Sept 29: E-Stories
Day583 RUattacks Kherson CombatSit Bakhmut Zapo grain IAEA 70%Plus Kazakhstan KaraMurza NATO BUL EU Sokolin BehindLines Baku King CN Blinken Trump A&P Scherba Fattorini UKDef ISW Brooks Vogel
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Russian attacks against grain facilities in Kherson. Oleksandr Scherba rightly commented that if you’re thinking that Russia cares about the world’s food security, think again.
Stories we’re following…
Sept 28: A total 34 out of 44 Shahed drones were shot down. Additionally, 6 reconnaissance drones were shot down.
Shelling near Kherson injures 3. A Russian attack on the village of Antonivka, a suburb of the city of Kherson, injured two women and a man, Roman Mrochko, head of the Kherson city military administration, reported on Telegram on Sept. 28.
Russia attacks Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, injuring 3. Russian forces launched an attack against Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast in the afternoon on Sept. 28, injuring three people, head of the city's military administration Oleksii Roslov told Suspilne News.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Ukraine appears to marginally advance near Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on Sept. 26 and analyzed by the Institute for the Study War indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced near the village of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, located 11 kilometers northwest of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast.
Francis Farrell: Overcoming setbacks, NATO-trained brigade breaches Surovikin line in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Even months before it started, just the idea of Ukraine’s large-scale counteroffensive in 2023 carried on its shoulders a historic weight. Much of this weight of expectation lay on the shoulders of just one brigade. The 47th Mechanized Brigade, held up as a progressive model of the Ukrainian army of the future, was to lead the push south of Orikhiv, heading straight for the key cities of Tokmak and Melitopol.
ISW: “Ukrainian operations can & will likely continue even in [the fall & winter], even if they occur at a slower pace,” writes ISW Non-Resident Russia Fellow Natalia Bugayova. "The key is denying Russia the reprieve it desperately needs over the winter."
Behind the Lines
Iran plans to sell Russia new drones and ballistic missiles. This may come into effect after October 18. That's when the UN Security Council, which prohibits the Iranian authorities from making such supplies, will expire, ISW writes.
The Freedom of Russia legion announced that they have restarted operations in the Bilhorod region in Russia.
"There are no wounded or dead among the legionnaires, we are working according to plan. Leave the tales about minefields to Konashenkov. We continue to cleanse our house of Putin’s filth," they emphasize.
Noel Reports: According to the latest information, The Freedom of Russia Legion is conducting operations in the villages of Starosel'e and Terebreno, located ~50km southeast of Sumy.
President Zelensky: “There are results on the IAEA platform: Ukraine has become a member of the Board of Governors of this organization – the International Atomic Energy Agency. And this not only underscores our international security role but also provides real opportunities for Ukraine to influence the adoption of decisions that are binding for all IAEA members and the entire international community.”
Reuters: UN trade chief says Ukraine's grain corridor is positive step but not lasting solution.
The opening of a humanitarian corridor by Ukraine to bypass Russia's de facto blockade is a move in the right direction, but should not replace a larger deal to resume shipping through the Black Sea, the top United Nations trade chief said in comments to Reuters on Sept. 27.
Rebeca Grynspan, who leads the U.N. implementation of the grain deal with Russia, told Reuters that "the only thing that will take the risk away and stabilize ... the situation is an agreement that will be backed by all partners."
Meanwhile in Russia
Gerashchenko: “During a meeting with the rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Putin supported the idea to restore Tsarskoselskiy lyceum for training young people for public service since an early age. Previously (in the Russian empire) this used be a privileged higher education institution for children of aristocrats.”
AFP: Russia to hike defence spending by almost 70% in 2024: finance ministry document. Defence spending hike planned for 2024 'necessary' due to 'hybrid war against Russia', says the Kremlin. The document said defence spending was set to jump by over 68% year on year to almost 10.8tn rubles (£91bn), totalling around 6% of GDP – more than spending allocated for social policy. Defence spending is set to total around three times more than education, environmental protection and healthcare spending combined in 2024, figures calculated by AFP showed.
"Kazakhstan supports EU decisions on sanctions against Russia for aggression against Ukraine and will not give Moscow the opportunity to circumvent them," President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev said at a briefing in Germany.
Monique: Italy is a special case to be studied concerning the widespread dissemination of disinformation. We’re working on it. Italy has won the prize for the most ‘fake posts’ which have been removed from Facebook in the European Union.
Putin has signed into law a decree that makes 30 September officially recognised as a “day of reunification” for the four regions that Russia claimed to annex from Ukraine last year, reports Tass. Having held referendums, widely condemned as a sham, in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, on 30 September last year Putin signed a document with the Russian-installed leaders of the occupied regions to unilaterally incorporate them into the Russian Federation, despite Russia not fully controlling the territory.
Evgenia Kara-Murza: Kara-Murza has been given two more weeks in a punishment cell of the maximum security prison camp in Siberia. Traditional treatment of dissenters by Putin’s vengeful regime. (Kara-Murza has been sentenced to 25 years of hard imprisonment on trumped up charges.)
Allied Support
Bulgarian parliament approves providing Ukraine with S-300 missiles. The primary reason for the need to transfer the missiles, argued Parliamentary Defense Committee Head Hristo Gadzhev, was the missiles were too old to be of use to the Bulgarian military, and that even their original manufacturer would be unable to repair them.
Nato has framework contracts in place for €2.4bn (£2bn) of key ammunition for Ukraine, including €1bn (£864m) in firm orders, its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Thursday, on an unannounced visit to Kyiv, Reuters reports. Speaking at a joint press conference Stoltenberg said “every metre that Ukrainian forces regain is a metre that Russia loses”. He added:
And there is a stark contrast: Ukrainians are fighting for their families, their future, their freedom. Moscow is fighting for imperial delusions.
Zelenskyy said: “And so it is almost every night. In the conditions of such intense attacks against Ukrainians, against our cities, ports – which are important for global food security – we need a corresponding increase in pressure on Russia and a corresponding increase in our air shield.”
Brussels has warned European companies and governments that it could ban the sale of certain components to Turkey and other countries from where Iran and Russia are sourcing parts for drones and other weapons striking Ukrainian cities. The comments from the European Commission follow a leak to the Guardian of a 47-page document in which the Ukrainian government detailed the use of western technology and appealed for long-range missiles to attack drone production sites in Russia, Iran and Syria.
Monique: for a detailed discussion about Western tech components and machine tools that are sold and sent to Russia via secondary routes, please listen to Kremlin File’s chat with Denys Hytuk of the Economic Security Council of Ukraine. The report in question is probably the work of the ESCU, which includes Denys’s work and investigations.
CNN: House Republicans to reject Senate deal as US shutdown nears. U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has signaled that Republican lawmakers will reject a temporary stopgap deal from the Senate that contains aid to Ukraine, CNN reported Sept. 27. The Senate bill aims to prevent a government shutdown on Oct. 1 with a temporary deal that extends until Nov. 17.
Around the World
Baku claims 192 Azerbaijani troops killed, 511 wounded in Karabakh offensive. During Baku's recent offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, 180 Azerbaijani soldiers, 12 service members of the Interior Ministry, and one Azerbaijani civilian were killed, the state-run Azerbaijani Press Agency reported on Sept. 27, citing the country's Health Ministry.
Azerbaijan detains former Nagorno-Karabakh PM. Russian-Armenian investor and billionaire Ruben Vardanyan held senior positions in several Russian companies and founded one of Russia's largest investment banks, Troika Dialog.
US Army Private Travis King arrived back on United States soil Thursday after being returned to American custody weeks after he crossed into North Korea, a Defense Department official said. King flew in on a US military flight, landing at Kelly Field at Joint Base San Antonio-Fort Sam Houston around 1:30 a.m. ET, the official said.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken jamming in the White House.
WaPo- GOP Debate last night: The presidential hopefuls attacked one another and President Biden in California last night. They also took aim at Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner. At times shouting over one another, candidates disagreed on Ukraine, blamed Biden for the UAW strike and said both parties should be blamed if there’s a shutdown.
The Spy Museum: FBI special agent Robert Hanssen was a man of many contradictions. You might be familiar with Hanssen from our museum exhibit. Dive deeper into his story with the new CBSNews podcast, "Agent of Betrayal: The Double Life of Robert Hanssen". Listen now.
Trump’s business empire could collapse ‘like falling dominoes’ after ruling—The Guardian
Donald Trump’s real estate empire could collapse “like falling dominoes”, experts believe, following a New York judge’s ruling that the former president’s business fortune was built on rampant fraud and blatant lies.
According to Michael Cohen, his former attorney and fixer, Trump is already effectively “out of business” in New York after Judge Arthur Engoron on Tuesday rescinded the licenses of the Trump Organization and other companies owned by Trump and his adult sons, Eric and Don Jr.
“Those companies will end up being liquidated … the judge has already determined that the fraud existed,” Cohen told CNN, hailing Engoron’s pretrial ruling in a civil case brought by Letitia James, the New York attorney general.
On Wednesday morning, in a confrontational post on his Truth Social website that branded the judge a “political hack”, Trump said Engoron “must be stopped”.
At a hearing on Wednesday afternoon, Trump’s legal team asked Engoron if his ruling meant Trump’s assets and businesses must be sold, or if they could continue to operate under receivership.
Engoron said he would address the issue at the non-jury trial beginning on 2 October, and extended to 30 days his original 10-day deadline for both parties to suggest names to act as receivers for the various companies.
The lawyers have said they will appeal the rescinding of the licenses, the appointment of receivers, and Engoron’s assertion that Trump and executives lived in a “fantasy world” of routinely, repeatedly and illegally overvaluing property values and his personal net worth to gain favorable loan terms and reduced insurance premiums. [continue]
Programming note…
Nathalie Vogel on Kremlin File: Olga and I were super pleased to chat with Nathalie Vogel, IWP’s Research Fellow at the Centre for Intermarium Studies about Russian assets and agents and how they operate in Europe. Here’s a tiny taste of our conversation: