Sept 30: Saturday Stories
Day583 RUattacks CombatSit Kursk Bryansk InRussia Troshev Taliban Gazprom IAEA ROM BEL BehindLines Allies GER FR OSCE GOP US UK SpainA&P DarthLavrov KyivIndie UKDef ISW Alvarova Braw MacKay Gic Sipher
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
President Zelenskyy Official: “Tomorrow [today] there will be important news for Ukraine: for our warriors and for our entire state.”
Stories we’re following…
Russia attacks Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, injuring 3. "At 12:50, there was a strike in the residential district of Kostiantynivka," Roslov reportedly said. "According to the latest information, three people were injured, one of them is in serious condition."
Russian shelling of Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Oblast, kills 2, injures 3. According to the prosecutors, Russia shelled the town at 12 p.m. local time using 152 mm artillery. Two men aged 47 and 54 were reportedly killed in the attack. A 60-year-old man and two women aged 45 and 61 suffered injuries as a result of the strike, the Prosecutor's Office said.
There were 116 russian shelling. 22 settlements of the Zaporizhzhia region were damaged by the russian attack, reports the head of the Regional Military Administration, Yurii Malashko. There were 25 reports of the demolition of houses, outbuildings, and infrastructure. Luckily, no casualties.
Kherson continuously shelled by Russia: the Russian forces shelled the center of Kherson, reports the head of the Kherson City Military Administration, Roman Mrochko. According to preliminary information, two people who cleaned the territory of the parks were seriously injured. A garbage truck was also damaged by the shelling.
Energy Ministry: IAEA demands Russia immediately leave Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference has adopted a resolution on the immediate return of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant under Ukraine's full control, the Energy Ministry reported on Sept. 29.
The document calls on Russia to immediately withdraw all military and other unauthorized personnel from the plant's territory to ensure its safe and secure operation, according to the report.
A “powerful” explosion was heard in Russian-occupied Berdiansk, in Zaporizhzhia oblast, on Friday afternoon, reported Viktoriia Halitsina, the head of the city military administration. The explosion was followed by power supply interruptions in the city, Halitsina said, citing Berdiansk residents, the Kyiv Independent reports.
A Ukrainian drone dropped explosives on a substation in a Russian village close to the border in Kursk region on Friday, cutting off the power supply to a hospital, the regional governor said. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) used a drone to destroy the Russian radar system Kasta in the Kursk region on Sept. 28, Ukrainian media outlet Hromadske reported on Sept. 29, citing its source in the SBU.
The Russians have said that it (the system) can detect even stealth aircraft, but it missed the SBU drone for some reason. The peculiarity of this radar system was the ability to identify aerial targets at extremely low altitudes," a source said.
Combat Situation Update
Ukrainian subversive group consisting of about 50 people entered Bryansk region. Currently, there is a battle near the village of Lugovoi. Some roads in the Novozybkovsky district of the region are reportedly blocked. A general mobilization has been announced for law enforcement agencies.
Another Russian Su-35 crashed according to Russian Air Force affiliated channel Fighterbomber. What exactly happened is unknow yet but yesterday it became known that in the Tokmak direction, Russia lost a fighter jet due to friendly fire.
"The Russian defensive lines turned out to be stronger than the West expected," British Chief of the Defence Staff Tony Radakin said. He emphasized that Western countries may need to adjust their short term expectations of the counteroffensive.
Calculating the territories retaken by Ukraine, Russia has gained a total of 486 square kilometers of territory since January 2023 (NYT+ISW data). We are talking about a smaller amount of territory than the territory of Kyiv or New York City.
Russia claims 11 drones downed over Kursk, Kaluga regions. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Sept. 29 that its forces shot down 11 Ukrainian drones overnight — 10 over the Kursk region and another one over the Kaluga region. Kyiv hasn't commented.
Romania is moving air defenses closer to its Danube villages across the river from Ukraine where Russian drones have been attacking grain facilities, and is adding more military observation posts and patrols to the area, reports Reuters.
"The measures, along with the deployment of four additional U.S. F-16 fighter jets and an expanded no-fly zone, are a sign of growing concern in Romania and the broader NATO alliance that the Ukraine war could spill over into its territory," the article reads.
Belarus claims Polish helicopter violated its airspace, Poland denies. The Belarusian Defense Ministry claimed that a Polish helicopter entered its airspace on Sept. 28, which Warsaw denies.
"At around 15:20, the aircraft crossed the border of the Republic of Belarus, flying into a depth of up to one and a half kilometers," the Belarusian Defense Ministry's press service said.
"Today's statement by the Belarusian side about the alleged crossing of the border by a Polish helicopter is false," the Operational Command of the Armed Forces of Poland said in response.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the beginning of the autumn conscription on October 1 in all constituent entities of the Russian Federation, with the exception of certain regions of the Far North and areas equivalent to them. There it will start on November 1 due to the climate.
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin met Andrei Troshev, formerly a top Wagner unit commander, (known as Sedoi) to discuss how voluntary fighting units are used in the Ukraine war, the Kremlin said on Friday, Reuters reports.
“You yourself have been fighting in such a unit for more than a year,” Putin said. “You know what it is, how it is done, you know about the issues that need to be resolved in advance so that the combat work goes in the best and most successful way.”
Monique: Putin also received Yevkurov and Averyanov. The three Prigozhin commanders were considered "Prigozhin traitors" but Putin has now chosen them to head up the Wagner Group.
In Moscow and St. Petersburg, long lines line up at military registration and enlistment offices before the start of the autumn conscription. They include citizens who want to register and receive a deferment, as well as representatives of companies who want to transfer data about their employees.
“Today I tried to go to the military registration and enlistment office, and there was a huge line there. However, it is taken only two days a week. I couldn’t register today,” Moscow resident Roman, who arrived at the military registration and enlistment office in the Danilovsky district of the capital, told MSK1.ru.
Insider: Exercises will be held throughout Russia in case of large-scale destruction and “radioactive contamination.” Baza reports this with reference to the decree of the head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova.
All responsible persons” should participate in the exercises, from civil defense leaders to heads of state corporations. An exception was made only for the so-called “LDPR” authorities, as well as the occupied parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, writes Baza. As the Telegram channel notes, citing sources, similar training has already been carried out in certain regions on different days. General exercises throughout Russia are being held for the first time.
Monique: the only way a nuclear weapon would somehow detonate in Russia is if the Russians do it themselves. These are tactics used by the Kremlin to scare its own people into submission.
A delegation of the Taliban arrived in Kazan for talks/negotiations with Russia. What a great allies: Belarus, Syria, Iran, North-Korea, Afghanistan/Taliban.
For the first time in 2023, Russia's Gazprom published its operational figures for gas production and supply, which showed a decrease in gas production in Russia by almost 25%. Gazprom has never had such a low production rate in its entire history. The last time a similar figure was in the Soviet Union: in 1978, 372.1 billion cubic meters of gas were produced.
Jacopo Iacoboni: Russian domestic troubles: the collapse of the rouble, fuel and gasoline shortages, and the reduction of meat production, have produced the highest surge in inflation in Russia, now at 5.74 percent. Rosstat data: in one year gasoline +10%. tomatoes + 45.4%. cucumbers +35.3%. cabbage +46.7%. carrots + 33.2%. chicken + 23.
Julia Davis- Russian Media Monitor: In another chilling moment on Russian state TV, professor Sergey Luzyanin compares Russia's ongoing slaughter of Ukrainians to "a giant furnace," which burns them up and in that fire, the "strong and pure steel of a Russian nation is being forged."
Monique: Good news on what Julia, Olga and I discussed on Kremlin File regarding the role of propagandists in inciting Russia’s war of genocide in Ukraine. The OSCE is investigating. Julia will continue gathering evidence and here’s hoping these people can be held accountable for war crimes.
Russian athletes will be able to compete as full participants or neutral athletes at next year’s Paris Paralympics after the International Paralympic Committee members voted against a full ban of Russia on Friday. The decision clears the way for Russians, whose athletes are currently banned from any Paralympic competition, to be in Paris.
Behind the Lines
Meduza: The Russian Minister of Construction and Housing and Public Utilities of the Russian Federation, Irek Fayzullin, said that not all Ukrainian cities captured by Russian troops need to be restored.
It is possible that under these conditions we may not be able to restore some cities. Popasnaya is a city of a hundred thousand people, there is nothing left there, seven people live there, they don’t want to leave their individual housing. We are not doing anything there yet (quote from TASS).
Putin signed a decree defining a list of documents with which Ukrainian citizens will be able to enter Russian territory without visas - even if these documents have expired. The documents include a passport of a citizen of Ukraine, a passport of a citizen of Ukraine for traveling abroad and a birth certificate (for children under 16 years of age).
Ukraine calls on OSCE to probe calls for genocide in Russian media. Ukraine has called on the OSCE Representative on Media Freedom, Teresa Ribeiro, to contribute to the UN Commission's investigation into the calls seen across Russian media constituting incitement to the genocide of Ukrainians.
The US State Department: “The United States and Bulgaria signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) today that increases cooperation to counter foreign information manipulation. The MOU provides a strong foundation for both countries to work together against the spread of disinformation and media manipulation, an increasing threat in Central and Eastern Europe.”
The MOU signals a commitment by the United States and Bulgaria to develop a shared approach to better understanding foreign disinformation and building collaborative mechanisms to counteract its threat. The United States and Bulgaria recognize that authoritarian governments manipulate information and spread disinformation to influence people around the world.
Allied Support
The UK government has imposed an asset freeze and travel bans on officials in the annexed Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Crimea as part of its broader sanctions against Russia.
Those sanctioned include: the Central Election Commission of Russia; CEC official Natalya Budarina; Andrey Alexeyenko, who was appointed head of the Kherson regional administration, Alexander Kurenkov, Russia’s emergencies minister, and Marina Zakharova, appointed head of the Russian-installed election commission in Kherson.
The UK also added the Russia’s emergencies minister, Alexander Kurenkov, and the secretary of the Russian central election commission, Natalya Alekseevna Budarina, to the sanctions list.
Sweden provides 25 million euros to support Ukraine's energy system. Sweden has allocated 25.2 million euros ($26.6 million) to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine and has already delivered over 1,000 tons of equipment to aid in the restoration of the power infrastructure.
Germany greenlights joint Rheinmetall-Ukraine venture in Kyiv. This new enterprise will provide "maintenance, assembly, production, and development of military vehicles" and initially operate exclusively on the territory of Ukraine, the German Federal Cartel Office said.
Ukraine, France start joint production of certain types of weapons. President Zelenskyy discussed with French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu the possibility of joint production of "certain types of weapons" and strengthening Ukrainian air defense. Twenty French companies specializing in the production of military equipment: armored vehicles, artillery, drones, cyber and even demining signed around twenty contracts, letters of intent or MOUs with Ukrainian companies.
Switzerland has announced “further sanctions in connection with the supply of Iranian drones to Russia” in a statement from the government. The measure brings it in-line with EU sanctions. It said:
In view of Iran’s continued military support for Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which is contrary to international law, and the fact that Russia is using Iranian-made Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to support the military aggression, the Federal Council decided on 29 September to impose further sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Federal Council has adopted the sanctions imposed by the EU on 20 July as part of its new framework for restrictive measures. The sale, supply, export and transit of components used for the manufacture and production of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is now prohibited.
The Hill: Republicans remove Ukraine funding from US defense spending bill. House Republicans in U.S. Congress voted to strip $300 million in Ukraine aid from their defense spending bill in an effort to secure votes from their hardline members, The Hill reported on Sept. 28. The House Rules Committee convened at night on Sept. 27 to remove the funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative from the defense spending package and instead had it stand as a separate bill, the outlet said.
Pentagon: Government shutdown to affect F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots. The expected U.S. government shutdown would affect the training program for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, European Pravda reported on Sept. 28, citing Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh. The official reportedly said during a press briefing that a "shutdown is the worst scenario that can happen to the (Defense) Department" regarding the training of Ukrainian crews on F-16s.
Orban: "We don't know how big the territory of Ukraine because the war is still going on, we don't know how big its population is because they are fleeing. To admit a country to the EU without knowing its parameters. It would be unprecedented".
Ukraine’s foreign ministry has reacted to Orbán, saying that “very difficult questions” would need to be answered before the EU could start membership talks with Ukraine. The ministry said it was positive “that the Hungarian prime minister is concerned about Ukraine’s accession to the European Union”. “We would like to inform that Ukraine has not changed its territory within its internationally recognised borders,” the ministry added.
Slovakia heads to the polls today in a knife-edge election that will determine its stance on neighboring Ukraine. As of this writing, the party of pro-Russian former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is leading in pre-election polls. Slovakia, which previously provided the most active support to Ukraine, including weapons and military equipment, may change its position if Fico comes to power. Robert Fico has promised to stop supporting Ukraine and opposes its membership in NATO.
Around the World
Reuters: After a lightning operation by Azerbaijan’s military to retake control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the stream of ethnic Armenians fleeing the region to Armenia quickly turned into a flood. Reuters photographer David Ghahramanyan witnessed the exodus.
Saudi Arabia is determined to secure a military pact requiring the United States to defend the kingdom in return for opening ties with Israel and will not hold up a deal even if Israel does not offer major concessions to Palestinians in their bid for statehood, sources told Reuters.
Inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in two years in September, suggesting the European Central Bank's steady diet of interest rate hikes was succeeding in curbing runaway prices albeit at a growing cost for economic growth.
In Spanish politics, the country’s congress prepares to vote on Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s (almost certainly doomed) bid to become prime minister.
Feijóo’s conservative People’s party (PP) got the most votes in Spain’s July snap election, but failed to secure sufficient support to form a government.
Despite knowing he did not have the numbers to reach the absolute majority threshold of 176 seats – even with the support of the far-right Vox party and two smaller groupings – Feijóo received King Felipe’s blessing to attempt an investiture this week.
As predicted, he lost the first vote on Wednesday by 172 votes to 178, falling four votes short of the absolute majority he needed.
NYT: Trump Lawsuit Against Judge in Fraud Case Rejected by Appeals Court. Donald Trump had accused Justice Arthur Engoron of ignoring an earlier decision that could have barred evidence from the case.
The Republicans held the first impeachment hearing, which wasn’t really an impeachment hearing but a hearing to establish if there is evidence…I give up. It was a circus show meant to keep the GOP nutter wing in the media cycle for the election and a distraction from the news story above. Listen to what this representative had to say:
WaPo: The government will shut down at 12:01 a.m. Sunday if House Republicans can’t pass a spending bill as soon as possible that a majority of Congress agrees on. If the shut down were to happen, normal life wouldn’t be affected right away but the military and federal government workers will feel the impact.
The last time there was a government shut down in 2019 for a month, “flights got delayed after air traffic controllers stopped showing up for work while not being paid. Food safety inspections could lag. Programs that help people buy food could run out of money in a few days. Billions in federal disaster aid could be delayed. Passport services will close down. “Basic federal services hang in the balance,” reports The Washington Post’s Jacob Bogage.”