Sept 7: E-Stories
Day 560Kostiantyniv Izmail UAattacks CombatSit Umerov BlackSea Cuba NorKor BEL Fridman Blinken Armenia Oligarchs SAP A&P Gic Davis Rusich Ramus UtkinKaraganov CNN Tchakarova TimesRad KF Kalensky Baba
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky Official: a Russian artillery shelled the Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast at 2pm local time on Sept. 6. Zelenskyy condemned the attack, saying a market, shops and a pharmacy had been struck in the industrial city close to the battlefield, and about 30 km (19 miles) from the city of Bakhmut, where fighting has been heavy for months.
Interior minister Ihor Klimenko said that in addition to the 16 killed, at least 44 people were wounded in the attack and said it was on the central city market. 30 shopping kiosks, power lines, administrative building and the floor of an apartment building were damaged, according to the prosecutor general’s office.
AFP: One person was killed in Russian drone attacks in Izmail port district, Odesa region, early Wednesday, the regional governor reports. The UAF downed 17 Russian drones over the region on Monday.
The night-time attacks lasted three hours and targeted the Izmail district, Oleg Kiper said on Telegram.
After Russia’s non-renewal of the grain deal, it has ramped up attacks on Ukraine’s southern Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, home to ports and infrastructure vital for agriculture exports.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said Tuesday that the attacks had taken place “very, very close” to his country’s border.
Ukrainian forces shot down 23 out of a total 33 Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones and other missiles launched by Russia overnight from Engels in Russia's Saratov Oblast, the Air Force reported on Sept. 6.
The Russian forces struck one of Zaporizhzhia's districts, destroying a civilian infrastructure facility, and wounding two employees, JFO reported. The blast wave smashed windows in several high-rise buildings and educational institutions.
Reuters reports that Russia launched a missile attack on Kyiv at 05:50 am on Wednesday, with the country’s air defence systems shooting down all missiles before they reached their targets, the capital’s military administration said on the Telegram messaging app.
Meanwhile in Russia:
Russia claims drone shot down over Bryansk region. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed a Ukrainian drone was destroyed over Russia's Bryansk Oblast at around midnight on Sept. 5. Moscow didn't provide any further details on the alleged attack.
Russia has replaced the section of the Crimean Bridge damaged in a July 17 naval drone attack by Ukraine, reports RFE/RL journalist Mark Krutov. (How long will it hold up? We’re taking bets.)
Combat Situation Up-date:
The situation along the eastern frontline remains difficult and the main task for Ukraine’s troops is to ensure reliable defence and prevent the loss of strongholds in the Kupiansk and Lymansk directions, Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, said on Wednesday.
"The enemy does not abandon plans to reach the (administrative) borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, stubbornly prepares to take revenge and gain the operational initiative," Commander Syrskyi said.
Ukraine's Armed Forces continue their advance from Robotyne to Novoprokopivka, pushing forward towards Melitopol, as reported by the General Staff. Ukrainian fighters are also making progress in the Verbove area.
The Institute for the Study of War, citing geolocated footage, said today that Ukrainian light infantry has advanced beyond some of the anti-tank ditches and dense minefields that make up Russia’s layered defenses in Zaporizhzhia. it said it was unable to state that the defence was fully breached, because no Ukrainian heavy armour has been witnessed in the area.
Rustem Umerov has made comments after Ukraine’s parliament voted to approve him as defence minister on Wednesday. Writing on Facebook, he said:
Our main objective is victory. I will do everything possible and impossible for Ukraine’s victory – when we will liberate every centimetre of our country and each our person.
THIS IS A HUGE DEAL: Armenia recalls its plenipotentiary to the CSTO and announces joint military exercises with the US for next week. AND Anna Hakobyan, the wife of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, will participate in the Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen in Kyiv on 6 September, Radio Liberty Armenia reports. The media reports that it is likely that Hakobyan will deliver humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan previously stated that Yerevan is not an ally of Moscow in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. (Wowowowowow…I can’t stop saying this….wowowowowoowo.)
NYT: Oil and gas platforms have become a new target of attacks in the Black Sea. As Russia and Ukraine battle in the Black Sea with warships, small boats and drones, a new strategic target has emerged in the contested waters: oil and gas platforms. There are about 10 platforms in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, according to Andriy Klymenko, the Kyiv-based editor in chief of the Black Sea News publication. [continue]
CNN published MAXAR satelite pictures form Engels' airbase which show in high resolution how Russians are trying to protect their strategic bombers with rubber tires. CNN could not independently verify why the tires were placed on the aircraft, but experts say it could be a crude attempt at not only adding another layer of protection against Ukrainian drones but also to reduce the aircrafts' detectability aircrafts visibly, especially at night.
The Moscow Times report that entire battalions of Cuban mercenaries operate in the conflict zone, and the Russian Ministry of Defense is ready to conclude a contract even with illegal immigrants, sources from among the officers, the Cuban diaspora, as well as the recruiters themselves said. “When I was already behind the ribbon in the battalion, I was, to put it mildly, in shock: there are only Cubans and Serbs. Russian is spoken badly and not by all. How to work with them is not clear. And these are not some PMCs, they are all on a contract with the Ministry of Defense.
“A lot of young guys who come here for money straight from Cuba. These are not local Cubans, they do not stop in Moscow, they immediately sign a contract and go to fight,” the translator explains. - And then they disappear, relatives look for them through the Cuban diaspora, through social networks, and we have nothing to do with this. Most likely the person is already dead.”
CNN- Sanctions are working: US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Tuesday that discussions between North Korea and Russia on a potential deal that would allow Pyongyang to provide military support for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine are evidence that economic sanctions against Russia have succeeded in shrinking the country’s defense industrial base.
Steve Rosenberg for BBC News: The Kremlin has "nothing to say" about reports North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will meet Vladimir Putin in Russia next week. So, while we wait for the Russian authorities to say something, here's our report on Kim's 2019 visit to Vladivostok.
Putin has claimed in a television interview with Pavel Zaubin on Sept 5, that western powers had installed Zelenskyy, who is of Jewish heritage, as president of Ukraine to cover up the glorification of Nazism. In justifying its invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a “special military operation”, Putin accuses Kyiv’s leaders of being neo-Nazis pursuing a “genocide” of Russian-speakers – an assertion that Kyiv and Western countries dismiss as a baseless pretext for a war of acquisition.
Cheka-OGPU reports that authorities have removed almost all references to General Surovikin the Ministry of Defence website. There is no reference to Surovikin as the chief of the VKS, and no videos with the general, except for his address to the Wagner Group on the day of the mutiny. (Gone.)
DW: SAP will stop supporting Russian and Belarusian customers. German IT concern SAP will stop providing technical support of its software to clients in Russia and Belarus from January. All service contracts will expire at the end of 2023, the company said. The developer's clients have already started to outsource technical support of their systems to local IT companies, Kommersant writes. One of them may be Lab SP, established by former SAP employees.
Commodity companies, Nestle, Philip Morris International and similar Western corporations that continue to operate in Russia are the most likely potential targets for nationalization by the Russian authorities. This opinion was presented at an investment conference held by Barclays bank, British analysts. In early September, Moscow may publish a list of companies from "unfriendly countries," Joslyn Spottiswoode of London-based Alaco, a consulting firm on management, business risk assessment, dispute resolution, and others, said at a conference. Those on the list risk being expropriated, Barclays analysts added. in conversation with clients. This is reported by the Financial Times.
Erdogan’s comments on prospects of peace: "There are no promising prospects for achieving peace on the horizon," Erdogan said after he returned from a visit to Putin in Sochi. "Unfortunately, the war, which has been going on for 1.5 years, is still going on. We are ready to contribute when the parties ask for it."
Belarusians who would want to extend their documents would be forced to travel back to Belarus. Where many will be subjected to arrests, fines or even prison sentences for being critical of Lukashenka on social media or for donating to civil society initiatives.
This includes me. My Belarusian passport expires in February 2025, and I will become passportless after this. I am unable to go back to Belarus due to my social media posts and participation in protests. I am luckier than many fellow diaspora Belarusians as I am a UK citizen.
Russia‘s pipeline natural gas exports to the EU may fall to 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) this year, almost two-thirds lower than last year and a more than a six-fold drop from 2021, Russian state bank Veb said in a forecast today. It expects total Russian natural gas exports to fall this year to 100 bcm from 131 bcm in 2022. According to Reuters calculations, pipeline natural gas exports to Europe by Kremlin-controlled Gazprom have declined to around 17.7 bcm so far this year.
The Ukraine Security Service (SBU) has accused Ukrainian-born Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman of financing Russia's war against Ukraine.
Fridman is chairman of Alfa Group, a private conglomerate operating primarily in Russia and former Soviet states that spans banking, insurance, retail and mineral water production. He has a net worth of $11.4 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire’s Index. Fridman is also chairman of Alfa Bank, Russia’s fourth-biggest financial services firm and its largest private bank. The SBU made the following claims in a statement:
Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Fridman has “poured” around 2 billion rubles (about $20 million) into several military factories in Russia, including the Tula Cartridge Plant, which produces ammunition for the army, and the Urals Optical-Mechanical Plant, which produces high-tech equipment for combat aircraft and helicopters.
He uses the assets of the Alfa Group for the mass distribution of dry rations, clothing and other products under the trademark “Russian Army,” which are supplied to the military.
He organized the collection of material and technical assistance for the needs of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
His insurance companies are carrying out insurance for military equipment, as well as life and health insurance for Russian soldiers.
The UK government plans to recognize the Russian Wagner Group as a terrorist organization. The draft order, which will be presented in the parliament, will allow the assets of the PMC to be classified as terrorist property and seized.
Residents of Estonia have donated 158,400 euros for building bomb shelters in schools in eastern Ukraine. As reported by ERR, the funds were raised during a charity campaign August 17-31, including a concert 'Ukraine Thanks' in Tallinn.
"The Estonian people, as before, empathise and are ready to help the people of Ukraine. Donations exceeded even our expectations. We planned initially to build bomb shelters only for schools in Dobropillia, but now we can make a contribution to the safety of children in other populated areas," he said.
Lithuanian president: Corruption in Ukraine slows down weapon supplies. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told Lithuanian outlet LRT on Sept. 5 that corruption scandals in Ukraine have a significant impact on Western state's decision to supply Kyiv with weapons.
Poland’s president Andrzej Duda has said that the NATO member plans to spend more than 4% of its GDP on defence next year amid security concerns over the war in neighbouring Ukraine. He announced the sum of 137 billion zloty ($33 billion) at the opening of this year’s edition of the region’s biggest trade fair for military equipment, the MSPO in Kielce, Poland, AP reports.
Patron, the sapper, meets Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, ready to take him to see president Zelenskyy. (I love the pouch. He’s adorable and will be reported on in E-Stories.) Blinken's visit came on the same day as Ukrainian forces repelled a huge Russian missile strike against Ukraine's capital.
Reuters reports that during his two-day visit, Blinken announced a new package of U.S. assistance worth more than $1 billion, a senior State Department official.
"We will continue to be on the side of Ukraine, and today we are announcing new assistance for a total amount of more than $1 billion. This includes $665.5 million in new military and civilian security assistance," he said.
The Official Readout: Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal today in Kyiv, Ukraine. The two discussed the United States’ steadfast support for Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and reform efforts, and the U.S. commitment to work in concert with partners to address Ukraine’s energy, economic, and humanitarian needs.
In the US Senate, they expect additional funding for Ukraine in the amount of $24 billion to be approved by the end of September, according to Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republican minority in the Senate.
Zelensky fires governor of Donetsk Oblast. President Zelensky on Sept. 5 issued a decree to fire Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of Donetsk Oblast.
Zelensky Official: The Ukrainian government is preparing the power system for the winter. “A comprehensive plan to protect critical infrastructure facilities from anything a terrorist country might come up with. Reports from Prime Minister Shmyhal, Deputy Prime Minister Kubrakov, the entire energy sector, the State Special Communications Service, the General Staff and regional military administrations.”
Defense Ministry procured substandard drones from company owned by former MP's wife. Ukraine's Defense Ministry has ordered 55 HAWK drones from a company partly owned by the wife of former MP Boryslav Rozenblat, despite the drones having clear defects, investigative outlet Bihus.info reported on Sept. 4.
Government Says Ukraine Will Be Ready for EU Membership in Two Years, for NATO Even Sooner. Commenting on the statement by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, about the need to prepare for the EU enlargement by 2030, Stefanishyna emphasised in an interview with Voice of America that this does not mean Ukraine should wait for seven years for the opportunity to join.
"I think, we can join NATO sooner because we expect victory and the war end. One of the strongest, most powerful, and well-known armies in the world will be the biggest security guarantor for Europe and the entire European space," Stefanishyna pointed out.
Karaganov prepared a secret report for Putin. Migrants - everything, Russians - deportation to Siberia and hard labor—Newsland (Sergei Utkind’s take below)
A leaked report by Sergey Karaganov (co-authored by Aleksandr Kramarenko, Fyodor Lukyanov and Dmitry Trenin) is the quintessence of Karaganov's school of foreign policy.
The report suggests Russia will leave the OSCE, focus on "world majority" organisations instead, drop the "pacta sunt servanda" principle (already accomplished, isn't it?), arms control and non-proliferation are all outdated policies.
The report attacks the idea of strategic parity, which is the core of what Aleksey Arbatov is writing on nuclear issues, and criticises the view that any use of nuclear weapons would "inevitably lead" to a global nuclear war.
The report suggests military action in Ukraine had to be started much earlier, Ukraine's south and east are to be annexed and brainwashed, and the west of the country is to be bombed into an agrarian periphery (echoing notorious Morgenthau Plan for post-war Germany).
It looks like the report's co-authors (some of them often seen as more moderate than K.) signed up to Karaganov's well-known idea of preventive nuclear strikes against Poland. And their hope for Ukraine is that it will be no more.
While a couple of millions are to be resettled from Ukraine to Siberia (helping to move away from "West-centrism" and useful since "the West will remain adversarial for a long time").
While Karaganov's report reveals the anatomy of disastrous policies, this and similar papers are, of course, a reflection and a helping hand rather than the reason for what we are going through. They reflect and amplify what they believe is on the mind of THE decision-maker.
Even today this looks like a parody. Why are you sure, the report is real? Ok, Karaganov is dying and might like to take us all with him. But Lukyanov and Trenin aren't total idiots in the end, are they?
It actually feels very authentic, style including. The authors page has an asterix saying only the editor-in-chief (i.e. Karaganov) is responsible for the final product. And then, it was not supposed to be public. But still...
Another Russian mercenary group shows discontent with the Kremlin: ‘A sign of more to come’—France24
“Robotyne has been liberated,” Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar announced on August 28.
Although the tiny village, which had a pre-war population of fewer than 500 people, may be of little importance in itself, it lies along a strategic road that leads to the Russian-occupied road and railway hub of Tokmak. From there, another road leads to the key city of Melitopol, which, prior to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, was known to Ukrainians as the “gateway” to the peninsula. Last week’s victory was therefore an important advance for Ukraine.
Just a few days earlier, however, fighters from Rusich, a small Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group stationed at Robotyne’s front line, had threatened to lay down their arms – a move that may have contributed to Russia’s stinging loss there.
The official reason for the threat to lay down arms, Rusich explained in an August 25 statement on Telegram, was that one of the group’s top commanders and founding members, Yan Petrovsky, had been detained in Finland and faced extradition to Ukraine – and the Russian government was not doing much about it.
In a series of messages screen-grabbed by the research project Antifascist Europe, Rusich members expressed frustration with their treatment by the Russian authorities.
“If the country cannot protect its citizens, why should the citizens protect the country?” asked one.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the group did indeed seem to be operating near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, describing it as “a critical area of the front line where the Russian military command likely cannot afford for any units to rebel and refuse to conduct combat missions”.
Soon after ISW issued its analysis, Robotyne fell to Ukraine.
There has been no official confirmation – either from Rusich or the Russian defence ministry – that the group’s fighters did stop fighting.[continue]
Russians banking on a civil war in the US
Julia Davis, Meanwhile in Russia: propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show bemoaned no longer having someone like Dana Rohrabacher in the US Congress, but placed their hopes in Trump and Ramaswamy, as they pined for a civil war in the US.
Tim Ramus, “Starve, Stretch, And Strike”: How Ukraine Plans To Beat Putin—1945
Russia’s offensive to “reclaim” Ukraine is ostensibly still in full swing, but Ukrainian armed forces have seemingly found an edge they have over Russia’s military might – drone attacks.
“Starve, stretch, and strike”
UK’s Chief of the Defense Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, describe Ukraine’s strategy as “starve, stretch, and strike”, where Ukrainian military targets key infrastructures as opposed to committing all its forces to fight on the front lines.
This way, Ukraine hopes to hobble the Russian military’s capability and capacity to resupply, which will help Ukrainian forces punch through Russia’s front lines and eventually drive the invaders back.
The drone strikes seem to be working and are seemingly a major contributor to Russian troops’ reported sink of morale.
A recent intelligence report from the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense indicates that Russia has been experiencing a spate of soldiers refusing to go back to fighting, resulting in their incarceration.
The report says that roughly 100 soldiers a week are sent to jail for refusing to obey orders and return to the front lines, and estimates that in a year’s time, more than 5,000 soldiers will be imprisoned for refusing to fight.
Russia has reportedly been using sheer numbers in the hope of overwhelming Ukrainian forces, even throwing poorly trained soldiers into battle.
This, along with problems with resupply and high attrition rates – partly attributable to the drone strikes – have exacerbated disillusionment among troops about the war effort. [continue]
Programming note
Out tomorrow Kremlin File’s latest episode with Evelyn Farkas, US national security advisor, and Executive Director of the McCain Institute.
