Aug 1 Buonasera Mag
Day 160: Odesa, Donetsk, Bulgaria, Mikolyev, evacuations, RussiaIsATerroristState, RU marines, Chubais, Lebanon, Qatar--articles by Peterson, UA Crisis Media Centre, Roth, Cirincione, Soldatov, Babij
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia moves troops from north of Donetsk Oblast to the south. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russia has moved some units from the Sloviansk direction in Donetsk Oblast to the southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Ukraine destroys Russian echelon in Kherson Obast with HIMARS. According to Serhiy Bratchuk, the spokesperson for the Odesa Oblast State Administration, Ukraine’s military hit a 40-car train transporting Russian troops, equipment, and ammunition from Crimea with U.S.-made HIMARS multiple rocket launchers overnight on July 31.
Explosion reported at warehouse of Bulgarian firm that supplied arms to Ukraine. According to local media reports, an explosion occurred at a Bulgarian ammunition warehouse owned by businessman Emilian Gebrev, whose company provided weapons to Ukraine after 2014.
Mykolaiv has been under massive shelling. Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych reported that explosions caused by cluster munitions, have been heard in the city overnight on July 31 and Aug 1 and urged residents to stay in shelters.
Government to start mandatory evacuation of civilians from Donetsk Oblast. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that the evacuation must start before the heating season and added that 200,000 civilians must be evacuated.
The EU should designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs said, after an attack that killed dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war on Friday renewed calls to further isolate Moscow on the international stage.
200 Russian marines refuse to come back to fight in Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Intelligence Directorate, the 200 Russian marines from the 810th naval infantry brigade refused to come back to fight in the southern regions of Ukraine.
Anatoly Chubais, Putin's ex representative for sustainable development in int'l orgs who abruptly left Russia, was admitted to a European hospital. Specialists in hazmat suits were reportedly examining the room where Chubais was when he fell ill.
Lebanon detains ship with stolen Ukrainian grain. The Ukrainian Embassy in Lebanon received an order allowing the seizure of the ship for 72 hours.
EU sends Ukraine €1bn in financial aid to support its budget and help it tackle the financial consequences of the Russian invasion.
Ukraine receives $5 million from Qatar for medical aid. According to the Health Ministry, Qatar Fund For Development transferred $5 million to UNITED24, a Ukrainian state-run fundraising platform.
From Brussels to Paris, EU officials have been reluctant to weigh into the dispute between the US and China in public, even as China edges closer to the risk of a military standoff with the U.S. Behind the scenes, however, European diplomats accept there is clearly a danger that the situation could spiral out of control.
Austrian leaders appealed for national unity after Dr Lisa-Maria Kellermayr who faced death threats from anti-vaccination activists and coronavirus pandemic conspiracy theorists took her own life.
U.S. House Speaker Pelosi to visit Taiwan tomorrow- Tuesday.
Kosovo-Serbia tensions and deterrence
“As of Monday (1 August), Serbian citizens travelling to Kosovo will be required to replace their passport with a temporary ID for the duration of their visit in a reciprocal move announced by Prime Minister Abin Kurti.”
Russia has accused Kosovo of trying to displace Serbs over new border control measures Tensions also flared between Kosovo and Russia in February, as Serbia warned of discrimination against 120,000 Serbs in Kosovo. At the time, Kosovo accused Russia of destabilising the Balkans
I think last evening Serbia's General Staff officers explained to President Vučić that if he orders to attack Kosovo NATO fighter jets would appear over Serbian forces within hours and start bombing them.
And within 48 hours the US Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade would be airlifted to Pristina Airport and the Italian Army's Paratropers Brigade "Folgore" airlifted to Gjakova Airport (which Italy's military built for this purpose).
Followed a day later by the Italian Army's Mechanized Brigade "Pinerolo", which is based in and around Bari, and would be shipped by the Italian Navy's 3rd Naval Division with its amphibious ships from Brindisi to Durrës within 2 days.
From Durrës to Mitrovicia the Pinerolo's wheeled Freccia IFVs and Centauro tank destroyers need 6 hours thanks to the Western co-financed A1 highway.
In short: NATO has been planning and training to defend Kosovo for 23 years; if the Serb ever go all loco and invade NATO can overmatch them in the air within a few hours and on the ground within a few days. And NATO made sure Serbia's generals know this.
Open Letter, Heavy Weapons Now!
The signatories of the Zeit appeal entitled "A Ceasefire Now!" misjudge the nature of Putin's internal regime and foreign policy doctrine, and propose the opposite of the measures needed to deter the Kremlin: namely, heavy weapons delivered to Ukraine now and maximum sanctions on Russia.
Peterson, Barbaric Videos Show Russian Soldiers Castrating, Murdering Ukrainian POW
The videos sparked furious reactions among many Ukrainians who pointed to the brutal footage as further evidence of Russia’s prolific war crimes in Ukraine. The individual malice and sadism displayed by the Russian torturer is hard to fathom. Even so, the horrifying castration footage underscores the habitual reversion to war crimes among frustrated Russian soldiers, some experts say. That pattern manifested in the mass slaughter and rape of Ukrainian civilians by Russian forces in outlying areas of Kyiv, such as Bucha, in March, said James Rushton, a UK-based foreign policy and defense analyst.
EuObserver, How MEPs serve Russia via fake election-monitoring
When the European Parliament (EP) considered, on 1 March 2022, a resolution that condemned "in the strongest possible terms the Russian Federation's illegal, unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against and invasion of Ukraine", only 13 out of 676 MEPs who took part in the vote declined to support the motion.
Cirincione, What’s Missing from Mearsheimer’s Analysis of the Ukraine War
In numerous essays and articles, Mearsheimer focuses his fire on U.S. and NATO policies for causing the Ukraine war and for its continuation. His speech, “Why Is Ukraine the West’s Fault?” has been viewed more than 27 million times. These views are echoed by many on the far left and the libertarian right, as well as the center. This makes it all the more vital to understand the gaps in his analysis that produce such a flawed result. His security equation is missing key variables.
Borogan & Soldatov, The Good Engineer Zima
The Russian regime rewards managers and engineers who keep the regime afloat, and expects a Faustian payment in return.
The population of the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, Southern Ukraine, noticed something strange about the Internet early last month. Some websites, and social media became inaccessible, much as they are in Russia.
Babij, a Kind of Refugee / 21.07.2022 Part 1
I am leaving my Kyiv home in a hurry again. This time I’m not running away. But yes, I am running. That seems to be the tempo right now. It’s in conflict with my old mode — take your time, as much as you need, for deliberation, for just being stubbornly slow. The insistent slowness has been creeping back these past several days — along with other pieces of my life before. Watching lindy hop on youtube; fantasizing about dancing with my favorite partner. Periods of a lack of a sense of urgency.
Sting for Ukraine…
I grew up listening to the Police and Sting (later)…I can forgive him ‘the Ukraine’.
German energy conundrum
On July 16, Scott and I spoke with Dr Ben Schmitt about ways to address the EU’s energy dependency on Russia. You can listen to that here.
