Jul 8: E-Stories

Okhmatdyt Kyiv CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P ISW CDS Noel UKDef United24 Intermarium24 Zelensky Bowling HajunProject Chummia FA Modi Kross Barents Kydo Starmer SovietX Richardson Lucas

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Russia missile attacks in multiple locations across Ukraine today:

The Kremlin attacked Kyiv today at multiple sites, one of which was the Okhmatdyt hospital, Ukraine's largest children's medical, killing at least 21 people and injuring 72 others at the time of this writing. The attack on Kyiv included the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, one of the most advanced Russian weapons, Ukraine’s air force said.

The Russian attack on Kyiv on Monday was one of the worst during the two-year full-scale invasion by Moscow, Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko said. “This is one of the worst attacks. You can see: it’s a children’s hospital,” he told Reuters.

The Okhmatdyt hospital is currently being evacuated after its power, oxygen and water supplies were lost following Russia’s deadly missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital this morning, BBC News reports.

Today’s events are evil and I simply cannot find the words for the rage I am feeling. The Russians hit two hospitals in Kyiv, the children’s hospital and a private maternity hospital, as well as another hospital in Dnipro, and residential buildings and infrastructure in in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, with more than 40 missiles of various types. Ukrainian emergency services and citizens are helping desperately to dig under the rubble to save more lives. Evil…it’s just so evil and deliberate.

Limitations on striking Russian launching positions must be lifted by Western partners. Zelensky said on Monday that Ukraine was waiting for concrete steps from its Western partners to strengthen its air defences and protect its energy sector during a Nato summit this week, Reuters reports. Zelensky is expected to fly to the NATO summit in Washington later in the day after concluding a visit to Poland.

ISW: The Biden Administration’s limited policy change permitting Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike some Russian military targets in a small area within Russian territory has reduced the size of Russia’s ground sanctuary by only 16 percent at maximum.

US policy still preserves at least 84 percent of Russia's ground sanctuary – territory within range of Ukrainian ATACMS.

ISW assesses that the West maintains the ability to substantially disrupt Russian operations at scale by allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike Russia’s operational rear and deep rear areas in Russian territory.

The Ukrainian air force said it had downed 30 out of 38 Russia-launched missiles during Monday’s deadly attack. Russian forces used cruise, ballistic, aerial ballistic and guided missiles in a combined attack on Ukrainian cities, the Ukrainian air force said.

---

Stories we’re following…

DTEK said 3 electricity substations and electricity networks in the capital Kyiv were damaged in the latest Russian missile strike.

Zelenskiy said the government would “continue to work on creating new energy generation and new decentralised energy capacities”. Also planned was “the construction of new balanced and manoeuvrable capacities for energy”.

Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih kills at least 10, injures at least 41. Russian forces struck the city of Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on July 8, Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the city's military administration, reported. At least 3 people were killed in a Russian strike on the Donetsk oblast city of Pokrovsk this morning, governor Vadym Filashkin said. Russia's mass missile attack damaged a high-rise building in Dnipro and injured civilians, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak reported on July 8.

President Zelensky has announced that a mechanism is being developed for Poland to shoot down Russian missiles and drones in Ukrainian airspace if launched towards Poland. Additionally, a security agreement includes forming a volunteer legion in Poland, potentially involving foreigners. Poland is also prepared to transfer up to 20 MiG-29s to Ukraine, contingent on NATO countries providing replacements.

Ukraine has convened an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council following a Russian attack on a children's hospital, as announced by President Zelenskyi during a briefing with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. Zelenskyi also vowed that Ukraine will respond to the perpetrators from Russia.

Kyiv refuses to release first Russian soldier convicted of war crimes in POW exchange. Ukraine has no plans currently to exchange Vadim Shishimarin — the first Russian soldier convicted of war crimes after the start of the full-scale invasion — in a prisoner swap with Moscow, the Prosecutor General's Office said.

Ukraine to submit draft resolution on nuclear safety to UN General Assembly. The document will be mainly focused on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power station in Europe, which has been under Russian occupation since March 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Russia statement on the Russian missile strike against Ukraine today: On the morning of July 8, the Russian army launched a group missile strike on Ukrainian military industrial facilities and Ukrainian air force bases, the Russian Defense Ministry announced.

"The strike targets have been achieved. The designated objects have been hit," the military department said in a statement. It was also emphasized that the strike was a response to Ukraine's regular attacks on Russian energy facilities.

Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, has said that calls for an immediate ceasefire in the war in Ukraine would only prompt Moscow to make further attacks. Podolyak wrote in a post on X:

Literally, in parallel with the deliberate attack on children in the Ukrainian capital, the leaders of Hungary and China once again demanded “an immediate ceasefire”. This demand is not directed at Russia. It is directed only at the West and Ukraine.

And its purpose is to create a false feeling: the aggressor has the right to kill, because he speaks of “peace”, and the victim should not defend himself and therefore should immediately stop resistance.

---

Combat Situation Update

Ukrainian forces recently advanced during tactical counterattacks north of Kharkiv City amid continued fighting north and northeast of Kharkiv City on July 7.

The current status of Hlyboke is unclear, however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are regularly counterattacking near Hlyboke and that Ukrainian forces advanced near Hlyboke from the southwest.

Another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are also conducting raids near Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and Tykhe (northeast of Kharkiv City) to identify vulnerabilities in Russian defensive lines.

Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on July 7. Geolocated footage published on July 7 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within southern Pivnichne (east of Toretsk).

Ukrainian drone attack damaged Russia's only full-cycle metallurgical facility, source says. Ukraine carried out a drone attack on July 1, "seriously" damaging the Russian military-industrial complex, the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant (OEMK).

Military: Another Russian Su-25 downed in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have shot down yet another Russian Su-25 fighter jet in the embattled Donetsk Oblast, the Khortytsia group of forces reported on July 7.

Emergency workers in Krasnodar couldn’t get close to stopping the fire at the oil refinery in Pavlovskaya. Ukraine drones hit this and two other targets on July 6. The fireman in the video is saying that it’s useless trying to put the fire out.

Ukrainian drones attack large ammunition depot in Voronezh Oblast, source says. A law enforcement source told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine struck a large ammunition depot in the village of Sergeevka in Voronezh Oblast.

The Economist: The numbers documented in the latest article of the Economist reporting on the Russian losses in Ukraine in the last two years are staggering. They have exceeded all losses the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation experienced from 1945 to 2022, combined. Somewhere between 462,000 and 728,000 of Russian soldiers have been permanently eliminated, basically confirming the numbers Ukrainian forces have been reporting all along.

Summarizing the paragraphs above, it appears that the Kremlin considers this year to be the make-or-break period. The Russian reserves are not enough to sustain a prolonged war, beyond the next 2 or 3 years. It is coming to on end, one way or another, so more than ever Russian cannon fodder has to be thrown into the fire. Putin needs to convince or more specifically bluff that Russia is winning, now more than ever, but numbers are not lying and Russia is failing by virtually every metric.

This is why Russians are investing so much to install their puppets in Western leadership positions and hope that they stop the war for them. This concerted effort by Russia will accelerate in the coming months. If Russians fail in doing so or their puppets do not turn out being this good, especially after realizing that long-term precautions have been taken to mitigate those risks, it will have a dramatic impact on the Russian war effort.

Europe and especially Germany are holding the keys for Russia's end. It is up to their determination to steer into the right direction, even without the US. The economic capacities are available even today.

---

Behind the Lines

Russia is the greatest security threat facing Sweden and its allies in the next several years, Stockholm said in a strategy outline published on Monday.

Sweden has beefed up its national security policy, amid concerns that led its army’s supreme commander in January to warn Swedes that they had to “mentally prepare for war”. “An armed attack against Sweden or its Allies cannot be ruled out,” said the new national security strategy, published Monday and extending until 2030.

The seriousness of the Russian threat will depend on what happens next in the Ukraine war, defence minister Pal Jonson told a press briefing. Russia’s threshold for using military force is “low”, he said, adding that Moscow is “ready to take major political and military risks”.

After visiting Moscow on July 5, Orban has now stopped in Beijing and then will be heading to Washington for the NATO summit. It’s worth remembering when observing Orban’s movements abroad that he is Trump’s man, and will most likely inform him about his visits as well as sensitive information. This is conjecture on my part but it seems logical to me that he should do so.

Orban called his visit to Moscow a "peace mission", coming three days after a visit to Kyiv where he met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Hungary has just taken over the presidency of the Council of the European Union, but EU leaders have stressed that Mr Orban is not acting on behalf of the bloc.

European leaders openly condemned the Moscow trip and emphasised he was not representing the EU.

"The EU rotating presidency has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU," Charles Michel, President of the European Council, wrote on X.

"The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine."

"Appeasement will not stop Putin," European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X.

Russian defector involved in Russia's Baltic Fleet vessel sabotage, military intelligence says. The Russian missile ship Serpukhov was set on fire on April 8 while docked off the city of Kaliningrad. The sabotage completely destroyed its communication and automation systems, necessitating lengthy repairs, military intelligence said.

Russian Spy Plot To Sow 'Panic and Terror' in US Leaked in Bombshell Report

Leaked emails from Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) obtained by independent Russian site The Insider and the German newspaper Der Spiegel reveal an elaborate plan masterminded in 2022, dubbed "Project Kylo."

Just months into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in May 2022, a group of SVR employees unveiled the operation at a private roundtable discussion in the Russian Senate. Leaked communications showed that Moscow sought to sow disinformation campaigns in the West about Ukraine, "stoke existential fears and create animosity to [Ukrainian] refugees fleeing the war."

The proposal, first put forward by Mikhail Kolesov, a 45-year-old SVR officer, was designed to "inject a new scheme into the Kremlin's propaganda approach" that was "systematic, targeted and active, offensive in nature," according to the investigation.

Lukashenko releases 4 political prisoners, Belarusian opposition says. Some Belarusian political prisoners who were being held by Alexander Lukashenko's regime have been released, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya announced on July 3.

Belarus and China started joint anti-terrorist drills near the border with NATO. The drills are conducted at the Brestski training ground, which is located 2.8 km from the border with NATO and 28 km from Ukraine. It’s reported that during the drills, the servicemen of the Special Operations Forces of Belarus and China will practice night landing, overcoming water obstacles and conducting combat operations in a settlement.

---

Meanwhile in Russia

Gazeta: Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Russian Bank, admits that the economy has deviated significantly from the baseline scenario. Pro-inflationary risks have not only increased, but have also materialized. Therefore, a rate increase in July is being discussed.

“The Central Bank will consider raising the key rate in July,” Nabiullina said at the Central Bank’s Financial Congress.

On July 4, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Zabotkin announced that the Bank of Russia would consider raising the key rate to 18% per annum at its next meeting. The decision would depend on incoming economic data, he noted.

In the Rostov region, the supply of electricity to enterprises will be limited in order to reduce the load on substations and avoid accidents due to abnormal heat, said the region's governor Vasily Golubev. "According to experts, the risks of overload and failure of electrical equipment are not decreasing. Therefore, the reintroduction of the temporary shutdown regime cannot be ruled out," Golubev wrote in the Telegram channel. (Me: this is the Russian way of saying they can’t repair the damage done by Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian substations.)

Read the article here

Russian air carriers cannot reach an agreement with Indonesian airports on aircraft refueling and servicing, Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Sergei Tolchenov told RIA Novosti.

According to him, due to airport service denials, it is not possible to establish the repeatedly announced direct flights to Bali, one of the "meccas" of Russian tourism in Asia, which was visited by more than 150 thousand Russian citizens last year.

"The local side is not yet able to create the conditions necessary for receiving and servicing (aircraft - ed.). This concerns both refueling and the ability to make payments - for fuel, other airport services, including ticket sales," Tolchenov complained.

India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has arrived Moscow for a two-day state visit, according to the Tass state news agency.

A top Indian official said last week that fixing India’s trade imbalance with Russia and securing the discharge of Indian citizens who were misled into fighting in the Ukraine war would be among Modi’s top priorities in Moscow, according to Reuters.

Eerik N Kross: You still have a chance to come out of this with a little bit of dignity if you cut the visit short after learning about the Kyiv children hospital bombing.

Defence Blog: Huge sums stolen from key Russian aviation test center:

An investigation has revealed that over 875 million rubles ($10 million) were embezzled during the reconstruction of the main testing range for military aviation technology in Akhtubinsk, according to a report by Baza.

The case, initially opened by the Main Military Investigation Directorate of the Investigative Committee of Russia in 2022, remains unresolved.

In 2014, the Russian Ministry of Defense allocated approximately 1.5 billion rubles for the renovation of the flight testing center in Akhtubinsk. The state contractor, FSUE “Main Military Construction Directorate No. 14,” funneled more than 900 million rubles through a network of subcontractors into the accounts of the company “PromSpetsStroyGroup” (PSSG).

Russia has appointed Vice Adm Sergei Lipilin as the commander of its Baltic Fleet, the Tass state news agency reported on Monday, citing a source in naval circles. Lipilin previously served as first deputy commander of the fleet.

Japan confirms China set up buoy over its southern continental shelf

The Japanese government said Friday it has confirmed China has installed a buoy in the high seas over Japan's southern continental shelf in the Pacific Ocean, in a move that could further strain bilateral relations.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi told a news conference it was "regrettable" that China has set up a small buoy in the waters off Japan's western main island of Shikoku and north of the southernmost Okinotori Island "without explaining its purpose and other details."

The government has urged China not to undermine Japan's maritime interests, with Beijing responding that it installed the buoy to monitor tsunami and does not intend to infringe upon Tokyo's sovereignty over the continental shelf, the top government spokesman said.

Japan confirmed that the Chinese survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 22 set up the buoy in mid-June while monitoring the vessel as it sailed through Japan's exclusive economic zone in the East China Sea, a government source said. The open-sea area in question is surrounded by Japan's EEZ.

---

Allied Support

Zelensky arrived in Warsaw on Monday and was set to meet Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk.

The two leaders plan to sign an agreement on security cooperation and discuss their expectations ahead of a Nato summit in Washington, which begins tomorrow.

They will also talk about Poland’s participation in the restoration of Ukraine, trade development and humanitarian cooperation, the president’s office said.

UK Defense Minister announces new Ukraine defense package during Odesa trip. Less than 48 hours after the United Kingdom's new Defense Secretary John Healey took his post, Healey met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Odesa and announced a new package of defense aid.

New Dutch foreign and defense ministers announce more aid during first visit to Ukraine. The Netherlands's Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp and Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans met with President Volodymyr Zelensky during their first diplomatic visit to Ukraine, announcing additional aid for Ukraine human rights investigations and missing persons forensics on July 7.

The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with a mobile forensic lab, aiding in the investigation of over 130,000 war crimes committed by Russia. This support was announced during a visit by General Prosecutor Kostin and Dutch Foreign Minister Veldkamp to the damaged Odesa.

July 5: US State Department Official Readout: The United States is sending Ukraine a significant new package of weapons and equipment to support the Ukrainian military as it continues to fight against Russian aggression.  This $150 million package provided under Presidential Drawdown Authority includes missiles for HAWK air defense systems, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, 81mm mortar rounds, Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, small arms ammunition and grenades, demolitions equipment and munitions, tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment, tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment, night vision devices, and spare parts, maintenance, and other field and ancillary equipment.  

UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer (Labour Party) called President Biden as one of his first acts of diplomacy. The Labour Party won 412 seats in an overwhelming victory in the July 4 general election.

AP: European leaders gather in Washington starting on Tuesday to celebrate the alliance's 75th anniversary. Biden has made strengthening the alliance a priority. During his presidency, NATO has backed Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion and added two members, Sweden and Finland. 

Support for NATO in member states remains broad, confidence in Zelensky declines, poll finds. The highest number of respondents among European countries polled who said that they did not have confidence in President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Hungary (83%).

Netherlands to maintain support for Ukraine, new Dutch defense minister says. "The Netherlands remains committed to supporting Ukraine as much as we can, for as long as needed. We and our allies stand united in our resolve to return peace and security to Ukraine," Ruben Brekelmans wrote on X.

White House: Biden may hold bilateral meeting with Zelensky during NATO summit. "And while the president will have quite a busy schedule given his commitment as the host of the summit, we’re working to set up several bilats and meetings with various world leaders on the margins of the summit, including President Zelensky, again, as I mentioned earlier," the official said. 'And we’ll have more information on those to share in the coming days."

Times Radio with Scott Lucas: Putin's strategic aims face collapse as Ukraine hits Russia and EU accession looms

---

Reuters—French elections: A surprise left-wing surge blocked Marine Le Pen's quest to bring the far right to power. The leftist New Popular Front emerged as the dominant force in the National Assembly but must now consider forming a minority government or building a broad, unwieldy coalition.

---

V-Square: How the Far-Right Used TikTok to Spread Lies and Conspiracies

Germany’s huge TikTok market is vulnerable to extremists’ tactics, which have gained major traction with young voters. Our cross-border investigation proved that you can easily buy virality on social networks. 

In Romania, reporters showed that the social network was a key platform for emerging far-right political figures. 

Similarly, in Poland, the TikTok champions of the European Parliament elections were the far-right, who are now heading to Brussels. 

In Slovakia, TikTok served as a fertile ground for conspiracies about the attempted assassination of Prime Minister Robert Fico. 

Meanwhile, in the Czech Republic, reporters found that the platform’s algorithm was pushing users into a bubble of disinformation. 

Estonians were exposed to fear-mongering related to war that was propagated through TikTok.

In Hungary, Russian narratives flow to TikTok via public media.

Continue reading for a country-by-country report.

---

Zelensky says Trump should reveal plan on ending Russia's war. "If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. "If there are risks to Ukrainian independence, if we lose statehood — we want to be ready for this, we want to know... We want to understand whether in November we will have the powerful support of the US, or will be all alone."

DefenceOne: The State Department’s epicenter for combating disinformation worldwide could close this year if Congress doesn’t reauthorize it, a foreign policy official warned. 

“I cannot figure out why Congress wouldn't want people to do what I do every day, which is wake up in the morning and figure out how to fight Russian, Chinese, and Iranian disinformation and propaganda,” James Rubin, the State Department’s special envoy and coordinator for the Global Engagement Center, said Tuesday during an Association of the U.S. Army event on cyber and information operations. “I think all Americans want that to happen. Unfortunately, a small number seem to think we do something else which we don't do, which is operate in the United States. And we've fallen into a guilt-by-association situation where people think we're doing something we're not doing in the United States.” 

Christiane Amanpour speaks with professor Heather Cox Richardson: she weighs the aftermath of president Biden’s disastrous debate, and argues that excessive coverage eclipses the fact that his opponent is "trying to destroy our country." "If you change a presidential nominee at this point in the game, the candidate loses."

Anne Applebaum: Time to Roll the Dice—Biden’s party doesn’t need to sleepwalk into a catastrophe.

November’s election has very high stakes: the nature and, indeed, the continued existence of the American republic, at least in the form that we’ve known it for the past century. Around the world, the United States under a second Trump presidency would cease to be seen as a leading democracy, or as a leader of anything at all. What kind of country elects a criminal and an insurrectionist as its president?

If he wins, Donald Trump has said that he wants mass deportations, perhaps carried out by the military—and he could do that. He wants to turn the Department of Justice against his enemies, and he might do that too: Just this week, he reposted a demand that Liz Cheney face a military tribunal merely for opposing him. The Supreme Court has just removed some more guardrails around our imperial presidency, and of course that process could continue, especially if Trump is able to pick more justices. If you think the level of polarization and political chaos in the United States is bad now, wait and see what those changes will bring. And if you think none of this can happen in America, please read the history of Hungary or Venezuela, stable democracies that were destroyed by extremist autocrats.

With America focused on its own internal crisis, American alliances in Europe, Asia, and everywhere else could fracture. The network of autocracies led by Russia and China would grow stronger, because their main narrative—democracy is degenerate—would be reinforced by the incoherent, autocratic American president. Ukraine, Taiwan, and South Korea would all be in jeopardy, because the autocratic world knows how to spot weakness and might begin to test boundaries. If Trump puts up across-the-board tariffs, he could destroy the U.S. economy as well.

A political party that cared about the future of America and, indeed, the future of the planet would do everything possible to avoid this fate. The Republicans have already shown us that they do not care and will not stop Trump. Until now, the Democrats have supported Joe Biden, a successful, transformative, and even heroic president, while a coterie of people around him concealed his true condition. Doubts about the 81-year-old president’s ability to continue governing were already widespread and are partly responsible for his low approval rating. Since last week’s debate, they have been front and center, and there is no reason to believe they will dissipate. On the contrary, the doubts are very likely to grow worse. Every stumble, every forgotten word will reinforce the impression created by the debate. Biden is polling behind Trump now. If he remains the candidate, he is likely to lose.

---