient North Korean labor.
Monique: It would be an absolute mistake to think that Putin, Russia’s leadership and other authoritative opinion makers and propagandists in any way consider North Korea and North Koreans to be their equals. In speaking with colleagues from neighbouring nations, the Russians had a slur word for them, and do for every nation. Talk to anyone who comes from a country that had lived under Russian rule and they will tell you the same.
Notice here that the North Koreans are seen as a labour force as are the Chinese and anyone else. They are never meant to have positions of power, which are left to the Russian security services.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russian MoD Sergei Shoigu said on Friday that the Russian navy has received 2 new ships this year, and is to receive another 12 by the end of 2023. The figure is significantly lower than the 30 new ships that in July the president claimed would be arriving.
Lukashenko told Putin on Friday that the country has recently supplied 60,000 tons of diesel and 60,000 tons of petrol to Russia, and is ready to further increase shipments.
Francis Scarr: Following reports that UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles were used in yesterday’s attack on Russian naval vessels in Sevastopol, Vladimir Ovchinsky claims on state TV that Britain started both world wars and that Zelenskyy is an agent of MI6
Monique: Zelenskyy is not an agent. The Russians are running wild with accusations because sensitive targets are getting hit in the Black Sea.
Military intelligence: Chechen warlord Kadyrov in critical condition. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has confirmed that Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov is in critical condition due to serious illness, SBU Spokesperson Andriy Yusov told the Ukrainian news outlet Obozrevatel on Sept. 15.
Monique: This is the fourth time Kadyrov says he’s dying. These death vigils usually coincide with moments when he’s travelling or meeting with someone secretly.
According to Hungary’s FM, Péter Szijjártó, the whole world is suffering from the consequences of the war not because Russia attacked Ukraine, but because Europe globalized the conflict. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine believes that the EU should demand an explanation from Hungary why it spreads disinformation against the European Union in the interests of Russia.
Russia expelled 2 US diplomats accused of working with a Russian national who is accused of collaborating with a foreign state. The US said the move was unprovoked and wholly without merit.
Slovakia has expelled a diplomat based in Russia’s embassy, the Slovak foreign ministry said on its website on Thursday. The ministry said: “The reason is his activities, which were in direct violation of the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations.”
Monique- Fun Fact: There are some EU member states (Slovakia, Bulgaria to name two) that often share Hungary’s pro-Kremlin positions but are not public about them, and use Hungary as their mouth-piece. Usually these public statements are coordinated between them.
Allied Support
A Belgian government official said on Friday it expects the G7 to announce an indirect ban on Russian diamonds in the next two-to-three weeks.
German FM Annalena Baerbock on Fox: Germany’s FM sent a clear message directly to the US Congress and the Republicans and called for further aid to Ukraine. “Ukraine must win this war.”
White House: Biden, Zelensky to meet in Washington next week. President Zelenskyy will meet with his American counterpart Joe Biden in Washington on Sept. 21, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said at a press briefing.
The US plans to increase monthly production of 155 mm artillery shells over the coming years to 100,000 in 2025, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer said on Friday.
“We’re going to be at 100,000 per month in 2025. We were at 14,000 per month 6 or 8 months ago, we are now at 28,000 a month today,” Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer said at a conference on Friday.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that a new military aid package for Ukraine is expected.
"We are always preparing a new military package. We do this every couple of weeks. There will be an announcement of additional weapons and capabilities somewhere next week."
South Korea concerned over Russia-North Korea arms talks, hints at sanctions. South Korea grows worried due to military cooperation talks between Russia and North Korea and is not excluding the possibility of unilateral sanctions against the two countries, the Yonhap News Agency reported on Sept. 15, citing South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin.
Minister: Belgium to train Ukrainian pilots, provide F-16s for training. Belgium has confirmed its participation in the international coalition to train Ukrainian personnel on F-16 fighter jets, Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder said in a statement on Sept. 15.
European Commission ends embargo on Ukrainian grain. The European Commission said it has not extended the import ban on Ukrainian grain products in five EU countries beyond Sept. 15. Shortly after the announcement, the Polish government's spokesman cited Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki saying that Poland would extend the restrictions unilaterally, as Warsaw warned before.
UK designates Russia's Wagner Group as terrorist organization. The U.K. government has officially declared the Wagner Group a terrorist organization, which gives the group the same status as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have.
Finland bans entry for Russian-registered vehicles. Finland bans entry to cars under Russian registration only days after the Baltic countries instituted the same measure, the country's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen announced on Sept. 15, the Finnish public broadcaster Yle reported.
Estonia’s Outgoing Military Spymaster on Russia’s War—Insider
It was the afternoon of February 24, 2022. Around 10 hours had passed since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” against Ukraine, but the fighting was already inching dangerously close to Kyiv. Russian forces were trying to take control of Hostomel Airport at the north-western outskirts of Ukraine’s capital. Columns of tanks and other heavy equipment were pouring in from Belarus, one of Russia’s staging grounds, 80 miles away.
Roughly 500 miles to the north of Hostomel, at Kresty Airbase in Pskov, Russia, 18 Il-76 transport planes started their engines and headed towards the takeoff track. The planes were full of perhaps Russia’s most elite airborne troops from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division. The one thousand elite troops loaded onto the planes were highly trained, many of them seasoned fighters who’d fought in the First and Second Chechen Wars. Their objective was to fly to Kyiv and take control of the Ukrainian government.
The Il-76s were already halfway towards Hostomel Airport when Christo Grozev, The Insider investigative journalist and editor who has unmasked Russian assassins and saboteurs across Europe, first drew attention to them. “The only plausible goal would be to capture and subordinate Kyiv (and install a puppet government) today,” Grozev tweeted. “While the world is watching and doing almost nothing.”
In fact, one country’s intelligence service was watching and doing something.
Two sources confirmed to The Insider that Estonia’s military intelligence agency, officially known as the Military Intelligence Centre of Estonian Defence Forces, had sent an advance warning to their Ukrainian colleagues even before the 76th Guards boarded the airlifters.
Great program