Jun 25: Sunday Stories- The coup that never was and Ukraine Situation Report

The events surrounding the coup, international reactions and Ukraine's situation report

The coup that never was—Prigozhin standing down

The march to Moscow is over. After roughly 36 hours, Prigozhin says Wagner is standing its coup attempt down and going back to Ukraine "according to the plan."

Prigozhin in an audio message: "Right now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Therefore, understanding all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our convoy around and going back to our basecamps, according to the plan."

There are reports coming into Telegram channels now claiming that Prigozhin stopped because he was able to negotiate changes that will be made in the Russian Ministry of Defense leadership.

My team’s takeaway: We won’t know why Prigozhin aborted his coup, And there are other reasons:

1. distract from the NATO summit

2. Loyalty test for Putin’s inner circle or dismiss unwanted figures

3. real coup preventative measures

4. Weapons deliveries delays from the West: Russia looks weak

5. Maskirovka for a mass terror attack, for example on the ZNPP

And then there’s the WSJ: “The U.S. is set to delay new sanctions on Russian paramilitary group Wagner after its founder and leader launched an uprising against the Kremlin, people familiar with the matter said Saturday, fearing a delay could inadvertently help President Vladimir Putin.“Washington does not want to appear to be taking sides in this,” a person familiar with the postponement said.The State Department had planned to announce new designations on Wagner’s gold business in Africa on Tuesday, including on a mining operation set up by the group in the Central African Republic, these people said.”

On the positive side, it gave the opportunity to some of the republics to express their desire to step away from the Russian Federation as the world was watching. Besides this, the idea of a coup in Russia seemed so impossible in the past. Seeing Wagnerites take cities like Rostov (if it wasn’t staged) demonstrated that it can be done. It’s not impossible.

In the coming days, the real reason for Prigozhin’s march will become clearer. Will Prigozhin live to see another day of battle?

What happened before Prigozhin’s turn around?

Prigozhin heading for Moscow

On June 24, Putin delivered an urgent appeal to the people of Russia. In it, the president accused Yevgeny Prigozhin (without naming him by name) of "betrayal" and "treason." So after 12 hours, Putin reacted to the rebellion, which was staged by the founder of the Wagner PMC.

The President said that all those involved in the military coup attempt are splitting the country and will be punished for this.

“The battle for the fate of our people against the West needs unity ... Thus, actions dividing us are a betrayal of our brothers-in-arms ... a strike to the back of our people ... like in 1917 ... when our country was divided ... We will not let this happen ... it's an internal BETRAYAL.”

Prigozhin’s response: “No one is going to turn himself in at the request of the president, the FSB or someone else, no one wants to continue to live in corruption and deceit ... Those who oppose us are those who have gathered around the scum"

Russian military leaders urge Wagner boss to stop his 'march for justice' as Moscow beefs up security. Russian military leaders appealed to the Wagner Group in the early hours of June 24 to stand down following a video statement in which Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin called the Russian military leadership "evil" and vowed a "march for justice."

Rostov-on-Don

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said Saturday his fighters captured the army HQ in Russia's Rostov-on-Don "without firing a single shot" and claimed to have the support of locals.

Why is the country supporting us? Because we’re doing a march of justice and we were targeted, first with artillery, then with helicopters. We didn’t shoot at any draft soldier, didn’t kill a single person on our way. And we’ve made it to Rostov.

We’ve seized the military headquarters without a single shot. People are greeting us with Wagner Group flags and complimenting us. The shops are giving us food for free.

Maria Romanenko: Prigozhin also said that they’re receiving many letters of gratitude — presumably, all from Rostov region. He posted a photo of one of them.

"Rostovites say that the Taganrog exit from Rostov is also closed and even mined." Also ferry services departing from Taganrog to occupied Crimea have stopped working—blocking the penninsula’s supply lines. This operation was very well planned, and the Wagnerites are fortifying Rostov-on-Don.

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, on Telegram:

The rebellion is a thoughtful and planned operation, the purpose of which is to seize power in the country;

◾️If the nuclear arsenal of the Russian Federation is "under the control of bandits", the whole world will be on the verge of destruction;

◾️Medvedev did not rule out that foreign specialists and persons who served in the elite units of the RF Armed Forces took part in the preparation of the rebellion;

◾️Russia will not allow the rebellion to reach the state transfer and the global crisis;

◾️The leadership of the Russian Federation will not allow crazy criminals and their fans to seize power in the country;

◾️Speculations about the Ministry of Defense not fulfilling its obligations and "strikes" on the rear units of the PMC "Wagner" do not stand up to criticism.

Who are the Wagnerite commanders?

• GRU Col. Konstantin Pikalov, "Mazai," command Utkin-level

• Maj. Aleksandr Kuznetsov, "Ratibor" - was one the key people in the Battle of Bakhmut, active

• "Zombi" - name unknown, long track record, active

• "Mekhan" - name unknown, long track record, active

• "Salem" - name unknow, long track record, active

• "Sultan" - name unknown, status unknown

• "Zloj" - name unknown, status unknown

• Aik Gasparyan, "Abrek" - less experienced than others, currently inactive

Wagner convoy headed for Moscow is led by senior commander Dmitry Utkin. The forces plans to take up positions in a "built-up area", a source close to the separatist leadership in Donetsk says - Reuters

Wagnerites on their way to Moscow

Rob Lee: Video from a Russian channel of a Wagner column reportedly in Voronezh oblast. The convoy includes a Z-STS and four Chekan MRAPs.

Looks like they stopped for coffee on the way to Voronezh.

The moment that a Russian missile strike hit the Wagner column in the morning.

The Wagner Group just shot down another Russian helicopter. 7 Russian planes and helicopters have been shot down today.

Prigozhin is accused of having a large stash of cash in his headquarters in St Petersburg. In a WSJ exposè about Wagner and its international reach, the investigators mentioned that Prigozhin kept large amounts of cash to pay staff and for other purposes. To this accusation, Prigozhin said:

"Not one GAZelle in my possession was found, but one GAZelle and two buses, which contained money intended for salaries, compensation "Cargo 200" and other issues. Wagner PMC lives for 10 years using only cash, as it is written in the contract. When we worked in Africa, Ukraine and other countries, scaring America, it satisfied everyone, and now they come to us with searches. It's all right, the cash was indeed found".

Prigozhin doesn't have enough money to buy loyalties of critical people, unless such people "incited" Prigozhin to rebel in the first place. It is peculiar that in public statements Prigozhin does not call out Putin - he is still verbally attacking only Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Russian penal unit "Storm Z" established by the Ministry of Defence published a video of support for Prigozhin and said they are ready to come to his side. Storm Z is composed of inmates conscripted by force from Russian prisons, after the MoD prohibited Prigozhin to recruit.

How many troops does Wagner have?

The group is estimated to have around 25,000 soldiers, a figure used by Prigozhin on Friday. In January, the UK Ministry of Defence estimated the Wagner Group commanded a peak of 50,000 troops - however around 20,000 of them have reportedly been killed while fighting in Ukraine.

It is believed that the Wagnerites are on their way to Moscow with 5,000 troops.

The Russian armed forces currently have 130,000 troops along the front in Ukraine, and the Russians claim they have 800,000 in reserves.

UK Defense Ministry: Loyalty of Russian security forces 'key factor' to how Prigozhin's 'rebellion' plays out. The outcome of the Wagner mercenary group’s armed rebellion will partly depend on the Russian National Guard and other security forces’ loyalty to the state, the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote in its intelligence update on June 24.

Putin’s friends

The Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO, refuses to support Putin. According to Kazakh channels, Putin called the CSTO members - President Lukashenko of Belarus and President Tokayev of Kazakhstan. Tokayev refused to support Putin. The Kazakh president said that Prigozhin's rebellion was an internal matter in Russia. Lukashenko is currently in Turkey.

Prigozhin denies reports he agreed to a deal brokered by Lukashenko, says negotiations failed.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Today, I addressed the Belarusian military & officials. We must not allow our country to be dragged into Russia's war. It is crucial that we ensure all Russian troops exit Belarus & that we close our border with Russia. We must defend our sovereignty & protect our people.

What’s happening in Moscow

Reports that there is fighting reported is Sepukhovo, that's Moscow suburbs.

Message from Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin on Telegram

Dear citizens, a counter-terrorist operation regime has been declared in Moscow. The situation is difficult.

In order to minimize risks, I, within the framework of the operational headquarters, decided to declare Monday a non-working day - with the exception of authorities and enterprises of a continuous cycle, the military-industrial complex, and city services.

I ask you to refrain from traveling around the city as much as possible. It is possible to block traffic in certain blocks and on certain roads.

Inform 112 about emergencies and incidents in a timely manner. City services are on high alert.

BBC reports that the Moscow region has suspended all mass outdoor events until 1 July, the authorities announced. It follows the mayor telling everyone to refrain from travelling around the city.

At least six planes belonging to top Russian officials and businessmen have left Moscow amid the rebellion launched by Wagner mercenaries, Russia's Vazhnye Isorii investigative journalism project reported on June 24, citing data from the Flightradar24 flight tracking site.

There have been numerous reports that Putin’s presidential plane took off from Moscow Vnukovo Airport at 2:16PM Moscow time (12:16PM BST) and then headed north-west. According to data from the FlightRadar tracking website, the plane reached the Tver area - about 180km from Moscow and where Putin has a residence – before disappearing from the system.

It has not been possible to confirm whether Putin was on the plane and Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov has told news agency TASS the president is “working in the Kremlin”. Leonid Nevzlin claims that “His closest friends and associates also flew there. The dictator is in a panic. Additional troops advanced towards Valdai to protect it.”

There are also reports that Belarusian dictator Lukashenko got his family out of Belarus. Dmitry Medvedev is rumoured to have left Moscow for Valdai.

Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev is on a visit to Kazakhstan, Liter.kz reports with reference to RIA Novosti . Patrushev is taking part in events that will discuss the security of the states of Central Asia and Russia.

Russians have bought up tickets for direct flights from Moscow to Instanbul, Astana and Tbilisi. There are only a few tickets left with one or two transfers. And a direct flight to Yerevan will cost 198,000 rubles (usually it costs about 10 thousand rubles).

14:30 CET: Rybar reports that Wagner forces reached Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, roughly 350km from Moscow. Rybar claims that the Wagner column includes anywhere from 150-400 pieces of equipment/vehicles. The governor of Russia’s Lipetsk province says the Wagner mercenary group has entered the region and had started to appear during the night, AP reports.

Authorities “are taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of the population. The situation is under control,” the governor, Igor Artamonov, said on Telegram. He did not give details about the Wagner presence.

Moscow residents reportedly started receiving phone calls from, allegedly, Wagner PMC - they are invited to "support Wagnerites and come out into the streets" - Russian media.

Wagner in Rostov

Ramzan Kadyrov has sent his men to Rostov-on-Don to fight the Wagnerites.

Luke Harding: Ramzan Kadyrov's bouyed up Chechen troops on their way to Rostov, shouting Allu Akhbar and Akhmat Sila - "Akhmat is our strength." A clash with Wagner looms. Another incendiary element in an already crazy day.

The Wagnerites are waiting for them if they ever get out of the traffic jam.

TASS: An attempt at an armed rebellion is the most terrible crime that cannot be justified by any past merit, Naryshkin said. He said the prison riot was a few inmates banging their cups. Ionov- Public Monitoring Comm went to the pre-trial detention center for verification.

Wagnerites ploughing through onto Moscow: “They were apparently trying to close off the road to Moscow … they fucked them up, moved the police aside & the column continued on.”

The governor of the Kaluga region, which borders the federal area of the city of Moscow, has said that movement on the region's roads will be restricted in the areas bordering several nearby regions Tula, Bryansk, Oryol and Smolensk regions. "Please refrain from traveling by private vehicle on these roads unless absolutely necessary," Vladislav Shapsha said on Telegram.

The world is watching

Latvia - which saw an influx of Russians fleeing when the war in Ukraine began last year - has sealed its border with Russia. In a tweet, the Foreign Minister said entry for anyone leaving "due to current events" would not be considered for entry.

Estonia too has said it is beefing up security along its border, with Prime Minister Kaja Kallas adding that she was in “close touch” with her Latvian, Lithuanian and Finnish counterparts.

Many other countries - including Poland, the UK and the US - have also said they're closely monitoring the situation.

US president Joe Biden has spoken with the leaders of France, Germany and the UK on Saturday as mutinous Russian mercenaries barrelled towards Moscow after seizing the southern city of Rostov overnight.

“President Biden spoke today with president Emmanuel Macron of France, chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, and prime minister Rishi Sunak of the United Kingdom. The leaders discussed the situation in Russia. They also affirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine,” a White House readout said.

President Zelensky: We all remember how the head of Russia threatened the world in 2021. He had some ultimatums, he was trying to show a kind of strength...

The year 2022 showed that he confused – confused his illusions and the lies he was fed with strength. They in the Kremlin are capable of resorting to any terror, capable of resorting to any stupidity, but they cannot provide even one percent of the necessary control. And they are the problem.

In one day, they lost several of their million-plus cities and showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs and anyone else how easy it is to capture Russian cities and, probably, arsenals with weapons.

Now, it is very important that no one in the world remains silent because of being afraid of this Russian chaos. All the actions of the leaders now can be historic. Every word of journalists is worth its weight in gold. It is necessary to clearly name the source of the problem. And if someone in the world tries to ignore the situation, if someone in the world is under the illusion that the Kremlin is capable of regaining control... this only postpones the problem until the next breakthrough of chaos – even more dangerous.

We all know the solutions.

Ukrainian Situation Report

Ukraine’s defence forces started advancing on several fronts simultaneously in eastern Ukraine on Saturday, 24 June, reports Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister, on Telegram. [They are advancing on] Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka and Kurdiumivka. They are making gains on all fronts." Heavy fighting continues on all fronts in southern Ukraine.

Maliar also said that Russian forces attempted to advance on the Kupiansk, Lyman and Marinka fronts, but were not able to make gains. On the Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk fronts, the Russians conducted airstrikes and deployed artillery.

According to Ukrainian news agencies, Kyiv has liberated territories near the city of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk region, which have been occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014, during the Wagner mutiny in Russia.

Ukrainian forces are practicing removing and overcoming obstacles placed in their way across occupied territory in the south and the east, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliyar said Friday on Telegram.

Update: 3 dead, 8 injured in Russian missile attack in Kyiv. Two civilians were killed in a Russian attack on the capital on June 24 that caused a fire in a residential building, with eight more injured, Head of the Kyiv City Military Administration Serhiy Popko said.

The Russian-held bridge at Chongar that connects southern Ukraine to the annexed Crimean peninsula has been badly damaged and is “unusable” at present, a Moscow-installed official said on Friday, AFP reports.

New Statesman: Budanov says Russia's plan to sabotage Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been 'drafted and approved'. In an interview for the New Statesman, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia had completed preparations for an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Kyiv able to fulfill rest of EU's candidate criteria by October. Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna predicts that Kyiv should be able to implement the remaining requirements to launch EU accession talks by October. According to the European Commission's interim assessment, Ukraine has fully completed two out of seven steps.

Representatives of the Foreign and Defense Ministries of the "nuclear five" countries (USA, Russia, Great Britain, France and China) held a meeting in Cairo on Jun 13 and 14, as reported on the website of the US State Department. The State Department said in a statement that "experts from the relevant foreign and defense departments discussed strategic risk reduction, as well as nuclear doctrines and policies [in the nuclear field]." 

Defence One: Ukraine's NATO-trained brigades have finally entered the fight against Russian forces in occupied territory, the New York Times reported Friday, citing U.S. officials. That includes about 36,000 troops using U.S.-provided equipment like Bradley Fighting Vehicles as well as German tanks and more. 

"The bulk of the nine Ukrainian brigades has yet to be committed to the fight, but the vanguard of that main assault force is already making its mark," the Times's Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt write. 

Restoration of asset declarations must be next step in Ukraine's EU path. Head of the European Union Delegation to Ukraine Matti Maasikas said Ukraine must restore the online asset declarations for government officials. The statement comes after the European Commission ruled that Ukraine completed only two of the seven requirements needed for Ukraine to start accession talks.

The memes begin