Sept 6: E-Stories
Day 559: Mariupol Kherson UAattacksRU UASitRep BehindLines Cuba NorKor Grain PutinBaby Pope Umerov BEL SanduRutte NoZapad A&P Kastelhelmi UKDef Mongelli Finnin Fallon BBC TimesRadio Sheremeta Sahni
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Governor: Russian attack on Kherson Oblast injures child. Russian troops struck the village of Soniachne in Kherson Oblast, wounding an 11-year-old boy, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Sept. 4.
Meanwhile in Russia:
Russia shot down at least three Ukraine-launched drones early Tuesday that were targeting the country’s capital, the Russian defence ministry said.
During the night on Sept 5, flights in Moscow Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports were again delayed or cancelled due to drone attacks. In the Kaluga and Tver regions, two drones were reportedly shot down.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that the drones “were trying to carry out an attack on Moscow” and that a consumer services facility was damaged in the Istra district, which is located some 65 km (40 miles) northwest of the Kremlin.
Sobyanin said that drone debris in the Tver region fell in the Zavidovo village. According to RIA state news agency, Zavidodvo is home to “Rus”, an official residence palace of the Russian president.
In Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod region, a flare fire occurred at the Sibur plant in the morning on Sept 5. The Ministry of Emergency Situations claims the fire was caused by violations of manufacturing processes.
According to local accounts, explosions were also heard in occupied Osypenko, north of Berdyansk.
An explosive device went off near the military commissariat in St Petersburg. One hundred grams of explosives and a module with a battery. Those who don't want to go to war in Ukraine seem to be getting creative.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian military warehouse in the village of Myronivskyi, Donetsk region. Ukrainian StratCom confirmed the strike.
Monique: Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow are a psychological tool. The strategic aim is to show the Russian population that their airspace is penetrable. Moscow is also a hub for all flights that go east and west so by forcing the Russians to close their airspace around Moscow, the strikes make life very uncomfortable for travellers. On September 5, almost 50 flights were cancelled or delayed in Moscow’s main airports.
Combat Situation Up-date:
The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline. Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne, reports Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group.
It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations. However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth.
The Russian defence is likely experiencing difficulties. They haven't been able to push Ukrainians back anywhere in this sector. The situation can be even worse for the Russians than shown here - the map is a conservative estimate based on geolocations and satellite imagery.
The Ukrainian offensive has gained some momentum during the last weeks, and we excpect to see more.
ISW: Ukrainian infantry advances closer to Verbove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukraine's infantry has advanced to positions closer to Verbove, a village southeast of the strategic front-line city of Orikhiv, bypassing anti-tank ditches and obstacles, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest report on Sept. 5.
Russian channel 'military informant' reports that the AFU has restarted offensive operations towards Novodonets'ke and Novomaiors'ke. In the past week, there have been several reports from the Russian side that the AFU was building up troops.
"Now the enemy has drawn up additional reserves and, under the cover of artillery fire, was able to overcome minefields and land troops on the outskirts of Novodonets'ke and neighboring Novomaiors'ke, where fighting is now taking place," they write.
The claim has been back up by Alexander Khodakovsky, Comm Vostok Battalion.
"After several days of artillery preparation, the enemy moved on to offensive operations in the Novodonets'ke-Novomaiors'ke sector"—Commander Kremlin-aligned Battalion Vostok, Alexander Khodakovsky.
Behind the Lines
Noel Reports: In the self-proclaimed 'LNR' it is reported that the head of customs and FSB agent Yuriy Afanasyevskii was blown up in his apartment. Sources indicate this is the work of the SBU. He received multiple shrapnel wounds and is now in ICU in critical condition.
Russian-North Korean alliance: After years of backing UN sanctions targeting North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, Putin is going to be meeting with North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok at the end of September at the Eastern Economic Forum. The two countries seek partners in their growing international isolation. Russia needs weaponry and soldiers. North Korea needs advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, as well as food aid, reports the New York Times.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that North Korea "will pay a price" if it provides Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine. His comments follow reports that Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin may meet in Russia later this month to discuss a news arms deal.
Context: The U.S. first warned about cooperation between North Korea and Russia a year ago and later said that North Korea had shipped munitions to Russia through the Middle East and North Africa, reports the NYT. But U.S. officials said that the disclosures had deterred North Korea and that few, if any, North Korean weapons had reached the front lines in Ukraine.
Monique- The question now is: as a member of the UN Security Council, how can Russia have military relations with North Korea that is under UN sanctions? How will the other members react? How can Russia continue to be a member of the Security Council when it continuously breaches the tennents of the UN Charter?
Russians looking to Cuba for soldiers: Cuba's Ministry of the Interior has uncovered a human trafficking network operating from Russia to recruit Cuban citizens living in the Russian Federation and even some living in Cuba into its Armed Forces for the war against Ukraine.
The ruble continues to fall in price on the Moscow Exchange, despite the emergency measures of the Central Bank and the command from the Kremlin to stabilize the exchange rate by the 2024 elections. At the auction on Tuesday, September 5, the dollar rose to the level of 97.71 rubles - the highest in the last three weeks. The euro rose to 105.2 rubles, the highest in a week.
“Sustainable recovery of the ruble is possible only if export earnings increase, which would outpace the increase in imports and the withdrawal of capital abroad,” said BCS analyst Dmitry Babin. But that doesn't happen.
In yesterday’s post, I featured the news about the UN Commissioner who stated that they did not have enough evidence to be able to say that Russia had committed crimes of genocide. Eleonora Mongelli, human rights fighter, reminds us of a crime the Russians have committed: the forcible transferring of children to another group.
Russian attacks on the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have destroyed 1,500 tonnes of grain, Serhii Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, posted on Telegram.
"The enemy has targeted Marhanets hromada in Nikopol district with artillery today [hromada is an administrative unit designating a town, village or several villages and their adjacent territories – ed.]. Two private houses and an infrastructure facility were severely damaged. A power line was damaged [as well]," Lysak said.
Putin plays the victim again: For the seventh time since the beginning of 2023, Putin has complained about "swindle" from Western countries. Monique: The Russians don’t negotiate. This is what they do: they play the victim and everyone is supposed to cave into their demands. You can’t make this up.
“They cheated us again,” Putin said at a press conference on Monday after talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to Putin, the “grain deal” ended in deceit, which Russia was persuaded to extend, allegedly promising to fulfill its demands.
“Again they did nothing. That's it, now we are saying that we are not against this deal, we are ready to immediately return to it, as soon as the promises given to us are fulfilled, ”Putin said.
Kuleba: Russia's demands for relaunching grain deal are 'blackmail.' The Black Sea Grain Initiative "must be restored," but not at the expense of accepting blackmail, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told journalists on Sept. 4.
US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, is visiting Kyiv today. More information on the visit in tomorrow’s post. Last time, Blinken visited Ukraine was a year ago.
Russia has scrapped its huge Zapad military drills this year because of the war in Ukraine, the country’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, was quoted as saying on Monday. “No, this year we are having exercises in Ukraine,” state news agency Ria quoted Shoigu as saying in reply to a question. (Monique: slimy piece of wasted life)
Russian President Vladimir Putin presented a medal of the Order of Merit to the Fatherland, 2nd Class, to Aishat Kadyrova, Minister of Culture of the Chechen Republic and daughter of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. This is reported by TASS with reference to the text of the document. “For merits in the development of national culture and art, for many years of fruitful creative activity, Kadyrova Aishat Ramzanovna will be awarded,” the message says. Kadyrov has 14 children: expect quite a few medals in the future.
Strange: Alexander Malkevich, General Director of the St. Petersburg TV channel and former employee of Yevgeny Prigozhin's media holding, has been appointed advisor to St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov. According to the press service of Smolny, in his new post he will deal with interaction with the occupied regions of Ukraine. Previously, Alexander Malkevich led the English-language propaganda website USA Really under the auspices of Yevgeny Prigozhin's publication, RIA FAN, Paper notes. It failed, and he went to Kherson to set up a media school.
Reuters- Pope Francis putting his foot in his mouth again. Pope Francis admitted that his recent comments about Russia, which were seen as glorifying imperialism, were poorly worded and stressed that his intention was to remind young Russians of a great cultural heritage, not a political one. Monique: he simply thinks Russia is great. Culture is not just a painting, a museum or a square. It’s people.
The Committee of the Verkhovna Rada voted for the dismissal of Umerov on Sept 5 as head of the State Property Fund paving the way for the vote on his future post as Minister of Defense of Ukraine.
Baltic Sea naval drills set to start on September 9 will see Western countries practicing how to repel a Russian attack in the region for the first time, according to Reuters, referencing Germany’s Chief of Navy Jan Kaack. Approximately 30 ships and more than 3,000 servicemen are expected to participate in the drills. “We are sending a clear message of vigilance to Russia: Not on our watch,” said Kaack.
Germany has handed over a first five-digit ammunition supply for Gepard guns to Ukraine, just produced on the restored production line. "I'm glad we started production so quickly and without bureaucratic hurdles," said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
Belgium purchased a stock of Sea Sparrow missiles following the decommissioning of the last German frigate which still used them. The missiles will be sent to Ukraine.
Belgium will not send their F-16's to Ukraine, Lieutenant Frédéric Goetynck said. "These planes have already flown for so many hours that their structure was worn out. You can't send fighter jets to Ukraine, which you wouldn't use yourself," he added.
Behind the scenes with decoys: A unique group of Ukrainian weapons experts race to produce artillery guns that will never be fired, radar trucks that cannot detect anything, and missiles without explosives.
The pieces are decoys that aim to draw Russian fire, wasting enemy ammunition, missiles and drones while protecting real equipment and the soldiers manning it.
They measure success by how quickly their products are destroyed. “When the military come to us and says ‘we are out of these’, it means we were totally successful in our job,” says one. [continue]
PM Maia Sandu: “Thank you for the warm welcome to the Netherlands, Mark Rutte. Appreciate your country’s consistent support as Moldova continues its rule of law reforms. Your efforts have fostered a closer relationship between our countries and I am committed to further enhancing our bilateral ties.”
Shoring up Moldova’s national security and strength is vital to our overall security.
Arvydas Anušauskas, Lithuanian Defence Minister, has said that the successor of Ukraine's current Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov will have to make efforts to establish relations with Western leaders, reports LRT. nušauskas stressed that Reznikov served as defence minister during the most challenging period and managed to build good relations with his colleagues from many countries. "He cannot automatically pass on his contacts. The new minister will have to make an effort to establish those contacts and channels," Anušauskas said. The Lithuanian Defence Minister voiced hope that the Ukrainian political leadership would continue working with Reznikov because of his "good connections and contacts".
Russian officials have criticised a plan to offer some of its swimmers the chance to return to international competitions ahead of the Paris Olympics, arguing it doesn’t go far enough.
The measure comes with conditions, AP reports. World Aquatics mandates no national symbols, plain white uniforms, and only one Russian and one Belarusian “neutral” athlete per event. That means no relays, no synchronized diving or water polo, and none of the artistic swimming duets and teams which have brought Russia a string of Olympic gold medals.
China indicated yesterday that its top leader, Xi Jinping, would skip the G20 summit in New Delhi this weekend, dealing a blow to India, the event’s host nation, and raising questions about Xi’s profile as a global statesman. A spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry said that China would send the premier, Li Qiang, to the event, but she declined to explain why.
Ex-Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio sentenced to 22 years over Capitol attack
A judge has sentenced Enrique Tarrio, the former Proud Boys leader convicted of seditious conspiracy in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, to 22 years in prison.
Tarrio, who once served as national chairman of the far-right extremist group, and three lieutenants were convicted by a Washington jury in May of conspiring to block the transfer of presidential power in the hopes of keeping Donald Trump in the White House after the Republican president lost the 2020 election.
Tarrio, who was not at the Capitol riot itself, was a top target of what has become the largest justice department investigation in American history.
Saudi Arabia wanted the names of 6000 anonymous Arab Spring dissidents from Twitter. At first, MBS tried to get their names using EDRs - requests under emergency circumstances. When that didn’t work, KSA bought Twitter.
They did so by threatening to pull Twitter out of their market (biggest in the Middle East) and by offering to invest in heavily in Twitter. They also positioned two spies inside Twitter who helped funnel the personal information on dissidents out of Twitter to KSA.
In 2011, they invested $300M. In 2022, MBS bought that investment for $1.5B, worth $1.9B later that year, making KSA (The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) the biggest shareholder of Twitter behind Elon Musk. Continue reading about it here.
Gokul Sahni, Insights into why Indonesia rejected the BRICS invite:
“Instead, Indonesia sees its national interests are best served by joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the “rich men’s club” made up of 38 mostly Western countries.”
“While Indonesia shares many of BRICS’ goals, for now, it is pursuing its own path, different from the other major emerging economies. A wise decision given the uncertainties about where BRICS is heading amid concerns that BRICS is turning into an anti-West group, led by China and Russia.”
“Besides, all the BRICS countries are having major economic problems thus raising questions about the group’s effectiveness in championing global economic reforms. But if Indonesia finds it is in its national interests to jump on the BRICS bandwagon, it will have no trouble adjusting..”
“The same source mentioned that the ministers who rejected the BRICS proposal argued that the coalition is fragile due to a lack of unity among member countries. India and China are embroiled in border conflicts. Russia’s presence in the grouping is also deemed as a liability.”
“Joining this would position Indonesia as aligning with specific political blocs, contradicting Indonesia's free and active foreign policy. Economic factors are also being considered. Individuals within the President's circle said Indonesia would not gain much benefit from joining BRICS.”
20 Days in Mariupol
Ukrainian filmmaker and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Mstyslav Chernov offers a window into the practices of conflict zone reporters and an unflinching, anguishing account of the 20 days he and colleagues spent covering Mariupol. "20 Days in Mariupol" is a @frontline and @AssociatedPress collaboration. The documentary premieres in select theaters this summer and comes to PBS this fall.
KyivIndie: Maksim Kuzminov, the 28-year-old Russian pilot of the Mi-8 helicopter who surrendered to Ukraine after landing in a Ukrainian airfield on Aug. 23, called on other Russian pilots to follow his example.
"If you do what I did, this kind of thing, you will not regret it at all. You will be provided for the rest of your life with absolutely everything," Kuzminov stated. "You will be offered work everywhere, whatever you want to do. You will just discover for yourself the world of colors."
The helicopter landing was part of a long-term Ukrainian operation, according to the Ukrainska Pravda media outlet.
The surrender was the result of more than six months of work by the Ukrainian military intelligence to bring the Mi-8 helicopter and its pilot to Ukraine. The pilot's family was evacuated from Russia and is in Ukraine with the pilot. Two other crew members on board did not know where the helicopter was headed and ran away back to Russia (they were close to the border). The media reports that they have been killed.
Rory Finnin, The Biggest Threat to Putin’s Control of Crimea—The Atlantic
Crimean Tatars have long helped shape Ukraine’s sense of self as a vibrant multiethnic, multiconfessional, multilingual place.
In may 2020, the Ukrainian writer Serhiy Zhadan stood before a crowd of battle-hardened Ukrainian marines at a base in Mariupol, roughly 40 miles from the Russian border. The soldiers had been holding the line for six years against Russian proxies in the Donbas, and Zhadan had come to boost morale with some poetry.
Glancing down at a tablet in his right hand, he recited a selection of his Ukrainian-language verse with well-worn confidence, as if he had known the audience forever. His last poem of the day had the urgent cadence of a telegraph:
How did we build our homes?
When you stand beneath winter’s skies
And the heavens turn and float away,
You understand you need to live where you are not afraid of death.
Zhadan’s poem speaks to the deep existential threat facing all of Ukraine today. It whispers a terrible knowledge of Russian occupation, which turns the fear of death into a unit to measure distance from home. But for all its wider resonance, Zhadan’s poem draws its inspiration from a specific group of Ukraine’s citizens. As he explained to the marines in Mariupol, “How Did We Build Our Homes?” is a work about the Crimean Tatars, the Indigenous people of the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.
Especially now, understanding the Crimean Tatars is key to understanding contemporary Ukraine and its vibrant civic national identity, which may be the most powerful force defending liberal democracy today.
“Our path with the Crimean Tatars is narrow and long,” Zhadan once remarked, “because they are our compatriots.” For decades, this small, resilient, Sunni Muslim nation has been helping shape Ukraine’s sense of self and advance a dynamic conversation about the long-standing idea of Ukraine as a multiethnic, multiconfessional, multilingual country—the idea of Ukraine as a homeland of homelands. [continue]
Putin influencers profiting from war propaganda—BBC
Russia's pro-war influencers are generating big advertising revenues from their social media coverage of the conflict, the BBC has found.
Alongside a daily ration of gruesome videos of drone strikes and false claims about Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, they share ads for anything from cryptocurrency to fashion.
Known in Russia as "Z-Bloggers" because of their support for a war often symbolised by the letter Z, they are often embedded with the Russian army and post footage from the front line where they call on young Russians to enlist.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, pro-war influencers have gained millions of followers on Telegram, the social media platform many Russians turned to after President Vladimir Putin banned Instagram, Facebook and Twitter.
That explosion in users has led to a surge in Telegram's advertising market.
War influencers have taken advantage of this. They sell ad spaces for companies looking to reach their young audiences.
To find out how much they charge, members of the BBC's Global Disinformation Team posed as hotel owners interested in posting ads on their channels.
We reached out to some of the most prominent players. [continue]