Sept 4: E-Stories
Day 557 RUattacks CombatSitRep Kursk BehindLines StPetes NovaKahkova Armenia RUelex Tucker HUN medics GERspies Turkey Macron China Umerov A&P Lautman Kross UKDef ISW Davis Amanpour KyivIndie Watts
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian troops have attacked 10 regions of Ukraine with drones, artillery and mortars over the last 24 hours, Euromaidan Press has reported. Russian attacks on Seredyna-Buda in Sumy on Saturday, killed one person and injured three others.
92 explosions have been heard in the Chernihiv region, which borders Russia, but no casualties have been reported.
In Donetsk, houses, cars and local cemetery were damaged, two civilians were killed and two were injured.
Russia launched a three-and-a-half hour drone attack on the southern parts of the Odesa region early on Sunday, hitting Danube River port infrastructure and injuring at least two people, Kyiv said.
Ukraine’s air defence systems shot down 22 of the 25 Iranian-made Shahed drones that Russia launched on Odesa in the early Sunday hours, Reuters reports Ukraine’s air force as saying on Telegram. Ukraine’s South military command said at least two civilians were injured in the early morning attack on what it called “civil infrastructure of the Danube”.
Sabotage in Russia: Local Russian media Fontanka reported that emergency crews rushed to site of huge fire near Ruchi oil depot in St. Petersburg, Russia. They also claim that the “cause of fire still not disclosed, initial reports suggest man-made error.”
Monique: There are numerous acts of sabotage behind the lines in Russia. This constitutes another front. At times, they have a Ukrainian signature, but at other times, they may be carried out by Russian units that do not align with the Kremlin, or working with Ukrainian special forces.
Combat Situation Report:
AP: The Ukrainian military now considers the battles in the north-east, specifically near the town of Kupiansk, in the northern Kharkiv region, and in the forests near Lyman, to be Russia’s main offensive.
Ukraine’s main offensive operations are focused in the south, where they are inching toward the shores of the Sea of Azov in an apparent bid to cut the land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula.
Ukrainians must deal with limitations in manpower, air power and artillery. And the looming autumn rainy season adds even greater urgency to an already difficult battle. The muddy ground will hinder Kyiv’s infantry and heavy machinery.
Reportedly in occupied Nova Kakhovka, left bank of the Kherson region, the Ukrainian flag was raised. The photo was published by the spokesman of the Southern operational command, Colonel Vladyslav Nazarov. Who and when raised the flag is unknown.
In the south, Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines, advancing 7km (4.3 miles) in the southern Zaporizhzhia region since the beginning of the CO, overcoming dense Russian fortifications last week to retake the village of Robotyne – Ukraine’s first tactically significant victory in that part of the country, bringing the UAF closer to Tokmak.
WarGonzo reports that Ukrainian forces are trying to break through east of Novoprokopivka to Pshenychne. This area holds some heights which gives some strategic advantage while the AFU come from the lowland.
“The Armed Forces broke through the first line of Russian defense in the Zaporizhzhia region. The Russians spent 60% of their time building it,” says Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Grouping of Troops.
Mission Accomplished: Exclusive footage of the special operation of the GUR called Synytsia provided by Noel Reports. A Russian pilot surrendered to Ukraine along with the Mi-8 combat helicopter. The Russian pilot calls on other Russian pilots to follow his example.
"You are guaranteed that you will live, receive a reward and, if you want, even continue to fly, but on the side of truth."
Noel Reports: Internet ads were seen in Armenia and Kazakhstan offering $5,140 in starting cash and wages starting at $1,973. Recruitment efforts aimed at ethnic Russians are taking place in the northern Qostanay region of Kazakhstan. At least since May 2023, Russia has been recruiting migrants from Central Asia to fight in Ukraine, promising them fast citizenship and a salary of up to $4,160. With this approach Russia wants to avoid further unpopular domestic mobilization measures ahead of the 2024 presidential elections.
Dmitri Medvedev, former Russian president and now member of Russia’s security council, claims that 280,000 men have enlisted in the Russian armed forces since January 1, 2023.
Monique: which begs the question—Then why are the armed forces enlistening from Central Asia and the occupied territories of Ukraine? How many men is Russia losing in the war?
Monique: It’s no coincidence that I have placed Julia’s tweet about Tucker Carlson and his comments just before information about Hungary. Carlson’s father’s PR firm in Washington DC lobbies and works for Viktor Orban and has for years. More to come on Hungary’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
In Hungary, the government has urged the member states not to take Ukraine into NATO, but to give Russia security guarantees, head of the office of the Hungarian Prime Minister Gergely Gulyás said. The Hungarian official also doubts that Ukraine will be able to return the territories occupied by Russia, and, in his opinion, effective negotiations can only take place with the participation of the United States.
Behind the Lines: Russian forces have consistently targeted medics and the vehicles evacuating the wounded – including ambulances – throughout the full-scale war. Medics are instructed to prioritize their safety over the wounded, but they often risk their own lives in an attempt to save as many lives as possible.
Behind the Lines: A document appeared which reportedly shows Russia has started (or about to start) handing out summons for military enlistment on the occupied left bank of the Kherson region. Another sign that they are trying to avoid further unpopular domestic mobilization measures.
Behind the Lines: Ukraine preparing for possible Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
"A year ago, we had no Western (air defense) systems of medium range at all. We received the first NASAMS and IRIS only last fall. Today, we have such a variety of air defense equipment, which might not be found in any other country," Ihnat said on national television.
Christian Amanpour: Forced deportation of Ukrainian children “is genocide of Ukrainian nation,” says Mykola Kuleba of Save Ukraine. “It is state policy of Putin’s administration to brainwash our kids, Russify kids, kidnap kids, to prepare militaries from Ukrainian children for future war.”
Behind the Lines: In the Kursk region, a building reportedly related to the FSB was hit. Monique: This is an interesting development. The security services put their man into the Kremlin, and they are his support. How long will Putin last if there are direct attacks against FSB buildings or individuals? Putin has already shown that he can’t run a war, the elites and bag men are hurting, and now there are direct threats to the secret services.
Russia’s gas giant, Gazprom, said it would ship 41.5 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine, a volume reportedly in line with recent days. Gazprom’s natural gas exports, mainly to Europe, almost halved last year after the West responded with economic sanctions to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and blasts on the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea.
Die Welt: In Germany, a man assaulted Ukrainian children for speaking Ukrainian. He demanded them to respond in Russian, then pulled a girl's hair and threw a 10 y/o boy over a bridge. The local prosecutor's office launched an investigation.
Armenia’s prime minister has said it would be a strategic mistake for his country to solely rely on Russia to guarantee its security. (Interesting!) Reuters reports:
In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica published on Sunday, Nikol Pashinyan accused Russia of failing to ensure Armenia’s security in the face of what he said was aggression from neighbouring Azerbaijan over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Pashinyan suggested that Moscow, which has a defence pact with Armenia and a military base there, did not regard his country as sufficiently pro-Russian and said he believed Russia was in the process of leaving the wider south Caucasus.
“Armenia’s security architecture was 99.999% linked to Russia, including when it came to the procurement of arms and ammunition,” Pashinyan told La Repubblica.
“But today we see that Russia itself is in need of weapons, arms and ammunition [for the war in Ukraine] and in this situation it’s understandable that even if it wishes so, the Russian federation cannot meet Armenia’s security needs.
“This example should demonstrate to us that dependence on just one partner in security matters is a strategic mistake.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, at a joint press conference with Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, said that the UN has prepared a new proposal package with the contributions of Turkey that is suitable for the revival of the grain initiative.
Erodogan will be meeting with Putin today in Moscow. In all probability Putin will give Erdogan his talking points to present at the G20 slated for Sept 8-9. Erdogan has been the go-between for the US and the Kremlin for quite some time.
Warming up for the G20: Giulia Mandel writes that Lavrov will represent Russia at G20 in New Delhi. He has already stated that Russia will block the final declaration, unless it reflects Moscow's position on Ukraine and other crises, leaving participants to issue a non-binding or partial communique. Lavrov said that Western countries had raised the issue of Ukraine at meetings preparing for the summit, to which Russia replied that "this issue is closed for us."
Zelensky announces dismissal of Defense Minister Reznikov. President Zelensky announced his decision to dismiss Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Sept. 3, saying that the motion will be put to the parliament in the coming week. Reznikov will be replaced, Zelensky said, by fomer MP Rustem Umerov, who since September 2022 has served as head of the State Property Fund.
“I believe that the ministry needs new approaches and other formats of interaction both with the military and with society as a whole,” Zelensky said in his evening address to the nation.
Justice Minister: Ukraine wants to extradite corrupt officials who fled country, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska said on national television on Sept. 2. Ukraine is working with European countries on extraditing corrupt officials who fled the country. Ukrainian officials will prioritize extraditing "those who stole the most," and "the middle fish and other characters will follow suit later."
Ukraine expects a boom in drone production as early as this autumn, according to its defence minister. According to Reuters, Oleksii Reznikov told the state-run Ukrinform news agency on Sunday: “I think this autumn there will be a boom in the production of various Ukrainian drones: flying, floating, crawling, etc, and this will continue to grow in volume.”
President Zelenskyy, and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, spoke on Sunday, discussing the “functioning” of a sea corridor set up by Kyiv for safe navigation of ships after Moscow exited a landmark grain deal in July.
“We also discussed ways to ensure the functioning of the grain corridor and enhance the security of the Odesa region,” Zelenskiy said on social media after a phone call with Macron.
Ukraine designates PepsiCo, Mars as 'international war sponsors.' Ukraine's National Corruption Prevention Agency added major food corporations PepsiCo and Mars to the "international sponsors of war" list on Sept. 1.
Canada plans to train Ukrainian judges and auditors to strengthen its anti-corruption potential. "This is a very important reform and Ukraine knows that this is one of the stipulations for EU accession," Canadian ambassador to Ukraine Natalka Cmoc.
Secret security information on British military and intelligence sites has been leaked online by hackers linked to Russia, the Daily Mirror reports.
They released thousands of pages of data which could help criminals get into the HMNB Clyde nuclear submarine base, the Porton Down chemical weapon lab and a GCHQ listening post.
Information about high-security prisons and a military site key to our cyber defences was also stolen in the raid by group LockBit.
Hackers targeted the databases of Zaun, a firm which makes fences for maximum security sites. The information was then placed onto the internet’s dark web, which can be accessed using special software…
We can reveal the information was stolen last month in a major attack on West Midlands-based Zaun, which makes fences and perimeter security measures for high-risk sites and provided security barriers at the London 2012 Olympics.
New US presidential candidate polling: WSJ poll showing Trump in commanding shape -- and tied with Biden (46%) in general:
Trump 59 —DeSantis 13—Haley 8—Ramaswamy 5—Christie 3—Pence 2—Scott 2
78% of Rs: Trump efforts to overturn election "legitimate" (this is scary)
Threats, insults, and Kremlin 'robots': How Russian diplomacy died under Putin—BBC News
Russia's diplomats were once a key part of President Putin's foreign policy strategy. But that has all changed.
In the years leading up to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, diplomats lost their authority, their role reduced to echoing the Kremlin's aggressive rhetoric.
BBC Russian asks former Western diplomats, as well as ex-Kremlin and White House insiders, how Russian diplomacy broke down.
In October 2021, US Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland went to a meeting at the Russian foreign ministry in Moscow. The man across the table was Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, whom Ms Nuland had known for decades and always got along with.
Mr Rybakov's American counterparts saw him as a practical, calm negotiator - someone they could talk to even as the two countries' relationship frayed.
This time, things were different.
Mr Ryabkov read Moscow's official position from a piece of paper and resisted Ms Nuland's attempts to start a discussion. Ms Nuland was shocked, according to two people who discussed the incident with her.
She described Mr Ryabkov and one of his colleagues as "robots with papers", the people said (the State Department declined to comment on the incident).
And outside the negotiating room, Russian diplomats were using increasingly undiplomatic language.
"We spit on Western sanctions."
"Let me speak. Otherwise, you will really hear what Russian Grad missiles are capable of."
"Morons" - preceded by an expletive.
These are all quotes from people in positions of authority at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in recent years.
How did we get here? [continue]