Jun 7: E-Stories

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Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

BBC News: EU Parliamentary Elections this weekend, but the Dutch have already voted. Dutch voters have begun four days of voting across the European Union, with exit polls suggesting a really tight race between a left-green alliance and the party of anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders.

The narrative being widely touted in the European press is that the populist or far-right parties will dominate this election. The broadcaster NOS has published an exit poll showing the Green-Left-Labour alliance with a narrow lead over the far-right Freedom party (PVV). Geert Wilders’ PVV is projected to take 7 seats, compared to one seat in the last European election, according to the poll.

Ireland will be voting today, and they will send 14 MEPs to Europe, accounting for 2% of the 720-seat chamber. Voters will also fill 949 city and county council seats in 31 local government authorities and choose a mayor for Limerick. Czechia is also voting today and tomorrow.

Dear Readers,

I’ll be heading to my polling station in Siena tomorrow. E-Stories will be providing information from various outlets on the results.

The election campaign in Italy was absolutely disappointing and unnerving. With the exception of one, all other parties courted the ‘fear’ vote and gave full expression to their extremist factions. The political polarisation in Italy is stunning, although insignificant in the grand scheme of things. It does, however, make a great case study for those who are interested in seeing how Russian political warfare operates with impunity in Europe.

The Times: Italian candidates chase votes with blood oaths and superheroes

Salvini backers are accusing the EU of trying to force Europeans to eat crickets instead of traditional Italian fare, and he has used images of the French footballer Zinedine Zidane headbutting an Italian player in 2006 over the slogan “Less Europe”.

During a rally, Pescara councillor candidate Michele Calvani rolled up his shirt sleeve, pulled out a knife, slashed his arm and took a blood oath. The candidate withdrew his candidacy due to the pressure of his party. I wasn’t kidding on how BAD this election campaign season has been.

Just a reminder from D-Day 80th Anniversary celebrations yesterday before the vote: Children from all around the continent join the French Army Choir to sing "Ode to Joy" on Omaha Beach.

Stories we’re following…

Russian attacks on Nikopol district injure 2 women. Russian attacks against the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight on June 7 injured two women aged 61 and 70, Governor Serhii Lysak said.

Russia launches missile attacks on Ukraine, targets western oblasts. Russian forces launched a missile attack on Ukraine overnight on June 7, primarily targeting the country's western oblasts. The infograph shows the trajectories of Russian missiles for the night attacks.

The head of the Kyiv regional administration, Ruslan Kravchenko, said that as a result of a Russian attack, a fire broke out at an industrial facility in the region. There were no casualties.

Ukrenergo gave notice late on Thursday of power cuts in 12 regions including the capital, Kyiv, and spanning much of Ukraine after consumption limits were breached. It comes amid critical power shortages caused by heavy Russian attacks on power stations and the grid. Ukraine’s electricity grid operator said the cuts would apply to regions including Lviv and Zakarpattia in the west, extending to Kyiv and Kyiv region and to Odesa in the south and Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia farther east. The cuts would end, it said, once set consumption limits were observed.

Culture Ministry: 91 media workers killed by Russian invasion. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has so far killed 91 media workers, the Culture Ministry reported on June 6, a day marked in Ukraine as Journalists' Day.

NYT: 46 Children Were Taken From Ukraine. It was 6 a.m., and she was eager to get to work at Kherson Children’s Home, a state-run foster home for institutionalized children with special needs, where she served as a doctor.

By the time she arrived, the rumble of artillery fired by Russian troops advancing on Kherson City, the region’s capital, was already reverberating through the hallways. The doctor and her fellow caregivers faced a wrenching dilemma: how to protect the dozens of vulnerable children.

They were all infants and toddlers, and some had serious disabilities, such as cerebral palsy. Some had living parents who retained limited custody over them, while others had been removed from troubled homes or abandoned.

One nurse, Kateryna Sirodchuk, said they were afraid that Russian forces would take the children away. “We feared that they could come and take everything under their control,” she said.

And their fears soon came true: On April 25, 2022, Russian officials found the children and took them under their own authority, eventually moving them 180 miles from home — all while filming them for propaganda.

Ukraine charges Russian general over Kakhovka dam destruction. Russian Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, the former commander of the Dnieper group of forces, is suspected of ordering the destruction of the occupied Kakhovka dam last year, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on June 6.

Russian occupied Luhansk was hit by seven missiles on June 7. Since the arrival of artillery, the Ukrainian forces have been striking sensitive targets in Luhansk and Donetsk.

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Combat Situation Update

CDS SitRep general considerations:

• The Ukrainian Defense Forces have been unable to halt the enemy's advance on the Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk directions, unlike on the Kharkiv direction.

• North of Kharkiv, Russian forces are concentrating their main efforts in the areas of Lyptsi and Hlyboke.

• On the Vovchansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are attempting to inflict maximum losses on Russian troops, prevent their advance, and gradually reclaim captured territory.

• Russian forces operating on the Kupyansk direction are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses from two directions.

• Russian troops have intensified attacks in the "Kanal" and "Novyi" neighborhoods and have managed to enter Ukrainian positions in the "Kanal" neighborhood.

• Russian forces lack sufficient boats and boat motors for effective operations in the Dnipro River delta and for evacuating their troops from the islands.

In the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai, drones attacked an electrical substation supplying power to occupied Crimea. Five drones hit a substation in Belyi, damaging a transformer and causing a small fire, with no reported injuries. The same substation was previously attacked on the night of May 30-31, sustaining damage but continuing operations.

Two radar stations were damaged in a nighttime drone attack in Crimea, resulting in one Russian military personnel being injured, according to ASTRA. The radar stations sustained minor damage during the attack on a military unit in the village of Mysove, 50km west of Kerch. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported earlier that 11 drones were shot down over Crimea during the night.

In recent exercises in the Black Sea, Ukrainian amphibious assault groups conducted a series of operations that included landing on an unequipped coastline. The group maneuvered from one coast to another in combat formation, avoiding enemy fire and dangerous areas. The boats and crews practiced complex maneuvering, regrouping, and joint actions at sea.

Noel Report: Ukrainian attacks to drive Russian forces out of Hlyboke have started. Without going into detail about when, and from which direction, the first signs look good. Drone units are actively working on Russians remnants inside the settlement, jointly working with assault units.

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Behind the Lines

Polish border guard dies after being wounded in attack on Belarusian border. The guard was stabbed with a makeshift spear through the border fence between Poland and Belarus on May 28.

Check First: Between May 1 and May 27, 2024, Meta approved at least 275 pro-Russian propaganda ads targeting Italy, Germany, France, and Poland. These ads, lacking the required political disclaimers, reached over three million accounts across these nations.

In cooperation with AI Forensics, we detected pro-Russian ads as part of a larger, troubling trend. They reached a staggering total of 3,075,063 accounts, with 1,441,543 accounts targeted in Italy, 854,052 in France, 429,369 in Germany, and 350,099 in Poland. The timing is particularly critical as the ads appeared just weeks ahead of the EU Parliament elections, potentially influencing public opinion and voter behavior.

This issue arises in the wake of the European Commission’s March 2024 guidelines under the Digital Services Act (DSA), which aim to mitigate online risks associated with elections. These guidelines emphasize the importance of robust policies to prevent the misuse of advertising for spreading misinformation and foreign interference. Despite these directives, Meta’s advertising systems appear vulnerable to exploitation, allowing unchecked dissemination of misleading content.

The EU Commission closely following "negative trends" on media freedom in Italy, much like those it previously flagged in countries like Slovakia, the European Union's chief rule-of-law official Věra Jourová said Tuesday.

Her comments, however, put Italy alongside Slovakia on the issue of media freedom, where Robert Fico’s government has been dialing up attacks on the press.

"Specifically on the situation of media in Italy, but also elsewhere in Slovakia and some other states, [we] are monitoring different negative trends," said Jourová in a briefing with journalists in Brussels.

Press associations have warned that government interference and lawsuits against journalists have grown in Italy since Meloni came to power with the Brothers of Italy in 2022.  Journalists at Italy’s state broadcaster RAI went on strike in May to protect an attempt to "turn RAI into a mouthpiece for the government.”

DFRLab: Tailored Russian disinformation targets Polish farm protests. Kremlin-linked sources are attempting to sow division between Poland and Ukraine via a multi-prong campaign that exploits ongoing protests by Polish farmers. Russian government-backed media outlets are spreading a narrative that claims Poland has opened a “second front” against Ukraine.  

Russian proxy in Ukraine claims occupied territories may be incorporated into new Russian federal district. Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and subsequently expanded its unlawful seizure of the Ukrainian oblasts of Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia after the full-scale war in 2022.

Politico: Germany is opposing European Union efforts to close a loophole that allows high-end goods, including luxury cars, to reach Russia via Belarus, four EU diplomats told Politico. This could further delay the 14th EU Sanctions package. Some EU members say the package could be released on time for the G7 meeting in Italy in July if Belarus and Russia sanctions could be dealt with separately. That would allow the EU to move ahead with major gas sanctions while kicking the fight over sanctions on Belarus down the road.

German media: Zelensky to visit Berlin next week, speak in Bundestag. President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Berlin on June 11, where he is expected to speak in the Bundestag for the first time in person, German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported on June 7, citing its sources.

Police in Moscow arrested a French national on Thursday on suspicion of collecting information about Russian military activities. The Switzerland-based Center for Humanitarian Dialog later identified the man as its adviser, Laurent Vinatier. "We are working to get more details of the circumstances and to secure Laurent's release," a spokesman told reporters.

The man was treated by a fire brigade on Monday evening "when he suffered serious burns following an explosion," said the prosecutors. "Products and materials intended to manufacture explosive devices" have been found at his hotel room, the PNAT said. "One of these devices had exploded," the prosecutors said.

On Tuesday, the prosecutor's office opened an investigation into suspected plans to commit a violent act. In an indication of the seriousness of the case, the man is being held by France's domestic intelligence agency, the General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI), rather than the regular police. The case has also been immediately placed in the hands of specialist anti-terror prosecutors rather than criminal prosecutors.

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Russian information campaign targeting France

An advertisement has been posted at a bus stop near the French embassy in Moscow calling on French soldiers fighting in Ukraine to surrender. “Frenchmen, don’t repeat your ancestors’ mistakes — their fate is well known,” followed by a photo of Nazi collaborator and commander of a French unit of the Waffen-SS, Edgar Puaud, with the caption: “These Frenchmen already fought against Russia on the side of the Nazis.” Meanwhile, officials in Paris reportedly suspect Russian intelligence agents of involvement in the fake coffins placed near the Eiffel Tower with the inscription: “French Soldiers of Ukraine.”

This news is correlated with a disinformation campaign the Russians are currently waging against the French. The Russian Embassy in South Africa (always very active in this regard) posted a video claiming that the Russians had arrested a French soldier in Ukraine.

In response the French Embassy in South Africa posted in a masterclass on how to fight disinformation warfare:

Colleagues, you have been spreading fake news for some time and we are now used to this rather undiplomatic practice. However, this one is particularly ridiculous. We suggest your actors work on their accent with some French classes at Alliance française: https://alliance.org.za

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Meanwhile in Russia

Putin threatens to supply weapons to third parties to strike Western targets. "Secondly, we think that if somebody considers supplying such weapons to a combat zone to strike our territory... then why don't we have the right to supply comparable weapons to regions where they could be used to strike sensitive targets of countries that do this to Russia?" Vladimir Putin said.

In its summary of SPIEF’s main economic session, journalists at The Bell highlighted Maxim Oreshkin’s comment that Russia’s sovereignty relies on three pillars: (1) modernizing its armed forces, (2) education and culture, and (3) the economy in terms of technology, the workforce, and finances. When asked why he prioritized the economy last on his list, Oreshkin said, “There can be no successful economy without a successful army.”

Journalist Farida Rustamova notes that two of Vladimir Putin’s daughters are listed as speakers at this year’s St. Petersburg Economic Forum: Maria Vorontsova, a member of the Russian Association for the Promotion of Science Presidium, and Katerina Tikhonova, the CEO of Innopraktika.

Russian economist speaking frankly? “I’m observing a stunning picture of the suicide of the Russian economy.” - Igor Lipsits, an expert on the Russian economy.

This is the narrative that the Russians are reserving for Western audiences: “We are suffering and everything is going to pots. It’s not our fault but Putin and the regime. Please help us get out of this mess.” This will be used by Russian proxies to solicit Western governments to drop sanctions against Russia, and return to normality ‘after’ the war. Listener be warned.

Gabon has become Russia’s supplier for spare parts: In 2023, aircraft parts worth almost $2 billion were imported into Russia from abroad, and most of them—almost $1.5 billion—were allegedly sent from Gabon by a single local company, according to customs data of the Russian Federation, which was reviewed by The Moscow Times. The company listed in the Russian customs declarations probably does not exist at all - there is no data about it in the local database of legal entities in Gabon. At the same time, the amount of imports exceeds half of Gabon’s annual budget. Russian companies for which spare parts were imported from Africa have signs of shell companies. 

The head coach of St. Petersburg’s SKA hockey team, Roman Rotenberg, declared on Thursday that Russia must battle the effects of “privileged kids” using money to advance in sports. (Rotenberg is the son of billionaire Boris Rotenberg and the nephew of billionaire Arkady Rotenberg.)

Russian warships heading for Caribbean exercises, US not notified, AP reports. Russian warships are being tracked on their way to the Caribbean, U.S. officials said on June 5, adding they had not been notified in advance by the Kremlin of the military activity.

Chris Burgess for Clearance Jobs: The Chinese espionage machine is alive and well. Based on two recent cases, the U.S. counterintelligence apparatus is equally alive and well. In early-March 2024 we saw the arrest of a U.S. Army soldier, Korbein Schultz, at Fort Campbell, for providing information to a foreign nation (China). In late-May we saw Alexander Yuk Ching Ma, enter a guilty plea to the 2020 indictment of having been a part of a conspiracy to commit espionage. [continue]

Extrema Ratio: Russia's Rosatom signs agreement with Chinese shipping company on Arctic route.

Russia's state nuclear agency Rosatom has signed a memorandum of understanding with a Chinese shipping company to establish a year-round container line between the two countries via the Arctic's Northern Sea Route (NSR), it said on Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has talked up prospects for the Arctic corridor as Russia shifts its trade eastwards in response to Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine. Rosatom said the agreement with China's Hainan Yangpu NewNew Shipping Co. Ltd would establish a joint venture for the design and construction of container ships and the shared operation of the shipping line.

The agreement was signed on Thursday at Russia's annual economic forum in St Petersburg - an event that once drew top Western banks and company executives but whose foreign participants now largely hail from countries still friendly with Russia, including China.

Vladimir Panov, Rosatom's special representative for Arctic development, said 12 voyages were planned for 2024 and the companies hope to ultimately ship up to 50 million tonnes of cargo each year. "Our main task is to build up to five Arctic-class vessels, which will allow the company to operate on the Northern Sea Route year-round," Panov said.

Rosatom launched a joint venture last year with Dubai's DP World to develop container shipping through the Arctic, a route made viable by the melting of Arctic sea ice due to climate change. Panov said Rosatom had transported over 2 million tonnes of transit cargoes in 2023, a "record" amount. "This year, we are now working with shippers, we can talk about a new record - we plan to transport up 3 million tonnes," Panov said.

Chief executive and chairman of DP World Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said the NSR has proved to be a "game-changer" for shipping, with supply chain issues and geopolitical instability showing that alternatives to traditional shipping routes were needed. "But you cannot sell something you don't have," bin Sulayem said. "The important thing is that this has to start."

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Allied Support

FT: EU pushing to start Ukraine accession talks before Hungary assumes bloc presidency in weeks. The European Commission will recommend the EU start accession talks with Ukraine before July, when Hungary will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, the Financial Times (FT) reported on June 7.

Up-date: European Commission formally recommends EU Council to start membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova - statement.

Taiwan prohibits export of essential component for shells to Russia and Belarus. Taiwan's Ministry of Economy has decided to expand sanctions against Russia and Belarus by prohibiting the export of nitrocellulose, a crucial component used in projectile production.

The Bundestag Budget Committee approved the purchase of additional 155-mm artillery shells worth €880 million. The procurement project will enable continued support for Ukraine with urgently needed shells, but will also enable to replenish German stocks.

Parliament ratifies EU Ukraine Facility framework agreement, Ukraine to receive more than $17 billion in 2024. Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, ratified on June 6 the terms for which Kyiv will receive 50 billion euros ($54 billion) in macro-finance support from the EU until 2027, known as the Ukraine Facility.

The US will provide Ukraine with another package of military aid worth $225 million. It will include: ammunition for HIMARS, missiles for the HAWK air defense system, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, artillery shells, 155-mm howitzers and mortar systems, armored vehicles, trailers, patrol boats and others.

Le Figaro: France to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine, Macron announces. Speaking to French TV after the end of the 80th anniversary of D-Day commemorations in Normandy, the French president also said his country would train Ukrainian pilots.

France would also equip and train an entire brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers, Macron said. Amid speculation that Macron could swiftly announce the sending of French instructors to Ukraine, the president said France and its allies would come together and decide, but he emphasised that he did not believe any such move by Paris would be “escalatory”.

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US imposes 'first tranche' of sanctions against Georgian officials. The initial round of sanctions entailed travel bans on "dozens" of individuals, including members of the ruling Georgian Dream party, other members of parliament, law enforcement, and other private citizens, said U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.

Alex Raufoglu—Spokesman for the Department of State: "Georgia can make its own decisions about how it wants to move forward. We can make our own decisions about how we want to move forward.  But we are not going to continue to allow people to come into the United States... We will continue to review the financial assistance that we give to Georgia, and that all is potentially at jeopardy if Georgia is not pursuing policies that are in line with the interests and values we have seen expressed here to date"

DFRLab: Doppelganger targets US audience on X to discredit Georgian protests. The DFRLab identified nearly forty suspicious X accounts partaking in the latest iteration of the Russian operation commonly known as Doppelganger. The network of accounts targeted Americans with content that sought to discredit widespread protests in Georgia.

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Associated Press: What to know about Russia’s growing footprint in Africa

Russia is displacing traditional allies like France and the United States and is emerging as the security partner of choice for a growing number of African governments as it seeks to grow its influence in the restive, mineral-rich section of the continent. Read more.

• Moscow has aggressively expanded its military cooperation with the nations by using the private security company Wagner and its likely successor, Africa Corps, with Russian mercenaries protecting African leaders and helping states fight extremists. Russia offers security assistance without interfering in politics, making it an appealing partner in places like Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, all ruled by military juntas that seized power in recent years.
  

• Russia has taken advantage of political unrest and discontent in coup-hit nations, capitalizing on popular frustration and anger with former colonial power France. Military coups have ousted governments seen as close to the West and doing little to alleviate grinding poverty and unemployment.
  

• In return, Moscow seeks access to minerals and other contracts as well as political support, or at least neutrality, over its invasion of Ukraine. Africa is rich in minerals, oil, and other resources, which are increasingly central to economic and national security. African nations also make up the largest voting bloc at the United Nations and have been more divided than any other group on resolutions criticizing Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

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Elections in India: Narendra Modi is facing the first test of coalition politics after losing his outright majority in the Indian election, with smaller coalition allies emerging as powerful kingmakers in the formation of the government.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) won the most seats in the election results declared on Tuesday, but not enough to pass the 272 parliamentary majority mark, forcing it to rely on coalition partners to return to power.

The Guardian: In his first campaign rally after being convicted of 34 felonies, former president Donald Trump recalled how he just went through a “rigged” trial with a “highly conflicted” judge despite there being “no crime”.

“Those appellate courts have to step up and straighten things out, or we’re not going to have a country any longer,” he said.

The former president also took aim at Joe Biden’s recent executive order limiting asylum seekers, which Trump called “bullshit” and said he would rescind on his first day in office, should he win. He condemned Biden on immigration and ran down Trump administration border policies, saying his Democratic rival could solve immigration problems by reinstating all of his old policies.

“Arizona is being turned into a dumping ground for the dungeons of the third world,” Trump said.

SpyTalk: After weathering criticism over its reliance on a gusher of Saudi cash, Jared Kushner’s investment fund made its first big splash last month when it announced it had signed a $500 million deal with the Serbian government to develop a high end real estate project in downtown Belgrade on the site of a bombed down army building destroyed during the 1999 Kosovo war.

But the fine print of the deal includes a commitment that seems destined to stir up even more international controversy: a pledge by Kushner’s firm, Affinity Partners, to construct a “memorial dedicated to all the victims of NATO aggression”— an allusion to the U.S.-backed bombing campaign that brought the Serbian government of Slobodan Milosevic to its knees a quarter century ago in response to its relentless campaign of repression and savage massacres of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.

Among those exercised over the Kushner deal is retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander during the war.

While he has no objection to a U.S. firm investing in Serbia, the planned revisionist memorial—officially proclaiming America’s adversary in the war to have been a victim of  “aggression”— “is worse than a reversal” of U.S. policies in the region, said Clark in an interview with SpyTalk. “It’s a betrayal of the United States, its policies and the brave diplomats and airmen who did what they could to stop Serb ethnic cleansing.” 

They were discussing Silicon Valley turning on Biden and finally got to who is hosting this 300k per person event. Might as well be the Kremlin doing this. No difference and zero mention by CNN on the background of who these people are.

We are facing the biggest threat to democracy and the media must do better before they help lead us into authoritarianism.

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D-Day Scandal: Rishi Sunak has issued an apology on social media for not staying longer at D-day events in France yesterday. The prime minister, having left Normandy in order to instead pre-record an election interview with ITV, said “for the commemorations to be overshadowed by politics”. ITV says the timing of the the interview he took part in was the Conservative Party’s suggestion - meaning this is a story that could have been foreseen and avoided.

This in the middle of a general election campaign: Sunak has managed to give his competitors something they can chew on for a while.

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