Sept 9: Saturday Stories
Day 562: KryvyiRih Kherson CombatSit ZaporizhzhyaDir RUdom BehindLines eco Putin Zelenov China BankRussia LITH IRE KerchB ShamElex Belarus A&P UKDef Peterson Davis Zelenov Panyi KF Zakayev Bendett
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukraine downs 16 of 20 attack drones Russia launched at Odesa, Mykolaiv regions. In the early hours of Friday, September 8, Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down 16 out of 20 enemy Shahed-136/131 one-way attack drones over Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
A Russian a missile attack on three administrative buildings in Kryvyi Rih.
Interior minister Ihor Klymenko said that a Russian missile hit a police building in the Kryvyi Rih on Friday, killing a policeman injuring 40 people, and destroying the building.
rescue workers pulled several people out of the rubble after the attack on president Zelenskyy’s home town, Klymenko said on Telegram. 7 residential buildings, including a high-rise building, suffered damage as well.
A Russian airstrike killed 3 civilians and injured 4 other people in a village in Kherson on Friday, interior minister Ihor Klymenko said. The attack comes as the voting for Russian-installed legislatures in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions begins on Friday.
Women with medical education to be considered eligible for military enlistment. Women with a medical or pharmaceutical education must register at military enlistment offices from Oct. 1, Fedir Venislavskyi, President Volodymyr Zelensky's representative in parliament, said on Sept. 7.
Combat Situation Up-date:
General Staff UAF, Andriy Kovalev: Ukrainian Forces continue to conduct an offensive operation in the Bakhmut and Melitopol directions.
Melitopol direction: offensive actions of the UAF were successful in the areas south of Robotyne, and in the Bakhmut direction - south of the city of Bakhmut. “They are entrenched at the achieved boundaries,” the spokesman said.
“The AFU controls half of Klishchiivka, the Russians are retreating along the line of Andriivka and Kurdyumivka, south of Bakhmut,” this was announced by the deputy commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Maksym Zhorin.
Russian channels reported on late Friday night that their forces launched counter attacks near Pryyutne. Unclear what the result is, but it interfered current offensive operations, and that the AFU entered Novomaiors'ke. To be verified.
Border guards raise flags in two settlements near Russian border. Soldiers of Ukraine's Border Guard Service raised state flags in Stroivka and Topoli, two settlements in Kharkiv Oblast near the Russian border that have been previously inaccessible due to mines, the State Border Guard Service reported on Sept. 7.
National Guard: Russia moving troops to southern front line to strengthen defense. Russia is relocating its troops to the southern front line from other sectors, as Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, an official within the National Guard said on Sept. 7.
The UK government has announced British military and security services will monitor the Black Sea in a bid to deter Russia from striking cargo ships that are transporting grain from Ukraine to developing countries.
Meanwhile in Russia
"Two powerful explosions rang out at midnight near the Berdyansk Municipal Lyceum where Russians had located one of their 'polling stations' used in their unlawful elections," Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov reports. Fedorov also reports that the United Russia headquarters in Polohy was blown up when party members were "drawing" the results of pseudo-elections there.
In Bryansk, an unknown UAV hit the Silicon EI microelectronics plant again. It is the largest largest microelectronics plant in the area. According to the Russian media, the company manufactures components for the Pantsir air defense systems and the Iskanders. This factory was previously attacked on the night of August 30.
"Putin killed Prigozhin, we have such information," Zelenskyy said at a summit in Kyiv. "Putin has lost his temper - as a person, as a politician. In Ukraine, there were no days of mourning when the sky got rid of beauty. For us, this is one less terrorist," he added.
A message from Putin on the 'liberation of Donbas' in World War II.
"I am sure that nine years ago, at these sacred borders for us, the example of the soldiers of the Great Patriotic War led their descendants, the militiamen of Donbas."
"They (the West) provoked this conflict in Ukraine and took advantage of it. With one purpose of limiting our economic growth and restraining Russia's development."
Monitoring group: Russia withdraws almost all military aircraft from Belarus. The Russian Air Force has withdrawn almost all of its aircraft stationed in Belarus, leaving behind only one Su-25 attack plane, the monitoring group Belarusian Hajun reported on Sept. 8. According to the anti-government group, Russia pulled back its aviation group on Aug. 5.
Russian air defences have downed a aerial drone over northern Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-installed head of the peninsula’s administration, said on Friday.
Behind the Lines: Ukraine’s foreign ministry on Friday condemned “sham elections” being staged by Russia in occupied Ukrainian territories, saying they were “worthless” and would have no legal standing. The ministry called on Ukraine’s international partners to denounce the votes and not to recognise the results, Reuters reports. "Nova Kakhovka is Ukraine" is written by one of the voters.
Behind the Lines: Around 90% of Ukrainian POWs have endured torture, rape or other abuse, according to Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin. “Russia established an elaborate system of torture and ill-treatment of the detained Ukrainians, both prisoners of war and civilians.”
In Mariupol, Chinese opera singer Wang-Fang sang Katyusha at the ruins of the drama theater in which Russia killed dozens to hundreds of people. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called this an example of complete moral degradation and expects an explanation from China. (This is sick.)
Cuba arrests 17 over suspected 'trafficking' for Russia's war in Ukraine. Seventeen people have been arrested in Cuba over suspected links to an alleged Russian trafficking network recruiting men for the war effort in Ukraine, the interior ministry said. AFP reports:
The Cuban government said Monday it was working to dismantle a “trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into the military forces involved in military operations in Ukraine.”
Cesar Rodriguez, who is heading the investigation, said on national television on Thursday that “17 people have been arrested so far,” without giving their nationalities.
He said one person was suspected of being an “organiser of these activities” while two others were suspected recruiters.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: a visibly deflated head of RT Margarita Simonyan bemoaned Russia's lack of allies, complained about the country's terrible summer and described grim realities of an invasion that suddenly came home.
For the first time in nearly four years new staff have been allowed at the Russian embassy in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, the delegation has said, after anti-pandemic measures blocked most travel and lead many embassies to close. Russia would be only the second embassy known to be allowed new staff, after China’s new ambassador entered in March. Their arrival comes amid US officials’ suggestions that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may visit Russia soon to see president Vladimir Putin, possibly to discuss arms deals.
China’s vice premier, Zhang Guoqing, will visit Vladivostok, Russia, between 10 and 12 September, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Friday. The US and other western powers have urged Beijing not to supply Russia with arms that could be used in the war in Ukraine.
Maksim Zelenov confessed to Gulagu.net that Russia mass-murdered civilians in Ukrainian villages near Bakhmut and Soledar during the offensive in late November 2022. They were told to murder everyone there and that’s what they did. Once the area had been ‘cleansed’, the regular troops moved in. This is genocide: the murder of civilians because they are an ethnic group.
He was a Russian police officer who was imprisoned for murder, but the Russian authorities released him so he could join Wagner and do dirty work for Russian troops in Ukraine.
The Bank of Russia has extended for another six months the ban on the withdrawal of foreign currency in cash. The restriction has been extended until March 9, 2024. The Bank of Russia is forced to extend restrictions on cash currency due to the current sanctions against Russia, which prohibit the purchase of cash currency from Western countries, explained Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina.
Russian athletes continue to change citizenship in order to be able to participate in international competitions. Alexey Morozov, Deputy Minister of Sports of the Russian Federation, spoke about the massive transition of Russians to foreign teams. “55 athletes in Olympic sports have changed their citizenship, if we take non-Olympic sports, this figure has exceeded 100,” he said, without specifying what time period he was talking about.
Over the past year, 1.3 thousand imported drugs (20.3%) have disappeared from the shelves of Russian pharmacies. Representatives of the pharmacy market confirm the trend. Over the seven months of this year, sales of imported commodity items in packages decreased by 15-16% year-on-year, says Victoria Presnyakova, director of the self-regulatory organization Association of Independent Pharmacies (includes 217 pharmacy organizations).
Russia needs to create a national center of historical memory as the West began to use history as a "weapon of ideological struggle" and distort it "for the sake of political expediency," said President Vladimir Putin. (This is rich.)
“We need an adequate defense tool that can not only repel, but also prevent any strikes of this kind. Veterans, historians, and search engines have repeatedly spoken about the need for this. <...> The proposal to create a national center of historical memory has been voiced more than once. I asked to work on this issue,” Putin said at a meeting of the Russian Pobeda organizing committee.
British American Tobacco says it will sell its last cigarette in Russia within a month, ending its presence in the world’s fourth-largest tobacco market a year and a half after it first pledged to do so in response to the invasion of Ukraine. The London-based maker of Lucky Strike and Camel cigarettes came under fire in March last year after initially continuing to operate in Russia, breaking ranks with global brands such as Nestlé, Unilever, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s. The decision was reversed just two days later, with the company citing its “ethos and values”.
Reuters reports that Ukraine opposes the idea of easing sanctions on Russia in order to revive a grain deal between the two countries, foreign ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko said on Friday.
“Easing part of the sanctions regime against Russia in exchange for the resumption of the grain agreement would be a victory for Russian food blackmail and an invitation to Moscow for new waves of blackmail,” he wrote on Facebook.
Zelensky: Ukraine's counteroffensive moves faster than new sanctions. Ukrainian counteroffensive is probably progressing faster than Kyiv's partners launch new sanctions packages, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sept. 8 at the 18th Yalta European Strategy meeting "The Future is Decided in Ukraine."
"When some partners say, 'So what about the counteroffensive, when will the next step be?' My answer is that today our steps are probably faster than new sanctions packages," the president said during a panel discussion.
The US Dept of Defense announced a new security assistance package to support Ukraine's battlefield needs and demonstrate unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine on Thursday. This package provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) includes equipment to augment Ukraine's air defenses, artillery munitions, and other capabilities.
The head of the US senate foreign relations committee has demanded that the country’s top three oilfield services companies “cease all investments” in Russia‘s fossil fuel infrastructure. Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, cited an Associated Press report that the companies SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton helped keep Russian oil flowing even as sanctions targeted the Russian war effort.
Russia imported more than $200m in technology from the three companies in the year following the invasion in February 2022, customs data obtained by B4Ukraine and vetted by the AP showed.
In a 27 July letter to the heads of the three companies, Menendez said: “Your company sought to make a profit... there is simply no good explanation for this behavior, other than to make a dollar.”
Lithuanian president: Ukraine could export 10 million tons of grain annually through Baltic Sea ports. If special corridors are developed, Ukraine could transport 10 million tons of grain annually through the Baltic Sea ports, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said, as cited by Delfi media outlet.
Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have fled to Ireland after the Russian invasion in February last year and the country’s minister for integration has said he cannot rule out the use of tented accommodation in the future as the government faces pressure ahead of the autumn period.
The US will station its military in Finland as part of the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA). The president of the country, Sauli Niinistö, spoke about this, as quoted by Iltalehti. “The DCA agreement leads to the fact that there will be at least some US military presence in Finland,” Niinistö said. A place will also be allocated for the deployment of American troops. The US is preparing similar agreements with Finland, Sweden and Denmark. An agreement with Norway has already been signed. Finnish government sources note that the country is already making diplomatic efforts to include the Finnish armed forces in the new NATO command structure under the leadership of the Joint Forces Strategic Command in Norfolk.
NYT: The Group of 20 summit kicks off today in New Delhi, bringing together world leaders to coordinate policy for the global economy. President Biden is expected to attend, but China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and Putin of Russia cannot attend the event because the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for him.
What are the biggest issues on the agenda?
The G20 is an economic-focused summit, and the host country’s efforts to showcase the promise and potential of a juggernaut Indian economy can’t be overlooked.
What does the absence of Xi and Putin mean for the gathering?
There will be little on the agenda that focuses, at least directly, on the war in Ukraine or providing economic aid. There are no hopes for any sort of binding joint statement, called a communiqué, among the leaders. Putin and Xi would need to sign on to such a document, and they did not do so last year. Xi attended last year, of course, but analysts say domestic economic pressure and tensions with India have contributed to his absence this time around.
What will come out of the summit?
One thing I will be looking at is President Biden’s efforts to strengthen his relationship with Modi, a leader he sees as politically stable and one he believes is interested in deepening strategic and economic ties. With Modi straddling the line between East and West, it remains to be seen how much of a partner he could be in forcefully countering China’s rise.
Samuel Bendett, Back to the 90s: Doing business in Russia
A raiding attempt at one of the Russian volunteer drone assembly/software installation efforts in Crimea - an attempt to muscle in on an existing enterprise to grab it by force.
Some background- such forced attempts at business takeover were common in Russia in the 1990s during “cowboy capitalism” stage, in the 2000s during Putin’s “transition capitalism”, and are occasionally taking place now as well.
A drone assembly/repair business in Crimea complained recently that they were visited by a large crowd of people who said they now have the MOD contact to do this kind of work countrywide and commanded this enterprise to start working for “them”. “Them” in this case is a “Livadia PMC that is connected to a business clan from Donetsk and some local authority in the Russian Crimea”.
“In other words, the following scheme emerges - MOD releases the funds for local drone work that go to a subcontractor in Donetsk, then to a local “decision-maker” in Crimea, and then this company/PMC is hiring “locally”.
“But this company has no specialists or experts or people they can hire locally, so their only option is to muscle in on an existing effort to threaten/force them to work for this Livadia effort.”
“This Livadia offered money (to our effort) for drone assembly, by it also appears that someone at this PMC wanted to make some money without Livadia leadership knowing about it. It also appears that our volunteer lab effort apparently “belonged” to someone in Moscow”.
“Turns out that we (this lab) were supported for 1.5 years by volunteer donations, but someone apparently took all credit for our work somewhere in Moscow.”
The post goes on as follows: “We don’t mind if the MOD really wants to fund this work - but why then have so many “subcontractors” - 3 in this case - with a high likelihood that money may be stolen?”
The post ends with the lab saying they are ok if someone wants to take credit for their work, but they don’t want any strangers showing up from Moscow threatening the effort and giving directions.
At this point, there is no resolution yet for this drone lab - but this is unlikely to be a unique case, with so many volunteer efforts across Russia, and apparently lots of MOD money sloshing around.
Akhmed Zakayev- The Chechen Rep of Ichkeria in Exile
Europe has started to look towards the independence of Chechnya: Akhmed Zakayev, head of the government of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in exile, told NEXTA that Russia began preparing for war with Ukraine as early as 1994.
If we are to look back, the war against Ukraine and other nations started here.
Nolan Peterson: The Kerch Bridge is so much more than we think
The Kerch Strait bridge is more than a supply line for Russia's military forces.
Completed in 2018, the Russian-built bridge created a shipping chokepoint through the Kerch Strait — allowing Russia to impose a de facto blockade on Ukraine’s major Sea of Azov ports: Mariupol and Berdyansk.
“Russia does its utmost to make Ukrainian ports ineffective,” Aleksandr Oleynik, then the director of Mariupol’s port, told me in 2018.
Russia's bridge to the illegally-occupied Crimean peninsula spans the Kerch Strait, a narrow waterway that connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. After construction began in 2016, it soon became clear that the bridge's very design was meant to be a passive means to choke Ukraine's Sea of Azov shipping traffic.
In order to fit under the new bridge's span, the air drafts (the height above water) of passing ships were limited to no more than 33 meters, or about 108 feet, Oleynik told me in 2018.
Before the Kerch Strait bridge’s completion, Mariupol’s port routinely received ships with air drafts up to 41 meters (about 135 feet), Oleynik said.
A dredged channel runs through the Kerch Strait and passes under the bridge's main span. According to Oleynik, there was enough room for ships to pass abreast through the Kerch Strait prior to the bridge's construction.
After 2018, cargo vessels could only traverse the strait under the bridge’s main span. Thus, access to the waterway became limited to one ship at a time, thereby creating a bottleneck that did not previously exist.
Compounding matters, Russian authorities imposed a limit on the cargo loads of ships passing through the strait — those new limits were far below what ships calling at the Mariupol port routinely loaded per trip, Oleynik said.
Russian authorities also mandated that each ship transiting the Kerch Strait submit to inspection — an onerous procedure that usually took much longer for ships traveling to or from Ukraine, Ukrainian officials said. Russia's Sea of Azov ports have shallow harbors that are solely accessible by low-draft vessels, such as barges.
The only Sea of Azov ports capable of accommodating ships with deeper drafts are on Ukrainian sovereign territory — Berdyansk and Mariupol.
That disparity meant that Russia's new inspection regime at the Kerch Strait, when combined with the bridge's physical constraints, disproportionately affected Ukrainian shipping. “It’s a very major restriction that Russia has introduced. It’s economic warfare,” Oleynik told me in 2018, adding: “Mariupol has suffered the most in this conflict."
In 2007, about 17.5 million tons of cargo passed through the Mariupol port annually. Oleynik said that number dropped to about 8 million tons per year in 2015, one year after Russia first invaded eastern Ukraine.
In 2018, after completion of the Kerch Strait bridge, Mariupol’s cargo tonnage dropped further — down to 5.3 million tons that year, Oleynik said.
When Ukraine ultimately regains its Sea of Azov coastline, Russia's Kerch Strait bridge, if it's still standing, will remain an economic obstacle and an enduring trigger point for future tensions.
The bridge, by virtue of its architecture alone, will limit shipping access to Ukraine's Sea of Azov ports — even if Ukraine rightfully regains control of its sovereign territory in Crimea.
Szabolcs Panyi: Orban’s Minister praises Nazi ally Horthy
Viktor Orbán's Minister of Construction and Transport, János Lázár, has praised Hungary's WW2 era leader and Nazi ally Miklós Horthy as an "exceptional head of State, true Hungarian patriot and heroic soldier", triggering backlash from many, including the US ambassador to Budapest.
Hungary's chief rabbi Robert Frolich commented by sharing some of Horthy's letters, including this one to Adolf Hitler from 1943:
"Your Excellency!
Following a friendly invitation from Your Excellency, I travelled to the Castle of Klessheim on the 16th of this month to exchange views on matters of our cooperation in accordance with the allied relationship and our common interests.
As I attach great importance to the maintenance of unchanged open and trusting relations between our countries, I consider it my duty to reply in sufficient detail to the reproaches which have been made to me during the long discussions we have had on this occasion.
One of the reproaches was that the treatment of Jews in Hungary is allegedly too lenient. On this point, I can refer without any presumption to the fact that I was the first to speak out against the destructive behaviour of the Jews at the time, and have since taken appropriate measures to curb their influence. Because of this then new trend, my country was boycotted by Germany and the rest of the world. However, the measures I had taken had effectively deprived the Jews of the opportunity to continue to exert their harmful influence on the public life of the country. The enormous difficulties which had to be overcome in the process are due to the fact that trade and industry had previously been almost entirely in Jewish hands.
Further measures for the gradual removal of the Jews are in progress, and will be carried out as soon as the conditions for their transportation are created."
Programming note
Our latest Kremlin File episode is out. Olga and I spoke with Evelyn Farkas, US security advisor and Executive Director of the McCain Institute about the wider geopolitical implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine. We also touched on much more. Here’s a little teaser.