Sept 26 Buonasera Mag
Day 216: UA air force, NASAMs, nukes, Japan, RU mobilisation, ROC, Bulgaria, Dagestan, Meloni, US-UK sanctions, Isreal, EU energy-A&Ps-Michel, Ramani, Davis, Avdeeva, Zelensky, Patrikarakos, Kelkar
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian Air Force destroys 8 Russian combat drones on Sept. 25. Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat reported that Ukrainian military is studying the strengths and weaknesses of Iranian Shahed-136 drones used by Russia.
102nd brigade of Ukrainian army is fighting heroic battles around Lyman. Russian forces have considerable losses.
President Zelensky confirms that Ukraine has received NASAMS (National Advance Surface-to-Air Missile Systems) air defense missiles from the US.
Russian command is sending just-mobilized servicemen without training directly to front line - Ukraine's General Staff Russia is replenishing with untrained servicemen the units that have suffered losses.
Lavrov pledges 'full protection' using nuclear weapons to defend annexed regions of Ukraine, including territory "further enshrined" in Russia's constitution in the future.
The US authorities told Moscow "at a very high level" that the consequences of Russia's use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences, and Washington would give a decisive response.
After Putin's nuclear threats, Japan stops exporting chemical weapons goods to Russia. The Japanese government has banned the export of materials that could be used for chemical weapons production to 21 Russian organizations, including science laboratories, AP reported.
Western capitals have privately warned the Kremlin of their devastating military response should Putin use a nuclear weapon, multiple officials told the Financial Times, as militaries step up their preparations for a potential attack.
Russia started mobilization in occupied Crimea. 90% of people who received enlistment note are Crimean Tatars [15% total pop], native people of Crimean peninsula, journalist Sevgil Musaieva reports. “For 8 years Russia repressed Crimean Tatars, now decided to get rid of us this way”, says Musaieva.
General Staff: Russia sends newly mobilized conscripts directly to frontline. Conscripts do not undergo any military training before being sent to the war against Ukraine, Ukraine's General Staff said.
Putin ordered Kadyrov to suppress the protests in Dagestan. Now, in the unrecognized Ichkeria, a special detachment is being prepared, which will then be sent to Dagestan for demonstrative reprisals against the Dagestan people who opposed Moscow.
Novaya Gazeta, citing a Kremlin source, reports that 261,000 men have left Russia since Putin announced mobilisation on Wednesday.
Head of Russian Orthodox Church says sacrificing life in war against Ukraine ‘washes away sins.’ Patriarch Kirill, the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, said during a sermon that when a soldier, driven by a sense of duty, dies on the battlefield, his death is “equal to the sacrifice.”
Julia Davis: Women in Makhachkala, Dagestan are desperately protesting against the war and mobilization: “Why are you taking our children? Who attacked whom? Who attacked Russia? We are the ones who attacked Ukraine. Russia attacked Ukraine. No to war!"
Protests against the mobilisation order to recruit more people for Russia’s army appear to be continuing in the Russian republic of Dagestan, with videos showing standoffs between police and the public. Dagestan’s capital, Makhachkala, appears to be at the centre of the protests, with some roads blocked. The area borders Azerbaijan and Georgia to the south. Georgia has closed its borders today.
Meduza: 11 military enlistment offices, 6 administrative buildings set on fire in Russia since mobilization start. Russian news outlet Meduza reported that at least 11 military enlistment offices had been set on fire in Russia since Vladimir Putin announced mobilization.
Bulgaria says all new EU sanctions on Russia should be scrutinized. Bulgaria could join Hungary in delaying future sanctions packages, as pressure to punish Russia for its annexation referenda in Ukraine grows.
Ukraine: Russia forces POWs in Olenivka prison to vote in fake referendum. Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation reported that the Russians are creating a Cossack battalion out of Ukrainian POWs and forcing them to take part in a sham annexation referendum.
Putin expected to address the Federal Assembly on September 30. If the 2014 annexation of Crimea is a model, he may announce a “treaty” annexing occupied Ukrainian territories then.
Russia announces that it is recruiting North Korean workers to develop the Far East Up to 50,000 North Koreans could arrive in Russia.
In the coming days, the USA will announce new sanctions against the Russian Federation due to the holding of so-called "referendums" on the territories of Ukraine occupied by the Russian troops.
Kazakhstan won't recognize Russia's pseudo-referendums in Ukraine. Kazakhstan has no intention of recognizing Russia's sham referendums in Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, according to Aibek Smadiyarov, Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry spokesman.
Large queues form at public service offices in Kazakhstan as Russians apply for tax numbers so they can get bank cards.
Israel will treat 20 Ukrainian soldiers who have been injured in the war with Russia, according to the Israeli ambassador to Ukraine.
Poland will provide education in Ukrainian language to Ukrainian refugee children.
The Netherlands will increase its military support for Ukraine as well as impose new sanctions against Russia, its prime minister, Mark Rutte, has said.
Serbia does not recognize the results of "referendums" in the occupied territories of Ukraine, stated the head of the country's Foreign Ministry, Nikola Selakovich.
North Korea fired a ballistic missile towards the sea off its east coast on Sunday, ahead of planned military drills by South Korean and U.S. forces involving an aircraft carrier and a visit to the region by U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris.
The UK announced 92 new sanctions in response to Russia’s regime of illegal referendums in Ukraine. The package of penalties target those behind the sham votes as well as oligarchs and board members. Sanctions have also been placed on oligarchs – including the ‘kings of Russian real estate’ God Nisanov and Zarakh Iliev – with a net worth totalling £6.3bn, and board members from state organisations.
Liz Truss’s spokesman has declined to comment on today’s market moves, following the hammering given to UK government bonds this morning, and the pound’s slide to a record low overnight.
Experts from EU capitals met in the Council Working Party on Energy to fine-tune the legislative proposal to blunt the impact of high energy prices via windfall profit taxes and electricity revenue limits.
Germany turning to UAE and France to Qatar to diversify their gas imports. France’s Total Energies a deal to invest in the exploitation of a new gas field in Qatar to produce liquefied natural gas that it will ship to LNG ports such as Marseille.
Letter to EU energy ministers: “The price cap that has been requested since the beginning by an ever increasing number of member states is the one measure that will help … mitigate the inflationary pressure,” it reads. “The cap should be applied to all wholesale natural gas transactions, and not [be] limited to import from specific jurisdictions.”
The EU has frozen €14.5 billion in assets belonging to sanctioned oligarchs and entities, Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders told POLITICO in an interview — around half the total private assets frozen by the G7. Just six countries — Austria, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland and France — accounted for 90 percent of the seizures
Zelenky’s address to Russian conscripts
Mironov & Itskhoki- demographic impact of mobilisation
The Russian economists Maxim Mironov and Oleg Itskhoki (of IE University and UCLA respectively) have published an important thread estimating the likely demographic impacts of mobilisation on Russia. A translation follows.
The Meloni Coalition wins in Italy
Certified numbers aren’t in yet. The electoral projections point to the rad-right coaltion at 43.8%- 235 seats in the Chamber (lower house) and 44%- 115 seats in the Senate. That’s a solid majority.
The ECR party, of which she is the head in the EU, has congratulated Meloni on her win as have Orban, Le Pen, Zemmour, and the German AdF. Across the pond, Glenn Greenwald- a pro-Putin shill- also sent his heartfelt congrats.
Speaking of Orban, he is introducing a referendum at home on sanctions on Russia. What will Meloni do in Italy?
The sanctions were introduced in an undemocratic way, because it was the decision of the bureaucrats in Brussels, for which the European people are paying. We need to know the opinion of the people. For the first time in Europe, in Hungary, we will ask for the opinion about sanctions. National consultations will be launched, within which the Hungarian people will be able to express their opinion whether they support them and whether they are in favour of introducing new ones.
David Patrikarakos, Will Putin’s gamble pay off?-Unherd
“Let that motherfucker send as many slaves as he wants. It won’t make any difference. We will send them back to Russia in boxes, like we did to the ones he sent already.”
“Ivan” pauses. He is involved in civilian resistance activities in Southern Ukraine, and he has pointed views on the occupiers, borne from first-hand experience. “Well, actually, the Russians generally just leave their dead behind in the field. So they don’t go back to Russia, in fact. We fertilise our soil with them.”
Vivek Y Kelkar, China's web- The Cosmopolitan Globalists
Just two days before the September 15 meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand, the Chinese government’s mouthpiece, Global Times, announced that Xi Jinping’s presence at the meeting—his first foreign trip since the pandemic began—would “inject more Chinese wisdom” into the SCO, which remained “cohesive and attractive to potential new members.”
CEPA Forum- Sept 27-29
The agenda for the 14th Annual CEPA Forum is now live! We kick off on September 27 by exploring the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on regional defense and global security. We continue on September 28 by highlighting the continued fight for democratic values in the face of authoritarian threats. We conclude on September 29 by focusing on the leaders and organizations building innovative solutions to emerging issues in technology.