Sunday read: "A Window of Opportunity"
Twitter thread August 6, 2022 by Mart Kuldkepp & PM Kallas's speech
Mart Kuldkepp: Window of Opportunity
Mart Kuldkepp is an Associate Professor of Scandinavian History and Politics at University College London. @UCL Regular contributing writer.
His primary research focus is on 20th century and current Scandinavian and Baltic political history and foreign & security policy, with a particular interest in inter-Nordic and inter-regional contacts and cooperation in the Baltic Sea area.
Thread August 6, 2022
History had given us a short opportunity window after the collapse of the Soviet Union to regain our independence and restore our place in the democratic world. Today, the whole free world has also been given a window of opportunity.
This window is about stopping Russian imperialism. We’re witnessing an era of tremendous change. But this change is just the beginning and needs to be sustainable. The aggressor has not changed or reversed its destructive and criminal aims.
At this very moment, Russia’s crimes are being carried out only 2000 kilometres from here.
This means we cannot take any steps back; on the contrary, we must move forward and our significant shifts in policy must be made permanent.
Russia’s actions have also forced us to reimagine what it means to be neutral.
Before the Second World War Estonia tried to balance between two evil empires and declared itself neutral. Despite this, we were occupied by the Russians, then the Nazis and then again the Russians.
We learnt the hard way that with neighbours like that, staying neutral is never an option.
That is why in 1991, when we restored our independence after 50 years of occupation, we decided we will Never be Alone Again. Never again without friends and allies. To anyone who lived under Soviet occupation, Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine replay the worst Soviet crimes – mass killings, mass repressions, mass deportations. My mother was an only six-month-old baby when she, my grandmother and my great-grandmother were sent off to Siberia in cattle wagons.
Now Russia has deported an estimated 900,000 to 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens to Russia, including 260,000 children. Those remaining in the occupied parts are subjected to intense Russificiation and „passportization“ campaigns, and preparations continue to hold sham referendums as a pretext for illegal annexation. Pictures from Bucha and Irpin showed the brutality and extensiveness of Russia’s war crimes.
And this is likely only a small part – we won’t know the full scale until these areas have been liberated by Ukraine.
Prime Minister Kaja Kallas' speech on the occasion of The European Prize for Political Culture
President Cassis,
Our esteemed host Mr Meyer,
Dear guests and friends,
I am very honoured to be here with you tonight.
Thank you to the Ringier Foundation for awarding me with this year’s European Prize for Political Culture.It is a great honour and I can not describe how much this recognition means to me or my country. I was born under Soviet occupation, we didn’t have any freedom and we certainly did not have any political culture. As Mr Meyer said, freedom equals politics and politics equals freedom. We did not have this.
History had given us a short opportunity window after the collapse of the Soviet Union to regain our independence and restore our place in the democratic world.
Today, the whole free world has also been given a window of opportunity. This window is about stopping Russian imperialism. We’re witnessing an era of tremendous change. But this change is just the beginning and needs to be sustainable. The aggressor has not changed or reversed its destructive and criminal aims. At this very moment, Russia’s crimes are being carried out only 2000 kilometres from here.
This means we cannot take any steps back; on the contrary, we must move forward and our significant shifts in policy must be made permanent.
Sanctions do not work overnight and have their full effect only if implemented properly with as few exceptions as possible and long-term.
To sustain this turn, this „Wende“, we need to keep explaining to our publics and electorates why the free world must stand behind Ukraine and help push back the aggression. Because it’s not just the fate of a sovereign and brave European country that’s at stake. The whole rules-based order is under attack. if aggression pays off somewhere, it invites to use it elsewhere.
Esteemed guests,
We have the biggest aggression in Europe in decades at our doorstep. And of course this has a price for us all. I agree with those who call inflation a “war tax”. It’s the price we’re paying for not having the war on our soil. Unlike Ukrainians, we are paying this price in euros and Swiss francs, not countless human lives and destroyed buildings.
The key question will be how much we are willing to endure. This task is not easy. The coming autumn and winter will be hard – energy prices will go up, living costs will increase, our habits will need to adjust.The stakes may feel different in countries with much better neighbours than we have. The further away you are from Russia, the less real the war seems to you. But just remember: the distance from the frequently bombed Odesa to Ascona is the same as the distance from Odesa to Tallinn. The Ukrainian territory temporarily occupied by Russia now is three times the size of Switzerland.
If we give up, the price will be much higher for all of us. That’s why we need to get the message across: our neighbour’s problem today is our problem tomorrow. We are all in danger when our neighbour’s house is on fire.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Russia’s actions have also forced us to reimagine what it means to be neutral.
Before the Second World War, Estonia tried to balance between two evil empires and declared itself neutral. Despite this, we were occupied by the Russians, then the Nazis, and then again the Russians. We learnt the hard way that with neighbours like that, staying neutral is never an option.
That is why in 1991, when we restored our independence after 50 years of occupation, we decided we will Never be Alone Again. Never again without friends and allies.
I’m reminded of Theodore Roosevelt who said that „in a really tremendous world struggle, with a great moral issue involved, neutrality does not serve righteousness, for to be neutral between right and wrong is to serve wrong.“
This became crystal clear after 24 February. Like President Cassis said, 24 February is also Estonia’s Independence Day, when we celebrate freedom.
Here in Switzerland, your decision to join the biggest sanctions in history against Russia signalled that when every single international rule is being violated, neutrality does not and cannot mean indifference.
It requires effort to maintain this strong international judgment before new issues and domestic concerns take over. It’s essential that countries around the world understand what is at stake and who started this war. If we do not counter Russian aggression, the international rules-based order is under threat, and no country and no nation can feel safe.
We have a lot of awareness-raising to do, and we all must do our share. Russia has long used hybrid attacks and disinformation as a weapon to get its way on the global stage. Right now is no different. Take the food crisis, for example – some of the first stories about it came from Russian state-sponsored sources. The purpose has been to pressurise countries into lifting sanctions and blame Ukraine and the West for a crisis engineered by Russia itself. Kremlin propagandists have openly called hunger Russia’s “last hope.” To ease the global food crisis, it’s also crucial to understand who is behind it.
Dear guests,
Raising awareness must also continue in Europe. Despite saying „Never Again“, here we are again, faced with a destructive and genocidal war fuelled by imperialist nostalgia. How did we get here?
I say that history matters. Although the Soviet Union collapsed, its imperialist ideology never did. Russia has never condemned the crimes of the Soviets – its history books were never rewritten. The Kremlin has built a strong revival of Stalinism. Opinion polls suggest that 70 percent of Russians approve of Stalin and his policies. If people admire dictators, there is no moral obstacle to becoming one or submitting to one.
While the crimes of Nazism were condemned in the whole world and the perpetrators brought to justice, this has not been done with the crimes of Communism. For our people to truly understand the dangers of Russian imperialism, Soviet crimes should be included in education programmes across Europe and beyond.
To anyone who lived under Soviet occupation, Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine replay the worst Soviet crimes – mass killings, mass repressions, mass deportations. My mother was an only six-month-old baby when she, my grandmother and my great-grandmother were sent off to Siberia in cattle wagons.
Now Russia has deported an estimated 900,000 to 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens to Russia, including 260,000 children. Those remaining in the occupied parts are subjected to intense Russificiation and „passportization“ campaigns, and preparations continue to hold sham referendums as a pretext for illegal annexation. Pictures from Bucha and Irpin showed the brutality and extensiveness of Russia’s war crimes. And this is likely only a small part – we won’t know the full scale until these areas have been liberated by Ukraine.Ladies and gentlemen,
The political reaction to Russia’s aggression has been strong. But it is not enough if the legal reaction doesn’t follow. The international rules-based order was created to have stability in inter-state relations, to prevent countries from invading their neighbours at will and committing mass atrocities. But if it doesn’t deliver accountability for war criminals and justice for victims, then who is it really for? Impunity is exactly what Putin is counting on.
That’s why we must do everything to ensure that those behind Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and its atrocities face the justice.
Estonia fully supports the investigation by the International Criminal Court. We have sent our own experts to help. And we believe we must go even one step further to enforce international law. That’s why we call for the establishment of an international independent special court for the crime of aggression committed in Ukraine.
We should also make sure that the aggressor pays reparations – the Kremlin must pay for every road destroyed, every building shelled and every bridge ruined. For that, we should use Russian assets and central bank reserves frozen by sanctions. And of course, we are rule of law countries and should agree on international laws to be able to do that.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Today’s award is about European political culture.
We are now facing the biggest security crisis in Europe since the Second World War. It is about democracy, freedom and the rule of law on one side, and imperialism, tyranny and destruction in Europe on the other side.
As politicians, we must rise to the challenge. It is not enough to say we’ve learned from history. To show we really understand the lessons of the previous century, we must have political courage and use our moral compass like never before.
This means continuing our support to Ukraine. This means implementing tough sanctions against Russia and agreeing new ones. It means isolating Russia and prosecuting war crimes and punishing war criminals. And we must do this for the long haul.
It won’t be painless. But it will be much less painful than the alternative. Like the Russian dissident and world chess champion Garry Kasparov has said, and I quote: "The price of stopping a dictator always goes up with every delay and every hesitation. Meeting evil halfway is still a victory for evil.