Sept 8: E-Stories
Day561 RUattacks CombatSit Musk UAattacks Umerov HUN ROM BehindLines Genocide Allies Malofeev Denmark ecocide genocide JP Pepsi A&P Gic KyivIndie Kyslytsya Kenyon Zakaria Panyi KyivIndie Yermolenko
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Update: Russian attack on Kostiantynivka kills 17, injures 32. The number of casualties from a Russian attack on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast today has risen to 17 killed and 32 injured, the Internal Affairs Ministry said on Sept. 6 at 6 p.m. local time.
Governor: Russian missile strike on Zaporizhzhia injures 2 people. Russian forces launched a missile attack on Zaporizhzhia city on Sept. 6, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Yurii Malashko reported on Telegram.
Governor: Russia shells 9 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces launched 36 attacks at communities along the Sumy Oblast border on Sept. 6, causing a total of 218 explosions, local military administration reported on Telegram.
Confirmation that parts found in Romania this week belonged to a Russian drone would be a serious violation of sovereignty, Romanian president Klaus Iohannis said. Discovery of parts of what could be a Russian drone were found days after Ukraine said Russian drones had detonated on the Nato alliance member’s land, Reuters reported.
CNN: Elon Musk secretly ordered his engineers to turn off his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet, according to an excerpt adapted from Walter Isaacson’s new biography of Elon Musk.
As Ukrainian submarine drones strapped with explosives approached the Russian fleet, they “lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly,” Isaacson writes.
Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12. [continue]
Meanwhile in Russia
Russian official claims drones shot down over Rostov-on-Don, injuring 1. Two drones flying over the Russian city Rostov-on-Don were shot down the night of Sept. 7, damaging cars and injuring one person, Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubev claimed in a Telegram post.
It’s near the headquarters of the southern military district command, which plays a key role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and was one of the sites seized by late Wagner leader Yevgheny Prigozhin during his aborted mutiny in June.
Regional governor Vasily Golubev said on Telegram that at least three buildings and several cars had been damaged and one person was injured.
In Moscow, near Zhukovsky airport an explosion was heard. It is reported that a drone was shot down over Ramenskiy district in the Moscow region. Its debris fell on the roadway, breaking windows in several high-rise buildings.
Local witnesses reported explosions in occupied Mariupol and Manhush.
The warehouse reportedly stored 9K121 Vikhr missiles which are launched from Ka-50 and Ka-52 attack helicopters.
Combat Situation Up-date: (map- War Mapper)
US intelligence: 'Realistic possibility' that Ukraine can break through remaining Russian lines on the southern front by the end of 2023, Trent Maul, the director of analysis of the U.S.' Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), said on Sept. 6.
Russian occupying authorities in Zaporizhzhia say Russian forces ‘tactically’ withdrew from Robotyne.
WarGonzo early up-date:
AFU advanced towards Luhove, SE of Kam'yans'ke
Russian units unsuccessfully counter-attacked near Robotyne.
AFU tried to break trough towards Novoprokopivka and liberated new positions.
AFU regained a number of positions in Kreminna forest
NYT: Two months after the United States shipped an initial tranche of cluster munitions to Ukraine to ensure its troops did not run out of ammunition, three American officials said the Biden administration is planning to send more, and soon.
A senior western official said that commentators and media should not engage in a “fixation on how many hundreds of meters have been achieved today” as they monitor the pace of Ukraine’s counter offensive progress after three months. Speaking to journalists on condition of anonymity, the official, familiar with Kyiv’s strategy, said that Ukraine is making “incremental but methodical progress” on parts of the southern and eastern fronts but accepted it was “slower than expected a couple of months ago”.
Ukraine is making progress with a counter offensive started in June to reclaim territory seized by Russia, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.
“The Ukrainians are gradually gaining ground... they have been able to breach the defensive lines of the Russian forces, and they are moving forward,” Stoltenberg told lawmakers in remarks at the European Parliament.
Parliament approves Rustem Umerov as new defense minister. Ukraine's Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, voted in support of appointing Rustem Umerov as the new defense minister after Oleksii Reznikov's resignation, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak reported on Sept. 6.
CNN: Romania confirms that Russian drone fragments fell on Romanian territory. Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar confirmed that parts of a Russian drone fell on Romania's soil after a strike against a Ukrainian port on the Danube River, CNN reported on Sept. 6. What will Nato do?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the fall of the wreckage of the Russian drone in Romania was not a deliberate attack.
"We do not have any information that would indicate a deliberate attack by Russia. We await the results of the ongoing investigation," he said.
Soldiers of the "Steel Border" raised the Ukrainian flag in the settlements of Stroivka and Topoli. The settlements are located right on the border with the Russian Federation. After the de-occupation of the Kharkiv region, no one entered this territory due to mines, but now the border guards have paved a safe way and raised the Ukrainian flag.
Behind the Lines: The Russians in the temporarily occupied Mariupol began to issue insulin to diabetes patients only if they hold a Russian passport, reports the Mariupol City Council. The city council posted a video where a resident, who came to Mariupol Hospital No. 1, talks about an "innovation" for insulin-dependent patients: to get the drug, you need to have a Russian passport.
"It is impossible to get help, vital treatment, get a job, or move freely without a passport. People have to choose – either get a document and have at least some rights, or die," Vadym Boichenko, the legally elected Mariupol Mayor, said.
Behind the Lines: Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Danube river ports will slow down the export of grains and other routes need to be enhanced, Romanian president Klaus Iohannis said. Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta is Ukraine’s largest alternative export route, with grains arriving by road, rail or barge on the Danube. Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest grain exporters. President Iohannis, speaking late on Wednesday at a summit of Three Seas Initiative countries in Bucharest, said:
Of course the attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube are a huge problem. Of course it will in a way slow down exports.
We will enhance the other routes, we accepted Ukrainian maritime transports through our Romanian territorial waters off the Black Sea, we will continue to enhance exports on the rail and on the road.
Szabolcs Panyi: The Orbán government's anti-U.S. rhetorics has reached a new level. Now they're almost on par with Russia, Iran, or even North Korea. It seems to me that they're building a narrative to frame possible U.S. sanctions against corrupt Hungarian individuals as 'political revenge'.
Ukraine’s UN Rep. Sergiy Kyslytsya: “16 people killed after a russian missile struck a market in eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk while putler’s envoy to UN called for a UNSC meeting on 12 Sept on Western arms supplies to Ukraine negatively impacting prospects for resolution of crisis. His place is in the dock:”
ISW update: Ukrainian and Russian sources are reporting that the Russian defence industry is facing “growing challenges in replacing basic supplies in addition to known challenges in rebuilding its stocks of precision weapons”.
Andriy Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), said that Russia can only produce “dozens” of Kalibr cruise missiles and smaller numbers of Iskander missiles per month, which will not enable it to replenish its pre-2022 stocks. Yusov also said that Russia was struggling to obtain modern optical equipment, electronics, chips, and circuits.
Russian sources meanwhile noted that Moscow is struggling to find enough rubber to replace worn tyres on its military vehicles, which could become even more of a problem in winter when conditions worsen.
Soldiers in the war with Ukraine will begin to be trained to teach "Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland" in schools, Russian Minister of Education Sergei Kravtsov said, TASS reports. Kravtsov recalled that from September 1, 2024, the Fundamentals of Life Safety (OBZh) will be replaced by a new subject, which will focus on basic military training, and people with experience will be required here.
Russia said on Wednesday it will soon finalise its side of the route for the “power of Siberia 2” pipeline, a huge project to deliver more natural gas to China, AFP reports. Moscow plans to start building the pipeline next year, after its war in Ukraine forced it to move away from the European market in favour of Asian buyers. But the schedule for its completion remains unclear.
Russia’s Social Insurance Fund stops publishing disability data after journalists used the information to track injured soldiers. To estimate the number of soldiers disabled by injuries sustained in the war in Ukraine, investigative journalists at Mediazona studied records released by Russia’s Social Insurance Fund on disability payments. On Wednesday, Mediazona noticed that the agency no longer reports these data. In fact, the entire “Analytics” section has disappeared from the Social Insurance Fund’s website.
Up-date on the Surovikin info deletion from MoD website: Surovikin has been reassigned to a new position at the Commonwealth of Independent States. The ISW says the reassignment fits the pattern of ‘underperforming’ generals being relocated to external areas and peripheral locations “as a form of punishment”.
US president Joe Biden leaves for the G20 in India today aiming to boost alliances at a summit where global tensions will be highlighted by the absence of the Chinese and Russian leaders. Deep disagreements on Russia‘s war in Ukraine and on how to help emerging nations tackle climate change are expected during the two-day meeting in New Delhi.
CNN: Western officials meet in UAE to discuss sanctions against Russia. Western officials gathered in the United Arab Emirates to discuss sanctions against Russia amid fears that certain technology exports could be weaponized by the Russian military in its war against Ukraine, CNN reported on Sept. 6.
Fareed Zakaria: What did Wagner leave behind in Africa? On the topic of business, Sean McFate—an international-security professor at the National Defense University—argues in a New York Times opinion essay that Prigozhin has left behind a mercenary blueprint others can repeat.
Outside of its activities in Ukraine and Syria, Wagner has been known to offer security services to African leaders in exchange for lucrative mineral deals. As the global green-energy transition requires more mined metals, some deposits of them lying beneath politically unstable terrain, McFate suggests we should “expect a keener interest by private armed actors led by a conflict entrepreneur to step into the breach, like a general contractor coming in to fix your home. This was apparently the Prigozhin model. (Russian President Vladimir) Putin might replace his general contractor, but not the Wagner forces.”
The Tajani-Nurtleu meeting. On Tuesday, right after visiting China for the most delicate of missions, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stopped in Kazakhstan. There, he met with his counterpart Murat Nurtleu, with whom he signed a memorandum of understanding – the first of its kind between Rome and Astana – centred on critical raw materials and renewables. The FM also announced that Italy will soon inaugurate the Italian Institute of Culture in Almaty, “demonstrating how much we believe in cultural diplomacy.” Fun Fact: Italy is Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner in Europe.
On September 6, Danish PM Mette Frederiksen met with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv. In a speech to members of the Verkhovna Rada, she promised further Danish support for Ukraine.
"Your struggle is also our struggle. The world sees the incredible strength of the Ukrainian people and their will to bring peace back to Europe," she said during a speech in the Ukrainian parliament.
Denmark will allocate more than $43 million for the reconstruction of Ukraine. During her visit to Kyiv, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen promised the funds for reconstruction, humanitarian support and other things.
Ukraine will receive more than 150 drones selected by Ukraine itself from the French company Delair, paid for by the French government. This was announced by French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
Zelensky to consult with European integration minister on asset declaration law central to EU accession talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will decide whether to veto a draft law on asset declarations after consultations with Olha Stefanishyna, the deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, he told journalists on Sept. 6.
UK to recognize Wagner Group as a terrorist organization. The U.K. will officially declare the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization, according to a on Sept. 6 statement from the British Home Office. The Russian private military company will join al-Qaeda and ISIS on the list of proscribed terrorist organizations in the U.K.
Ariana Gic, human rights lawyer: Russia commits in Ukraine ALL 5 acts prohibited in the Genocide Convention’s Article II:
Evidence of any ONE of the five prohibited acts is sufficient to meet the legal test.
Russia is not only committing genocide, but doing so in every possible manner.
There is NO ambiguity.
Japan launched a lunar mission on Thursday, overcoming multiple failures and delays to become the fifth country to head to the moon. The mission, which follows similar efforts by India and Russia, will aim to deposit a high-precision moon lander on a small crater on the near side of the moon in four to six months.
WaPo: Republicans in the House of Representatives seem more open than ever to impeaching President Biden. But they are making moves without any evidence of wrongdoing. Any accusations would probably be tied to Hunter Biden’s business dealings. Republicans have been aggressively investigating the president’s son for more than a year. They haven’t found any evidence of wrongdoing by the Biden family, and they often overstate their claims. But they are alleging there’s more to be found, and some say that’s reason enough to take the first step toward impeachment, called an impeachment inquiry.
Monique: This tactic has become a fixed feature of Italian politics: launch an accusation, even the most absurd, and you get free TV coverage and precious media time in all other outlets. It also serves to extend electoral cycle into a never-ending campaign, and increase funding drives for campaigns.
Perhaps more importantly, they act as a distraction by redirecting attention to a manufactured crisis. Why aren’t we talking about Tuberville who has been single-handedly blocking critical military appointments instead of talking about the ‘evil’ Bidens? Why isn’t the media focusing on Trump’s hefty indictments and calling out people like McCarthy for trying to distract from what is truly important?
It’s disappointing that the media isn’t pushing back on the framing that is continuously proposed by malign political actors: in other words, they’re dropping the ball once again as they did in 2016, and this when we are much more aware of the tactics and strategy the yippy yappy Trump uses consistently and blatantly.
Szabolcs Panyi: Hungary's government has essentially canceled all major infrastructure developments for Budapest and its metro area, including important railway projects, many co-funded by the EU. The move is seen as a retaliation partly against the opposition-controlled capital, led by Gergely Karascony, partly against Western-minded former state secretary for transportation David Vetézy. Vitézy has been openly speaking out against the current government's transportation and development policies. They money is getting funnelled into Fidesz stongholds in Pest County and the city of Debrecen. The local elections are in mid-2024.
Ukrainian scholar Ihor Kozlovskyi who survived imprisonment in Donetsk dies at 69. One of Ukraine's most prominent scholars, university professor Ihor Kozlovskyi, passed away overnight in Kyiv at age 69 following a heart attack, his family and friends said on Sept. 6. In 2014, he was one of the organizers of “Prayer for Ukraine” in the occupied Donetsk, for which he was arrested and tortured and then later on swapped in a Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange.
World's first ladies-gentlemen discuss mental health at Zelenska’s summit in Kyiv.
From Left to Right: Juraj Rizman, partner of Slovakian President, First Lady of Czech Republic Eva Pavlova, Lithuanian First Lady Diana Nausediene, Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska, President Volodymyr Zelensky, and his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak photographed during the third Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen in Kyiv on Sept. 6, 2023. (Photo: Olena Zelenska/Facebook)
Volodymyr Yermolenko: The Reality of Russian Occupation
Ukrainians who lived through Russian occupation or escaped from Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine tell us some repetitive stories. Some clear patterns.
1. Often people are not allowed to leave their villages. Supplies (incl. food supplies) are often cut.2. Russia doesn't bring Russian law, but brings lawlessness. People lose their rights - even those who sympathize with Russia. Your house can be taken by someone else; your car can be confiscated; you can be abducted, nobody would investitage.
3. Lots of people who are missing. We don't know whether they are alive or not. Family members of these people are often forced to keep silent, violence will be applied to them as well.
4. If you live for months without food supplies (shops are closed, you cannot leave your village), you can only rely on your land, domestic animals and what you have in your personal food savings. Ukrainian peasants usually have a lot - at least they can survive.
5. Some patterns - like not letting people leave their villages for months - remind of Holodomor, the Stalin's artificial famine in 1932-1933. Clearly these practices "live" in the minds and practices of the Russian soldiers and commanders.
6. Tortures are applied widely. Esp. tortures with electric current. The Russian torturers call it "a call to putin". So they themselves acknowledge that the acts of cruelty should bear putin's name.
Ukrainska Pravda: Pepsi Co is arming Russia
Pepsi Co is doing business as usual in Russia, and increased revenue in 2022. They even launched a new product during the war and currently have hundreds of job vacancies there.
Pepsi Co has paid $115M in taxes to Russia last year. The most modern Russian tank, the T-14, costs $7M, so that's 16 new tanks thanks to Pepsi Co. Taxes are absolutely going to war efforts.
Pepsi Co was listed as an International War Sponsor by Ukraine's National Corruption Prevention Agency on Sept. 1. The airline SAS has just banned Pepsi Co products, so has the Finnish parliament naming it "Blood Pepsi" (Sept. 5, more bans coming).
Please stop using any of their brands, which include Lay's Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, Pepsi-Cola, Mountain Dew, Quaker, SodaStream, and others. Lay's chips were reportedly found in Russian soldiers' food rations.
Ukrainian intercepts show Russian soldiers’ anger at losses, disarray—Reuters
Ukraine’s counteroffensive was in its second month when Andrey, a Russian soldier, called his wife to say his unit was taking heavy casualties. They were so badly equipped, he said, it felt like the Soviet forces in World War Two.
“They are fucking us up,” Andrey said by telephone on July 12, comparing the onslaught to the worst moments of Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union. “No fucking ammunition, nothing ... Shall we use our fingers as bayonets?”
The conversation was one excerpt from 17 phone calls placed by Russian soldiers fighting in the south and east of Ukraine that were intercepted in the first two weeks of July by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the country’s main intelligence agency.
The expletive-laden intercepts, shared with Reuters by a Ukrainian intelligence source, provide a rare - albeit partial - glimpse into the conditions of some Russian soldiers as Kyiv prosecuted a major counteroffensive, which started in early June, two military analysts told Reuters.
Reuters was unable to determine how representative the intercepts are of the conditions in Russia’s armed forces. The Ukrainian intelligence source said they illustrated the challenges facing Russian soldiers but did not elaborate on how the recordings were selected.
Neil Melvin, director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defence and security think tank headquartered in London, said the calls appeared to confirm some Russian forces were thrown into defensive operations with little preparation and were sustaining high casualties, sowing tensions between soldiers and commanders.