Sept 8 Buonasera Mag
Day 197: UA's east & south offensive, Melitopol, Biden, CH parts, IAEA, Poland, Baltic States & EU visa ban. Arts & Posts: US Dept of State Avdeeva, EU-VDL, Kenyon, Boot, Crying Oligarchs, Vetrov
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Zelensky: “This week we have good news from Kharkiv region,” he says, adding “it is not the time to name the places to which the Ukrainian flag is returning.” He thanks several units.
Ukraine has now recaptured more than 700 sq km (270 sq miles) of territory in Kharkiv and in the south, according to a Ukrainian general. Speaking at a public briefing, Brig Gen Oleksiy Gromov said Ukrainian forces had advanced as far as 50km (31 miles) into Russian lines and retaken more than 20 villages.
These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains,” the institute said.
The level of shock and frank discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces.
Stories we’re following…
The Kherson Oblast occupation administration announced that the Kherson annexation referendum will occur on November 4, confirming ISW’s prior assessment that occupation authorities will likely delay annexation referenda.
Official: Over half of Kherson Oblast residents have evacuated. Around half a million people have evacuated partially-occupied Kherson Oblast, said Yaroslav Yanushevych, the head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration.
Ukraine to set up coordination headquarters for liberated territories. The Ministry for the Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories said that Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk would head the newly-created government entity that will specialize in reintegrating territories liberated by Ukrainian troops.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken made a surprise trip to Kyiv today as the United States unveiled nearly $2.7 billion in new military support to Ukraine.
US secretary of state Anthony Blinken told Volodymyr Zelenskiy the war with Russia was in a “pivotal moment” as Ukraine’s military continues its counteroffensive in the south of the country.
Zelensky fires two heads of intelligence agency's regional branches. Yevhen Netuzhylov, head of the Chernihiv Oblast branch of the SBU was replaced by Oleksiy Lyakh. In Kherson Oblast, most of which remains under occupation, Artem Borysevych was appointed to replace Serhiy Kryvoruchko, who was fired in March for his failure to protect the region from Russian troops at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion in February.
The headquarters of the "United Russia" party in Melitopol has been destroyed. It was one of the buildings being used to prepare Russia's fake referendum to "annex" the region.
Activists from Greenpeace blocked a shipment of Russian gas from unloading at a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Sweden today, the terminal owner and environmental group said.
President Biden rejected the call to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism: “it could drive critical humanitarian and commercial actors away from facilitating food exports to help mitigate the global food crisis and jeopardize the Black Sea port deal.”
Russian Senator Konstantin Kosachev says that the IAEA has lost its legitimacy for not blaming Ukraine for shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
The European Union’s Baltic members agreed to coordinate a visa ban for most Russian citizens at their borders and will aim to pass national measures by mid-September.
Poland and the Baltic states have announced they will temporarily restrict access for Russian citizens holding EU visas. The prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland said in a statement that the move had been taken to address “public policy and security threats” arising from the “substantial and growing influx of Russian citizens” into the EU.
Pentagon working on 'detailed analysis' how to support Ukraine's military long term. The U.S. Defense Department is preparing a "detailed analysis and working out how to support the Ukrainian military in the medium and long term," including after Russia's war has ended,
The Pentagon has halted delivery of F-35 fighters to the military services and foreign militaries after Lockheed Martin discovered a metal component used in the jet’s engine was produced in China.
At a UN Security Council meeting on Sept. 7, Deputy Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN Khrystyna Hayovyshyn said that 2.5 million people have been forcibly deported from Ukraine to Russia's “isolated and depressed regions of Siberia and the far east," including 38,000 children, CNN reports.
Russia’s Education Ministry has removed all references to Ukraine and the “special military operation” from the curriculum for its "patriotic" lesson series, Conversations About What's Important, after a slew of complaints from parents and teachers.
Steve Bannon surrendered to New York City authorities and is expected to face charges later today. Steve Bannon faces money laundering, conspiracy and fraud charges in a border wall fund-raising case, a new indictment says.
Trump News: A federal grand jury issued subpoenas related to a super PAC created by Donald Trump to raise money as he promoted baseless voter fraud claims as per the NYT.
We are awaiting official news from Buckingham Palace on the Queen Elizabeth’s health. The world is watching.
VDL’s 5-point plan for energy security
Ursula von der Leyen outlined a five-point plan in response to an energy price crisis, driven by the Russian shutdown of the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline but exacerbated by the climate crisis and lingering effects of the Covid pandemic.
Low-carbon energy companies, renewable and nuclear suppliers that have reaped “enormous revenues … they never dreamed of” from generating electricity will face a windfall tax, Von der Leyen said, with proceeds earmarked to help domestic consumers and companies pay “astronomical” bills.
Under EU energy rules, the price of electricity is determined by the cost of the most expensive fuel, usually gas, rather than cheaper renewables and nuclear power. As a result of all-time-high gas prices, low-carbon electricity generators have been rewarded with a big increase in income.
“These revenues do not reflect their production costs,” Von der Leyen said. “So it is now time for the consumers to benefit from the low costs of low-carbon sources.” The commission, she said, proposed “to re-channel these unexpected profits” to allow member states to support vulnerable households and companies.
FiveBy, New Paradigms: Director of Risk Intelligence Discusses Sanctions
Are sanctions still relevant in a multipolar world? The answer is nuanced. Sanctions are effective foreign policy when done intelligently. They work when goals are specific, and the implementation and enforcement strategies are focused and multilateral. In coordination with our partners and allies, sanctions are most effective against illicit actors and states.
Max Boot, Putin is losing his ‘war of choice’ in Ukraine- WaPo
There is no room for complacency. Ukraine can prevail only if it continues to receive substantial Western aid, and it needs even more assistance (fighter aircraft, long-range rockets and tanks) to complete the liberation of its soil. But more than six months into Putin’s “war of choice,” Russia’s probable defeat is coming into focus. What remains to be determined is the magnitude and impact of that defeat.
Former UK defence secretary Michael Fallon clashed with the French president Emmanuel Macron while speaking at an economic forum in Poland:
I do not understand people that say that Putin must not be humiliated by failure. He needs to fail and to be humiliated if we are not to concede he has any kind of legitimate right to be any part of Ukraine. If we weaken now by allowing Russia to continue along this path it seems the Baltic States, Moldova, Georgia, the West Balkans - all of them - will be vulnerable in the future.
Politicians need to better and more fully explain the sacrifice that is going to be required not just in the field of energy but in terms of fiscal transfers. This is a war not just of territory but of principle.
Young Russians can enjoy the beaches of the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea whereas every young Ukrainians has in one way or another to defend their country. Even in an autocratic regime where the media is controlled, you cannot exempt the Russian population from proper responsibility for what is being done in their name.
Financial Times, Russia’s melancholy oligarchs
Since Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, dozens of Russian tycoons have had their western bank accounts frozen and some have been forced to give up their stakes in western companies and lost their Mediterranean mansions. But six months later, there is little sign that the sanctions have pressured the oligarchs into starting a “palace coup” against Putin.
Instead, they have had a very different impact. Increasingly angry at western governments, Russia’s oligarchs are scrambling for ways to cling on to what remains of their wealth — including through the sorts of buyout proposals that Fridman presented.
Barrett & Leonnig, Material on foreign nation’s nuclear capabilities seized at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago- WaPo
A document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and private club last month, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring concerns among U.S. intelligence officials about classified material stashed in the Florida property.
Recorded Future, The Chinese Threat Landscape
Last week, Recorded Future’s Insikt Group, the company’s research division, released three new reports on the Chinese threat landscape. You can access the full reports here:
Propaganda disseminated by party-state media is likely to become increasingly diverse [Read full report here]
Chinese cybercrime has grown bigger than ever, in its bordering regions [Read full report here]
RedAlpha is likely attributable to contractors conducting cyber-espionage activity on behalf of the Chinese state [Read full report here]
My buddy Vadym Vetrov
Let me get personal for a minute. Meet Vadym, whose videos I’ve been posting in EuroFile. He’s also come along to a few of our Twitter Spaces providing assessments from Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv.
Vadym has been an important contact since the beginning of the Big War. Every morning since February 24, he’s been reporting from Ukraine in a Club House group monitoring the news. When we don’t hear from him, we drop him a message just to see if he’s ok.
We’re monitoring every HIMAR that hits a target, absorbed by the strategic and tactical aspects of the Big War but essentially, this war is about real people. Real people losing their freedom, subjected to aggression, losing their families and their livelihoods, their villages, their schools and hospitals.
I’ll continue featuring Vadym’s work and hopefully, some time soon, I’ll be posting a photo of Vadym and I sharing an ice cream in his homeland.
