Sept 17 Saturday Edition
Day 206: Izyum, Sloviansk, RU navy, Melitopol, Biden, Spain, Mexico UN, Czech spies, Draghi. A&Ps: Avdeeva, Grozev, Matviichuk, Orban, Davis, Tokariuk, Liubakova, Corfe, Rudolf, Nato bands
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Izyum: almost all the exhumed bodies in Izyum had signs of violent death, Ukraine’s regional administration chief said of the mass burial site discovered after Kyiv’s forces recaptured the east Ukrainian town. Exhumers had uncovered several bodies with their hands tied behind their backs, and one “with a rope around his neck”, Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv regional administration, said on Friday. “Among the bodies that were exhumed today, 99% showed signs of violent death,”.
The Czech Republic, who currently hold the EU presidency, have called for a “special international tribunal” after a mass grave was discovered in Izyum.
Russians shelled Sloviansk power plant today, - head of Donetsk Military Administration Pavlo Kyrylenko.
Navy: 4 Russian warships equipped with up to 32 Kalibr missiles are combat-ready in Black Sea. Ukraine's Naval Forces said that Russia has up to six warships in the Sea of Azov and another five cruise missile carriers in the Mediterranean Sea.
Russia is likely to stubbornly defend the Luhansk oblast in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region amid Kyiv’s counteroffensive, but it is unclear if Moscow’s forces have “sufficient reserves or adequate morale” to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault, the UK ministry of defence says.
Mayor: Russian military base destroyed near occupied Melitopol. The city's mayor Ivan Fedorov said on Sept. 17 that a fire erupted at a base in the area of Molochnyi Lyman in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, destroying the facility.
Podolyak: Russian strikes on Ukraine's critical infrastructure may push West to send more arms to Kyiv. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the President’s Office, said in an interview with Interfax Ukraine news agency that the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast and Russian attacks on Ukrainian thermal power plants and dams may push the West to supply anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems to Kyiv.
Russian promotional video for recruitment
Zelensky to address UN General Assembly, despite Russian opposition. UN member states voted on Sept. 16 to make an exception to allow President Volodymyr Zelensky to deliver a pre-recorded statement.
CNN: Some US officials disappointed about sanctions' impact on Russian economy. “We were expecting that things like SWIFT and all the blocking sanctions on Russia’s banks would totally crater the Russian economy,” CNN quoted one of the U.S. officials. Russia’s economy was expected to shrink by nearly 15% earlier in the year, but between April and June, it declined by about 4% as compared to the same period last year.
President Biden has warned Putin not to use chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine. The US president was asked in an interview with CBS News what he would say to Putin if he was considering using the weapons. Biden said: “Don’t. Don’t. Don’t. You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.”
General Staff: Spain sends 5 cargo planes with artillery ammunition to Ukraine. In total, Spain has delivered 75 pallets of ammunition for large-caliber artillery systems to Ukraine over the last "several days," according to Ukraine’s General Staff. Spain is also currently delivering military cold weather gear to Ukraine.
Three Russians excluded from EU sanctions list. Saodat Narzieva, a sister of the oligarch Alisher Usmanov; Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who died in April, and Olga Ayziman, the ex-wife of Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman, have been removed from the list. On Sept. 14, the EU extended restrictive measures against the country for another six months, until March 15. The sanctions apply to 1,206 individuals and 108 legal entities.
NABU: Ukrainian MP Derkach put on wanted list, accused of treason. Lawmaker Andrii Derkach has received at least $567,000 from Russia’s law enforcement to discredit Ukraine in the international arena, according to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau.
Mexico will present a peace plan for Ukraine to the UN general assembly next week. Agence France-Presse reports that the proposal is for Pope Francis, the UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, and the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to form a dialogue and peace committee.
Mykhailo Podolyak has responded: “Peacemakers” who use war as a topic for their own PR are causing only surprise. @lopezobrador_, is your plan to keep millions under occupation, increase the number of mass burials and give Russia time to renew reserves before the next offensive? Then your “plan” is a plan.”
Opinion The E.U. must punish Viktor Orban, Hungary’s authoritarian leader- WaPo
A swath of American conservatives have lionized Viktor Orban, but on Thursday, Europe’s elected parliament shined a clarifying light on the Hungarian tyrant, voting overwhelmingly to denounce the “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy” he has built through bigotry, corruption and contempt for democratic norms. That condemnation was too long in the coming and is unlikely to faze Mr. Orban. But the European Union’s executive arm has a better way to get his attention: cutting off Hungary from the billions of dollars in aid on which his regime depends. It is now preparing to do just that. Better late than never.
John Haltiwanger, The army Putin spent 2 decades building has been largely destroyed in Ukraine, and Russia's 'strategic defeat' could threaten his grip on power- Yahoo News
"Strength is the only source of Putin's legitimacy," Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, told The New York Times. "And in a situation in which it turns out that he has no strength, his legitimacy will start dropping toward zero."
Gallyamov told The Times that if Ukrainian forces "continue to destroy the Russian army as actively as they are now," it could "accelerate" calls from elites for Putin's successor to be chosen.
On this day…
Olga Tokariuk hosts a discussion on universal jurisdiction and its importance
High-ranking Czech ministry official leaked classified information to Russian intelligence- Expats_cz
A long-time employee of the Czech Foreign Ministry cooperated with the Russian intelligence service SVR, leaking secret information to the organization, the Czech server Deník N reported today. The reports were confirmed by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, and the Czech counter-intelligence service BIS.
“Russian intelligence exploited his weakness for women and money. Gradually, the Czech diplomatic worker began to demand information from Czech diplomacy, including classified information. He repeatedly accepted money for handing them over," said one of the server's diplomatic sources.
Ollie Corfe, Russian meddling in Brexit claims explored as critics say UK a 'target' of Putin- The Express
The revelation reignites fears that Russian money may have swayed the outcome of the 2016 Brexit referendum.
The ISC report into Russian interference in British politics published in 2020 described the UK as one of Russia's “top targets” as it was “seen as central to the Western anti-Russian lobby”.
According to the official, the US intelligence community is holding confidential briefings with select countries due to the sensitivity of the data – the UK likely among them.
Rudolf & Morley, Covert Foreign Money: Financial Loopholes Exploited by Authoritarians to Fund Political Interference in Democracies- ASD
In addition to more widely studied tools like cyberattacks and disinformation, authoritarian regimes such as Russia and China have spent more than $300 million interfering in democratic processes more than 100 times spanning 33 countries over the past decade. The frequency of these financial attacks has accelerated aggressively from two or three annually before 2014 to 15 to 30 in each year since 2016.
PM Draghi’s presser- Salvini & Conte
Italian PM Mario Draghi weighed in on the US intelligence reports, which have not been declassified, and speaks out against Salvini and former M5S PM Conte’s alignment with Russia.
“I asked myself: ‘How is it that one chooses one’s partners?’ Surely on the basis of a certain ideological commonality, he said, proudly recalling that he had put Italy back on a staunch pro-European and Atlanticist course.
However, he added, “one should also keep the Italians’ interest in mind. One should ask oneself, ‘Which partners help me protect the interests of the Italians best? Who matters most among these partners?’ Give yourselves the answers,”.
“Sanctions work”, said PM Draghi. “Otherwise, it would be hard to explain some of Putin’s recent behaviours.”
“You cannot vote to send weapons and then say you disagree. Or, even worse, take pride in the Ukrainian advance after you have voted, and are, against sending arms. How’s Ukraine supposed to defend itself, with its bare hands?” This message had an unmistakable addressee: Giuseppe Conte, leader of the 5 Star Movement, who had done exactly that.
Draghi’s phone call with Sec of State Anthony Blinken on the US intelligence brief regarding Russian funding of political parties and entities in the EU and elsewhere:
“The most natural thing to do was to ask him what he knew,” he explained. In talks between the Italian agencies, “American intelligence – as opposed to the State Department – confirmed that it had no evidence of covert Russian funding of candidates and political parties competing in the current electoral round.”
I’ve already written about Russian economic and political capture in Italy. It seems obvious that the Russians won’t open a bank account and deposit money to a specific politician or political party.
It’s done through a myriad of associations, businesses, university programmes, journalists and think tanks to name a few- a policy brought in by Yuri Andropov in the 1980s, but the Soviet friendship in Italy had already been well established after the WW2.
The fact remains that no Italian government up to today has formed a commission to investigate these matters: Giorgia Meloni, who is set to gather the most votes on September 25, adamantly opposed a motion to investigate Russia’s overt intelligence operation during the pandemic crisis in Italy.
Draghi’s presser came on the day when the Italian Republic joined other states in invoking Art. 63 to investigate Russia for crimes of genocide in Ukraine. Draghi’s statements have that much more weight as they coincide with significance of this document.
The reality is this for Putin now…
NATO bands celebrate Ukraine
