Sept 28: E-Stories
Day582 RUattacks Kherson Mykolaiv CombatSit BehindLines Moscow Kursk Binance Grannies Sokolov UN GER US BEL POL NOR UEFA EE XEU BUL HUN NATO Trump A&P Avdeeva Davis UKDef ISW XBBC Kolga Vogel
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Overnight Russian attacks: Russian troops shelled the Nikopol with heavy artillery: two people were injured. Six houses, a private enterprise, a car, power lines were damaged. Russian military aircraft struck near Mykolaivka in the Kherson region.
Russian forces launched 44 air strikes and 27 multiple launch rocket system attacks today, and engaged Ukrainian troops in 17 combat engagements, the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said in their evening briefing.
“Unfortunately, the Russian terrorist attacks have killed and wounded civilians,” the general staff said in its update. “Residential buildings, a hospital and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed or damaged.”
Russian army shelled the Kherson region 119 times on Sept 26: 12 people were injured. The Zaporizhzhia region was attacked 13.
In the evening, Russia struck two companies in Kherson simultaneously. Firefighters, having arrived at the scene of the fire, began work, but the insidious enemy fired repeatedly. That is why the rescuers had to return to extinguishing several times after the shelling subsided.
Authorities in Sevastopol have issued another air raid alert, Russian-installed regional governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said on Telegram. Traffic on the Crimea bridge linking the Russian mainland with the Crimean peninsula has been temporarily suspended.
Navy: 7 vessels have left Odesa through temporary Black Sea corridor so far. The Navy official clarified that this number includes five vessels that were docked in Odesa ports before the start of the full-scale invasion and two ships that have recently entered and left.
Ukraine hits Russian command post in occupied Kherson Oblast. A Ukrainian HIMARS strike hit a temporary Russian command post in the occupied territory of Kherson Oblast during a meeting of Russian officers, Hromadske media outlet reported, citing its source in Ukraine's Security Service.
The Ukrainian Achilles company drone strike destroyed two Russian tanks and a howitzer worth more than $7 million from Sept 18-25, Mykhailo Fedorov, Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Education, Science and Technology Development and Minister of Digital Transformation, announced this on Telegram, Ukrinform reported.
"The operators of the 'Army of Drones' have created a real hell for the occupiers. The strike company of the Achilles UAV of the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade hit T-80 and T-72 tanks and a D-30 howitzer," the statement said.
Explosions rang out in Shchelkovo near Moscow during the night on Sept 26-27, causing a fire.
Large fire reported near Moscow. Russian-backed Telegram channels posted a photo of a strong fire in the town of Shchyolkovo near Moscow around midnight on Sept. 27. The fire allegedly erupted in an industrial area west of the city.
Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol: "The attack on Sevastopol was carried out by Ukraine in close coordination with American and British specialists," Spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova said in a press briefing.
Blackout Kursk region, Russia: An unmanned aerial vehicle launched by the SBU security service operatives dropped an explosive device on an electrical substation in the village of Snagost, Kursk region, leaving seven settlements without electricity, says a Ukrainian source.
Combat Situation Update
UK Defense Ministry: Strikes on Black Sea Fleet hinder Russia's blockade capabilities.
Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russia's Black Sea Fleet caused "almost certainly severe but localized" physical damage, likely leaving the fleet capable of performing basic combat tasks such as cruise missile attacks and local security patrols, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Sept. 26.
However, the Russian fleet's ability to continue wider regional security patrols and enforce its de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports will likely be reduced, the ministry wrote in its latest intelligence update.
Noel Reports: Bakhmut-Kurdyumivka Direction:
The AFU expelled Russians east of the railway tracks near the entrance of Andriivka. Considered under AFU control now
North of Klishchiivka, the area west of the railway tracks is now fully under AFU control.
General map of the ground in the south- Zaporizhzhia Direction:
Some Wagner soldiers have left Belarus and returned to the front in Donetsk oblast, a Ukrainian military spokesperson told RBC-Ukraine. “We confirm that the ‘Wagners’ are present on the territory of the Eastern Group of Forces,” Illia Yevlash, spokesperson of the Eastern Group of Forces, said.
“These are servicemen of the ‘Wagner’ PMK who were on the territory of Belarus. Now their camps are being disbanded there. There were about 8,000 of them there. Now some of these militants have gone to Africa, and someone have renegotiated contracts with the ministry of defence of the Russian Federation and returned here, to eastern Ukraine, to take part in hostilities - both as instructors and as military personnel.”
Pres Zelenskyy’s morning briefing: “I have received reports on the situation at the front, the supply of equipment and ammunition, and intelligence data. We are making progress in the Donetsk sector. There are other plans that are being implemented.
I received a report on the situation in Kherson region. The enemy continues to terrorize the territories it can reach. Twenty-six subversive bombings over the last day. The consequences are being eliminated, people are being helped. I instructed to find additional solutions to stop this terror.
"The enemy in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction is forming new assault squads, in particular 12 companies numbering approximately 2000 people. They will try to punch holes in our defense," Eastern Grouping spokesperson Yevlash said.
Official: Russia starts building railway links to occupied cities in Donetsk Oblast.
Russia started building direct railway links to the occupied Ukrainian cities Mariupol, Volnovakha, and Donetsk, which could decrease Moscow's logistical dependence on the Crimean Bridge, Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to Melitopol's exiled mayor, said on Sept. 27.
The official noted that if these efforts are successful, Russia will connect the railway line of Mariupol-Aslanove-Kalchyk-Volnovakha in occupied Ukraine with the Russian cities of Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don.
Meanwhile in Russia
Cryptocurrency platform Binance will exit Russia, selling its operations in the country to new crypto exchange CommEX. Binance will have no ongoing revenue split from the sale, nor any option to buy back shares in the business.
Olexandr Scherba: A map of where the leading putinists sent their children to study.
The Kremlin is now sending the Grannies to threaten the West: it’s the Babushka squad. Russian propaganda targets every age group. We are monitoring videos on social media that are supposed to attract young people- high schoolers and university students put out by Russian aligned accounts. The Grannies are advocating for a strong Putin image, while the videos for young people focus on the ‘peace’/anti-American narrative.
Russia shows alleged footage of Black Sea Fleet commander previously reported killed. Russia's Defense Ministry published a video on Sept. 26 of a meeting between military leadership with Admiral Viktor Sokolov, previously reported by Ukraine as killed, joining the meeting through a video call. Sokolov, the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet whom the Ukrainian military reported as killed in a Sevastopol strike on Sept. 22, is only seen joining the meeting online and does not speak throughout the video. A second video was put out by Zvezda News showing Sokolov receiving awards and speaking to Russian officers.
(Fun Fact: Zvezda News media was allowed to operate in Italy unchecked. It is the official media outlet of the Russian Armed Forces.)
BBC: Russia seeks to rejoin UN Human Rights Council. Russia seeks to rejoin the UN Human Rights Council after being expelled last year because of its invasion of Ukraine, the BBC reported on Sept. 26, citing a position paper distributed by Russian diplomats to UN members
Bring Kids Back UA: As part of the implementation of the Bring Kids Back UA action plan approved by President Volodymyr Zelensky, the "If You Know, Tell" information campaign was launched to motivate people living in Russia to oppose the forced deportation of Ukrainian children and to facilitate the return of young Ukrainian citizens to Ukraine.
Belarus Foreign Minister: Entering war alongside Russia hard to imagine. In an interview with AP on Sept. 26, Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik stated that he can't envision a scenario in which Belarus would enter the war in Ukraine alongside Russian forces.
Monique: We talked about this in Kremlin File Lounge last week. Lukashenko wouldn’t dare put Belarusian soldiers to the test because he has no guarantee that they would fight for Russia, and more importantly, it would give Ukraine the opportunity to knock out launching pads for Russian missiles and other infrastructure the Russian forces are using in Belarus.
«Svitlyachok» Kindergarten in the Pskov region of Russia.
Behind the Lines
Footage emerged of a headmistress of one of the schools in temporarily occupied Enerhodar in Zaporizhzia region, reporting to the new educational authorities of the Russian Federation. She says that Ukrainian schoolchildren refuse to stand to the Russian national anthem and ask teachers very provocative questions about Russian history. Additionally, local directors (collaborating with Russia) are unhappy with the quality of education since teachers from Dagestan and Buryatia arrived.
National Resistance Center: Russian forces impose curfews, censorship in occupied Donetsk Oblast. In Russian-occupied areas of Donetsk Oblast, occupation authorities have introduced a curfew and begun censoring communications, the National Resistance Center reported on Sept. 25. The Center reported that Denis Pushilin, the head of Russia's proxies in occupied Donetsk Oblast, has demanded military censorship of phone calls and written correspondence.
Ukraine and Poland are working on the creation of a large military medical hub, the purpose of which will be the exchange of experience, as well as the provision of practical assistance, director of the Military Medical Institute in Warsaw, General Gelerak, said to Ukrinform.
Polish investigation concludes Ukrainian air defense missile fell on Polish soil last year. Polish experts had concluded that the projectile that caused the death of two people in Poland's Przewodow last year was a stray Ukrainian anti-air missile launched to intercept a Russian strike, the Rzeczpospolita newspaper reported on Sept. 26, citing its sources.
Ukraine’s security forces claim to have arrested two men in the Kyiv region who were assisting Russia. They cite an attack on the city on 21 September as one of the occasions on which the men helped Russia identify targets in the city. President Zelenskyy commented on the arrests on Telegram: it was “a good signal to all traitors: there will be retribution.”
Gerashchenko: “He refused to surrender into captivity at Azovstal and walked 200 km to get to safety. This is not a movie plot but a real life story of a Ukrainian Defender Oleksandr, callsign "Skhid" ("East").”
Allied Support
Lithuania has delivered sets of radar equipment destined for the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Irish government will allocate an additional €1 billion to accommodate Ukrainian refugees. The state pays for housing for over 70,000 Ukrainians.
Estonia has joined Germany in a joint procurement programme for ammunition for Ukraine.
"I am very, very glad that Estonia has just decided to join the German framework contracts for ammunition," German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said at a meeting with his Estonian counterpart Hanno Pevkur in Tallinn yesterday.
NATO will increase the production of ammunition both for Ukraine and for NATO member countries that have transferred a significant share of their weapons to Ukraine. US Ambassador to NATO Julian Smith said during the "Win the war. Win the Peace" forum.
There has been some discussion in the think tank community on conditions for American aid to Ukraine. A White House representative clarified to Ukrainian journalists that American aid to Ukraine would not be contigent on domestic reforms.
"This list is not a condition for future military assistance. It is aimed at helping Ukraine on its way to European integration," a White House representative explained to Ukrainian journalists.
The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending up to over 30 more Abrams to Ukraine in addition to the previously promised 31 American tanks of this type.
New US sanctions hit Russian, Chinese companies over war involvement. The U.S. government imposed fresh sanctions on five Russian and 11 Chinese companies for their role in supplying drone technology components used in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported on Sept. 25.
Zelensky appoints Andriy Shevchenko as adviser. President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Andriy Shevchenko, an ex-professional footballer and manager, as an external advisor, according to a presidential decree published on Sept. 26.
Shmyhal: Government implements 7 steps needed for EU accession talks. The government has approved the "Unity in Diversity" State Target Program, and therefore has implemented all seven steps recommended by the European Commission for European Union accession talks to begin, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Sept. 26.
Norway to donate $92 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The latest support is meant to ensure access to "necessary protection" and "vital assistance" to civilians in the upcoming winter months as Russia is expected to escalate its attacks on the country's infrastructure.
Ukraine to boycott UEFA football competitions involving Russia. The Ukrainian Association of Football (UAF) condemned on Sept. 26 the decision by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) to return Russia's U17 teams to international competitions and said Ukraine would boycott games involving Russia.
Several European countries to boycott UEFA matches involving Russia. Several more European countries have announced they would not participate in any upcoming football matches against Russia. Official announcements from Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, England, Northern Ireland, Denmark, and Sweden stated that their football teams would not take part in any competitions involving Russian teams.
Roberta Metsola believes that the leaders of the European Union should speed up the process of accession to the EU of Ukraine and the countries of the Western Balkans. This will help prevent the growth of Russian influence in these regions.
EU Commission names social platform X leading disinformation source. EU Commission Vice President Vera Jourova noted that compared to other major players such as Facebook, Google, YouTube, TikTok, or LinkedIn, the X platform has the largest ratio of misinformation and disinformation posts.
Turkey to ratify Sweden's NATO bid if US approves F-16 sales to Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the Turkish parliament would ratify Sweden's accession to NATO if the U.S. approves the sale of its F-16 fighter jets to Ankara, Reuters reported on Sept. 26.
Germany investigating possible Russian war crimes in Ukraine. The German Federal Prosecutor’s Office has launched an investigation into the alleged shooting of civilians, including a German citizen, by Russian troops in Kyiv Oblast at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the German news agency Tagesschau reported on Sept. 27.
UN Commission-Human Rights Council: According to the head of the independent international commission of inquiry into violations in Ukraine, Erik Møse, in some cases torture was used with such cruelty that it led to the victim's death. "The team has gathered evidence that indicates that the use of torture by the Russian military was widespread and systematic," Mr. Møse emphasized.
State Department responds to Russian efforts to rejoin UN Human Rights Council. U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller stated in a press conference on Sept. 26 that Russia's actions in Ukraine undermines its rightful inclusion in the UN Human Rights Council.
Divided opinions in Poland as regards arms supplies to Ukraine. About half of Polish citizens (47.2%) positively assessed the recent statement by the country's Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, that Warsaw will not be donating weapons to Ukraine due to its own rearmament campaign.
Monique: I’d like to dig into this story to see what kind of information is being put out my election candidates on social media and the other channels of influence. Since March 2022, there has been a campaign in Italy to increase the number of people in the so-called ‘peace movement’, demanding the unilateral disarmament of Ukraine. This is all to the benefit of Russia.
Bulgarian spies arrested in UK hired by Russian intelligence asset- Insider. Five Bulgarian spies arrested in the United Kingdom worked for Ian Marsalek, who is affiliated with Russian intelligence.
In 2020, The Insider, Bellingcat, and Der Spiegel learned that Marsalek fled to Russia on June 19, the day after auditors discovered more than $1.5 billion missing from Wirecard's balance sheet. Further inquiries established Marsalek's close ties with Russian intelligence: he had been in contact with the GRU military intelligence since 2015, among other things, helping Russian spies to establish PMCs in Africa, obtaining information through bribed Austrian security officials, and performing other sensitive assignments.
It is noted that Marsalek started working with Rusev back in 2014. As an expert in the field of digital surveillance, Rusev equipped him with devices with encrypted communication tools, and recruited into his team at least four other Bulgarian nationals, training them in the use of spy equipment and encrypted communications.
Around the World
Erdogan: Turkey to ratify Sweden's NATO bid if US approves F-16 sales to Ankara, reports Reuters.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the Turkish parliament would ratify Sweden's accession to NATO if the U.S. approves the sale of its F-16 fighter jets to Ankara, Reuters reported on Sept. 26.
According to the Turkish president, the Biden administration is linking the F-16 sale to Ankara's approval of the Swedish NATO bid.
"If they (the U.S.) keep their promises, our parliament will keep its own promise as well. Turkish parliament will have the final say on Sweden's NATO membership," Erdogan said.
Aid money for Ukraine has become a bargaining chip for US congressional Republicans, as lawmakers negotiate on a bill to extend government funding beyond the end of the month and avoid a government shutdown. The House speaker, Kevin McCarthy, said that he would not support the part of the bill that addresses funding for Ukraine if there also wasn’t something included that would address the immigration crisis at the Mexican border.
Armenian Health Ministry: 125 killed in Nagorno-Karabakh fuel depot explosion. The explosion at a crowded fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh on Sept. 25 has killed at least 125 people, Armenian Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan said at a news conference on Sept. 26.
China in Eurasia with Reid Standish: In 2021, Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open a representative office in Vilnius. Beijing was not pleased, and what followed was an interesting case of China trying to use economic pressure on an EU member state. From Talking China In Eurasia, with Bethany Allen and host Reid Standish.
European components found in Iranian Drones
Iranian kamikaze drones used in the latest attacks on Ukrainian cities are filled with European components, according to a secret document sent by Kyiv to its western allies in which it appeals for long-range missiles to attack production sites in Russia, Iran and Syria.
In a 47-page document submitted by Ukraine’s government to the G7 governments in August, it is claimed there were more than 600 raids on cities using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) containing western technology in the previous three months.
According to the report, obtained by the Guardian, 52 electrical components manufactured by western companies were found in the Shahed-131 drone and 57 in the Shahed-136 model, which has a flight range of 2,000km (1,240 miles) and cruising speed of 180kmh (111mph).
Five European companies including a Polish subsidiary of a British multinational are named as the original manufacturers of the identified components.
“Among the manufacturers are companies headquartered in the countries of the sanctions coalition: the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Japan, and Poland,” it claims.
According to the report, Iran has already diversified its production through the use of a Syrian factory in the port of Novorossiysk but the production of drones is shifting to Russia, to the central Tartar region of Alabuga, although Tehran continues to supply the components.
It says the Iranian government is trying to “disassociate itself from providing Russia with weapons” and “cannot cope with Russian demand and the intensity of use in Ukraine”
Listen to our Kremlin File podcast episode with Denys Hytuk about investigations and findings of Western tech components in Russian weaponry.
Disinformation most active on X, formerly known as Twitter, EU says—BBC News
X, formerly Twitter, has the biggest proportion of disinformation of six big social networks, a European Commission study has suggested.
It examined over 6,000 unique social media posts across Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, TikTok, X, and YouTube. The study analysed content in three countries deemed particularly at risk to disinformation - Spain, Poland and Slovakia. The study was carried out by TrustLab, a disinformation monitoring start-up, as part of work to support the EU's code of practice on disinformation.
X, then called Twitter, along with many other social networks, signed up to the voluntary code in 2018. But the company withdrew from the code while under Mr Musk's leadership.
X will however be subject to the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA) which regulates the conduct of the large tech platforms - the EU intends to turn the voluntary code into a code of conduct under the act.
"Mr Musk knows that he is not off the hook by leaving the code of practice, because now we have the Digital Services Act fully enforced," Ms Jourova said.
Companies that fail to comply with the act could face fines of up to six percent of global turnover.
In September the EU accused social media companies of failing to stop "large-scale" Russian disinformation campaigns since the invasion of Ukraine. It said the "reach and influence of Kremlin-backed accounts" had grown further in 2023.
On Tuesday Ms Jourova said: "The Russian state has engaged in the war of ideas to pollute our information space with half-truth and lies to create a false image that democracy is no better than autocracy."
Russia was aiming a "a multi-million euro weapon of mass manipulation" at Europeans and the large social media platforms had to address this risk, she added.
The threat was particularly serious because of the war in Ukraine and upcoming European elections, Ms Jourova went on. The commissioner also noted that work was underway on tackling AI generated disinformation ahead of the elections. She said she would be meeting representatives of OpenAI on Tuesday to talk about it.
Programming note…
Kremlin File Ep 6 with Nathalie Vogel: The Spies Inside & How they Operate
In our recently released Kremlin File, we talked to Julia Davis about her work of collecting evidence from Russian propagandists which she will present to the UN Commission.
