Sept 30 Buonasera Mag
Day 220: Zelensky, Lyman, UA-NATO, Biden, VDL, UK, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, UK economy, GER gas, Fort Bragg-A&Ps- NYT audio, Zelensky address, Kolesnyk, Nichols, Schmitt, Hastings
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky: Ukraine won't negotiate with Putin. Ukraine offered Russia "to agree on coexistence on equal, honest, dignified, and fair terms," but this is impossible with "this Russian president." "We are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia."
Ukraine has formally submitted its application to join the Nato alliance, President Zelensky has announced. "We are de facto allies already," he said. "De facto, we have already proven compatibility with Alliance standards. Ukraine is applying to confirm it de jure," Zelensky said, "by an expedited procedure."
Canada, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia support Ukraine's accession to NATO. Canadian foreign minister Mélanie Joly said in Washington today: "We believe that Ukraine should be part of NATO. It's been our position for more than a decade."
The Ukrainian' President’s office has issued a briefing statement after today’s national security council meeting. It reads in part:
The members of the National Security Council discussed the issue of another attempt to annex the territory of Ukraine and the escalation of armed aggression by the Russian Federation.
The measures that must be taken to ensure the collective security of the Euro-Atlantic space and Ukraine were discussed. In particular, this is the strengthening and expansion of the international coalition in support of Ukraine, the increase of military and technical assistance to our country, the strengthening of sanctions pressure on Russia, the implementation of proposals to guarantee security in the international arena, the activation of the strategy of nuclear deterrence of Russia by the countries of the Euro-Atlantic space, as well as countering hybrid threats caused by the aggressor country.
US president Biden condemned Russia’s “fraudulent” attempt to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory. President Biden said:
Make no mistake: these actions have no legitimacy. The United States will always honour Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.
I urge all members of the international community to reject Russia’s illegal attempts at annexation and to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes.
Von der Leyen: “The illegal annexation proclaimed by Putin won’t change anything. All territories illegally occupied by Russian invaders are Ukrainian land and will always be part of this sovereign nation.” (Please see Leader’s statement)
Putin has mobilised hundreds of thousands of more troops, engaged in irresponsible nuclear sabre-rattling and now illegally annexed more Ukrainian territory. Together, this represents the most serious escalation since the start of the war.
Nato allies reaffirmed their “unwavering support” for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, he said.
The UK is stepping up sanctions against Russia following the “illegal” annexation of four areas of Ukraine, its foreign secretary James Cleverly has announced. The measures will restrict Russia’s access to key British commercial and transactional services, as well as ban the export to Russia of almost 700 goods that are critical to manufacturing production, the UK’s foreign office said.
Ukrainian forces have secured all of Kupiansk and driven Russian troops from their remaining positions on the east bank of the river that divides the northeastern Ukrainian city. Most of Kupiansk, a strategic railway junction, was recaptured earlier this month as part of a stunning counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops in the north-east of the country.
Last night: Russians escalating terror against Ukrainian people, just now: missile strikes in Dnipro city again, Shahed drones reportedly on the way to Ochakiv and Odesa, Zaporizhzhia reports explosions.
115 buses were burned yesterday after Russia shelled a bus park in Dnipro. This will cause serious problems for the functioning of public transport in the city. Kyiv will bring over 30 buses by Monday. European Sister cities of Dnipro will also help.
Russian sources report the situation around Lyman has become extremely difficult for their forces and without significant reinforcements the situation will only get worse.
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of President Zelensky, has told Russia that it will need to ask Kyiv for permission for Russian troops to exit the Lyman encirclement, provided “of course, those in Kremlin are concerned with their soldiers.”
The Russian installed leader in Donetsk has acknowledged troops had lost full control of the villages of Yampil and Dobryshev, north and east of the city of Lyman. 81st Airborne Brigade liberated the village of Drobysheve, Donetsk region.
Intelligence: Probability of Russia striking Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons is ‘very high'. “They will likely target places along the frontlines with lots of personnel and equipment,” Vadym Skibitsky, a deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, told The Guardian.
Russia kills 23 civilians, injures 28 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. On the morning of Sept. 30, Russian troops launched a missile attack on a line of civilian cars on the way out of the regional center, according to Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Oleksandr Starukh. “People stood in line to enter the temporarily occupied territory, to pick up their relatives, to bring aid,” said Starukh.
President Zelenskiy has posted a response on Telegram to the earlier attack on the convoy in Zaporizhzhia. He wrote: “The terrorist state fires rockets at the civilian population in Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk. It strikes Ukrainian regions from rocket launchers and drones. The occupiers fired 16 rockets in one morning in Zaporizhzhia district alone. Only complete terrorists can do this, who should have no place in the civilised world. The enemy rages and seeks revenge for our steadfastness and his failures.”
Wagner Commander killed in Ukraine. Alexei Nagin, callsign 'Terek', was killed near Bakhmut on September 20. A close associate of Yevgeny Prigozhin, he had fought in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria & Libya. He recently worked on the film 'PMC - The Best in Hell'.
Norway announces that it might close its border to Russian tourists.
Putin's approval rating fell after mobilization began. The share of those who approve of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s performance dropped from 83% in August to 77% in September, according to a survey conducted by polling agency Levada Center on Sept. 22-28.
Pres Zelensky: Mark Hamill, an actor who played Luke Skywalker in Star Wars, became the ambassador of the UNITED24 fundraising platform and will help to raise funds for the so called Drone Army. (I’m a Star Wars fan.)
Liz Truss has insisted her government’s economic policy is on the right course despite the need for emergency intervention from the Bank of England, saying she is “prepared to take difficult decisions” and will not change policy.
Germany’s finance minister has vowed that he will not follow the UK “down the path of an expansionary fiscal policy” as his government announced a €200bn (£177bn) fund designed to protect consumers and businesses from rising gas prices driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Putin’s speech Sept 30, 2022
Tomorrow I will be publishing the speech in full and reactions of the world’s leaders as well as US and UK sanctions. See Max Seddon’s thread for the highlights of the speech.
Post- speech rally: Putin addressed crowds in Red Square in central Moscow after he signed “accession treaties” formalising Russia’s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine. Today is a “historic day”, Putin says, “a day of truth and justice”.
Spies in Fort Bragg
A Johns Hopkins anesthesiologist, Anna Gabrielian and her spouse, Jamie Lee Henry, a doctor and major in the U.S. Army, were federally indicted for attempting to provide medical information about members of the military to the Russian government. They had a secret security clearance as a doctor at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, communicated and met several times with an undercover FBI agent who they believed was from the Russian embassy, offering sensitive medical information on military members and their families, the indictment alleges.
‘Putin Is a Fool’: Intercepted Calls Reveal Russian Army in Disarray- NYT (extraordinary, please read and listen)
From trenches, dugouts and in occupied homes in the area around Bucha, a western suburb of Kyiv, Russian soldiers disobeyed orders by making unauthorized calls from their cellphones to their wives, girlfriends, friends and parents hundreds of miles from the front line.
Someone else was listening in: the Ukrainian government.
The New York Times has exclusively obtained recordings of thousands of calls that were made throughout March and intercepted by Ukrainian law enforcement agencies from this pivotal location.fd
Audio: “I didn’t know this was going to happen. They said we were going for training. These bastards didn’t tell us anything.”
Spiegel Politics, BND regularly supplies intelligence information to Ukraine
Chancellor Scholz publicly urged prudence when it comes to military support for Ukraine. But behind the scenes, the Federal Intelligence Service provides secret information almost every day.
Tom Nichols, Russia’s Nuclear Threats Are All Putin Has Left- The Atlantic
Nonetheless, I still believe that Russian use of a nuclear weapon is unlikely. This is only an informed guess, because my expertise on Russia does not extend to the interior of Putin’s skull. But Putin has almost certainly contemplated the high probability that using a nuclear weapon could bring about the end of his rule faster than any of the bungled decisions he’s already made. This is not because global nuclear war would break out—although any use of a nuclear weapon runs that risk—but because a nuclear attack on Ukraine could provoke a collapse of the Russian regime itself.
Bob Hastings, Imprisoned Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza: ‘None of us know how Putin’s regime will end – but it will’- I
Twice poisoned and now facing 14 years in jail, Vladimir Kara-Murza reveals his experiences as a political prisoner in an interview through handwritten messages.
In a cell in Moscow, Vladimir Kara-Murza is awaiting trial. He knows he will be found guilty. His “crimes” are telling the truth about Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and standing up for Russia’s political prisoners – before he became one himself.
Boots on sale…
